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1 Appendix
1
Appendix
2
Reanalysis Planning
Current CFS
• Operational August 2004
• Frozen system
• Reforecast data base
• Twice daily runs (60/month)
3
Noah LSM Testing Hierarchy at NCEP
• 1D uncoupled column model – at individual surface-flux stations from field programs
• 3D uncoupled land model regionally and globally– Joint NCEP-NASA N. American and Global Land Data
Assimilation Systems (NLDAS, GLDAS)• 3D coupled mesoscale model
– Joint NCEP-NCAR Unified Noah LSM for the WRF mesoscale model
• 3D coupled medium-range global model: – NCEP atmosphere/land Global Forecast System (GFS)
• 3D coupled seasonal climate global model:– NCEP coupled atmosphere/ocean/land seasonal-range global
Climate Forecast System (CFS)
For every new physics advance/implementation
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Satellite(AVHRR, JASON, QuikSCAT)
In situ(ARGO, Buoys, Ships)
OCEAN DATA ASSIMILATION
RT-OFS-GODAENOPPEMC
CFS-GODASNCO/ODA
EMC NOPP-JPL (ECCO)
OPNL OCEAN FORECASTS
Climate Forecast System Real-Time Ocean Forecast System
Data Cutoff
CFS: 2 week data cutoff RTOFS: 24 hour data cutoff
Shared history, coding, and data
processing
MOM-3 MOM-4 HOME HYCOM HOME
NASA-NOAA-DODJCSDA
AMSR, GOES,AIRS, JASON, WindSat,
MODISAdvanced
ODA Techniques
Observations
CLIMATE FORECAST OCEAN FORECAST
http://cfs.ncep.noaa.gov/ http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/ofs/
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ClimateForecastSystem(CFS)
Ocean ModelMOMv3
quasi-global1ox1o (1/3o in tropics)
40 levels
Atmospheric ModelGFS (2003)
T6264 levels
Seasonal to Interannual Prediction at NCEP
GODAS3DVAR
XBTTAO etc
ArgoSalinity (syn.)
(TOPEX/Jason-1)
Reanalysis-23DVART62L28
update of theNCEP-NCAR R1
D. Behringer
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Standard or operational GODAS
• Temperature profiles from Argo, XBTs, TAO moorings• Depth of assimilation is 750 m.
• Temperature profiles from Argo (2200), XBTs (750), TAO (500) moorings
• Depth of assimilation is 2200 m. Shallow profiles (XBT, TAO) are augmented with climatology.
Deep GODAS-X
Two long (1980-2005) experiments
Standard vs. Deep assimilation
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Independent WOCE CTD section completed in 1988 & 1989 …
…and repeated in 2003 & 2005 by PMEL.
Standard
Deep
Standard vs. Deep assimilation
Shallow assimilation has a strong cold bias of1-3oC below 750 m.
Deep assimilation eliminates the cold bias.
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Standard or operational GODAS
• Temperature profiles from Argo, XBTs, TAO moorings• Salinity profiles are 100% synthetic (via TS-relationship)
• Temperature profiles from Argo and XBTs only• Salinity profiles are 75% observed (Argo) and
25% synthetic (XBTs)
Argo salinity in GODAS-A/S
Two 2005 experiments
Assimilating Argo Salinity
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Assimilating Argo Salinity
ADCP GODAS GODAS-A/S
In the east, assimilating Argo salinity reduces the bias at the surface and sharpens the profile below the thermocline at 110oW.
In the west, assimilating Argo salinity corrects the bias at the surface and the depth of the undercurrent core and captures the complex structure at 165oE.
Comparison with independent ADCP currents.
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MME Strategy and Research• NCEP, NOAA Climate Test Bed activity
– Anchored by the CFS– IMME
• CFS + International Systems– Operational centers– Required hindcast data sets– UKMO,– Meteo-France – ECMWF – BMRC– Beijing Climate Center
– NMME: national research centers• GFDL• NASA• NCAR (through COLA)
• Applied research– Preliminary skill evaluation of IMME and NMME members – Assembly of full reforecast data sets from NMME contributors– Prototype products
• Consolidate the IMME and NMME contributions• Single operational MME Prediction System
Saha, Vandendool, Higgins
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The NCEP coupled Climate Forecast System (implemented August 24, 2004)
1. Atmospheric component• Global Forecast System 2003 (GFS03)
• T62 in horizontal; 64 layers in vertical
• Recent upgrades in model physics Solar radiation (Hou, 1996)
cumulus convection (Hong and Pan, 1998)
gravity wave drag (Kim and Arakawa, 1995)
cloud water/ice (Zhao and Carr,1997)
2. Oceanic component• GFDL MOM3 (Pacanowski and Griffies, 1998)
• 1/3°x1° in tropics; 1°x1° in extratropics; 40 layers
• Quasi-global domain (74°S to 64°N)
• Free surface3. Coupled model
• Once-a-day coupling
• Sea ice extent taken as observed climatology
4. Calibrated on past 38 years
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Climate Forecast System Availability
7 day average centered on Dec 27
• Real-time 2x daily, 9-month forecasts, monthly ensemble of 40-60 members.
• 15-member reforecasts per month (1981–2005)– Calibration– Skill estimates– Analog and statistical forecasts
• The website for real time data retrieval is at: ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/ST.opnl/MT.cfs_MR.fcst
• The climatological data is at: ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/ST.opnl/MT.cfs_MR.clim/
• Complete documentation available at: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ssaha/cfs_data/cfs_data.pdf
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Without skill mask
CFS SeasonalPrecip Forecast
(mm/month)
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With skill mask
• If anomaly correlation between forecast and observed conditions over the 1982-2003 period is below 0.3, values are not shown
CFS SeasonalPrecip Forecast
(mm/month)
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Without skill mask
CFS SeasonalTemp Forecast
(deg K)
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With skill mask
• If anomaly correlation between forecast and observed conditions over the 1982-2003 period is below 0.3, values are not shown
CFS SeasonalTemp Forecast
(deg K)
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North American Ensemble Forecast System
• Combines global ensemble forecasts from Canada & USA– Now:CAN 40/day out to 16 days, US – 56/day out to 16 days– ’07 – CAN 40/day out to 16 days, US – 80/day out to 16 days
• Generates products for– Intermediate users: forecasters at NCEP, WFOs, academia,
media, private sector, …– Specialized users: hydrologic applications in all three countries– End users: forecasts for public distribution
in US, Canada (MSC) and Mexico (NMSM)
• Future activities– Adding products (probabilistic in nature)– Incorporating ensemble data from
other centers (e.g., FNMOC)– Unified evaluation/verification procedures
International project to produce operational multi-center ensemble products
After bias correction
Raw ensemble
Probabilistic skill extended 1-3 days
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NAEFS Products
• NAEFS basic product list– 11 functionalities
• Ensemble mean, spread, probabilities, etc.
– 50 variables• U,v,t,z,CAPE,
precip type, etc.– 7 domains
• Global, NH, NA, CONUS, SA, Caribbean, Africa• Over 600 products requested by users (will be supplied via
priority order)– Graphics
• Available on NAWIPS at NCEP Centers– Grids
• NAWIPS• ftp://ftpprd.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/grns/prod• NDGD in planning phase (Aug 07)
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NASA-NOAA-DOD Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation
(JCSDA)– NOAA, NASA, DOD partnership– Mission
• Accelerate and improve the quantitative use of research and operational satellite data in weather and climate prediction models
– Current generation data
– Prepare for next-generation (NPOESS, METOP, research) instruments
– Supports applied research• Partners
• University, Government and Commercial Labs
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JCSDA Scientific Priorities 2002-2007
1. Improve radiative transfer model
2. Prepare for advanced instruments
3. Advance techniques for assimilating cloud and precipitation information
4. Improve land and sea ice surface emissivity models and land surface and sea ice products
5. Improve use of satellite data in ocean and land data assimilation
6. Air quality (aerosols, ozone and trace gases)
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ESMFEarth System Modeling Framework
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ESMF PartnersNSF NCAR
Tim Killeen, PIByron BovilleCecelia DeLucaRoberta JohnsonJohn MichalakesAl Kellie
MITJohn Marshall, PIChris Hill
NASA GMAOArlindo da Silva, PILeonid ZaslavskyWill Sawyer
Max Suarez Michele RieneckerChristian Keppenne
Christa Peters-Lidard
NOAA GFDLAnts LeetmaaV. BalajiRobert HallbergJeff Anderson
NOAA NCEPStephen LordMark IredellMike YoungJohn Derber
DOE Los Alamos National LabPhil Jones
DOE Argonne National LabJay LarsonBarry Smith
University of MichiganQuentin Stout
