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Anthony Hobley at Sitra on 21 May 2014: Carbon Risks for Investors

Date post: 13-Jan-2015
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Yksi johtavista hiiliriskien asiantuntijoista, Carbon Tracker Initiativen CEO Anthony Hobley kertoi Sitran järjestämässä keskustelutilaisuudessa tuoreista tutkimuksista. Näiden mukaan sijoittajien pitäisi havahtua analysoimaan niitä taloudellisia riskejä, joita fossiilisiin polttoaineisiin kohdistuvilla sijoituksilla on. CEO Anthony Hobley from Carbon Tracker Initiative shared the results from their latest studies regarding Wasted Capital and Stranded Assets in a discussion with Sitra. According to him, investors need to analyse the financial risks related to investments in high-cost, high-carbon fossil fuel assets.
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Anthony Hobley Chief Executive Officer Helsinki, 20th May 2014
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Page 1: Anthony Hobley at Sitra on 21 May 2014: Carbon Risks for Investors

Anthony Hobley

Chief Executive Officer

Helsinki, 20th May 2014

Page 2: Anthony Hobley at Sitra on 21 May 2014: Carbon Risks for Investors

Financial experts making carbon investment risk

visible today in the capital market.

Anthony Hobley - Chief Executive Officer

Mark Campanale - Founder and Executive Director

Jon Grayson - Chief Operating Officer

James Leaton - Research Director

Luke Sussams - Senior Researcher

Reid Capalino - Senior Researcher

John Wunderlin - Staff Attorney US

Margherita Gagliardi - Communications Officer

Tracy Trainor - Office Manager

Jeremy Leggett - Chair, Board of Directors

Mark Campanale - Deputy Chairman

Anthony Hobley - Executive Director

Alice Chapple - Non Executive Director

Cary Krosinsky - Non Executive Director

Who we are

Page 3: Anthony Hobley at Sitra on 21 May 2014: Carbon Risks for Investors

Our funders

Page 4: Anthony Hobley at Sitra on 21 May 2014: Carbon Risks for Investors

Our formula

...by translating climate science and policy

into the language of finance.

Our work is aimed to align climate risk

with capital market risk...

Page 5: Anthony Hobley at Sitra on 21 May 2014: Carbon Risks for Investors

What we do

Our research has created a new debate around

climate change and investment.

Page 6: Anthony Hobley at Sitra on 21 May 2014: Carbon Risks for Investors

Our stakeholders

Page 7: Anthony Hobley at Sitra on 21 May 2014: Carbon Risks for Investors

Our research path

Page 8: Anthony Hobley at Sitra on 21 May 2014: Carbon Risks for Investors

We are not about divestment

…an easy and powerful bit of arithmetical analysis first published by financial analysts in the U.K. has been making the rounds… (it) up-ends most of the conventional political thinking about climate change. And it allows us to understand our precarious position with…. simple numbers”. Bill McKibben, Co-founder of 350.org

Page 9: Anthony Hobley at Sitra on 21 May 2014: Carbon Risks for Investors

We are about responsible

risk management

This report shows very clearly the gross inconsistency between current valuations of fossil fuel assets and the path governments have committed to take in order to manage the huge risks of climate change. Prof. Lord Stern of Brentford Chair, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, LSE

Page 10: Anthony Hobley at Sitra on 21 May 2014: Carbon Risks for Investors
Page 11: Anthony Hobley at Sitra on 21 May 2014: Carbon Risks for Investors
Page 12: Anthony Hobley at Sitra on 21 May 2014: Carbon Risks for Investors

Carbon budget deficit for listed companies

Current listed reserves (762

GtCO2)

far exceed a quarter of

the carbon budgets

but could double (1541 GtCO2)

If we break the 2°C budget we

very quickly hit 2.5°C and 3°C

Page 13: Anthony Hobley at Sitra on 21 May 2014: Carbon Risks for Investors

Current reserves on stock exchanges (2013)

Page 14: Anthony Hobley at Sitra on 21 May 2014: Carbon Risks for Investors

Potential reserves on stock exchanges (2013)

Page 15: Anthony Hobley at Sitra on 21 May 2014: Carbon Risks for Investors

Rebalancing is needed between flows.

Page 16: Anthony Hobley at Sitra on 21 May 2014: Carbon Risks for Investors

Carbon Supply Cost Curves. First Report on Oil (2014)

Page 17: Anthony Hobley at Sitra on 21 May 2014: Carbon Risks for Investors

Carbon supply and oil production by

global producer category (2014-2050)

Page 18: Anthony Hobley at Sitra on 21 May 2014: Carbon Risks for Investors

Stress-testing the logic of rising

upstream oil capital expenditure

Page 19: Anthony Hobley at Sitra on 21 May 2014: Carbon Risks for Investors

Carbon Supply Cost Curves: Oil

Page 20: Anthony Hobley at Sitra on 21 May 2014: Carbon Risks for Investors

Carbon and oil production

by producer by BEOP: 2014-2050

Page 21: Anthony Hobley at Sitra on 21 May 2014: Carbon Risks for Investors

Private conventional: Total carbon & oil

production (MBPD average) by BEOP 2014-2050

Page 22: Anthony Hobley at Sitra on 21 May 2014: Carbon Risks for Investors

Private unconventional: Total carbon & oil

production (MBPD average) by BEOP 2014-2050

Page 23: Anthony Hobley at Sitra on 21 May 2014: Carbon Risks for Investors

Conventional: CAPEX $ by BEOP (2014 to 2050)

Page 24: Anthony Hobley at Sitra on 21 May 2014: Carbon Risks for Investors

Unconventional: CAPEX $ by BEOP (2014 to 2050)

Page 25: Anthony Hobley at Sitra on 21 May 2014: Carbon Risks for Investors

Key locations by CAPEX (2014 to 2025)

and carbon production (2014 to 2050)

Page 26: Anthony Hobley at Sitra on 21 May 2014: Carbon Risks for Investors

Map of oil provinces with high cost

potential production

Page 27: Anthony Hobley at Sitra on 21 May 2014: Carbon Risks for Investors

Mark Fulton, ex DB Head of Research,

presents the key findings

Page 28: Anthony Hobley at Sitra on 21 May 2014: Carbon Risks for Investors

Recommendations for Investors

Page 29: Anthony Hobley at Sitra on 21 May 2014: Carbon Risks for Investors
Page 30: Anthony Hobley at Sitra on 21 May 2014: Carbon Risks for Investors
Page 31: Anthony Hobley at Sitra on 21 May 2014: Carbon Risks for Investors

Anthony Hobley

Chief Executive Officer

[email protected]


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