21/19156/158260 Camden Valley Way upgrade between Cobbitty Road and Cowpasture RoadReview of Environmental Factors

Appendix I

Strategic and Intersection Modelling Report

CAMDEN VALLEY WAY Strategic and Intersection Modelling Report Cowpasture Road to Cobbitty Road APRIL 2010

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Table of Contents

1 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................................... 2

2 RTA STRATEGIC TRAFFIC MODEL (EMME MODEL) ..................................................... 2

2.1 LAND USE .............................................................................................................................. 2

2.2 Road Safety 2

3 MODELLING METHODOLOGY ............................................................................................. 3

3.1 STRATEGIC MODEL RESULTS ................................................................................................. 7

4 INTERSECTION ANALYSIS ................................................................................................... 14

5 U TURN FACILITIES ............................................................................................................... 19

APPENDIX A Detailed SIDRA Output for Modelled Intersections in 2016 and 2026 AM

and PM Peak Periods ................................................................................................................ 20

List of Tables

TABLE 3-1 STM HOUSEHOLD AND EMPLOYMENT FORECASTS FOR SOUTH WEST GROWTH CENTRE

ZONES .............................................................................................................................................. 5

TABLE 3-2 2016 FORECASTED LINK VOLUMES OF CAMDEN VALLEY WAY .............................................. 7

TABLE 3-3 2026 FORECASTED LINK VOLUMES OF CAMDEN VALLEY WAY .............................................. 9

TABLE 4-1 LEVEL OF SERVICE CRITERIA FOR INTERSECTIONS* .............................................................. 14

TABLE 4-2 2016 SUMMARY OF SIDRA INTERSECTION MODELLING ...................................................... 18

TABLE 4-3 2026 SUMMARY OF SIDRA INTERSECTION MODELLING ...................................................... 19

List of Figures

FIGURE 3-1 SOUTH WEST GROWTH CENTRE PRECINCTS AND TRAVEL ZONES .......................................... 6

FIGURE 4-1 INTERSECTION LAYOUTS MODELLED IN SIDRA .................................................................. 16

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1 INTRODUCTION Camden Valley Way essentially forms the eastern boundary of the South West

Growth Centre and will become a “primary arterial” road serving the growth centre in

the ultimate road hierarchy envisaged for the area. This report summarises the

strategic traffic modelling undertaken for the purpose of the Camden Valley Way

concept design development by Sydney Infrastructure Development Section. It also

presents modelling key intersections along Camden Valley Way from Cowpasture

Road to Cobbitty Road.

2 RTA STRATEGIC TRAFFIC MODEL (EMME MODEL)

The RTA strategic traffic model is based on the Transport & Infrastructure –

Transport Data Centre (TDC) Sydney Strategic Travel Model (STM). The TDC STM

is a standard four-step transport model (i.e. trip generation, trip distribution, mode

choice and assignment). In order to represent travel data at a local geographic level,

the traffic model is divided into travel zones, which represent reasonably homogenous

areas generally delineated by physical features such as roads, railways and rivers. The

model encompasses 1129 origin and destination zones that describe travel demand

across the network based on data derived from the Australian Bureau of Statistics

(ABS) census Journey to Work (JTW) and TDC Household Travel Surveys (HTS).

The RTA model zone system is based on the TDC Tz01 travel zone system in which

zones are subdivisions of Statistical Local Areas (SLAs) and comprises a number of

Census Collection Districts. The TDC Tz01 zone system contains some large zones in

terms of geographical and future sociodemographic size (and hence the number of

trips generated in each zone) and the RTA therefore undertakes a process of

refinement (“zone-splitting”), particularly in areas of major development (for example

the North West and South West Growth Centres). The disaggregation of large zones is

an important step in the modelling process as it facilitates a more realistic loading of

future demand across the model network.

2.1 Land Use The projected household and employment forecasts (in ten year increments) upon

which the modelling is based for the south west growth centre zones are provided in

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Table 3-1. Figure 3-1 shows the south west growth centre precincts overlaying the

travel zones.

Table 3-1 shows that the projected number of households in 2016 and 2026 represents

some 20% and 72% of that in 2031 for the south west growth centre zones. The

projected employment forecasts in 2016 and 2026 represent some 42% and 87% of

that in 2031.

2.2 Road Safety The road data of Camden Valley Way from Cowpasture Road to Cobbitty Road for

the last 5 years (2004 to 2008) with AADT of 20,820 has been investigated.

There were 259 accidents, resulted in 2 fatalities, 120 of which were injury crashes

and 137 non-injury crashes.

Investigations further showed that out of 259 accidents there were 241 car, 65 light

truck, 17 rigid truck, 3 bus, 1 pedestrian, 1 pedal cycle, 8 motor cycle and 19 heavy

vehicle crashes.

There were 126 intersection and 133 non-intersection crashes and 31 single vehicle

and 228 multi-vehicles collisions.

The crash rate works out to be 63.7 per 100 MVK and 30.00 casualty crash rate.

Crash rate per km per year is 1.19.

3 MODELLING METHODOLOGY For the purpose of the Camden Valley Way concept design development the RTA

strategic traffic model was run for 2016 and 2026 in both AM and PM peak periods.

Peak periods modelled are 7:00 – 9:00 AM and 4:00 – 6:00 PM. Intersection turning

volumes were extracted from Emme model and input into an intersection analysis

software to assess the performance of key intersections along Camden Valley Way

under the proposed land use and network configuration. SIDRA intersection software

was used for modelling these intersections.

The assumed future road networks for 2016 and 2026 are provided in pages 8 to 11.

The assumptions made regarding a future network model are implicit to the output

results. Changes to the location or capacity of future network links will invariably

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alter these results, as would changes to the population and employment forecasts

presented in Table 3-1. As more detailed planning work at a precinct level is

undertaken and becomes available it will be appropriate to revisit these future network

and land use assumptions; and re-run the strategic and intersection models if

appropriate.

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Table 3-1 STM Household and Employment Forecasts for South West Growth Centre Zones

Zone Name Households Employment 2006 2016 2026 2031 2006 2016 2026 2031 366 Edmondson Park 512 2627 8112 8112 398 1,167 1,408 1,520 369 Cobbitty nth / Marylands wst /

Oran Park wst 78 902 5382 6924 0 160 1,000 1,000

717 Oran Park / Marylands est 76 1523 7383 9119 20 2,000 4,600 4,900 588 Cobbitty est / Oran Park

southwest 63 687 2067 2259 20 24 500 500

584 Smeaton Grange / Badgally sth 1771 2436 3518 3518 2,414 4,842 7,000 7,000 664 Catherine Field / Badgally nth 294 1529 5238 7738 1,227 2,017 4,197 4,300 665 Leppington South / Catherine f.

North 299 299 2759 5759 312 400 1,000 1,180

667 Rossmore sth / Catherine field North

404 404 1644 3094 134 153 660 1,159

666+306661 Leppington nth + East Leppington

236 301 3741 6668 298 851 2,374 3,981

675 Bringelly nth/ North Bringelly/ Bringelly ind

287 287 287 287 254 283 292 292

668 Lowes Creek / Bringelly sth 113 163 2213 4886 304 342 4,000 4,000 671 Austral sth / Leppington North 686 1511 7891 9749 790 921 1,591 2,308 672 Cecil Park / Austral nth 111 471 2751 3831 143 167 872 1,818 673 Kemps Creek / North Rossmore

nth 437 437 437 1387 796 898 952 1,416

674 Rossmore nth / North Rossmore sth

464 464 464 1664 577 644 677 681

718 Badgerys Creek / Bringelly ind 133 133 133 133 269 290 292 300 368 Luddenham 266 266 266 266 106 126 133 134 676 Greendale 291 291 291 291 161 180 189 191 Total 6521 14731 54577 75685 8223 15464 31736 36680

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Figure 3-1 South West Growth Centre Precincts and Travel Zones

306661

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3.1 Strategic Model Results The resulting auto volume maps for the years 2016 and 2026 in the AM and PM peak

periods are provided on pages 8 to 11. Average classified data count

Average Weekday Northbound Light Heavy Total % Heavy7am-10pm 8169 679 8848 7.7%10pm-7am 2816 334 3150 10.6%Total 10985 1013 11998 8.4% Southbound Light Heavy Total % Heavy7am-10pm 9269 665 9934 6.7%10pm-7am 978 97 1075 9.0%Total 10247 762 11009 6.9% Total Light Heavy Total % Heavy7am-10pm 17438 1344 18782 7.2%10pm-7am 3794 431 4225 10.2%Total 21232 1775 23008 7.7%

AADT Data

Location 2008 2016 2026South Cowpasture Rd 41425 50603South Denham Court/Ingleburn Rds 40658 44207South Heath Rd (station 85.019) 20217 40586 45942South Dwyer Rd 42426 58643South Raby Rd 46391 63837South Catherine Field Rd 50070 56407South Springfield Rd 50752 44909

Table 3-2 and Table 3-3 summarise 2016 and 2026 forecasted link volumes of

different sections of Camden Valley Way in the AM (7:00 – 9:00) and PM (4:00 –

6:00) peak periods.

Average classified data count

Average Weekday

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Northbound Light Heavy Total % Heavy7am-10pm 8169 679 8848 7.7%10pm-7am 2816 334 3150 10.6%Total 10985 1013 11998 8.4% Southbound Light Heavy Total % Heavy7am-10pm 9269 665 9934 6.7%10pm-7am 978 97 1075 9.0%Total 10247 762 11009 6.9% Total Light Heavy Total % Heavy7am-10pm 17438 1344 18782 7.2%10pm-7am 3794 431 4225 10.2%Total 21232 1775 23008 7.7%

AADT Data

Location 2008 2016 2026South Cowpasture Rd 41425 50603South Denham Court/Ingleburn Rds 40658 44207South Heath Rd (station 85.019) 20217 40586 45942South Dwyer Rd 42426 58643South Raby Rd 46391 63837South Catherine Field Rd 50070 56407South Springfield Rd 50752 44909

Table 3-2 and Table 3-3 show that the traffic peak direction along Camden valley

Way is northbound in the AM peak and southbound in the PM peak. In 2016 Camden

Valley Way forecasted traffic ranges from 3891 to 5189 in the AM peak period and

from 4435 to 5534 in the PM peak period in the peak direction. In 2026 forecasted

traffic along Camden Valley Way ranges from 4183 to 6741 in the AM peak period

and from 4094 to 6815 in the PM peak period in the peak direction.

Strategic Modelling output indicates that Camden Valley Way would be operating

close to or at capacity, in the peak direction, south of Raby Road in 2016. In 2026

Camden valley Way would be operating close to or at capacity from Cowpasture

Road to St Andrews Road and over capacity from St Andrews Road to Springfield

Road in the peak direction. This indicates that Camden Valley Way would need to be

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widened to 6 lanes from Cowpasture Road to Springfield Road by 2026 (based on

current land use forecasts and network assumptions) to cater for the additional

generated traffic. The effective life of a four lane Camden Valley Way carriageway is

very sensitive to any change in these future year land use forecasts.

Average classified data count

Average Weekday Northbound Light Heavy Total % Heavy7am-10pm 8169 679 8848 7.7%10pm-7am 2816 334 3150 10.6%Total 10985 1013 11998 8.4% Southbound Light Heavy Total % Heavy7am-10pm 9269 665 9934 6.7%10pm-7am 978 97 1075 9.0%Total 10247 762 11009 6.9% Total Light Heavy Total % Heavy7am-10pm 17438 1344 18782 7.2%10pm-7am 3794 431 4225 10.2%Total 21232 1775 23008 7.7%

AADT Data

Location 2008 2016 2026South Cowpasture Rd 41425 50603South Denham Court/Ingleburn Rds 40658 44207South Heath Rd (station 85.019) 20217 40586 45942South Dwyer Rd 42426 58643South Raby Rd 46391 63837South Catherine Field Rd 50070 56407South Springfield Rd 50752 44909

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Table 3-2 2016 Forecasted Link Volumes of Camden Valley Way

Location Northbound Southbound

AM PM AM PM

South Cowpasture Rd 3891 2396 2482 4435

South Denham Court/Ingleburn Rds

4340 2114 1915 4435

South Heath Rd 4367 2076 1877 4508

South Dwyer Rd 4424 2236 2103 4654

South Raby Rd 4815 2619 2322 5088

South Catherine Field Rd 5092 3123 2611 5422

South Springfield Rd 5189 3122 2619 5534

Table 3-3 2026 Forecasted Link Volumes of Camden Valley Way

Location Northbound Southbound

AM PM AM PM

South Cowpasture Rd 5214 2280 2571 5208

South Denham Court/Ingleburn Rds

4872 2131 1929 4406

South Heath Rd 4916 2635 2152 4895

South Dwyer Rd 5718 3457 3304 5960

South Raby Rd 6741 3599 3080 6815

South Catherine Field Rd 5677 3256 3001 5517

South Springfield Rd 4183 2980 2726 4094

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4 INTERSECTION ANALYSIS SIDRA Software package has been used to assess the likely performance of key

intersections along Camden Valley Way in 2016 and 2026 for both AM and PM peak

periods. These intersections are:

Camden Valley Way – Cowpasture Road

Camden Valley Way – Denham Court/Ingleburn Roads

Camden Valley Way – Heath Road

Camden Valley Way – St Andrews Road

Camden Valley Way – Raby Road

Camden Valley Way – Catherine Field Road

Camden Valley Way – Springfield Road

The assessment of intersection operations is based on criteria outlined in Table 4-1 , as

defined in the RTA Guide to Traffic Generating Developments. These criteria are average

vehicle delay and level of service. The degree of saturation for every intersection was

also extracted from the models and reported

Table 4-1 Level of Service Criteria for Intersections*

Level of Service

Average Delay per Vehicle (secs/veh)

Traffic Signals, Roundabout

Give Way & Stop Signs

A < 14 Good operation Good operation

B 15 to 28 Good with acceptable delays & spare capacity

Acceptable delays & spare capacity

C 29 to 42 Satisfactory Satisfactory, but accident study

required

D 43 to 56 Operating near capacity Near capacity & accident study

required

E 57 to 70 At capacity; at signals, incidents will cause excessive delays

Roundabouts require other control mode

At capacity, requires other control mode

F > 70 Forced flow or flow breakdown. Traffic is arriving at a rate higher than it can be discharged. Queues form and do not dissipate - they may extend upstream for

considerable distances.

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* Source: Guide to Traffic Generating Developments, October 2002.

Existing Capacity of CVW:

The capacity of the existing CVW is a little difficult to define. In its present semi-

rural environment, we are assuming a capacity of 1330 to 1400 vehicles per lane per

hour. As the surrounding areas develop, and more intersections are constructed along

the route, its effective capacity would probably reduce to 1100 to 1200 vehicles per

lane per hour.

The average delay assessed for signalised intersections is over all movements. For

priority intersections, the critical criterion for assessment is the movement with the

highest delay per vehicle. Average delay is expressed in seconds per vehicle.

It is generally accepted that in the long term, when future conditions have been taken into

account, Level of Service would be D or better.

Intersection layouts modelled are provided in

Figure 4-1.

The following general assumptions were made to model the two hour strategic peak

volumes in Sidra Intersection:

Unit Time for Volumes = 120 secs

Peak Flow Period = 60 secs

Peak Flow Factor = 100 %

Heavy Vehicle Percentage = 3.5 %

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Figure 4-1 Intersection Layouts Modelled in SIDRA

Camden Valley Way – Cowpasture Road Camden Valley Way – Dwyer Road

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Camden Valley Way – Denham Court/Ingleburn Roads

Camden Valley Way – Raby Road

Camden Valley Way – Heath Road Camden Valley Way – Catherine Field Road

Camden Valley Way – St Andrews Road

Camden Valley Way – Springfield Road

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Summary of intersection performance results for the years 2016 and 2026 is provided

in Table 4-2 and Table 4-3 respectively for both AM and PM peak periods. Detailed

SIDRA modelling output is presented in Appendix A.

Intersection modelling results indicate that the modelled intersections along Camden Valley

Way would operate at acceptable Level of Service (LoS) in 2016. In 2026 Raby Road

intersection would have excessive delays in the PM peak period and would be

operating at unacceptable Level of Service (LoS F). Also, Catherine Field Road

intersection would be operating at unacceptable Level of Service (LoS F and E in the

AM and PM Peak periods respectively) with long delays.

Table 4-2 2016 Summary of SIDRA Intersection Modelling

Intersection Peak Degree of Saturation

Average Control Delay (sec)

Level of Service

Level of Service (Worst Movement)

Cowpasture Rd

AM PM

0.9 0.9

18 14

B A

D D

Denham Court – Ingleburn Rds

AM PM

0.9 0.9

29 24

C B

F F

Heath Rd

AM PM

0.9 0.9

16 21

B B

F F

St Andrews Rd

AM PM

0.9 0.9

9 10

A A

D F

Raby Rd

AM PM

0.9 0.9

19 18

B B

C F

Catherine Field Rd

AM PM

0.9 1

22 42

B C

F F

Springfield Rd

AM PM

0.9 1

12 23

A B

F F

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Table 4-3 2026 Summary of SIDRA Intersection Modelling

Intersection Peak Degree of Saturation

Average Control Delay (sec)

Level of Service

Level of Service (Worst Movement)

Cowpasture Rd

AM PM

0.9 0.9

18 18

B B

F E

Denham Court – Ingleburn Rds

AM PM

1 0.9

31 30

C C

F F

Heath Rd

AM PM

0.9 0.9

27 21

B B

F F

St Andrews Rd

AM PM

0.9 0.9

14 18

A B

D F

Raby Rd

AM PM

0.9 1.4

26 190

B F

E F

Catherine Field Rd

AM PM

1.1 1

108 63

F E

F F

Springfield Rd

AM PM

1 0.9

41 27

C B

E E

Dwyer Rd AM PM

1.0 0.9

54 13

D A

F F

5 U TURN FACILITIES The concept design allowed for U turn facilities at the intersections of Camden Valley way with Heath Road, St Andrews Road, Raby Road, Catherine Field Road and Springfield Road. In 2026 Emme Model these intersections were modelled as 4 way with the exception of Raby Road and St Andrews Road intersections, which were modelled as T intersections.

For the purpose of this study the capacity of the U turn facility was roughly analysed based on the storage of U turn facilities and the common cycle time.

Based on the average space available in the provided U turn facilities, the maximum number of vehicles that could be stored in the facility would be some 6 vehicles per cycle. Assuming that the common cycle time of Camden valley Way intersections is some 160 seconds and the facility’s phase will be called once every cycle, the maximum number of vehicles that could use the U turn facility would be some 130 vehicles per hour.

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APPENDIX A

Detailed SIDRA Output for Modelled Intersections in 2016 and 2026 AM and PM Peak Periods

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Camden Valley Way – Cowpasture Road Intersection

Average control delay per vehicle, or pedestrian delay (seconds)

2016 AM

2016 PM

2026 AM

2026 PM

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Camden Valley Way – Denham Court/Ingleburn Roads Intersection

Average control delay per vehicle, or pedestrian delay (seconds)

2016 AM

2016 PM

2026 AM

2026 PM

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Camden Valley Way – Heath Road Intersection

Average control delay per vehicle, or pedestrian delay (seconds)

2016 AM

2016 PM

2026 AM

2026 PM

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Camden Valley Way – St Andrews Road Intersection

Average control delay per vehicle, or pedestrian delay (seconds)

2016 AM

2016 PM

2026 AM

2026 PM

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Camden Valley Way – Raby Road Intersection

Average control delay per vehicle, or pedestrian delay (seconds)

2016 AM

2016 PM

2026 AM

2026 PM

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Camden Valley Way – Catherine Field Road Intersection

Average control delay per vehicle, or pedestrian delay (seconds)

2016 AM

2016 PM

2026 AM

2026 PM

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Camden Valley Way – Springfield Road Intersection

Average control delay per vehicle, or pedestrian delay (seconds)

2016 AM

2016 PM

2026 AM

2026 PM

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Camden Valley Way – Dwyer Road Intersection

Average control delay per vehicle, or pedestrian delay (seconds)

2026 AM

2026 PM

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