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17 March 2011 Cardno (NSW/ACT) Pty Ltd Page A1 Version 1 H:\Doc\2011\Reports.2011\Rep2703-InterimDraft.doc Appendix A Tsunami Scenario Selection
17 March 2011 Cardno (NSW/ACT) Pty Ltd Page A1 Version 1 H:\Doc\2011\Reports.2011\Rep2703-InterimDraft.doc
Appendix A
Tsunami Scenario Selection
NSW Tsunami Inundation Modelling and Risk Assessment Prepared for NSW OEH and NSW SES
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APPENDIX A
A.1 Swansea
Zone ARI (years)
Tsu-DAT ID Code
Tsu-DAT Wave
Height# (m)
Tsu-DAT Magnitude
(Mw)
T2 Database ID Code
T2 Database Wave
Height* (m)
T2 Database Magnitude
(Mw)
Wave Height
Difference (m)
Wave Height
Difference (%)
KERMADEC 200 31377 0.370 8.9 233d 0.39 8.9 0.02 5.40% NEW HEBRIDES 200 49841 0.375 8.7 196c 0.34 8.7 0.035 9.30%
PUYSEGUR 200 58288 0.400 8.7 215c 0.39 8.7 0.01 2.50% STH CHILE 200 62765 0.399 9.3 402d 0.39 9.3 0.009 2.30%
TONGA 200 72503 0.339 9.2 245d 0.37 9.2 0.031 9.10% KERMADEC 500 31494 0.638 9.0 232d 0.62 9.0 0.018 2.80%
NEW HEBRIDES 500 50053 0.631 9.0 194d 0.67 9.0 0.039 6.20% PUYSEGUR 500 58276 0.644 8.7 217c 0.60 8.7 0.044 6.80%
TONGA 500 72532 0.617 9.3 245d 0.57 9.3 0.047 7.60% KERMADEC 1000 31627 0.878 9.1 231d 0.88 9.1 0.002 0.20%
NEW HEBRIDES 1000 50062 0.871 9.1 194d** 0.94 9.1 0.069 7.90% PUYSEGUR 1000 58319 0.881 8.8 216d 1.03 9.0 0.149 16.90% KERMADEC 2000 31709 1.08 9.2 233d 1.08 9.2 0.00 0.00%
NEW HEBRIDES 2000 50064 1.02 9.1 194d** 0.94 9.1 0.08 7.80% PUYSEGUR 2000 58299 1.10 8.8 216d 1.04 9.0 0.06 5.50%
NEW HEBRIDES 5000 50130 1.49 9.2 194d 1.34 9.2 0.15 10.10% PUYSEGUR 5000 58347 1.55 9.0 216d 1.45 9.1 0.10 6.50%
NEW HEBRIDES 10000 50160 1.86 9.4 194d 1.89 9.3 0.03 1.60% PUYSEGUR 10000 58360 1.85 9.1 216d 2.06 9.2 0.21 11.40%
* Wave Height at 100m contour ** Event was scaled linearly to prevent two events using the same T2 Event scenario # Tsunami Wave Height is measured as height of tsunami wave crest above still water level (MSL) – see Glossary
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APPENDIX A
A.2 Manly
Zone ARI (years)
Tsu-DAT ID Code
Tsu-DAT Wave
Height# (m)
Tsu-DAT Magnitude
(Mw)
T2 Database ID Code
T2 Database Wave
Height* (m)
T2 Database Magnitude
(Mw)
Wave Height
Difference (m)
Wave Height
Difference (%)
KERMADEC 200 31514 0.343 9.0 232d 0.35 9.0 0.007 2.0% NEW HEBRIDES 200 49865 0.366 8.7 196c 0.36 8.7 0.006 1.6%
PUYSEGUR 200 58256 0.337 8.6 215c 0.37 8.6 0.033 9.8% STH CHILE 200 62767 0.316 9.3 402d 0.28 9.3 0.036 11.4%
TONGA 200 72467 0.333 9.1 245d 0.35 9.1 0.017 5.1% KERMADEC 500 31649 0.543 9.1 231d 0.52 9.1 0.023 4.2%
NEW HEBRIDES 500 50038 0.568 9.0 194d 0.58 9.0 0.012 2.1% PUYSEGUR 500 58290 0.503 8.7 215c 0.48 8.7 0.023 4.6%
TONGA 500 72502 0.505 9.2 245d 0.49 9.2 0.015 3.0% KERMADEC 1000 31703 0.760 9.2 231d 0.73 9.2 0.030 3.9%
NEW HEBRIDES 1000 50090 0.763 9.1 194d 0.81 9.1 0.047 6.2% PUYSEGUR 1000 58310 0.682 8.8 216d 0.65 8.8 0.032 4.7% KERMADEC 2000 31853 1.03 9.3 228d 1.07 9.3 0.04 3.9%
NEW HEBRIDES 2000 50126 1.06 9.2 194d** 1.16 9.2 0.10 9.4% PUYSEGUR 2000 58338 1.05 8.9 216d 0.88 8.9 0.17 16.2%
NEW HEBRIDES 5000 50119 1.38 9.2 194d** 1.16 9.2 0.22 15.9% PUYSEGUR 5000 58332 1.42 8.9 216d 1.24 9.0 0.18 12.7%
NEW HEBRIDES 10000 50134 1.70 9.3 194d 1.63 9.3 0.07 4.1% PUYSEGUR 10000 58346 1.74 9.0 216d 1.74 9.1 0.00 0.0%
* Wave Height at 100m contour ** Event was scaled linearly to prevent two events using the same T2 Event scenario # Tsunami Wave Height is measured as height of tsunami wave crest above still water level (MSL) – see Glossary
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APPENDIX A
A.3 Botany Bay
Zone ARI (years)
Tsu-DAT ID Code
Tsu-DAT Wave
Height# (m)
Tsu-DAT Magnitude
(Mw)
T2 Database ID Code
T2 Database Wave
Height* (m)
T2 Database Magnitude
(Mw)
Wave Height
Difference (m)
Wave Height
Difference (%)
KERMADEC 200 31637 0.385 9.1 233d 0.39 9.1 0.005 1.3% NEW HEBRIDES 200 49863 0.362 8.7 196c 0.39 8.7 0.028 7.7%
PUYSEGUR 200 58242 0.399 8.6 215c 0.39 8.6 0.009 2.3% STH CHILE 200 62725 0.347 9.2 402d 0.32 9.2 0.027 7.8%
TONGA 200 72469 0.389 9.1 245d 0.38 9.1 0.009 2.3% KERMADEC 500 31768 0.570 9.2 232d 0.59 9.2 0.020 3.5%
NEW HEBRIDES 500 50042 0.563 9.0 194d 0.61 9.0 0.047 8.3% PUYSEGUR 500 58293 0.585 8.7 215c 0.53 8.7 0.055 9.4%
TONGA 500 72499 0.589 9.2 244d 0.55 9.2 0.039 6.6% KERMADEC 1000 31759 0.779 9.2 231d 0.73 9.2 0.049 6.3%
NEW HEBRIDES 1000 50062 0.808 9.1 194d 0.87 9.1 0.062 7.7% PUYSEGUR 1000 58325 0.795 8.8 216d 0.72 8.8 0.075 9.4% KERMADEC 2000 31849 1.10 9.3 228d 1.12 9.3 0.02 1.8%
NEW HEBRIDES 2000 50104 1.08 9.2 194d** 1.23 9.2 0.15 13.9% PUYSEGUR 2000 58339 1.12 8.9 216d 0.93 8.9 0.19 17.0%
NEW HEBRIDES 5000 50114 1.49 9.2 194d** 1.23 9.2 0.26 17.4% PUYSEGUR 5000 58336 1.51 8.9 216d 1.33 9.0 0.18 11.9%
NEW HEBRIDES 10000 50144 1.92 9.3 194d 1.74 9.3 0.18 9.4% PUYSEGUR 10000 58346 1.94 9.0 216d 1.88 9.1 0.06 3.1%
* Wave Height at 100m contour ** Event was scaled linearly to prevent two events using the same T2 Event scenario # Tsunami Wave Height is measured as height of tsunami wave crest above still water level (MSL) – see Glossary
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APPENDIX A
A.4 Wollongong
Zone ARI (years)
Tsu-DAT ID Code
Tsu-DAT Wave
Height# (m)
Tsu-DAT Magnitude
(Mw)
T2 Database ID Code
T2 Database Wave
Height* (m)
T2 Database Magnitude
(Mw)
Wave Height
Difference (m)
Wave Height
Difference (%)
KERMADEC 200 31365 0.343 8.9 232d 0.33 8.9 0.013 3.8% NEW HEBRIDES 200 49762 0.341 8.6 196c 0.33 8.6 0.011 3.2%
PUYSEGUR 200 58256 0.320 8.6 215c 0.35 8.6 0.030 9.4% STH CHILE 200 62765 0.329 9.3 402d 0.23 9.3 0.099 30.1%
TONGA 200 72505 0.380 9.2 247d 0.38 9.2 0.00 0.0% KERMADEC 500 31639 0.588 9.1 233d 0.58 9.1 0.008 1.4%
NEW HEBRIDES 500 50001 0.588 8.9 194d 0.55 8.9 0.038 6.5% PUYSEGUR 500 58316 0.585 8.8 215c 0.68 8.8 0.095 16.2%
TONGA 500 72497 0.557 9.2 245d 0.59 9.3 0.033 5.9% KERMADEC 1000 31712 0.767 9.2 233d 0.83 9.2 0.063 8.2%
NEW HEBRIDES 1000 50048 0.824 9.0 194d 0.78 9.0 0.044 5.3% PUYSEGUR 1000 58308 0.825 8.8 216d** 0.91 8.9 0.085 10.3% KERMADEC 2000 31725 1.03 9.2 231d 0.98 9.2 0.05 4.9%
NEW HEBRIDES 2000 50052 1.06 9.0 194d 1.10 9.1 0.04 3.8% PUYSEGUR 2000 58339 1.02 8.9 216d** 0.91 8.9 0.11 10.8%
NEW HEBRIDES 5000 50068 1.52 9.1 194d 1.56 9.2 0.04 2.6% PUYSEGUR 5000 58349 1.51 9.0 216d 1.32 9.0 0.19 12.6%
NEW HEBRIDES 10000 31810 1.95 9.3 194d 2.18 9.3 0.23 11.8% PUYSEGUR 10000 58303 1.91 8.8 216d 1.82 9.1 0.09 4.7%
* Wave Height at 100m contour ** Event was scaled linearly to prevent two events using the same T2 Event scenario # Tsunami Wave Height is measured as height of tsunami wave crest above still water level (MSL) – see Glossary
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APPENDIX A
A.5 Merimbula
Zone ARI (years)
Tsu-DAT ID Code
Tsu-DAT Wave
Height# (m)
Tsu-DAT Magnitude
(Mw)
T2 Database ID Code
T2 Database Wave
Height* (m)
T2 Database Magnitude
(Mw)
Wave Height
Difference (m)
Wave Height
Difference (%)
KERMADEC 200 31518 0.352 9.0 230d 0.32 9.0 0.032 9.1% NEW HEBRIDES 200 49863 0.323 8.7 195c 0.32 8.7 0.003 0.9%
PUYSEGUR 200 58196 0.341 8.4 216c 0.32 8.4 0.021 6.2% STH CHILE 200 62757 0.317 9.3 402d 0.23 9.3 0.087 27.4%
TONGA 200 72467 0.321 9.1 246d 0.31 9.1 0.011 3.4% KERMADEC 500 31770 0.539 9.2 231d 0.53 9.2 0.009 1.7%
NEW HEBRIDES 500 49971 0.571 8.9 194d 0.53 8.9 0.041 7.2% PUYSEGUR 500 58260 0.538 8.6 215c 0.51 8.6 0.028 5.2%
TONGA 500 72487 0.534 9.2 246d 0.44 9.2 0.094 17.6% KERMADEC 1000 31712 0.693 9.2 229d 0.73 9.2 0.037 5.3%
NEW HEBRIDES 1000 50053 0.702 9.0 194d 0.75 9.0 0.048 6.8% PUYSEGUR 1000 58281 0.724 8.7 216c 0.68 8.7 0.044 6.1% KERMADEC 2000 31860 0.992 9.3 229d 0.96 9.3 0.032 3.2%
NEW HEBRIDES 2000 50073 1.02 9.1 194d 1.06 9.1 0.04 3.9% PUYSEGUR 2000 58323 0.956 8.8 216d 1.08 8.8 0.124 13.0%
NEW HEBRIDES 5000 50130 1.48 9.2 194d 1.50 9.2 0.02 1.4% PUYSEGUR 5000 58305 1.54 8.8 216d 1.44 8.9 0.10 6.5%
NEW HEBRIDES 10000 50119 1.97 9.2 194d 2.11 9.3 0.14 7.1% PUYSEGUR 10000 58349 1.90 9.0 216d 2.02 9.0 0.12 6.3%
* Wave Height at 100m contour # Tsunami Wave Height is measured as height of tsunami wave crest above still water level (MSL) – see Glossary
Appendix B
Model Verification to Measured Events
NSW Tsunami Inundation Modelling and Risk Assessment Prepared for NSW OEH and NSW SES
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APPENDIX B
Table B.1: Analysed Water Level / Wave Parameters of Measured and Modelled Historical Tsunami Events
Event Site Output* Arrival Time (EST)
WH#
(m) WHmean
(m) Tm01
(min) Tm02
(min) Tp
(min) South Central
Chile 22 May 1960
Fort Denison TG 23/05/1960 19:59 0.32 0.11 43.7 38.1 51.2
D3D 23/05/1960 19:03 0.58 0.14 53.1 50.2 46.5
Gizo, Solomon Islands
2 April 2007
Botany Bay TG 2/04/2007 11:37 0.05 0.02 23.1 17.2 28.4
D3D 2/04/2007 11:30 0.02 0.01 44.5 41.1 46.5
Eden TG 2/04/2007 12:37 0.29 0.06 40.0 31.6 46.5
D3D 2/04/2007 11:55 0.17 0.1 47.9 46.9 46.5
Fort Denison TG 2/04/2007 11:35 0.08 0.03 31.8 24.8 46.5
D3D 2/04/2007 11:35 0.07 0.03 44.7 42.3 46.5
Port Kembla Outer Harbour
TG 2/04/2007 11:39 0.14 0.05 21.3 16.6 73.1
D3D 2/04/2007 11:32 0.09 0.03 49.0 44.6 64.0
Port Kembla Inner Harbour
TG 2/04/2007 11:40 0.32 0.11 22.5 20.8 20.5
D3D 2/04/2007 11:35 0.11 0.04 39.4 35.5 64.0
New Zealand South Coast 15 July 2009
Botany Bay TG 15/07/2009 21:58 0.06 0.02 21.4 16.8 30.1
D3D 15/07/2009 22:00 0.05 0.01 28.5 25.8 32.0
Eden TG 15/07/2009 21:42 0.18 0.05 17.4 12.5 46.5
D3D 15/07/2009 21:31 0.18 0.09 42.4 39.3 46.5
Fort Denison TG 15/07/2009 22:12 0.08 0.02 28.2 22.7 25.6
D3D 15/07/2009 22:07 0.11 0.04 37.2 34.7 56.9
Port Kembla Outer Harbour
TG 15/07/2009 22:00 0.15 0.06 18.7 16.0 26.9
D3D 15/07/2009 21:57 0.23 0.05 27.5 23.3 26.9
Port Kembla Inner Harbour
TG 15/07/2009 22:04 0.3 0.1 23.8 22.7 26.9
D3D 15/07/2009 22:02 0.35 0.09 24.9 23.7 26.9
Chile 27 February
2010
Botany Bay TG 28/02/2010 8:14 0.08 0.02 20.3 15.5 9.8
D3D 28/02/2010 7:13 0.08 0.02 47.5 40.2 34.1
Fort Denison TG 28/02/2010 10:24 0.15 0.05 37.4 29.3 51.2
D3D 28/02/2010 7:23 0.18 0.05 52.1 48.8 46.5
Honshu, Japan 11 March 2011
Botany Bay TG 12/03/2011 5:58 0.13 0.04 24.3 21.3 30.1
D3D 12/03/2011 4:52 0.12 0.05 35.7 31.4 34.1
Eden TG 12/03/2011 6:02 0.37 0.12 40.1 29.4 73.1
D3D 12/03/2011 6:06 0.45 0.13 61.2 57.6 64.0
Fort Denison TG 12/03/2011 5:47 0.13 0.04 28.6 22.1 51.2
D3D 12/03/2011 4:58 0.13 0.05 45.6 36.2 56.9
Port Kembla Outer Harbour
TG 12/03/2011 5:51 0.36 0.09 23.0 18.6 34.1
D3D 12/03/2011 4:55 0.52 0.19 24.3 22.9 19.7
Port Kembla Inner Harbour
TG 12/03/2011 5:54 0.48 0.20 24.7 23.0 24.4
D3D 12/03/2011 6:04 0.42 0.13 31.7 29.2 30.1
* TG = Tide Gauge Record, D3D = Model Output # Tsunami Wave Height is measured as height of tsunami wave crest above still water level – see Glossary
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APPENDIX B
Table B.2: Analysed Current Parameters of Measured and Modelled Historical Tsunami Events
Event Site Output* Arrival Time Peak
Current (m/s)
Tm01
(min) Tm02
(min) Tp
(min)
Gizo, Solomon Islands
2 April 2007
Balls Head CM 2/04/2007 11:35 0.21 15.7 8.1 46.5
D3D 2/04/2007 11:46 0.12 48.2 45.0 46.5
Port Kembla Northern
CM 2/04/2007 11:39 0.05 5.8 4.4 23.3
D3D 2/04/2007 11:51 0.02 28.1 17.6 64.0
New Zealand South Coast 15 July 2009
Balls Head CM 15/07/2009 22:12 0.09 10.6 7.0 42.7
D3D 15/07/2009 22:16 0.13 49.7 42.8 56.9
Port Kembla Eastern
CM 15/07/2009 22:00 0.08 7.7 5.5 26.9
D3D 15/07/2009 21:54 0.11 23.9 19.8 26.9
Port Kembla Northern
CM 15/07/2009 22:00 0.07 7.6 5.5 26.9
D3D 15/07/2009 21:54 0.09 17.7 11.6 26.9 Chile
27 February 2010
Balls Head CM 28/02/2010 10:24 0.43 24.0 11.6 51.2
D3D 28/02/2010 7:24 0.23 58.8 51.4 46.5
Honshu, Japan 11 March 2011
Balls Head CM 12/03/2011 5:47 0.18 11.2 6.5 51.2
D3D 12/03/2011 6:37 0.28 66.9 57.7 128.0
Port Kembla Eastern
CM 12/03/2011 5:48 0.21 13.9 8.9 34.1
D3D 12/03/2011 7:49 0.18 26.8 21.0 28.4
* CM = Current Meter Record, D3D = Model Output
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TSUNAMIGENIC VERIFICATION − FORT DENISON TIDE GAUGETSUNAMI EVENT: 23rd May 1960
Appendix B.1
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TSUNAMIGENIC VERIFICATION − BOTANY BAY TIDE GAUGETSUNAMI EVENT: 2nd April 2007
Appendix B.2
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TSUNAMIGENIC VERIFICATION − EDEN TIDE GAUGETSUNAMI EVENT: 2nd April 2007
Appendix B.3
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TSUNAMIGENIC VERIFICATION − FORT DENISON TIDE GAUGETSUNAMI EVENT: 2nd April 2007
Appendix B.4
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TSUNAMIGENIC VERIFICATION − PORT KEMBLA OUTER HARBOURTSUNAMI EVENT: 2nd April 2007
Appendix B.5
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TSUNAMIGENIC VERIFICATION − PORT KEMBLA INNER HARBOURTSUNAMI EVENT: 2nd April 2007
Appendix B.6
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TSUNAMIGENIC VERIFICATION − BOTANY BAY TIDE GAUGETSUNAMI EVENT: 15th July 2009
Appendix B.7
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TSUNAMIGENIC VERIFICATION − EDEN TIDE GAUGETSUNAMI EVENT: 15th July 2009
Appendix B.8
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TSUNAMIGENIC VERIFICATION − FORT DENISON TIDE GAUGETSUNAMI EVENT: 15th July 2009
Appendix B.9
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TSUNAMIGENIC VERIFICATION − PORT KEMBLA OUTER HARBOURTSUNAMI EVENT: 15th July 2009
Appendix B.10
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TSUNAMIGENIC VERIFICATION − PORT KEMBLA INNER HARBOURTSUNAMI EVENT: 15th July 2009
Appendix B.11
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TSUNAMIGENIC VERIFICATION − BOTANY BAY TIDE GAUGETSUNAMI EVENT: 28th February 2010
Appendix B.12
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TSUNAMIGENIC VERIFICATION − FORT DENISON TIDE GAUGETSUNAMI EVENT: 28th February 2010
Appendix B.13
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TSUNAMIGENIC VERIFICATION − BOTANY BAY TIDE GAUGETSUNAMI EVENT: 12th March 2011
Appendix B.14
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TSUNAMIGENIC VERIFICATION − EDEN TIDE GAUGETSUNAMI EVENT: 12th March 2011
Appendix B.15
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TSUNAMIGENIC VERIFICATION − FORT DENISON TIDE GAUGETSUNAMI EVENT: 12th March 2011
Appendix B.16
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TSUNAMIGENIC VERIFICATION − PORT KEMBLA OUTER HARBOURTSUNAMI EVENT: 12th March 2011
Appendix B.17
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TSUNAMIGENIC VERIFICATION − PORT KEMBLA INNER HARBOURTSUNAMI EVENT: 12th March 2011
Appendix B.18
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TSUNAMIGENIC VERIFICATIONBALLS HEAD
Appendix B.19
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TSUNAMIGENIC VERIFICATIONPORT KEMBLA NORTHERN CURRENT METER
Appendix B.20
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TSUNAMIGENIC VERIFICATIONBALLS HEAD
Appendix B.21
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TSUNAMIGENIC VERIFICATIONPORT KEMBLA EASTERN CURRENT METER
Appendix B.22
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TSUNAMIGENIC VERIFICATIONPORT KEMBLA NORTHERN CURRENT METER
Appendix B.23
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TSUNAMIGENIC VERIFICATIONBALLS HEAD
Appendix B.24
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TSUNAMIGENIC VERIFICATIONBALLS HEAD
Appendix B.25
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TSUNAMIGENIC VERIFICATIONPORT KEMBLA EASTERN CURRENT METER
Appendix B.26
Appendix C
Tsunami Scenario Maximum Wave
Height and Run-up Results
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APPENDIX C
C.1 Swansea
Scenario #
ARI (years)
Source Zone *
Water Level ^
Maximum Wave Height# (m) Max Run-up (mAHD)
100m depth
20m depth
5m depth
S1 200 KER HAT 0.34 1.01 1.21 2.26 S2 200 NHB HAT 0.4 1.28 1.60 2.48 S3 200 PUY HAT 0.46 1.41 1.55 2.74 S4 200 SCH HAT 0.36 0.34 0.36 1.67 S5 200 TGA HAT 0.34 0.92 1.12 2.19 S6 500 KER HAT 0.57 1.55 1.83 3.13 S7 500 NHB HAT 0.63 1.91 2.24 3.08 S8 500 PUY HAT 0.73 2.40 2.81 3.52 S9 500 TGA HAT 0.67 1.31 1.61 2.67 S10 1000 KER HAT 0.88 2.08 2.62 3.68 S11 1000 NHB HAT 0.82 2.45 2.86 3.81 S12 1000 PUY HAT 0.94 3.06 3.47 4.32 S13 2000 KER HAT 1.07 2.98 3.62 5.36 S14 2000 NHB HAT 0.97 2.82 3.30 4.26 S15 2000 PUY HAT 1.22 3.69 4.25 5.13 S16 2000 KER MSL 1.07 3.14 3.81 5.26 S17 2000 NHB MSL 0.97 2.80 3.19 4.74 S18 2000 PUY MSL 1.22 3.68 4.22 5.42 S19 5000 NHB HAT 1.32 3.73 4.28 5.32 S20 5000 PUY HAT 1.63 4.91 5.59 6.70 S21 5000 NHB MSL 1.32 3.68 4.17 5.85 S22 5000 PUY MSL 1.63 4.83 5.53 6.81 S23 10000 NHB HAT 1.74 5.41 6.03 6.81 S24 10000 PUY HAT 2.11 6.75 7.42 8.26
* KER = Kermadec, NHB = New Hebrides, PUY = Puysegur, SCH = South Chile, TGA = Tonga
^ HAT = Highest Astronomical Tide, MSL = Mean Sea Level
# Tsunami Wave Height is measured as height of tsunami wave crest above still water level – see Glossary
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APPENDIX C
C.2 Manly
Scenario #
ARI (years)
Source Zone *
Water Level ^
Maximum Wave Height# (m) Max Run-up (mAHD)
100m depth
20m depth
5m depth
S1 200 KER HAT 0.32 0.78 0.94 2.52 S2 200 NHB HAT 0.42 1.12 1.39 3.20 S3 200 PUY HAT 0.38 0.95 1.16 2.38 S4 200 SCH HAT 0.29 0.48 0.50 1.54 S5 200 TGA HAT 0.31 0.62 0.66 1.89 S6 500 KER HAT 0.47 1.23 1.36 3.34 S7 500 NHB HAT 0.6 1.48 1.79 3.72 S8 500 PUY HAT 0.54 1.33 1.62 2.82 S9 500 TGA HAT 0.58 1.28 1.36 2.75 S10 1000 KER HAT 0.65 1.74 1.92 4.18 S11 1000 NHB HAT 0.84 2.11 2.60 4.80 S12 1000 PUY HAT 0.69 1.62 1.95 3.12 S13 2000 KER HAT 0.93 2.61 3.12 4.86 S14 2000 NHB HAT 1.09 2.72 3.42 5.96 S15 2000 PUY HAT 0.96 2.27 2.72 3.97 S16 2000 KER MSL 0.93 2.73 3.08 4.39 S17 2000 NHB MSL 1.09 2.75 3.43 5.18 S18 2000 PUY MSL 0.96 2.24 2.71 3.51 S19 5000 NHB HAT 1.43 3.62 4.37 7.17 S20 5000 PUY HAT 1.36 3.19 3.77 5.06 S21 5000 NHB MSL 1.43 3.62 4.41 6.30 S22 5000 PUY MSL 1.36 3.17 3.75 4.62 S23 10000 NHB HAT 1.71 4.26 4.96 7.63 S24 10000 PUY HAT 1.88 4.45 5.13 6.58
* KER = Kermadec, NHB = New Hebrides, PUY = Puysegur, SCH = South Chile, TGA = Tonga
^ HAT = Highest Astronomical Tide, MSL = Mean Sea Level
# Tsunami Wave Height is measured as height of tsunami wave crest above still water level – see Glossary
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APPENDIX C
C.3 Botany Bay
Scenario #
ARI (years)
Source Zone *
Water Level ^
Maximum Wave Height# (m) Max Run-up (mAHD)
100m depth
20m depth
5m depth
S1 200 KER HAT 0.38 0.50 0.61 1.96 S2 200 NHB HAT 0.41 0.68 0.71 2.64 S3 200 PUY HAT 0.4 0.63 0.68 2.19 S4 200 SCH HAT 0.39 0.34 0.52 1.86 S5 200 TGA HAT 0.36 0.52 0.53 1.84 S6 500 KER HAT 0.55 0.69 0.85 2.22 S7 500 NHB HAT 0.62 0.77 0.96 3.20 S8 500 PUY HAT 0.57 0.88 0.95 2.58 S9 500 TGA HAT 0.59 1.25 1.28 2.20 S10 1000 KER HAT 0.76 0.82 1.22 2.69 S11 1000 NHB HAT 0.89 1.07 1.35 3.64 S12 1000 PUY HAT 0.69 1.04 1.12 2.79 S13 2000 KER HAT 1.14 1.24 1.82 3.28 S14 2000 NHB HAT 1.15 1.30 1.65 3.87 S15 2000 PUY HAT 1.08 1.59 1.74 3.50 S16 2000 KER MSL 1.14 1.22 1.89 2.92 S17 2000 NHB MSL 1.15 1.27 1.52 3.23 S18 2000 PUY MSL 1.08 1.59 1.62 2.83 S19 5000 NHB HAT 1.6 1.77 2.18 4.06 S20 5000 PUY HAT 1.38 2.01 2.23 3.91 S21 5000 NHB MSL 1.6 1.74 2.17 3.73 S22 5000 PUY MSL 1.38 2.01 2.12 3.33 S23 10000 NHB HAT 1.89 2.04 2.89 4.55 S24 10000 PUY HAT 1.95 2.81 3.11 4.87
* KER = Kermadec, NHB = New Hebrides, PUY = Puysegur, SCH = South Chile, TGA = Tonga
^ HAT = Highest Astronomical Tide, MSL = Mean Sea Level
# Tsunami Wave Height is measured as height of tsunami wave crest above still water level – see Glossary
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APPENDIX C
C.4 Wollongong
Scenario #
ARI (years)
Source Zone *
Water Level ^
Maximum Wave Height# (m) Max Run-up (mAHD)
100m depth
20m depth
5m depth
S1 200 KER HAT 0.39 1.12 1.06 2.53 S2 200 NHB HAT 0.3 0.52 0.65 1.88 S3 200 PUY HAT 0.41 0.85 1.12 2.37 S4 200 SCH HAT 0.37 0.71 0.77 1.84 S5 200 TGA HAT 0.35 0.78 0.89 1.97 S6 500 KER HAT 0.56 1.61 1.51 3.11 S7 500 NHB HAT 0.54 1.00 1.22 2.54 S8 500 PUY HAT 0.65 1.46 1.84 3.15 S9 500 TGA HAT 0.56 1.44 1.43 2.78 S10 1000 KER HAT 0.74 2.30 2.43 3.53 S11 1000 NHB HAT 0.73 1.42 1.78 3.23 S12 1000 PUY HAT 0.85 1.99 2.44 3.75 S13 2000 KER HAT 1 2.70 2.65 4.22 S14 2000 NHB HAT 1.01 1.99 2.50 4.32 S15 2000 PUY HAT 1.03 2.33 2.84 4.12 S16 2000 KER MSL 1 2.82 2.85 3.99 S17 2000 NHB MSL 1.01 2.22 2.91 3.63 S18 2000 PUY MSL 1.03 2.27 2.96 3.49 S19 5000 NHB HAT 1.55 2.97 3.63 5.20 S20 5000 PUY HAT 1.32 2.89 3.52 4.82 S21 5000 NHB MSL 1.55 3.28 3.73 4.74 S22 5000 PUY MSL 1.32 2.84 3.67 4.12 S23 10000 NHB HAT 2.05 4.26 4.98 7.07 S24 10000 PUY HAT 1.86 4.00 4.80 6.17
* KER = Kermadec, NHB = New Hebrides, PUY = Puysegur, SCH = South Chile, TGA = Tonga
^ HAT = Highest Astronomical Tide, MSL = Mean Sea Level
# Tsunami Wave Height is measured as height of tsunami wave crest above still water level – see Glossary
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APPENDIX C
C.5 Merimbula
Scenario #
ARI (years)
Source Zone *
Water Level ^
Maximum Wave Height# (m) Max Run-up (mAHD)
100m depth
20m depth
5m depth
S1 200 KER HAT 0.38 1.62 1.66 2.08 S2 200 NHB HAT 0.31 1.15 1.25 2.31 S3 200 PUY HAT 0.39 1.01 1.06 2.08 S4 200 SCH HAT 0.34 0.96 0.99 1.80 S5 200 TGA HAT 0.33 1.35 1.50 2.25 S6 500 KER HAT 0.56 2.25 2.30 2.64 S7 500 NHB HAT 0.57 2.30 2.55 3.56 S8 500 PUY HAT 0.56 1.39 1.46 2.54 S9 500 TGA HAT 0.49 1.87 2.10 2.84 S10 1000 KER HAT 0.75 2.85 2.98 3.36 S11 1000 NHB HAT 0.69 2.61 2.92 3.99 S12 1000 PUY HAT 0.79 1.96 1.94 3.20 S13 2000 KER HAT 1.06 3.87 4.09 4.36 S14 2000 NHB HAT 0.87 3.11 3.53 4.72 S15 2000 PUY HAT 0.95 2.51 2.57 3.62 S16 2000 KER MSL 1.06 3.83 3.93 5.02 S17 2000 NHB MSL 0.87 3.10 3.46 3.93 S18 2000 PUY MSL 0.95 2.43 2.61 3.60 S19 5000 NHB HAT 1.26 4.20 4.71 5.98 S20 5000 PUY HAT 1.35 3.50 3.69 4.78 S21 5000 NHB MSL 1.26 4.22 4.67 5.34 S22 5000 PUY MSL 1.35 3.41 3.70 4.68 S23 10000 NHB HAT 1.68 5.56 6.34 7.20 S24 10000 PUY HAT 1.92 4.75 5.06 6.36
* KER = Kermadec, NHB = New Hebrides, PUY = Puysegur, SCH = South Chile, TGA = Tonga
^ HAT = Highest Astronomical Tide, MSL = Mean Sea Level
# Tsunami Wave Height is measured as height of tsunami wave crest above still water level – see Glossary
Appendix D – Electronic Appendix
Tsunami Scenario Mapping and Time
Series Plots
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APPENDIX D
MODEL OUTPUT FOR EACH SIMULATION
A standard naming convention is used for each model output presentation as follows:-
Mapping: Site-Scenario#-Parameter-Frame.pdf
Time Series: Site-Scenario#-TS.pdf
Site
LMQ = Lake Macquaire/Swansea MLY = Manly BBY = Botany Bay WPK = Wollongong/Port Kembla MBA = Merimbula
Scenario#
Scenario #
ARI (years)
Source Zone *
Water Level ^
Scenario #
ARI (years)
Source Zone *
Water Level ^
S1 200 KER HAT S13 2000 KER HAT
S2 200 NHB HAT S14 2000 NHB HAT
S3 200 PUY HAT S15 2000 PUY HAT
S4 200 SCH HAT S16 2000 KER MSL
S5 200 TGA HAT S17 2000 NHB MSL
S6 500 KER HAT S18 2000 PUY MSL
S7 500 NHB HAT S19 5000 NHB HAT
S8 500 PUY HAT S20 5000 PUY HAT
S9 500 TGA HAT S21 5000 NHB MSL
S10 1000 KER HAT S22 5000 PUY MSL
S11 1000 NHB HAT S23 10000 NHB HAT
S12 1000 PUY HAT S24 10000 PUY HAT
* KER = Kermadec, NHB = New Hebrides, PUY = Puysegur, SCH = South Chile, TGA = Tonga
^ HAT = Highest Astronomical Tide, MSL = Mean Sea Level
Parameter
Haz = Hydraulic Hazard IBL = Bed Level Vel = Current Speed
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APPENDIX D
WDe = Water Depth WeD = Wet Duration WLe = Water Level
Frame
Frame number and location is presented in figure where Frame is denoted as "ALL".
Appendix E
Site Vulnerability Calculations
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APPENDIX E
Table E.1: Vulnerability Calculations Suburb Swansea Manly Kurnell Cronulla Wollonong Pt Kembla Merimbula Pambula
Postcode 2281 2095 2231 2230 2500 2505 2548 2549
Stage 2 Site LMQ MLY BBY BBY WPK WPK MBA MBA Continental Slope (100m to 5m depth) 0.005482 0.008218 0.010428 0.010428 0.006547 0.006547 0.004614 0.004614
Total Cadastral Lots below 5mMSL 1798 781 977 340 613 97 320 26
ARI (yrs) Tsu-DAT Wave Height @ 100m water depth (m)
200 0.40 0.37 0.39 0.39 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32
500 0.64 0.50 0.57 0.57 0.59 0.59 0.57 0.57
1000 0.88 0.76 0.81 0.81 0.83 0.83 0.70 0.70
2000 1.08 1.03 1.12 1.12 1.02 1.02 0.99 0.99
5000 1.55 1.38 1.49 1.49 1.51 1.51 1.48 1.48
10000 1.85 1.74 1.94 1.94 1.91 1.91 1.97 1.97
ARI (yrs) Estimated Wave Height (m) @ 5m Water depth
200 1.62 1.14 1.02 1.02 1.18 1.18 1.51 1.51
500 2.48 1.49 1.41 1.41 2.00 2.00 2.52 2.52
1000 3.32 2.15 1.91 1.91 2.73 2.73 3.05 3.05
2000 4.03 2.84 2.57 2.57 3.33 3.33 4.23 4.23
5000 5.69 3.74 3.35 3.35 4.84 4.84 6.22 6.22
10000 6.75 4.66 4.31 4.31 6.07 6.07 8.21 8.21
ARI (yrs) Estimated Wave Crest Level (mMSL) @ 5m Water depth ( mean run-up height mMSL)
200 2.72 2.24 2.12 2.12 2.28 2.28 2.61 2.61
500 3.58 2.59 2.51 2.51 3.10 3.10 3.62 3.62
1000 4.42 3.25 3.01 3.01 3.83 3.83 4.15 4.15
2000 5.13 3.94 3.67 3.67 4.43 4.43 5.33 5.33
5000 6.79 4.84 4.45 4.45 5.94 5.94 7.32 7.32
10000 7.85 5.76 5.41 5.41 7.17 7.17 9.31 9.31
ARI (yrs) Estimated % of Properties below 5mMSL Affected by Inundation
200 54% 45% 42% 42% 46% 46% 52% 52%
500 72% 52% 50% 50% 62% 62% 72% 72%
1000 88% 65% 60% 60% 77% 77% 83% 83%
2000 103% 79% 73% 73% 89% 89% 107% 107%
5000 136% 97% 89% 89% 119% 119% 146% 146%
10000 157% 115% 108% 108% 143% 143% 186% 186%
ARI (yrs) Estimated Lots Affected by Inundation
200 1268 245 289 132 196 31 122 9
500 1671 283 343 157 266 42 170 13
1000 2063 356 412 188 329 52 195 15
2000 2391 431 502 229 381 60 250 19
5000 3168 529 609 278 510 81 343 27
10000 3664 630 740 338 615 97 437 34
