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110 ANNEXURE A Table-5.1.1.1: Results of Regression of Daily CSSD and CSAD using Dummy Variables Coefficients Coefficients Model Unstandardized Coefficients t-statistic Sig. Model Unstandardized Coefficients t-statistic Sig. Beta Beta (Constant) 1.92 78.91 0.00*** (Constant) 1.51 87.16 0.00*** D1 0.72 11.03 0.00*** Rm -0.01 -1.38 0.16 D2 0.88 12.31 0.00*** Rm square 0.02 17.18 0.00*** a Dependent Variable: CSSD a Dependent Variable: CSAD *** Significant at the 1percent level Table 5.1.1.2: Results of regression of daily CSAD during periods of market stress Coefficients (Bull Phase) Coefficients (Bear Phase) Model Unstandardized Coefficients t- statistic Sig. Model Unstandardized Coefficients t-statistic Sig. Beta Beta (Constant) 0.86 3.99 0.00*** (Constant) 1.14 4.06 0.00*** Rm 0.42 5.37 0.00*** Rm 0.27 2.14 0.03** Rm square -0.01 -2.47 0.02** Rm square 0.00 -0.03 0.97 a Dependent Variable: CSAD up a. Dependent Variable: CSAD down ** Significant at the 5percent level *** Significant at the 1percent level Table 5.1.2.1: GJR GARCH estimates: The GARCH effect and leverage impact on dependent series (includes log values of daily Nifty 50 returns and closing option prices) Parameters Daily Nifty 50 returns Out of the money put options In-the-money- put options Out-of-the money- call options In-the-money call options ω 0 0.72 0.64*** 0.10*** 0.05*** β 0.98*** 0.76*** 0.78*** 0.83*** 0.56*** α 0.01 0.17* 0.07* 0.18*** 0.39*** γ 0.01 0.01 0.13*** -0.02 0.09** * Significant at the 10percent level ** Significant at the 5percent level
Transcript
Page 1: ANNEXURE A - shodhganga.inflibnet.ac.inshodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in/bitstream/10603/44601/16/16_annexures .pdf · Infosys Ltd. Disposition effect present, Infrastructure Development

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ANNEXURE A

Table-5.1.1.1: Results of Regression of Daily CSSD and CSAD using Dummy Variables

Coefficients Coefficients

Model Unstandardized

Coefficients

t-statistic Sig. Model Unstandardized

Coefficients

t-statistic Sig.

Beta Beta

(Constant) 1.92 78.91 0.00*** (Constant) 1.51 87.16 0.00***

D1 0.72 11.03 0.00*** Rm -0.01 -1.38 0.16

D2 0.88 12.31 0.00*** Rm square 0.02 17.18 0.00***

a Dependent Variable: CSSD a Dependent Variable: CSAD

*** Significant at the 1percent level

Table 5.1.1.2: Results of regression of daily CSAD during periods of market stress

Coefficients (Bull Phase) Coefficients (Bear Phase)

Model Unstandardized

Coefficients

t-

statistic

Sig. Model Unstandardized

Coefficients

t-statistic Sig.

Beta Beta

(Constant) 0.86 3.99 0.00*** (Constant) 1.14 4.06 0.00***

Rm 0.42 5.37 0.00*** Rm 0.27 2.14 0.03**

Rm square -0.01 -2.47 0.02** Rm square 0.00 -0.03 0.97

a Dependent Variable: CSAD up a. Dependent Variable: CSAD down

** Significant at the 5percent level

*** Significant at the 1percent level

Table 5.1.2.1: GJR GARCH estimates: The GARCH effect and leverage impact on dependent

series (includes log values of daily Nifty 50 returns and closing option prices)

Parameters Daily Nifty

50 returns

Out of the money

put options

In-the-money-

put options

Out-of-the money-

call options

In-the-money call

options

ω 0 0.72 0.64*** 0.10*** 0.05***

β 0.98*** 0.76*** 0.78*** 0.83*** 0.56***

α 0.01 0.17* 0.07* 0.18*** 0.39***

γ 0.01 0.01 0.13*** -0.02 0.09**

* Significant at the 10percent level

** Significant at the 5percent level

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*** Significant at the 1percent level

Table 5.1.2.2: Regression results for calculation of θ0 and θ1 (Campbell et al., 1997)

Parameter Estimate Asymptotic Std. Error t-statistic Sig

Log θ0 -3.92*** 0.014 -286.01 0.00

θ12 0.026 *** 0.001 27.23 0.00

θ1 0.038*** 0.005 8.20 0.00

R squared = 0.34

*** Significant at the 1percent level

Table 5.1.2.3: Descriptive statistics of „Pessimism‟14

series. For each option type there is a

separate pessimism series. Here:

Put-out: out-of-the- money put option

Put-in: in-the-money put option

Call-out: out-of-the- money call option

Call-in: in-the-money call option

Pessimism Descriptive Statistics

put-out put-in call-out call-in

Mean -16.24 -16.26 -16.37 -16.40

Standard Error 0.65 0.65 0.66 0.66

Median -15.33 -15.41 -15.48 -15.54

Standard Deviation 14.34 14.35 14.45 14.53

Sample Variance 205.60 205.82 208.66 211.11

Kurtosis -1.81 -1.81 -1.82 -1.82

Skewness -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02

Range 32.93 32.94 33.03 33.26

14 Pessimism series is the measure of pessimism, calculated by taking the difference between the mean

expected return from representative PDF (pr

tE ) and the objective PDF (p

tE ).

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Table 5.1.2.4: One sample t-test to check the significance of „Pessimism‟ series.

One-Sample Test Pessimism

put-out put-in call-out call-in

T -24.86 -24.87 -24.89 -24.78

Df 481 481 481 481

Sig. (2-tailed) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Mean Difference -16.24*** -16.26*** -16.37*** -16.40***

*** Significant at the 1percent level

Table 5.1.2.5: Impact of pessimism in out of the money put options on objective risk premium

Parameter Unstandardized coeff. t-statistic Sig.

(Constant) 0.03*** -8.62 0.00

RP-1 -0.64*** -19.28 0.00

RP-2 -0.35*** -10.51 0.00

Pessimism -0.40*** -17.93 0.00

Adjusted R square 0.60

*** Significant at the 1percent level

Table 5.1.2.6: Impact of pessimism in out of the money put options on representative investors’

risk premium

Parameter Unstandardized coeff. t-statistic Sig.

(Constant) 0.01*** 7.97 0.00

RP-1 -0.62*** -18.51 0.00

RP-2 -0.39*** -11.46 0.00

Pessimism 0.15*** 16.56 0.00

Adjusted R square 0.56

*** Significant at the 1percent level

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Table 5.1.2.7: Impact of pessimism in in the money put options on objective risk premium

Parameter Unstandardized coeff. t-statistic Sig.

(Constant) 0.01*** 4.83 0.00

RP-1 0.01 0.33 0.74

RP-2 0.03 1.83 0.07

Pessimism -0.47*** -68.35 0.00

Adjusted R square 0.93

*** Significant at the 1percent level

Table 5.1.2.8: Impact of pessimism in in the money put options on representative investors’ risk

premium

Parameter Unstandardized coeff. t-statistic Sig.

(Constant) 0.02*** 8.30 0.00

RP-1 -0.60*** -18.20 0.00

RP-2 -0.38*** -11.29 0.00

Pessimism 0.27*** 17.24 0.00

Adjusted R square 0.56

*** Significant at the 1percent level

Table 5.1.2.9: Impact of pessimism in out of the money call options on objective risk premium

Parameter Unstandardized coeff. t-statistic Sig.

(Constant) 0.00 0.00 1.00

RP-1 -0.01 -1.61 0.11

RP-2 -0.01*** -2.58 0.01

Pessimism -0.95*** -131.43 0.00

Adjusted R square 0.98

*** Significant at the 1percent level

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Table 5.1.2.10: Impact of pessimism in out of the money call options on representative

investors’ risk premium

Parameter Unstandardized coeff. t-statistic Sig.

(Constant) -0.01 -0.59 0.55

RP-1 0.30*** 7.04 0.00

RP-2 0.30*** 7.11 0.00

Pessimism 0.03*** 5.80 0.00

Adjusted R square 0.28

*** Significant at the 1percent level

Table 5.1.2.11: Impact of pessimism in in the money call options on objective risk premium

Parameter Unstandardized coeff. t-statistic Sig.

(Constant) -0.01 -1.53 0.13

RP-1 0.01 1.22 0.23

RP-2 0.00 0.44 0.66

Pessimism -0.99*** -215.35 0.00

Adjusted R square 0.99

*** Significant at the 1percent level

Table 5.1.2.12: Impact of pessimism in in the money call options on representative investors’

risk premium

Parameter Unstandardized coeff. t-statistic Sig.

(Constant) 0.00 -0.07 0.95

RP-1 0.67*** 14.60 0.00

RP-2 0.04 0.95 0.35

Pessimism 0.01 1.53 0.13

Adjusted R square 0.49

*** Significant at the 1percent level

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Table 5.1.2.13: Impact of past volatility, past return and past optimism (pessimism) on

pessimism in out- of- the money put options:

Parameter Unstandardized coeff. t-statistic Sig.

(Constant) -0.01 -.23 0.82

Optimismt-1 0.42*** 10.43 0.00

St-1 0.00 -0.29 .77

Lagvolt -1.40*** -5.46 0.00

Adjusted R square 0.27

*** Significant at the 1percent level

Table 5.1.2.14: Impact of past volatility, past return and past optimism (pessimism) on

pessimism in in- the- money put options:

Parameter Unstandardized coeff. t-statistic Sig.

(Constant) 0.00 0.04 0.97

Optimismt-1 0.41*** 10.29 0.00

St-1 0.00 -0.14 0.89

Lagvolt -1.53*** -5.64 0.00

Adjusted R square 0.27

*** Significant at the 1percent level

Table 5.1.2.15: Impact of past volatility, past return and past optimism (pessimism) on

pessimism in out- of- the money call options:

Parameter Unstandardized coeff. t-statistic Sig.

(Constant) 0.01 1.08 0.28

Optimismt-1 -0.44*** -10.65 0.00

St-1 0.00 -0.20 0.98

Lagvolt -0.38 -1.32 0.18

Adjusted R square 0.19

*** Significant at the 1percent level

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Table 5.1.2.16: Impact of past volatility, past return and past optimism (pessimism) on

pessimism in in the money call options:

Parameter Unstandardized coeff. t-statistic Sig.

(Constant) 0.00 -0.02 0.99

Optimismt-1 0.42*** 10.43 0.00

St-1 0.00 -0.05 0.96

Lagvolt -1.51*** -5.43 0.00

Adjusted R square 0.27

*** Significant at the 1percent level

Table 5.1.3.1: Market-wide vector autoregression. Endogenous variables: log market transaction

volume (LOGT) and lagged market return (Rm). Exogenous variable: Market volatility (Vol)

** Significant at the 5percent level

*** Significant at the 1percent level

Rm(-1) Rm(-2) Rm(-3) Rm(-4) Rm(-5) Rm(-6) Rm(-7) Rm(-8) Rm(-9) Rm(-10) VOL

Adj

R-sq

LOGT 0.00 0.01*** 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 2.52 0.63

t-stat [ 0.64] [ 2.71] [ 0.61] [ 0.34] [ 1.32] [ 1.14] [-0.24] [ 1.91] [ 1.06] [ 0.07] [5.29]

Rm 0.02 -0.03 -0.04 -0.03 -0.03 -0.06*** 0.01 0.05** 0.00 0.00

-

15.3*

** 0.02

t-stat [ 0.96] [-1.38] [-1.75] [-1.18] [-1.37] [-2.57] [ 0.32] [ 2.10] [ 0.06] [ 0.01]

[-

5.715.

71]

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Table 5.1.3.2a Companies with significant coefficients for security return and market return

lags. Here the values under „Ri‟ and „Rm‟ indicate the lags with significantly positive or negative

coefficients.

Significant positive Significant negative

Coefficient Coefficient

Company Name Ri Rm Ri Rm Interpretation

A C C Ltd. 7 8,9

Both biases present

Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd.

3,4,5 Overconfidence bias inconclusive

Bharat Petroleum Corpn. Ltd. 1 2

Both biases present

Bharti Airtel Ltd. 5

1

Disposition effect inconclusive

H C L Technologies Ltd. 9

Disposition effect present

Hero Motocorp Ltd. 8

4

Disposition effect present,

overconfidence inconclusive

Hindalco Industries Ltd.

9 7,9

Overconfidence bias present,

disposition effect inconclusive

Hindustan Unilever Ltd.

8

Disposition effect inconclusive

Housing Development Finance

Corpn. Ltd. 7,8

Overconfidence bias present

Infosys Ltd.

10

Disposition effect inconclusive

Infrastructure Development

Finance Co. Ltd. 6,7,8,9, 10

7,8,9,10

Disposition effect present,

overconfidence inconclusive

Jaiprakash Associates Ltd.

8

Overconfidence bias present

Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd. 1

1

Disposition effect present,

overconfidence inconclusive

Larsen & Toubro Ltd.

10

Disposition effect inconclusive

Oil & Natural Gas Corpn. Ltd.

5 1 Both bias inconclusive

Punjab National Bank

2

Overconfidence bias present

Ranbaxy Laboratories Ltd.

5,6

Overconfidence bias present

Reliance Capital Ltd.

2 2,9

Overconfidence bias present,

disposition effect inconclusive

Reliance Communications Ltd. 8,9

Disposition effect present

Reliance Industries Ltd.

8 8

Overconfidence bias present,

disposition effect inconclusive

Reliance Infrastructure Ltd.

8 8

Overconfidence bias present,

disposition effect inconclusive

Sesa Goa Ltd.

2,3,4

Overconfidence bias present

Siemens Ltd.

2

Overconfidence bias present

State Bank Of India

4

Disposition effect inconclusive

Steel Authority Of India Ltd. 8 2

Both biases present

Sterlite Industries (India) Ltd.

2 7

Overconfidence bias present,

disposition effect inconclusive

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Sun Pharmaceutical Ind. Ltd. 6,8 7 Both bias inconclusive

Tata Steel Ltd. 2 9 Overconfidence bias present

Table 5.1.3.2b: Summarized results of overconfidence and the disposition effect bias

Bias Name Companies Total

Firms with Overconfidence Bias

Hindalco Industries Ltd.

12

Housing Development Finance Corpn. Ltd.

Jaiprakash Associates Ltd.

Punjab National Bank

Ranbaxy Laboratories Ltd.

Reliance Capital Ltd.

Reliance Industries Ltd.

Reliance Infrastructure Ltd.

Siemens Ltd.

Sesa Goa Ltd.

Sterlite Industries (India) Ltd.

Tata Steel Ltd.

Firms with the disposition effect

H C L Technologies Ltd.

5

Hero Motocorp Ltd.

IDFC

Reliance Communications Ltd.

Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd.

Firms with both Overconfidence&

The disposition effect

A C C Ltd.

3 Bharat Petroleum Corpn. Ltd.

Steel Authority Of India Ltd. (SAIL)

Total 20

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Table 5.1.3.3: Response of LogT to 1 S.D. shock of LogT an Rm residuals

Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

LogT 0.31 0.09 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.06

Tstat 58.78*** 11.83*** 7.97*** 7.33*** 8.58*** 9.20*** 7.75***

Rm 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02

Tstat 0.46 2.59*** 1.27 0.83 1.65 1.83

*** Significant at 1percent interval

Here, LogT is the daily trading volume of market (i.e. Nifty 50 index) and Rm is the daily return of the

index.

Table 5.1.3.4: Response of Firm (i)‟s LogT to to 1 S.D. shock of Rm residuals. Here „i‟

represents the name of the firm

Period

Firm name 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Bharat Petroleum Corpn. Ltd. 0 -0.01 0.06*** 0.02 0.04** 0.01 0.02

I C I C I Bank Ltd. 0 0.01 -0.01 -0.01 0.00 0.03** -0.02

Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. 0 0.02 0.03** 0.02 0.00 0.01 0.01

Punjab National Bank 0 0.01 0.03*** 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.00

Ranbaxy Laboratories Ltd. 0 0.01 0.03 0.03 0.01 0.03** 0.04**

Reliance Capital Ltd. 0 0.02 0.03*** 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.03**

Sesa Goa Ltd. 0 0.01 0.03** 0.00 -0.02 -0.01 0.01

Siemens Ltd. 0 0.01 0.03** 0.03** 0.02 0.01 0.02

Sterlite Industries (India) Ltd. 0 0.01 0.04*** 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.03**

Tata Motors Ltd. 0 0.20*** -0.08 -0.12 -0.02 0.04 0.04

Tata Power Co. Ltd. 0 0.01 0.03** 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00

Tata Steel Ltd. 0 0.01 0.02** 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02

** Significant at the 5percent level

*** Significant at the 1percent level

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Table 5.1.3.5: Response of Firm (i)‟s LogT to to 1 S.D. shock of Ri residuals. Here „i‟ represents

the name of the firm

Periods

Firm Name (i) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Bharat Petroleum Corpn. Ltd. 0 0.04*** 0.03 0.05*** 0.03 0.03** 0.03

Oil & Natural Gas Corpn. Ltd. 0 0.02 0.02** 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.00

Steel Authority Of India Ltd. 0 0.02** 0.01 0.02 0.00 0.01 0.01

** Significant at the 5percent level

*** Significant at the 1percent level

Table 5.2: Item codes representing behavioral biases

Item No. Behavioral Bias

A1 Optimism/pessimism

A2 Optimism/pessimism

A3 Overconfidence

A4 Optimism/pessimism

A5 Overconfidence

A6 Optimism/pessimism

A7 Disposition effect

A8 Disposition effect

A9 Herding

A10 Herding

B1 Overconfidence

B2 Overconfidence

B3 Overconfidence

B4 Herding

B5 Overconfidence

B6 Disposition effect

B7 Optimism/pessimism

B8 Herding

B9 Disposition effect

B10 Disposition effect

B11 Control item

B12 Control item

B13 Herding

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B14 Herding

B15 Herding

B16 Optimism/pessimism

Table 5.3: Reliability of instrument verified with Cronbach‟s alpha value

Bias Name Cronbach‟s alpha value

Optimism 0.71

Overconfidence 0.80

Herding 0.79

Disposition effect 0.54

Table 5.2.2: Summary of Chi square tests

Demographic/investor

sophistication variable

No. of items with significant chi-

square values

Gender 16

Age 24

Education 6

Profession 22

Income 9

Trading experience 10

Trading frequency 20

Table 5.2.3.1: Independent sample t- test results for Gender

Presence of Bias

Optimism/pessimism Overconfidence Disposition Effect Herding

Group Item Response Item Response Item Response Item Response

I A4 Stable B1 Agree - -

II A4 Improve B1 Neutral

The table displays the result for items whose responses were significantly different from each other. Items

highlighted in bold show the presence of bias. (-) sign implies that the bias has an equal impact on the categories of

gender. Brief description of items is mentioned here.

A4= prospect of gold prices in next six months

B1= I have sufficient of Indian stock market.

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Table 5.2.3.2: Independent sample t- test results for age

Bias

Optimism/pessimism Overconfidence Disposition Effect Herding

Group Item Response Item Response Item Response Item Response

I A4 Improve B1,B2,B5 Neutral A9 Important

A6 Mostly

potential loss

B3 Agree B4 Neutral

II A6 Mostly

potential loss

B1,B2 Neutral A9 Least

important

B3,B5 Agree B6 Agree B4 Neutral

III A4 Improve B2,B3 Agree B6 Neutral A9 2

A6 Mostly

potential loss

B4 Neutral

IV B7 Agree B1,B2,B3 Agree B6 Neutral A9 2

B16 Agree B6 Neutral B4 Agree

The table displays the result for items whose responses were significantly different from each other. Items

highlighted in bold show the presence of bias. Brief description of items is mentioned here.

A4= prospect of gold prices in next six months

A6= issues considered before making an investment

A9= importance given to opinion of peers

B1= I have sufficient of Indian stock market.

B2= I am confident of my ability to pick better stocks than others.

B3= I take full control and responsibility of my portfolio performance.

B5= my past investment successes are attributed to my own skills and understanding.

B6= my past investment successes make me invest more in stocks.

B7= I plan to increase my investment in stock market in next quarter.

B16= If NSE drops by 3 percent, then it would recover within few days.

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Table 5.2.3.3: Independent sample t- test results for Profession

Bias

Optimism/pessimism Overconfidence Disposition Effect Herding

Group Item Response Item Response Item Response Item Response

I A1 Slightly optimistic B5 Agree B6 Agree -

A4 Improve

II A4 Improve B1,B2,B5 Neutral B6 Agree -

B7 Neutral

III A4 Improve B1 Agree B6 Neutral -

B5 Neutral

IV A1 Slightly optimistic B1,B2, Agree B6 Agree -

A4 Stable B5 Neutral

B7 Agree

B16 Agree

V A1 Can‟t say B1 Neutral B6 Neutral -

A4 Improve B5 Disagree

B7 Agree

B16 Neutral

The table displays the result for items whose responses were significantly different from each other. Items

highlighted in bold show the presence of bias. (-) sign implies that the bias has an equal impact on the categories of

profession. Brief description of items is mentioned here.

A1= Outlook for the Indian equity market

A4= Prospect of gold prices in next six months

B1= I have sufficient of Indian stock market.

B2= I am confident of my ability to pick better stocks than others.

B5= My past investment successes are attributed to my own skills and understanding.

B6= My past investment successes make me invest more in stocks.

B7= I plan to increase my investment in stock market in next quarter.

B16= If NSE drops by 3 percent, then it would recover within few days.

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Table 5.2.3.4: Independent sample t- test results for income level

Bias

Optimism/pessimism Overconfidence Disposition Effect Herding

Class Item Response Item Response Item Response Item Response

I A4 Stable -

A6 A little about

potential loss

B16 Agree

II A4 Improve B1,B2 Neutral B6 Neutral -

A6 Mostly

potential loss

B16 Neutral

III A4 Improve B1,B2 Neutral B6 Agree -

IV A6 A little about

potential loss

B1,B2 Agree B6 Agree -

B7, B16 Agree

V A4 Stable B2 Agree -

B16 Neutral

The table displays the result for items whose responses were significantly different from each other. Items

highlighted in bold show the presence of bias. (-) sign implies that the bias has an equal impact on the categories of

income level. Brief description of items is mentioned here.

A4= Prospect of gold prices in next six months

A6= Issues considered before making an investment

B1= I have sufficient of Indian stock market.

B2= I am confident of my ability to pick better stocks than others.

B6= My past investment successes make me invest more in stocks.

B7= I plan to increase my investment in stock market in next quarter.

B16= If NSE drops by 3 percent, then it would recover within few days.

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Table 5.2.3.5: Independent sample t- test results for investment type

Bias

Optimism/pessimism Overconfidence Disposition Effect Herding

Group Item code Response code Item code Response

code

Item code Response

code

Item code Response

code

I A4 Neutral A3 Sure - B4 Agree

A6 A little about

potential loss

B1 Agree

B7 Agree

B16 Agree

II A4 Improve B1 Neutral - B4 Neutral

A6 Mostly

potential loss

III A6 Mostly

potential loss

IV A4 Improve A3 Not sure -

A6 Both B1 Neutral

The table displays the result for items whose responses were significantly different from each other. Items

highlighted in bold show the presence of bias. (-) sign implies that the bias has an equal impact on the categories of

investment type. Brief description of items is mentioned here.

A3= Confidence about the correctness of response given in item A2

A4= Prospect of gold prices in next six months

A6= Issues considered before making an investment

B1= I have sufficient of Indian stock market.

B4= Discussing investment decisions with colleagues reduces pressure

B7= I plan to increase my investment in stock market in next quarter.

B16= If NSE drops by 3 percent, then it would recover within few days.

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Table 5.2.3.6: Independent sample t- test results for trading experience

Bias

Optimism/pessimism Overconfidence Disposition Effect Herding

Group Item

code

Response code Item code Response

code

Item

code

Response code Item code Response

code

I A4 Improve A3 Not sure A8 Sell and lock

gains

A9 Important

B7 Neutral B2,B3 Neutral

B16 Neutral

II B7 Neutral B2,B4 Neutral A8 Stay put B4 Neutral

B16 Neutral B3 Agree

III A4 Improve B2,B3 Agree A8 Sell and lock

gains

B4 Neutral

B15 Neutral

IV A4 Stable A3 Sure A8 Sell and lock

gains

A9 Least

important

B7 Agree B1,B2,B3 Agree B4 Neutral

V A4 Stable A3 Sure A8 Sell and lock

gains

B4,B15 Agree

B16 Agree B1,B2,B3 Agree

The table displays the result for items whose responses were significantly different from each other. Items

highlighted in bold show the presence of bias. (-) sign implies that the bias has an equal impact on the categories of

trading experience. Brief description of items is mentioned here.

A3= Confidence about the correctness of response given in item A2

A4= Prospect of gold prices in next six months

A8= Trading activity in response to increase in price of a newly bought stock

A9= importance given to opinion of peers

B1= I have sufficient of Indian stock market.

B2= I am confident of my ability to pick better stocks than others.

B3= I take full control and responsibility of my portfolio performance.

B4= Discussing investment decisions with colleagues reduces pressure

B7= I plan to increase my investment in stock market in next quarter.

B15= Disappointment after losing on a contrarian position as compared to following the crowd

B16= If NSE drops by 3 percent, then it would recover within few days.

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Table 5.2.3.7: Independent sample t- test results for trading frequency

Bias

Optimism/pessimism Overconfidence Disposition Effect Herding

Group Item

code

Response code Item code Response

code

Item code Response

code

Item code Response

code

I A4 Stable B1 Agree A9 Important

A6 A little about

potential loss B6 Agree B4 Agree

B7 Agree

B16 Agree

II A4 Improve B1 Neutral A9 Important

B16 Neutral B4 Neutral

III A4 Improve B1 Neutral B4 Neutral

A6 Mostly

potential loss

B7 Agree

B16 Neutral

IV A4 Improve B1 Neutral B6 Neutral A9 Least

important

B7,B1

6 Neutral B4 Neutral

V A4 Improve B4 Neutral

B16 Neutral

The table displays the result for items whose responses were significantly different from each other. Items

highlighted in bold show the presence of bias. (-) sign implies that the bias has an equal impact on the categories of

trading frequency. Brief description of items is mentioned here.

A4= Prospect of gold prices in next six months

A6= Issues considered before making an investment

A9= importance given to opinion of peers

B1= I have sufficient of Indian stock market.

B4= Discussing investment decisions with colleagues reduces pressure

B6= My past investment successes make me invest more in stocks.

B7= I plan to increase my investment in stock market in next quarter.

B16= If NSE drops by 3 percent, then it would recover within few days.

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Table 5.2.3.8: Investor profile corresponding to each bias

Behavioral bias

Demographic/Investor

sophistication variables

Overconfidence Optimism Pessimism Herd

behavior

Disposition effect

Gender I I II - -

Age II,III,IV IV I,III IV II

Profession I,IV IV - I,II,IV

Income IV,V I,IV,V II,III - III,IV

Investment type I I II,III,IV I -

Trading experience III,IV,V IV,V - I,V I,III,IV,V

Trading frequency I I I I I

The table presents the demographic and investor sophistication characteristics representing each bias. The values in

the table are codes of demographic and investor sophistication categories. (-) sign implies that the bias has an equal

impact on the categories of corresponding variable.

Table 5.2.4: Results for One sample t-test Part (A)

S.no Items Mean t-stat sig. Response code with

maximum frequency

percentof total

response

1 Optimism (pessimism) 2.01 -13.98 0.00*** 2 44.6

2 Optimism (pessimism) 2.11 64.09 0.00*** 2 54.29

3 Overconfidence 2.28 -15.59 0.00*** 2 43.9

4 Optimism (pessimism) 2.52 -7.04 0.00*** 2 33.7

3 33.7

5 Overconfidence 2.04 -25.66 0.00*** 2 69.3

6 Optimism (pessimism) 3.54 -13.51 0.00*** 1 31.4

6 32.4

7 Disposition effect 1.89 -22.89 0.00*** 1 44.6

8 Disposition effect 2.27 -21.71 0.00*** 2 50.4

3 37.7

9 Herd Behavior 2.42 -40.08 0.00*** 2 47.1

3 34.2

10 Herd Behavior 2.22 -42.16 0.00*** 2 51.4

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Table 5.2.5.1: Ranking of items in Part (B)

LEVEL OF IMPORTANCE

Item Bias SD D N A SA mean t-stat Sig. Rank

B3 Overconfidence 1 55 34 229 82 3.84 18.35 0.00*** 1

B2 Overconfidence 3 49 82 211 56 3.67 15.04 0.00*** 2

B7 Optimism 6 54 88 173 80 3.67 13.45 0.00*** 3

B15 Herding 10 69 97 181 44 3.45 9.16 0.00*** 4

B1 Overconfidence 16 45 126 177 37 3.43 9.18 0.00*** 5

B16 Optimism 4 56 145 161 35 3.42 9.58 0.00*** 6

B4 Herding 5 70 128 163 35 3.38 8.35 0.00*** 7

B6 Disposition Effect 5 86 101 173 36 3.37 7.76 0.00*** 8

B14 Herding 18 129 68 154 32 3.13 2.43 0.02** 9

B13 Herding 38 156 82 107 18 2.78 -4.11 0.00*** 10

B12 Disposition Effect 105 81 79 129 7 2.63 -6.02 0.00*** 11

B9 Disposition Effect 131 112 34 85 39 2.47 -7.61 0.00*** 12

Table 5.2.5.2: Bias wise ranks of items: The table presents the individual ranks for items

corresponding to each bias.

Overconfidence Optimism/pessimism Herding Disposition effect

Item Mean Rank Item Mean Rank Item Mean Rank Item Mean Rank

B3 3.84 1 B7 3.67 1 B15 3.45 1 B6 3.37 1

B2 3.67 2 B16 3.42 2 B4 3.38 2 B12 2.63 2

B1 3.43 3 B14 3.13 3 B9 2.47 3

B13 2.78 4

Table 5.2.5.3: Ranking of biases in the order of prominence

Bias name Mean Rank

Overconfidence 3.65 1

Optimism 3.54 2

Herding 3.10 3

Disposition effect 2.83 4

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ANNEXURE B

Dear Respondent

The purpose of this survey is to learn your views on investment pattern in general. Your responses will be kept

confidential and used only for academic purposes. Please provide following information about yourself.

1. Name: ___________________

2. Age: ___________________

3. Gender:

a. Male b. Female

4. Educational qualification

a. Undergraduate b. Graduate c. Post-graduate d. Doctorate

5. Current profession: _____________

6. Annual income:_________________

7. Have you invested stock markets before?

a. Yes b. No

8. If yes, then please specify which type of securities are you most comfortable in investing.

a. Stocks or mutual funds of new companies with high growth.

b. Stocks or mutual funds of old companies with high growth.

c. Derivatives and commodities market

d. High grade corporate bonds.

e. Debt and Liquid funds from AMC‟s

f. Others (Please specify)

9. For how long have you been investing?

a. Less than 1 year b. 1-3 years c. 3-5 years d. 5-7 years e. more than 7 years

10. When do you decide to invest?

a. When surplus funds are available

b. On friends‟ advice

c. Market movements

d. Analyst forecasts in News media

11. How frequently do you invest in equity markets?

a. Intraday b. 0-3 months c. 3-12 months d. 12-36 months e. 36 months or more

PART-A Kindly tick only one relevant choice.

1. My outlook for Indian equity market in near future is:

a. Very optimistic b. Slightly optimistic c. Cannot say d. Slightly pessimistic

d. Very pessimistic

2. What do you think is the average return of Indian stock market for last 15 years? __________

3. How sure are you to your answer to question 1?

a. Extremely sure b. Sure c. Not sure d. Don‟t know

4. I think the prospects of gold prices in next six months will:

a. Improve significantly b. Improve c. Stable d. Decline e. Decline significantly

5. How sure are you to your answer to question 2?

a. Extremely sure b. Sure c. Not sure d. Don‟t know

6. Before making an investment I think:

a. Mostly about the potential gain

b. A little about potential gain

c. Mostly about potential loss

d. A little about potential loss

e. Both

f. Security of investment (i.e. risk v/s return)

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7. Consider that just within two months after you put money into an investment your stock price valued at Rs.

100 declines by 20percent to Rs. 80. Assuming that none of the fundamentals have changed, how would

you respond?

a. I would remain invested and ignore temporary changes as I look for long term growth.

b. I would buy more as it was a good investment before now it‟s cheap investment too.

c. I would sell to avoid further worries and try something else.

d. I would discuss this situation with my fellow traders and do what they are doing.

8. The price of your investment jumps by 25percent a month after you buy it. The fundamentals of the firms

remain same, how would you respond now?

a. I would buy more as the price could go higher.

b. I would sell it and lock in my gains.

c. I would stay put and hope for more gains

d. I would discuss this situation with my fellow traders and do what they are doing.

9. How important are your peers for you as a source of information?

a. Extremely important b. Important c. Least important d. Not important at all

10. How important are other market participants (includes brokers, fund managers, institutional investors,

analysts etc.) for you as a source of information?

a. Extremely important b. Important c. Least important d. Not important at all

PART – B Please answer the following questions by circling your preferred response where:

SD D N A SA

Strongly Disagree Disagree Neutral Agree Strongly Agree

1. I have sufficient knowledge of Indian stock market. SD D N A SA 2. I am confident of my ability to pick better stocks than others. SD D N A SA 3. I take full control and responsibility of my portfolio performance. SD D N A SA 4. Discussing my investment decisions with colleagues reduces my pressure of being

successful.

SD D N A SA

5. My past investment successes are attributed to my own skills and understanding. SD D N A SA 6. My past investment successes make me invest more in stocks SD D N A SA 7. I plan to increase my investment in stock market in next quarter SD D N A SA 8. I would increase my trading activity if the past trading volume of stock market was

higher than usual.

SD D N A SA

9. I prefer to sell stocks as soon as their price starts increasing. SD D N A SA 10. I prefer to keep holding on to stocks if their current market price is greater than their

purchase price.

SD D N A SA

11. I quickly dispose of the stocks whose price starts decreasing. SD D N A SA 12. I prefer to keep holding on to stocks even if their past performance is not very

encouraging.

SD D N A SA

13. I prefer to buy stocks if many "buy" orders were placed from the beginning of the

trading session.

SD D N A SA

14. My disappointment after losing money on an investment diminishes a little if others

have also experienced the same loss.

SD D N A SA

15. I feel extremely disappointed if I take a contrarian position (opposite to the general

trend) and lose while my friends make profits by following the crowd.

SD D N A SA

16. If NSE drops by 3 percent, then it would recover within few days. SD D N A SA Thank You for your cooperation


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