An Overview of USAID / FEWSAn Overview of USAID / FEWS--NET NET Activities at CPCActivities at CPC

Nick NovellaNick Novella1212, , Wassila Thiaw2, Tom Di Liberto12, Vadlamani Kumar12

Nicholas.Novella@noaa.gov

• 1Wyle Information Systems, CPC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA11

• Climate Prediction Center NCEP/NWS/NOAA22

2Climate Predictions Applications Science Workshop (CPAS)

March 1-4, 2011Des Moines, IA

IntroductionIntroduction

Program is responsible for providing weather and climate related information to users specializing in food security / famine early warning systems.• Generate a large suite of operational products, disseminate data / information to

assist international agencies, as it applies to food security in underdeveloped countries.

Collaborations are performed with USAID, FEWS-NET, USGS, NASA, FAO, Chemonics on a regular basis.• Constant interaction allows a more thorough and accurate analysis of conditions.• Make use of remote sensing, model guidance, derived applications.

Since 1994, the program has expanded from famine detection in West Africa to now include 20 countries of African continent, Central America, Hispaniola, Southeastern Asia, Afghanistan, and Yemen. • Closely linked with CPC’s Africa / International Desk• Global monitoring fits within CPC’s mission.

CPC FEWS-NET Site and Team (2011)

• Team LeaderWassila Thiaw

• Computer SupportVladamani Kumar

• Hazard Assessments Meteorologists

Nick NovellaTom Di LibertoEndalkachew BekeleBrad Pugh (JAWF)

IntroductionIntroduction

www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/fews/

Operational ProductsOperational Products

The cornerstone product of the program at CPC has been the provision of high resolution, satellite-derived precipitation estimates covering regions of interest.

The RFE ( RainFall Estimator) was initially written and deployed as an operational product in 1998 by CPC/NOAA.• As with all satellite derived rainfall estimator algorithms, it relies on a designated set of

inputs that measure/observe rainfall for a more complete spatial and temporal coverage of the globe.

• 0.1° resolution is unique for FEWS-NET• RFE algorithm has undergone advancements to improve upon estimation accuracy and other

technical weaknesses. Version 2.0 became operational in January, 2001 has been generated daily.

Merges available in-situ gauge and remotely-sensed data using the methods of Xie and Arkin (1997). • GTS gauges• IR (GPI)• SSM/I (PMS)• AMSU-B (PWS)

Rainfall Estimator: (RFE)Rainfall Estimator: (RFE)

Operational ProductsOperational Products

Domains: Africa, Afghanistan, SE Asia (with sub-domains, and point time series) Spatial Resolution: Regularly gridded, 0.1° Temporal Resolution: Daily (06Z-06Z), and aggregated to Weekly, Dekadal, Monthly, and

Seasonal timescales for respective regions

Rainfall Estimator: (RFE)Rainfall Estimator: (RFE)

Operational ProductsOperational Products

To compliment the RFE, the Africa Rainfall Climatology (ARC) product was developed as a climatological tool to generate anomaly fields for analysis.

The ARC / CSAR share the same algorithm methods and resolution specs as the RFE, but uses a subset of the inputs with decreased IR sampling to enable a long-term record. • GTS and IR inputs were selected as the framework for the ARC dataset, as these records exhibit

homogeneity over the historical record (Currently, 1995-present).

The exclusion of PM inputs tends to underestimate locally intense rainfall, however it performs well capturing the large-scale distribution of precipitation. • ARC product maintains high correlation with in-situ measurements

Climatology: (ARC) and (CSAR)Climatology: (ARC) and (CSAR)

Operational ProductsOperational Products

InterInter--Tropical Front (ITF)Tropical Front (ITF) ITF = the northern “surface limit” to delineate synoptic areas of convergence associated

with rainfall/moisture of summer monsoon (Dekadal) Instrumental for understanding character/extent of summer rain seasons (also helps

related to amplitude of E Waves, and TC formation) Focuses more on subjective analysis.

Operational ProductsOperational Products

Darfur AnalysisDarfur Analysis Integrates ITF and GFS information as guidance for IDP and refugee migration and

stability (weekly) Makes use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS)

Operational ProductsOperational Products

Tropical Cyclone MonitoringTropical Cyclone Monitoring

Operational ProductsOperational Products

Global Monitoring:Global Monitoring:

Observations Forecasts

Other than RFE/ARC, we host a large suite of atmospheric /oceanic products tailored to FEWS-NET regions over various timescales.

Operational ProductsOperational Products

Weekly/Seasonal Outlooks:Weekly/Seasonal Outlooks: Blends real-time model guidance, natural climate modes and other anomalous

features in ocean/atmosphere.

Operational ProductsOperational Products

Together, all information is integrated to generate the principal operational product for FEWS-NET.• This product serves as weekly input to food security decision-making at USAID• Our audience is global.

For the Africa, CA & Hispaniola, and Afghanistan weekly weather hazards, our responsibilities:

• Data Acquisition and Analysis: Totals / Anomalies / Period Comparisons / Evolution

• Field Reports (in-situ) information and feedback / Media

• Prognostics / Model Guidance : Validation, Consensus, Inter-comparison

Hazards Draft Release (2 or more each week)

• Begin Analysis Monday, Final Draft released every Tuesday and Wednesday

• Hazard Maps (polygons) are generated using GIS shapefile data

Weather Briefings ( every Tuesday at 12-Noon EST)

• Review previous, current, and future state of atmospheric, oceanic, cropping conditions relevant to FEWS-NET activities.

Weekly Weather Hazard AssessmentsWeekly Weather Hazard Assessments

Operational ProductsOperational Products

Weekly Weather Hazard AssessmentsWeekly Weather Hazard Assessments

Operational ProductsOperational Products

Weekly Weather Hazard AssessmentsWeekly Weather Hazard Assessments

Operational ProductsOperational Products

DisseminationDissemination

All FEWS products and data are available via http:// and CPC’s ftp server: ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/fews/

• Each subdirectory contains documentation with necessary metadata (i.e. grid dimensions, byte ordering, format specs, etc.) for GrADS, GIS, MATLAB, and other geographical display systems

The NEW CPC - International Web Page- Provides a unified “one-stop shop” for all of CPC FEWS-NET products and international-related activities.

Operational ProductsOperational Products

Research / DevelopmentResearch / Development

Validation and Inter-comparison of satellite rainfall estimates• Most recently, the RFE and ARC were found to outperform other rainfall estimators in the

western Sahel.• Work is underway to highlight real-time performance issues/biases with TRMM/CMORPH

over Central America and Hispaniola. • More independent gauge data is needed achieved with collaborations with Africa Desk

Reconstruction of the African Rainfall Climatology: (1983-present)• The acquisition of historical IR data (EUMETSAT) and gauge data (UCAR) permitted CPC

to extend the existing ARC dataset and additional 12 years (1983 -1994).

• A longer data record at a high resolution is expected to :

Promote services with other environmental-related applications (e.g. drought/flood monitoring, crop model development, societal indicators, etc.)

Increase statistical stability for climate trend analysis Provide more insight to the character of interannual and intraseasonal variability

of rainfall over remote regions of Africa.

Questions / CommentsQuestions / Comments

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