Civ-mil and the future of Humanitarian Action

• • What has changed in

the last ten years

• What can we expect in the next ten years

•

2

Follow the money

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

DAC donors Non-DAC donors

Conflict Rules!

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090

2

4

6

8

10

12

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

47.1%

59.2% 60.5%65.3%

77.1% 77.3% 79.5% 81.4%76.2% 75.3% 74.5%

Total humanitarian aid to conflict-affected countriesTotal humanitarian aid to non-conflict countriesTotal country-allocable humanitarian aidTotal ODA to conflict affected states as a share of total country-allocable ODA

US$

billi

on (c

onst

ant 2

008

price

s)

Source: Development Initiatives 2011 from OECD DAC data

Limbo or Purgatory?

Attacks relative to aid worker population in the field

0

2

4

6

8

10

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Global attack rates per 10,000

Source: Stoddard et al. 2009

Haiti

Pakistan: 2005 earthquake

Pakistan: conflict displacement

Pakistan: floods

AfghanistanAfghanistan

…some are giving “Humanitarian” a bad name

While the humanitarians are….

…in their fortified aid compounds

Where do we go from here?

3 mega trends…

• Humanitarian assistance is up, humanitarianism is down.

• Universalism is down, sovereignty/nationalism is up

• Conflict is down, “natural” disasters are up

The importance of principles