Traffic Modelling and Intersection Analysis...2014/09/04 · AECOM Traffic Modelling and...

$Page 1: Traffic Modelling and Intersection Analysis...2014/09/04 · AECOM Traffic Modelling and Intersection Analysis Commercial-in-Confidence \\aumel1fp001\projects\60313908\6. Draft Docs\6.1$
\\aumel1fp001\projects\60313908\6. Draft Docs\6.1 Reports\2014-09-04 Final Report.docx Revision 1 – 04-Sep-2014 Prepared for – City of Whittlesea – ABN: 72 431 091 058

City of Whittlesea

04-Sep-2014

Commercial-in-Confidence

Traffic Modelling and Intersection Analysis

Wollert Precinct Structure Plan

AECOM





Wollert Precinct Structure Plan

Client: City of Whittlesea

ABN: 72 431 091 058

Prepared by

AECOM Australia Pty Ltd

Level 9, 8 Exhibition Street, Melbourne VIC 3000, Australia

T +61 3 9653 1234 F +61 3 9654 7117 www.aecom.com

ABN 20 093 846 925

04-Sep-2014

Job No.: 60313908

AECOM in Australia and New Zealand is certified to the latest version of ISO9001, ISO14001, AS/NZS4801 and OHSAS18001.

© AECOM Australia Pty Ltd (AECOM). All rights reserved.

AECOM has prepared this document for the sole use of the Client and for a specific purpose, each as expressly stated in the document. No other

party should rely on this document without the prior written consent of AECOM. AECOM undertakes no duty, nor accepts any responsibility, to any

third party who may rely upon or use this document. This document has been prepared based on the Client’s description of its requirements and

AECOM’s experience, having regard to assumptions that AECOM can reasonably be expected to make in accordance with sound professional

principles. AECOM may also have relied upon information provided by the Client and other third parties to prepare this document, some of which

may not have been verified. Subject to the above conditions, this document may be transmitted, reproduced or disseminated only in its entirety.

AECOM




Quality Information

Document Traffic Modelling and Intersection Analysis

Ref 60313908

Date 04-Sep-2014

Prepared by Ian Hopkins, Jarrod Malone

Reviewed by Geoff Ford & Catherine Wilms

Revision History

Revision Revision

Date Details

Authorised

Name/Position Signature

A 25-Jul-2014 Draft Geoff Ford

Principal Transport

Analyst

B 27-Aug-2014 Final Draft incorporating client

comments

Paris Brunton

Principal Transport

Analyst

0 03-Sep-2014 Final Report Paris Brunton

Principal Transport

Analyst

1 04-Sep-2014 Final Report - Incorporates

additional comments

Paris Brunton

Principal Transport

Analyst

AECOM




Table of Contents

Executive Summary i 1.0 Introduction 1

1.1 Background 1 1.2 Objectives 1 1.3 Methodology 1

2.0 Review of VITM 2 2.1 VITM northern growth areas model 2 2.2 Zones 2 2.3 Networks 5 2.4 Public transport services 7 2.5 Land Use 9

3.0 Transport modelling for future scenarios 11 3.1 Introduction 11 3.2 Theme 3: The role of rail 11 3.3 Reference case 11

3.3.1 Overview results 11 3.3.2 Overview observations on demand and design relationship 16 3.3.3 AM Peak period travel patterns on specific links 16

3.4 Theme 1: East-west connections to the E6 corridor 19 3.4.1 Scenario 1 – Summerhill Road E6 connection 19 3.4.2 Scenario 2 – Boundary Road E6 connection 21 3.4.3 Scenario 3 – Craigieburn Road E6 connection 23 3.4.4 Scenario 4 – Craigieburn Road and Boundary Road E6 connections 25

3.5 Theme Two: Arterial road design widths 27 3.5.1 Scenario 5 – Koukoura Drive, Summerhill Road four lanes 27 3.5.2 Scenario 6 – Koukoura Drive, Summerhill Road, Craigieburn Road four lanes 29 3.5.3 Travel speeds and level of service 31

3.6 Theme 3: The role of rail 32 3.6.1 Scenario 7 – No rail to Wollert 32

3.7 Interim Scenarios 35 3.8 Network performance 39

4.0 Intersection Analysis 43 4.1 Assumptions and Inputs 43

4.1.1 Modelling Program 43 4.1.2 Intersections 43 4.1.3 Traffic Volumes 45 4.1.4 Cycle Times 45 4.1.5 Road and Intersection Layouts 46 4.1.6 Signal Phasing 46 4.1.7 Additional Traffic Volumes from Public Transport Data 46

4.2 Intersection Outputs and Operation 47 4.3 Scenario 6 50

5.0 Summary and Conclusions 52 5.1 Summary of intersection analysis 52

Appendix A Intersection Results - Interim Scenario A

Appendix B Intersection Results – Ultimate Scenario – Reference Case B

Appendix C Intersection Results - Ultimate Scenario - Scenario 6 C

AECOM




List of Tables

Table 1 Number of zones by region of Melbourne 5 Table 2 Forecast population and employment by region 9 Table 3 Ultimate scenario AM peak trips to and from Wollert by mode and origin/destination

region 12 Table 4 Ultimate scenario AM peak trips to and from Wollert by mode and origin/destination

region by percentage 12 Table 5 Typical mid-block capacities for urban roads with interrupted flow 16 Table 6 Scenario 1 AM peak trips to and from Wollert by mode and origin/destination region 19 Table 7 Scenario 1 AM peak trips to and from Wollert by mode and origin/destination region by

percentages 19 Table 8 Scenario 2 AM peak trips to and from Wollert by mode and origin/destination region 21 Table 9 Scenario 2 AM peak trips to and from Wollert by mode and origin/destination region by





percentages 29 Table 18 Level of Service Criteria for cars on urban streets 31 Table 19 AM Peak Average Speed (km/h) for reference case and Scenarios 5 and 6 31 Table 20 Indicated LOS based on criteria in Table 18 32 Table 21 Scenario 7 AM peak trips to and from Wollert by mode and origin/destination region 32 Table 22 Scenario 7 AM peak trips to and from Wollert by mode and origin/destination region by

percentages 32 Table 23 Interim AM peak trips to and from Wollert by mode and origin/destination region 35 Table 24 Interim scenario AM peak trips to and from Wollert by mode and origin/destination region

by percentages 36 Table 25 AM Peak Vehicle Kilometres Travelled (VKT) 40 Table 26 AM Peak Vehicle Kilometres Travelled (VKT) – Change from reference case 40 Table 27 AM Peak Percentage of Vehicle Kilometres Travelled (VKT) with VCR greater than 0.6 41 Table 28 AM Peak Vehicle Hours Travelled (VHT) – Change from reference case 41 Table 29 AM Peak Vehicle Hours Travelled (VHT) – Change from reference case 42 Table 30 AM Peak Average Speed (km/h) 42 Table 31 Intersections in the study area and intersections assessed for different scenarios and

time periods 44 Table 32 AM Peak Additional Traffic Volumes from Public Transport Data 47 Table 33 PM Peak Additional Traffic Volumes from Public Transport Data 47 Table 34 Summary of Intersection Outputs: Interim and Ultimate Scenarios (Reference Case) 48 Table 35 Summary of Intersection Outputs: Ultimate Scenario – Scenario 6 50

AECOM




List of Figures

Figure 1 Wollert Structure Plan 2 Figure 2 Original VITM Zones 3 Figure 3 NGC VITM Zones 3 Figure 4 New VITM Zones 4 Figure 5 Aggregation of Zones 5 Figure 6 Key roads in Wollert 6 Figure 7 Number of lanes, Ultimate network 6 Figure 8 Posted speed, Ultimate network 7 Figure 9 Public transport services by AM peak headway 8 Figure 10 PTV supplied bus network for strategic modelling 8 Figure 11 Ultimate population and employment within Wollert 9 Figure 12 Interim population and employment within Wollert 10 Figure 13 Daily estimated vehicle volumes, ultimate network 13 Figure 14 AM peak volume capacity ratios, ultimate network 14 Figure 15 Daily public transport line loads 15 Figure 16 Comparison of recent actual and Wollert modelled station boardings for peer stations 15 Figure 17 Select link analysis: Boundary Road west of Epping Road 17 Figure 18 Select link analysis: Koukoura Drive north of Craigieburn Road 18 Figure 19 Select link analysis: Koukoura Drive north of Summerhill Road 18 Figure 20 Scenario 1 difference plot to Reference Case 20 Figure 21 AM peak volume capacity ratios, Scenario 1 network 20 Figure 22 Scenario 2 difference plot to Reference Case 22 Figure 23 AM peak volume capacity ratios, Scenario 2 network 22 Figure 24 Scenario 3 difference plot to Reference Case 24 Figure 25 AM peak volume capacity ratios, Scenario 3 network 24 Figure 26 Scenario 4 difference plot to Reference Case 26 Figure 27 AM peak volume capacity ratios, Scenario 4 network 26 Figure 28 Scenario 5 difference plot to Reference Case 28 Figure 29 AM peak volume capacity ratios, Scenario 5 network 28 Figure 30 Daily volume difference plot comparing Scenario 6 results to the reference case 30 Figure 31 AM peak volume capacity ratios, scenario 6 network 30 Figure 32 Scenario 7 difference plot to Reference Case (highway) 33 Figure 33 AM peak volume capacity ratios, Scenario 7 network 34 Figure 34 Scenario 7 daily public transport line loads 34 Figure 35 Scenario 7 difference plot to Reference Case (public transport) 35 Figure 36 Average weekday two way flows – Interim reference case – cars only 37 Figure 37 Change in weekday traffic Ultimate to Interim 37 Figure 38 AM peak volume capacity ratios, Interim scenario network 38 Figure 39 Daily public transport line loads (interim scenario) 38 Figure 40 Ultimate compared to Interim scenario difference plot (public transport) 39

AECOM




i

Executive Summary

AECOM Australia Pty Ltd (AECOM) was engaged by the City of Whittlesea’s to undertake detailed strategic

transport and SIDRA modelling for PSP 1070 (Wollert).

A review of the VITM model was produced to determine whether it was a suitable base to provide strategic

modelling for the various scenarios for Wollert PSP. Eight different scenarios (including reference case) were

modelled which included:

- Reference case

- Scenario 1 – Summerhill Road E6 connection

- Scenario 2 – Boundary Road E6 connection

- Scenario 3 – Craigieburn Road E6 connection

- Scenario 4 – Craigieburn Road and Boundary Road E6 connections

- Scenario 5 – Koukoura Drive, Summerhill Road four lanes

- Scenario 6 – Koukoura Drive, Summerhill Road, Craigieburn Road four lanes

- Scenario 7 – No rail to Wollert

Scenarios 1 to 4 were under the first theme of: East-West Connections to the E6 Corridor. The conclusion from

this theme is that it is the least effective interchange in terms of marginal impact when removed is the Summerhill

Road interchange; Boundary Road interchange is the most effective and has the greatest impact if not provided.

The Craigieburn Road interchange assists in encouraging traffic to more directly access Craigieburn and the

employment lands on Craigieburn Road.

Scenarios 5 and 6 were under the second theme of Arterial Road Design Widths. The conclusion from this theme

is that a three-lane cross section does not appear to be warranted on general vehicle traffic demand and network

performance grounds. Other factors that could be considered in determining the ultimate cross-section for

planning include:

- Whether road safety for all users would be improved with a particular cross-section

- Public transport priority needs, in particular whether strategic allocation of space is required to secure on-

road priority in the light of modelled congestion locations.

- Appropriate provision for overall network resilience in the event of disruptions on other trunk routes

Scenario 7 was under the third theme of The Role of Rail. The no rail scenario has a small negative impact on the

amount of car travel, but does not affect the modelled performance of the road network

For the intersection modelling, there were three scenarios that were modelled:

- Interim Scenario (for the year 2026),

- Ultimate Scenario – Using the Reference Case volumes (for the year 2046)

- Ultimate Scenario – Using Scenario 6 volumes.

Both the AM and PM peaks were modelled. All the required intersections were modelled in the AM Peak (which is

considered the highest peak) and selected intersections in the PM Peak. Using the strategic modelling data, a

factor of 55% was used to convert the strategic model data into one hourly peak data to be input into SIDRA.

The aim for the intersection performance is to maintain DOS not more than 0.85 and a cycle not more than 120

seconds. All intersections except intersection number 1 (in the evening peak period) meet these criteria for both

the Reference and Scenario 6 Ultimate year. The DOS is still under 1.0 which indicates that the intersection is

likely to cope with the traffic under either Reference or Scenario 6. This shows that the intersections can operate

efficiently with Koukoura Drive, Summerhill Road, Craigieburn Road being four lanes (Scenario 6).

There are a number of turning movements that have a LOS of E. The best outcome has been provided for each of

these intersections and the LOS given is due to the delay, not the queues. Given none of the delays are greater

than the cycle time; the majority are around 60 seconds and none greater than 72 seconds, this is deemed

acceptable.

AECOM




1

1.0 Introduction

1.1 Background

AECOM Australia Pty Ltd (AECOM) was engaged by the City of Whittlesea’s to undertake detailed strategic

transport and SIDRA modelling for PSP 1070 (Wollert).

The purpose of the modelling is to provide outputs to inform the scope of infrastructure required to be constructed

to such as the size and number of intersections and the cross-section of roads within the precinct and also be

inputs into the Infrastructure and Development Contributions Plans for the area.

The modelling work has been undertaken in close liaison with Metropolitan Planning Authority (MPA), City of

Whittlesea and VicRoads to confirm the assumptions, inputs and modelling processes.

1.2 Objectives

Key objectives of this study are:

- Review of the existing VITM, particularly focusing on the Wollert PSP and surrounding area for at least 1.6

kilometres

- Consider the proposed road network in the model, including the proposed bus network

- Consider the model zones and zone centroid links

- Review the Wollert draft urban structure plan, land use and proposed road network

- Consider the future development of Outer Metropolitan Ring Road and its impact on the road network at

construction

- Recommend adjustments/refinements to the Corridor model to better reflect the current proposed PSP

structure and ensure the surrounding road network reflects actual and proposed conditions as far as

possible

- Prepare the necessary input data and run the model for ultimate scenario (2046) and interim scenarios

(2026)

- Produce appropriate outputs of the model such as trips to/from the Wollert Precinct by mode, select link

analysis, VKT measures and public transport mode share

- Produce appropriate intersection analysis for the selected intersections for the interim and ultimate

scenarios.

1.3 Methodology

In order to achieve these objectives, the study scope of work comprised of three key parts, which this report

documents in the following sections. The key tasks undertaken were:

- A review and enhancement of VITM including examination and updating of road networks, public transport

services and zone structure. The objective of this work was to create a strategic transport model that could

be used to estimate traffic demand, including turning movements, for the road network in the Wollert PSP.

This work is documented in section 2.0 of this report

- Running the enhanced strategic transport model to test future year network and land use scenarios. The

objectives of this work were to develop an understanding of the transport infrastructure needs and

performance and also to provide detailed traffic inputs for detailed intersection modelling. This work is

documented in section 3.0 of this report

- Undertake SIDRA modelling of key intersections to determine the lane configuration and therefore road

space requirements. This work is documented in section 4.0 of this report.

AECOM




2

2.0 Review of VITM

2.1 VITM northern growth areas model

The standard Melbourne metropolitan version of VITM consists of 2959 zones, of which 2893 are internal to the

modelled area and the remainder external. In recent years the Metropolitan Planning Authority (MPA) has

managed the enhancement of standard VITM for the South Eastern, Western and Northern growth areas. A

version of the northern growth areas model developed for Quarry Hills by SKM was used as the starting point for

this study. This model had already undergone some enhancements around the Whittlesea growth areas

increasing the total number of zones in VITM to 3316.

2.2 Zones

The review of the existing VITM considered the level of zone disaggregation within and around the Wollert PSP

area. The zoning system had to be constructed in a way that distributes trips onto the local network in a

reasonable manner and takes into account particular land uses. It was desirable to construct zones that have

homogenous land use internally. For example, a town centre will be given its own zone to separate it from

residential zones. The structure plan for Wollert was the guiding document for designing the new zone system. A

simplified representation of the structure plan is shown in Figure 1.

Figure 2 shows the zone boundaries from the standard VITM, which has six zones covering the entire Wollert

PSP area. However, this standard metropolitan version of VITM had already been enhanced in the Wollert region

as part of the development of the Northern Growth Corridors model (NGC) by disaggregating zones.

Figure 3 shows the zones in Wollert from the NGC model, which increased the number of zones in Wollert from

six to twenty six.

Figure 1 Wollert Structure Plan

Structure Plan

Arterial Road

Local Road

E6 Corridor

Retail

Employment

Education

AECOM




3

Figure 2 Original VITM Zones

Figure 3 NGC VITM Zones

Standard VITM Zones

NGC VITM Zones

AECOM




4

The zone system within Wollert was further refined after reviewing the structure plan for Wollert. Zones were

disaggregated and moved to better reflect the locations of roads and the distribution of land use. Figure 4 shows

the disaggregated zones for the Wollert PSP. The number of zones increased from twenty six in the NGC model

to forty nine.

Figure 4 New VITM Zones

Disaggregating the zones in Wollert increased the total number of zones in the model from 3316 to 3335. This

further extended the run time. Depending on the specifications of the computer, this could take over two days to

complete a scenario. Therefore, in order to reduce the model run time, zones located far away from the study

area were aggregated to reduce the number of model calculations required and cut down the run time. Figure 5

shows the regions where zones were disaggregated, retained or aggregated. This shows that the NGC zones

were retained around the Wollert study area and down south past the Melbourne CBD. Major roads such as the

Eastern Freeway, the Westgate Freeway and the M80 are included in the NGC zone area. This ensures that the

major route choices involving trips that might influence travel behaviour in Wollert are modelled using either NGC

zones or finer. The total number of zones after aggregation totalled 1708.

Wollert PSP VITM Zones

AECOM




5

Figure 5 Aggregation of Zones

Table 1 shows the number of transport zones by the region of Melbourne and how these change from the

standard VITM to the NGC VITM and then the disaggregation and aggregation processes for the Wollert model.

Table 1 Number of zones by region of Melbourne

Region of Melbourne Standard VITM NGC VITM Disaggregated

Wollert Zones

Aggregated

remote Zones

Wollert 6 26 49 49

Whittlesea North of Wollert 74 104 100 100

Whittlesea South of Wollert 39 83 83 83

Central suburbs 195 195 195 195

Other northern suburbs 675 927 927 927

Rest of Melbourne 1905 1916 1916 289

External 65 65 65 65

Total 2959 3316 3335 1708

2.3 Networks

The study area comprises a grid of arterial and collector roads shown in Figure 6. In the reference case, Koukoura

Drive, Summerhill Road, and Craigieburn Road are all six-lane roads with an 80 kph speed limit. Epping Road is a

two-lane north-south road north of Craigieburn Road with a 60kph speed limit. Boundary Road, located between

Disaggregate zones

VITM NCG zones

Aggregated zones

AECOM




6

Summerhill and Craigieburn Roads, is a two-lane east-west road with a 60 kph speed limit. Summerhill Road,

Boundary Road and Craigieburn Road each have a full-movement interchange with the E6. Lanes and speed

limits are shown in Figure 7 and Figure 8 respectively.

Figure 6 Key roads in Wollert

Figure 7 Number of lanes, Ultimate network

Craigieburn Rd

Eppin

g R

d

E6

Summerhill Road

Boundary Rd

Kou

koura

Dr

3

3

3

3

11

1

1

1

1

1

1

2 22 2

22

1

1

3

3

22

3

3

3

3

33

3

3

3

3

22

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

11

3

3 3

3

3

3

3

3

2 2

1

13

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

1

1

3

3

11

3

3

11

21

2

3

33

3

3

3

2

3

3

1

1

11

1

22

2

21

21

11

1

2

2

2

221

2

2

22

22

2

111

1

11

1

1

11

11

2

2

2

2

21

2

2

2

11

1

1

1

2

22

2

2

2

1

1

22

21

21

2

2

22

22

12

22

22

2

2

2

22

3

3

111111111

1

11

1

11

11

2

0

0

1

1

00

0

0

1

1

1

1

1

11 2

2

2

2

33

3

3

3 3

3

3

11

3

3

11

3

3

11

11

1 1

3

3

1 1

3

3

1

1

1

1

1

1

11

3

3

1 1

11

22

1

1

11

11

11

11

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1 1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

11

1

1

1

1

3

3

1

1

1 11

1

1

111

2 2

2

2

22

1

1

1

1

11

11

11

3

3

11

11

1

1

1

1

11

11

2

2

3

3

3

3

2

2

11

1

1

1

1

2

2

2 2

22

1

1

1

1

11

11

1

1

1

11

1

11

11

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

33

11

1

1

11

33

33

11

11

2

2

11

1 1

11

1

1

1

1

1

1

1 1

111

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

11

11

1

1

1

11

1

1

1

1

1

11

1

1

1

1

11

11

1

1

11

1

1

1

1

1 1

11

1

1

1

11

1

1

1 11

1

1

11

1

11

1

2 2

11

1

1

1

1

1

1

11

11

1

1

1

1

4 lanes each way

3 lanes each way

2 lanes each way

1 lane each way

Key road

Other road

AECOM




7

Figure 8 Posted speed, Ultimate network

2.4 Public transport services

The public transport network specified in the model comprises:

- a suburban rail service from Wollert to the City Loop (direct service) in central Melbourne, assuming stations

at:

west side of Wollert Town Centre south of Boundary Rd

North of Harvest Home Road

North of O’Herns Rd

South of Cooper Street

The headways of the service were 10 minutes in the peak hour in the peak direction (city bound in the

AM, Wollert bound in the PM), and 20 mins all other times.

- a network of bus services based on Wollert Railway Station. The bus network includes services that extend

outside the study area, providing east-west connectivity. The network used in the VITM modelling is shown

in Figure 9 with the colours of the routes indicating the AM peak headways for the services. For clarity, the

bus routes are also shown, in a map prepared by Public Transport Victoria, in Figure 10. Note that this is a

more recent iteration than the network modelled. For example, the service from the east on Boundary Road

now runs more directly to the Wollert town centre. Nevertheless, the modelled network is generally

representative of the proposed coverage, connectivity and frequency of bus services.

80

80

80

80

5050

100

100

5050

100

10060

60

60

60

60

60

80

80

80

80

6060

80

80

8080

8080

80

80

80

80

6060

80

80

80

80

80

80

80

80

6060

80

80 80

80

80

80

60

60

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

80

80

80

80

5050

80

80

5050

100

100

100

80

8080

80

80

80

80

80

100

100

100

100

100

100

100100

100

100

100

80

80

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100100

100

100100

100

100

60

60

50

50

6060

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

80

80

100

100

100

100

50

50

100

50

50

50

505050 60

60

60

60

8080

80

80

80

80

80

806060

80

805050

80

80 50

50

6060

50

50

80

80

50

50

80

80

50

50

50

50

50

50

5050

80

80

50

50

6060

6060

50

50

5050

5050

5050

5050

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

40

40

40

40

40

40

40

40

50

50

50

50

5050

50

50

50

50

80

80

50

50

50

5050

50

50

506060

60

60

60

60

6060

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

100

100

80

80

5050

5050

50

50

50

50

5050

5050

60

60

80

80

80

80

60

605050

50

50

50

50

60

60

60

60

6060

50

50

50

50

5050

5050

40

40

50

5050

50

5050

5050

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

8080

4040

50

50

5050

8080

8080

5050

5050

60

60

5050

50

50

5050

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

4040

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

40

40

4040

5050

50

50

50

50 50

50

50

50

4040

4040

40

40

40

40

5050

5050

50

50

4040

50

50

50

50

50

50

5050

50

50

50

5050

50

40

40 5050

50

50

5050

50

5050

50

60

60

4040

50

50

50

50

40

40

5050

4040

50

50

50

50

100 km/h

80 km/h

60 km/h

50 km/h

40 km/h

AECOM




8

Figure 9 Public transport services by AM peak headway

Figure 10 PTV supplied bus network for strategic modelling

10 minute

20 minute

30 minute

AECOM




9

2.5 Land Use

Table 2 summarises the relevant population and employment projects that are incorporated in the model. Figure

11 and Figure 12 show the spatial distribution of population and employment for 2026 (Interim) and 2046

(Ultimate) respectively.

Table 2 Forecast population and employment by region

Population 2026

(Interim)

Population 2046

(Ultimate)

Employment

2026 (Interim)

Employment

2046 (Ultimate)

Wollert 25,700 33,000 3,600 6,800

Whittlesea North of Wollert 92,500 135,900 12,600 36,200

Whittlesea South of Wollert 162,600 200,700 52,900 76,000

Central suburbs 319,200 440,800 811,200 1,034,100

Other northern suburbs 1,526,700 2,031,400 620,000 823,200

Rest of Melbourne 3,037,400 3,665,000 1,282,600 1,593,900

All regions 5,164,100 6,506,800 2,783,000 3,570,100

Figure 11 Ultimate population and employment within Wollert

Population: 2731

Em ploy ment: 0

Population: 1921

Em ploy ment: 0

Population: 1406

Em ploy ment: 97

Population: 1549

Em ploy ment: 0

Population: 1531

Em ploy ment: 0

Population: 1269

Em ploy ment: 0

Population: 1316

Em ploy ment: 0

Population: 1285

Em ploy ment: 0

Population: 1025

Em ploy ment: 0

Population: 500

Em ploy ment: 277

Population: 1358

Em ploy ment: 0

Population: 1319

Em ploy ment: 0

Population: 940

Em ploy ment: 0

Population: 710

Em ploy ment: 0

Population: 0

Em ploy ment: 397

Population: 0

Em ploy ment: 837

Population: 973

Em ploy ment: 0

Population: 1038

Em ploy ment: 0

Population: 931

Em ploy ment: 0

Population: 1045

Em ploy ment: 0

Population: 294

Em ploy ment: 0

Population: 882

Em ploy ment: 0

Population: 1068

Em ploy ment: 0

Population: 0

Em ploy ment: 0

Population: 1416

Em ploy ment: 0

Population: 780

Em ploy ment: 0

Population: 644

Em ploy ment: 0

Population: 0

Em ploy ment: 892

Population: 861

Em ploy ment: 0

Population: 767

Em ploy ment: 0

Population: 721

Em ploy ment: 0

Population: 0

Em ploy ment: 500

Population: 0

Em ploy ment: 142

Population: 0

Em ploy ment: 478

Population: 0

Em ploy ment: 399

Population: 464

Em ploy ment: 0

Population: 720

Em ploy ment: 0

Population: 0

Em ploy ment: 362

Population: 315

Em ploy ment: 0

Population: 0

Em ploy ment: 175

Population: 0

Em ploy ment: 270

Population: 131

Em ploy ment: 1259

Population: 648

Em ploy ment: 0

Population: 227

Em ploy ment: 0

Population: 215

Em ploy ment: 0

Population: 0

Em ploy ment: 228

Population: 0

Em ploy ment: 160

Population: 0

Em ploy ment: 180

Population: 0

Em ploy ment: 140

Ultimate Population and Employment

AECOM




10

Figure 12 Interim population and employment within Wollert

Population: 2185

Em ploy ment: 0

Population: 1537

Em ploy ment: 0

Population: 1125

Em ploy ment: 97

Population: 888

Em ploy ment: 0 Population: 1084

Em ploy ment: 0

Population: 1378

Em ploy ment: 0

Population: 899

Em ploy ment: 0

Population: 400

Em ploy ment: 0

Population: 820

Em ploy ment: 0

Population: 1053

Em ploy ment: 0

Population: 1087

Em ploy ment: 0

Population: 1056

Em ploy ment: 0

Population: 752

Em ploy ment: 0

Population: 568

Em ploy ment: 0

Population: 0

Em ploy ment: 238

Population: 0

Em ploy ment: 418

Population: 830

Em ploy ment: 0

Population: 836

Em ploy ment: 0

Population: 681

Em ploy ment: 0

Population: 652

Em ploy ment: 0

Population: 235

Em ploy ment: 0

Population: 747

Em ploy ment: 0

Population: 706

Em ploy ment: 0

Population: 0

Em ploy ment: 0

Population: 1133

Em ploy ment: 0

Population: 624

Em ploy ment: 0

Population: 450

Em ploy ment: 0

Population: 0

Em ploy ment: 446

Population: 689

Em ploy ment: 0

Population: 613

Em ploy ment: 0

Population: 576

Em ploy ment: 0

Population: 0

Em ploy ment: 350

Population: 0

Em ploy ment: 150

Population: 0

Em ploy ment: 287

Population: 0

Em ploy ment: 200

Population: 371

Em ploy ment: 0

Population: 576

Em ploy ment: 0

Population: 0

Em ploy ment: 181

Population: 252

Em ploy ment: 0

Population: 0

Em ploy ment: 122

Population: 0

Em ploy ment: 135

Population: 65

Em ploy ment: 629

Population: 453

Em ploy ment: 0

Population: 158

Em ploy ment: 0

Population: 194

Em ploy ment: 0

Population: 0

Em ploy ment: 136

Population: 0

Em ploy ment: 96

Population: 0

Em ploy ment: 90

Population: 0

Em ploy ment: 70

Interim Population and Employment

AECOM




11

3.0 Transport modelling for future scenarios

3.1 Introduction

A reference case and seven scenarios were modelled. The reference case represents the agreed base model as

specified above, and the seven scenarios were designed to investigate the effects of changes to specific links in

the transport network. The scenarios address three strategic themes for Wollert’s development.

Theme 1: East-west connections to the E6 corridor, addressed by

- Scenario 1 – Summerhill Road E6 connection

- Scenario 2 – Boundary Road E6 connection

- Scenario 3 – Craigieburn Road E6 connection

- Scenario 4 – Craigieburn Road and Boundary Road E6 connections

Theme 2: Arterial road design widths, addressed by

- Scenario 5 – Koukoura Drive, Summerhill Road four lanes

- Scenario 6 – Koukoura Drive, Summerhill Road, Craigieburn Road four lanes

Theme 3: The role of rail, addressed by

3.2 Theme 3: The role of rail

- Scenario 7 – No rail to Wollert

3.3 Reference case

3.3.1 Overview results

Table 3 presents a summary of the AM peak trips to and from Wollert by their mode and origin / destination and

Table 4 presents percentages. Features to note include:

- 28 percent of trips are into Wollert from outside; 48 percent of trips are leaving Wollert; and 24 percent of

trips are internal to Wollert. In broad terms, travel is localised, with a majority of the inbound trips coming

from within Whittlesea; only in the outbound AM peak trips does the central city play an important role as a

destination.

- The wide swathe of the northern suburbs accounts for ten to 20 percent of Wollert-related AM peak trips by

direction. This indicates a significant amount of dispersed travel given the large area covered by the northern

suburbs.

- Car dominates local travel, and internal trips are the largest single proportion of car trips. Cars are also a

favoured mode for the dispersed travel to the northern suburbs.

- Public transport dominates the small market for travel to and from the central suburbs.

- Overall mode share to public transport varies between 3 percent for internal trips, 14 percent for outwards

trips, to 85 percent for AM peak trips to the central city.

AECOM




12

Table 3 Ultimate scenario AM peak trips to and from Wollert by mode and origin/destination region

Location All trips Car Public Transport

To From To From To From

Wollert (internal trip) 7,200 7,000 200

Whittlesea Nth of Wollert 2,400 1,700 2,300 1,600 200 100

Whittlesea Sth of Wollert 2,700 4,400 2,500 4,100 200 200

Central suburbs 100 1,900 0 300 100 1,600

Other northern suburbs 3,000 5,700 2,900 5,100 100 600

Rest of Melbourne 200 600 200 300 0 300

All regions 15,600 21,400 14,800 18,400 800 3,100

Table 4 Ultimate scenario AM peak trips to and from Wollert by mode and origin/destination region by percentage

Location All trips Car Public Transport Mode Share

To From To From To From To From

Wollert (internal trip) 24% 47% 38% 30% 8% 3%

Whittlesea Nth of Wollert 8% 6% 15% 9% 20% 2% 7% 3%

Whittlesea Sth of Wollert 9% 15% 17% 22% 22% 8% 7% 5%

Central suburbs 0% 6% 0% 2% 11% 54% 67% 85%

Other northern suburbs 10% 19% 19% 28% 14% 20% 4% 11%

Rest of Melbourne 1% 2% 1% 2% 4% 9% 19% 47%

All regions 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 5% 14%

The volumes1 of traffic forecast on the network are shown in Figure 13. Koukoura Drive is expected to be the

principal north-south route in the precinct with volumes of up to 22,500 vehicles a day, with marginally lower

volumes on Epping Road. Craigieburn Road is the principal east-west road, with incrementally lower volumes on

each east-west route option to the north.

1 Note that all volume plots in this report show two way figures for all roads except the E6, which show volumes by direction.

AECOM




13

Figure 13 Daily estimated vehicle volumes, ultimate network

This arterial network is forecast to generally perform well in the AM peak, with volume-capacity ratios below 0.6

except on Epping Road southbound and on Koukoura Drive entering and exiting the study area southbound,

including the three-lane arterial roads. However, the E6 is forecast to be congested with a volume-capacity ratio

between 0.8 and 0.9, and Boundary Road east of the E6 is also congested. These results are shown in Figure 14.

8700

8700

8800

8800

200

200

800

800800

800

700

700

2700

2700

2700

2700

17700

17700

20700

20700

16500

16500 11600

11600

22500

22500

18400

18400 9400

9400

20300

2030022300

22300

13000

13000

13000

13000

14400

14400

1400

1400

14400

14400

14400

14400

14400

14400

500

500

200

200

26000

25700

25700

26000

26000

25700

25700

26000

17700

17700

14900

14900

3300

3300

15300

153005900

5900

33100

1100

31900

7100

7100

7100

7100

6600

6600

1100

800

800

31900

34400

29400

1900

29400

1900

2500

25600

25600

29600

4800

29600

29600

26700

4600

2960029600

34800

4600

267004600 5200

5300

5300

4600

4600

2100

32600

31300

5800

5800

32900

4700

5000

5000

3500

35006800

6800

11400

11400

24800

24800

9100

9100

20800

20800

9400

9400

11600

116004600

460011600

11600

4900

4900

6800

6800

6300

6300

22300

22300

7600

7600

6600

6600

300

300 5200

5200

3800

3800

6800

6800

16500

16500

3400

3400

3500

3500

5500

5500

4900

4900

3400

3400

3200

3200

2100

2100

2600

2600

2200

2200

3700

3700

1800

1800

2100

2100

5800

5800

6300

6300

4000

4000

2000

2000

2000

2000

700

700

700

700

6300

6300

12300

12300

18100

18100

2600

2600

3000

3000

200

200

400

400

300

300

8200

8200

1300

1300

1700

1700

3500

3500

2600

2600

1700

1700

1300

1300

11400

11400

20300

20300

2200

02200

0 11500

115003800

3800

2800

2800

3200

3200

11500

11500

6300

6300

15000

15000

5700

5700

3400

3400

4300

4300

400

400

2800

2800

3400

3400

4300

4300

1600

1600

1600

1600

5400

5400

3200

3200

1200

1200

1400

1400

3600

3600

22000

22000

4800

4800

6000

6000

2300

2300

20200

20200

19900

19900

1800

1800

2300

2300

11700

11700

1800

1800

500

500

2000

20001700

1700

1400

1400

2800

2800

3100

3100

1100

1100

2700

2700

3100

3100

2200

2200

5400

5400 1800

1800

3000

3000 3600

3600

1600

1600

1600

1600

1600

1600

1800

1800

500

500

1000

1000

2500

2500

2900

2900

6100

6100

3300

3300

700

700

2000

2000

3500

3500

3200

3200

3100

3100

2300

23004800

4800

1100

1100 600

600

3000

3000

2000

2000

3800

38002300

2300

4300

4300

4700

4700

1600

1600

4800

4800

2400

2400

6600

6600

5100

5100

2600

2600

Less than 9,000

9,000 to 18,000

18,000 to 27,000

Greater than 27,000

AECOM




14

Figure 14 AM peak volume capacity ratios, ultimate network

Figure 15 shows the daily public transport line loads. These loadings are by direction, as can be observed by the

differential loading on the magenta rail corridor. Each bus line is modelled to carry 100 to 200 passengers per

direction per day. The railway is modelled to have approximately 4,400 boardings a day. Figure 16 compares

Wollert’s future forecast patronage with present day stations that performed a similar role as terminus stations in

growth areas in 2011/12.2 If Wollert were open today with that patronage it would be ranked around the 30

th

busiest station in Melbourne.

2 “Station Patronage Research - June 2013” available online at http://ptv.vic.gov.au/about-ptv/ptv-data-and-reports/research-

and-statistics/#bulletins, last accessed 17 July 2014

0.08

0.15

0.08

0.15

0.0

1

0.0

1

0.05

0.05

0

0

0.02

0.02

0

0.0

60.0

3

0.1

7

0.1

7

0.0

3

0.93

0.74

0.34

0.31

0.7

2

0.2

6

0.21

0.15

0.5

10.2

8

0.5

4

0.1

8

0.11

0.15

0.21

0.3

0.7

6

0.3

1

0.43

0.28

0.35

0.16

0.35

0.16

0.39

0.17

0.0

3

0.1

2

0.39

0.17

0.39

0.17

0.39

0.17

0

0.0

6

0.02

0.01

0.28

0.8

0.8

0.28

0.28

0.8

0.8

0.28

0.93

0.74

0.24

0.21

0.1

8

0.2 0.2

0.240.4

8

0.2

6

0.8

7

0.0

7

0.8

3

0.1

0.150.1

0.15

0.1

0.150

0.1

0.12

0.0

7

0.03

0.0

3

0.8

30.9

10.9

1

0.5

4 0.0

7

0.5

4

0.0

7

0.1

3

0.7

0.54

0.9

10.7

3

0.3

2

0.7

30.7

3

0.5

1

0.5

10.5

10.5

1

0.13

0.1

3

0.730.73

0.87

0.51

0.14

0.51

0.51

0.51

0.1

4 0.25

0.870.8

70.8

7

0.1

0.13

0.1

2

0.0

8

0.8

1

0.1

1

0.8

1

0.8

1

0.5

6

0.5

6

0.59

0.59

0.59

0.1

4

0.0

6

0.0

6

0.6

4

0

0

0.44

0.02

00

0

0

0.1

9

0.23

0.38

0.17

0.250.5

6

0.3

2

0.38

0.31

0.31

0.34

0.6

9

0.2

5

0.15

0.16

0.2

6

0.4

7

0.11

0.150.1

3

0.1

8

0.15

0.160.1

2

0.2

90.21

0.15 0.4

6

0.1

7

0.4

4

0.2

9

0.4

6

0.3

5

0.43

0.28

0.2

9

0.6

7

0.08

0.15

0.19

0.21

0.01

0.02 0.2

8

0.2

7 0.19

0.3

0.1

3

0.4

60.4

4

0.2

9

0.7

2

0.2

6

0

0.01

0.1

9

0.1

2

0.2

1

0.1

2

0.4

5

0.2

5

0.3

5

0.2

6

0.26

0.17

0.24

0.16

0.17

0.15

0.23

0.16

0.1

7

0.1

2

0.13

0.11

0.08

0.08

0.36

0.18

0.09

0.09

0.09

0.1

0.13

0.1

0.47

0.34

0.49

0.39

0.4

2

0.2

6

0.14

0.13

0.1

0.15

0.19

0.3

0

0

0.0

6

0.0

2

0

0

0.0

8

0.0

9

0.0

8

0.3

0.23

0.39

0.7

5

0.2

2

0.09

0.25

0.15

0.25

0.0

1

0.0

1

0.0

3

0.0

2

0.0

2

0.0

1

0.12

0.16

0.0

6

0.1

0.1

1

0.0

8

0.24

0.23

0.09

0.25

0.1

1

0.1

2

0.1

5

0.0

6

0.25

0.35

0.2

3

0.4

9

0.52

0.27

0.27

0.320.3

9

0.1

1

0.09

0.28

0.15

0.27

0.22

0.38

0.0

8

0.3

0.6

6

0.2

0.25

0.34

0.1

0.2

0.3

8

0.1

8

0.0

2

0.0

3

0.16

0.17

0.26

0.21

0.28

0.3

0.0

6

0.1

3

0.0

6

0.1

3

0.14

0.29

0.09

0.18

0.08

0.06

0.0

9

0.0

9

0.27

0.22

0.5

2

0.2

7

0.2

7

0.1

8

0.3

0.4

8

0.0

8

0.2

0.4

9

0.2

2

0.4

7

0.2

3

0.1

7

0.0

9

0.1

8

0.1

2

0.26

0.33

0.0

9

0.1

4

0.0

2

0.0

4

0.1

5

0.1

20.08

0.12

0.04

0.13

0.09

0.27

0.1

1

0.3

7

0.20.08

0.05

0.13

0.25

0.16

0.29

0.19

0.38

0.09

0.21

0.33

0.38 0.1

7

0.0

9

0.3

5

0.1

5 0.2

0.13

0.14

0.08

0.14

0.08

0.14

0.08

0.11

0.14

0.0

5

0.0

1

0.03

0.05

0.12

0.07

0.2

8

0.1

1

0.3

2

0.4

8

0.12

0.35

0.0

4

0.0

8

0.22

0.07

0.24

0.24

0.1

5

0.3

1

00

0.14

0.13

0.1

0.20.39

0.27

0.04

0.08 0.0

4

0.0

4

0.24

0.16

0.2

1

0.0

6

0.09

0.280.14

0.15

0.0

5

0.2

2

0.3

1

0.3

5

0.07

0.14

0.3

0.3

3

0.2

0.09

0.5

8

0.3

6

0.2

2

0.1

0.24

0.28

0.33

0.08

Greater than 1.0

0.8 to 1.0

0.6 to 0.8

Less than 0.6

http://ptv.vic.gov.au/about-ptv/ptv-data-and-reports/research-and-statistics/#bulletins

http://ptv.vic.gov.au/about-ptv/ptv-data-and-reports/research-and-statistics/#bulletins

AECOM




15

Figure 15 Daily public transport line loads

Figure 16 Comparison of recent actual and Wollert modelled station boardings for peer stations

100

100

100

100

100

100

500

500

200

200

400

400

200

200

200

200

100

100

100

100

200

200

1000

1000

100

100

100

100

100

100 100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

4400

3900

100

200

100

200

500

300

100

200

500

500

200

300

200

200

100

100

100

100

400

400 100

100

300

400

100

100

1000

1000

100

100

100

100 1

00

100

100

100

100

100

300

400

200

200

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

200

200

200

200

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

200

100

100

100

200

10010

0

200

100400

200

100

200

200

200

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

500

500

500

500

300

200

200

200

200

200

100

100

200

100

100

100

100

200300

300

300

300

100

100

300

300

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

400

500

400

500

100

100

100

100

600

500

300

300

300

300

300

300

300

200

300

200

300

300

400

400

200

200

500

500

300

300

100

100

400

400 100

100

Bus Loads

Train Loads

AECOM




16

3.3.2 Overview observations on demand and design relationship

Figure 13 and Figure 14 show that almost all of the secondary roads are forecast to have daily demand volumes

in the order of 2000 to 5000 vehicles per day in total.

The Austroads Guide to Traffic Management Part 3: Traffic Studies Table 5.1 outlines the typical mid-block

capacities for local collector roads, accounting for parking, roundabouts and other features that result in

interrupted flow for vehicles. Figures relevant to planning two-lane roads are summarised in Table 5. Note that

these capacities are per hour.

Under the assumption that the peak planning period is 10 percent of the daily flow, it is clear that the modelled

number of lanes (one clear flow lane each way, as shown in Figure 7) is well within the design standards indicated

by AustRoads.

Further commentary on the design widths of the main arterial roads is discussed in Section 3.5.

Table 5 Typical mid-block capacities for urban roads with interrupted flow

Type of lane One-way mid-block capacity (passenger cars per hour)

Median or inner lane

Divided road 1000

Undivided road 900

Kerb lane

Adjacent to parking lane [i.e. three lane cross-

section, dedicated parking]

900

Occasional parked vehicles 600

Clearway conditions 900

3.3.3 AM Peak period travel patterns on specific links

Select link analysis shows the origin and destination patterns associated with traffic modelled on a specific link in

the transport network. Figure 17 shows that the section of Boundary Road west of the E6 serves an important role

as a collector / distributor road providing access to the E6, Epping Road and Boundary Road East. Almost 15

percent of the traffic travels from west of Wollert before travelling on the selected link.

AECOM




17

Figure 17 Select link analysis: Boundary Road west of Epping Road

Figure 18 shows the patterns of use of Koukoura Drive north of Craigieburn Road. Nearly half the traffic heading

southbound here comes from north of Wollert, and nearly three-quarters of the traffic continues south.

Figure 19 shows a link further north at the entrance to Wollert. It shows that over half the traffic entering Wollert

from the north leaves Wollert to the south or west.

At both locations the balance of traffic reaches Koukoura Drive by local connector roads, generated from the

nearby land uses.

These results indicate that Koukoura Drive is performing a substantial network role as a through traffic route

across the Wollert PSP area.

0 0

0

0

0

200

400

200

200

200

100

200

100

200

0

200

400

100

100

100

100

100

00

0

600

1000

100

100

000

0

00

0

0

100

500

300

300

500

500500

500

500

0

0

00

0 500

0

0

500

500

300

300

300

300

300

300

300

300

00

0

00

0

00

00

300

0

100

0

100200

100

500

700

300

600

0

200

0

0

00

00

0

0

0

0

1000

0

0

0

700

1300

300

100

100

100

0

100

300

0

200 500

8001000

100

400

0

200

100

300

100

0

0

0

0200

200

200

600

900

0100

0

0 0

00

00

0

0

0

00

0

0

0

0

0

00

0

0

0

0

0

0

100

100

0

0

100

100

1000

1000

AECOM




18

Figure 18 Select link analysis: Koukoura Drive north of Craigieburn Road

Figure 19 Select link analysis: Koukoura Drive north of Summerhill Road

0 0

200

500

700

1900

600

100

200

26001400

00

0

0

100

100

400

600

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0 0

0

0

0

0

0

200

100

100

00

100

100

200

00

0

0

0

00000000

0

0

100

200

0

100

200

300

200

300

1200

400

400

1200

0

0

0

0

100

200

00

100

100

400

600

0

00

0

00

100

100

00

1900

600

200

100

200

100

100

0

100

0

00

0

0

200

200

200

200

100

100

0

0

100

100

200

0

0

400

400

600

1700

2200

1100

100

300

1000

300

400

1000

0

0

100100 0

0

200

200

2200

1100

1000

0

100

1600

500

1400

500

100

300

100

0

100

0

100100

100

100

100

100

0

100

0

0

0200

100

100

0

1000

00

0

0

0

0

100

0200

200

0

100

0

1100

300

0

100

1200400

100

100

500

200

500

200

500

200

0100

500

200

500

200

500

200

0

0

0

00

0

0

0

4000

400

0

400200

200

200

200

200

100

0100

100

00

00

0

100

100

100

100100

100

100

0100

0

0

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100 0

0

100

100

3100

1300

100

500

900

2100

0

100

00

0

100

300

0

00

0

00

00

1100

300

00

100

100

0

100

0

0

0

100

0

0 0

0

0

0

0

0

200

100

200

100

100

100

0

0

0

0

200

200

0

100

400

00

0

0

100

300

700

1800

1400

500

0

0

0

100

200

200

100

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

100

1400

500

1000

0100

1800

700

1900

800

00

00

00

0

00

0

0

0

100

00

0

0

100

0

0

0

00

0

0

0

0

0

00

100

200

100

200

0

100

200

00

0

0

1000

200

0

0

0

0

0

0

1000

00

0

0

AECOM




19

3.4 Theme 1: East-west connections to the E6 corridor

3.4.1 Scenario 1 – Summerhill Road E6 connection

Scenario 1 differs from the Reference Case in that Summerhill Road provides the only connection to the E6.

Table 6 and Table 7 shows there is no significant difference in overall travel behaviour compared to the reference

case, with negligible shifts in mode or destination.

Table 6 Scenario 1 AM peak trips to and from Wollert by mode and origin/destination region

Location

Ultimate scenario

(All trips)

Scenario 1

(All trips) Car Public Transport

To To From To From To From To From

Wollert (internal trip) 7,200 7,300 7,100 300

Whittlesea Nth of Wollert 2,400 2,400 2,400 1,700 2,300 1,600 200 100

Whittlesea Sth of Wollert 2,700 2,700 2,600 4,300 2,400 4,100 200 200

Central suburbs 100 100 100 2,000 0 300 100 1,700

Other northern suburbs 3,000 3,000 3,000 5,700 2,800 5,000 100 600

Rest of Melbourne 200 200 200 600 200 300 0 300

All regions 15,600 15,600 15,600 21,500 14,800 18,400 800 3,100

Table 7 Scenario 1 AM peak trips to and from Wollert by mode and origin/destination region by percentages






Central suburbs 0% 7% 0% 2% 11% 54% 67% 85%



All regions 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 5% 14%

Figure 20 shows how traffic redistributes when Summerhill Road is the only E6 access location. There is a large

increase in traffic on Epping Road north of Boundary Road and south of Craigieburn Road, and increases on

Summerhill Road and other routes leading to the interchange. There is a small increase in traffic on Koukoura

Drive. There is a reduction in traffic on the E6.

Figure 21 indicates that the increase in traffic on Epping Road results in congestion on that route.

These results suggest that Summerhill Road is an inconvenient location for a single interchange, with traffic using

Epping Road as the alternative north and south rather than backtracking to Summerhill Road interchange and

using the congested E6.

AECOM




20

Figure 20 Scenario 1 difference plot to Reference Case

Figure 21 AM peak volume capacity ratios, Scenario 1 network

-3500

-3500

-3500

-3500

-200

-200

700

700

10400

10400

10400

10400

-900

-900

600

600

-200

-200

600

600

6000

6000 -2700

-2700

3800

3800

300

300

-100

-100

-100

-100

-100

-100

-100

-100-100

-100

-100

-100

700

700

-100

-400

-400

-100

-100

-400

-400

-100

-900

-900

-700

-700

-400

-400 -600

-600

800

800

-1400

2300

-3700

2200

2200

2200

2200

6200

6200

2300

2300

2300

-3700

-2800

-2800

-3700

700

-3700

700

900

-8800

-8800

2100

-4800

2100

2100

1600

1600

1600

1600-

4600

21002100

-3100

1600

-4600

1600

1600

1600 -4600

-5200

100

100

-2100

-1000

-3100

-3100

-5800

-5800

-4600

-4700

-600

-600-1100

-1100

1700

1700

1900

1900

600

600

-2700

-2700

-6400

-6400

-1000

-1000-200

-200

-100

-100

-300

-300

300

300

2800

2800

-300

-300

100

100

-100

-100

600

600

600

600

600

600

700

700

800

800

100

100

300

300

100

100

600

600

100

100

-100

-100-6

00

-600

6600

6600

-4000

-4000

3000

3000

700

700

700

700

2200

2200

700

700

1200

1200

-200

-200

400

400

300

300

500

500

60060

0

-2200

-2200

-200

-200

-600

-600

-600

-600

-200

-200

6600

6600

3400

3400

-200

-200

500

500

-500

-500

800

800

500

500

600

600

200

200

-700

-700

300

300

600

600

600

600

800

800

-400

-400

-2800

-2800

-500

-500

600

600

100

100500

500

600

600

-600

-600

300

300

300

300

-100

-100 100

100

200

200

-200

-200

500

500

600

600

200

200

400

400

300

300

-200

-200

400

400

-400

-400

500

500600

600

8100

8100

-500

-500

-600

-600

600

600

-200

-200

200

200

0.07

0.09

0.07

0.09

00

0.05

0.04

0

0

0.02

0.02

0

0.0

70.2

2

0.4

2

0.4

2

0.2

2

0.93

0.72

0.34

0.31

0.7

2

0.2

8

0.21

0.14

0.5

10.2

8

0.5

7

0.2

6

0.08

0.12

0.2

0.28

0.7

8

0.3

80.44

0.29

0.33

0.16

0.33

0.16

0.37

0.17

0.0

3

0.1

2

0.37

0.17

0.37

0.17

0.37

0.17

0

0.0

6

0.02

0.01

0.28

0.78

0.78

0.28

0.28

0.78

0.78

0.28

0.93

0.72

0.23

0.19

0.1

7

0.1

7 0.2

0.220.50.3

0.8

8

0.2

3

0.7

5

0.13

0.180.13

0.18

0.13

0.18

0.23

0.21

0.2

3

0.11

0.1

1

0.7

50.8

60.8

6

0.4

7 0.0

9

0.4

7

0.0

9

0.1

9

0.42

0.33

0.8

60.8

60.8

60.8

6

0.5

2

0.5

20.5

20.5

2

0.860.86

0.86

0.52

0.52

0.52

0.52

0.860.8

60.8

6

0.11

0.14

0.1

3

0.1

0.8

60.8

6

0.8

6

0.5

2

0.5

2

0.52

0.52

0.52

0.5

2

0

0

0.45

0.02

00

0

00.22

0.38

0.17

0.25

0.5

3

0.3 0.34

0.26

0.3

0.31

0.6

6

0.2

7

0.17

0.18

0.2

7

0.4

6

0.08

0.12

0.0

8

0.1

2

0.07

0.09

0.1

0.2

20.21

0.14 0.4

6

0.1

7

0.4

3

0.2

9

0.4

5

0.3

3

0.44

0.29

0.2

9

0.6

7

0.12

0.19

0.18

0.18

0.02

0.02 0.2

8

0.2

6 0.18

0.28

0.1

3

0.4

7

0.4

3

0.2

9

0.7

2

0.2

8

0

0.01

0.2

3

0.1

4

0.2

5

0.1

4

0.4

6

0.2

9

0.3

7

0.3

0.27

0.17

0.24

0.16

0.19

0.17

0.24

0.17

0.2

4

0.1

7

0.13

0.11

0.08

0.08

0.35

0.18

0.09

0.09

0.09

0.1

0.13

0.1

0.47

0.34

0.49

0.39

0.4

3

0.2

6

0.14

0.13

0.1

0.15

0.18

0.28

0

0

0.0

4

0.0

2

0

0

0.0

5

0.0

6

0.1

9

0.4

7

0.17

0.28

0.7

5

0.2

7

0.09

0.29

0.15

0.28

0.0

1

0.0

1

0.0

5

0.0

2

0.0

2

0.0

1

0.15

0.19

0.0

6

0.1

0.1

1

0.0

8

0.27

0.28

0.13

0.35

0.1

1

0.1

0.1

8

0.0

7

0.27

0.35

0.2

3

0.4

8

0.51

0.28

0.23

0.25

0.3

8

0.1

1

0.07

0.21

0.12

0.21

0.22

0.37

0.1

9

0.4

7

0.6

7

0.2

6

0.23

0.33

0.11

0.23

0.3

5

0.1

6

0.0

2

0.0

3

0.16

0.17

0.27

0.21

0.29

0.3

0.0

7

0.1

3

0.0

7

0.1

3

0.15

0.34

0.1

0.21

0.08

0.06

0.0

9

0.0

9

0.28

0.22

0.5

1

0.2

8

0.2

8

0.1

9

0.2

7

0.4

3

0.1

0.2

3

0.4

8

0.2

3

0.4

6

0.2

4

0.2

0.1

5

0.1

5

0.1

1

0.21

0.25

0.0

7

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

6

0.1

20.1

0.15

0.06

0.19

0.07

0.21

0.1

1

0.3

6

0.08

0.05

0.13

0.24

0.18

0.29

0.2

0.38

0.09

0.2

0.32

0.38 0.1

8

0.1

0.3

6

0.1

5 0.18

0.12

0.14

0.09

0.14

0.09

0.14

0.09

0.11

0.14

0.0

5

0.0

1

0.03

0.05

0.15

0.09

0.2

8

0.1

1

0.3

4

0.5

1

0.13

0.35

0.0

4

0.0

8

0.22

0.07

0.24

0.24

0.1

8

0.3

2

0.0

2

0.0

3

0.11

0.15

0.1

0.20.39

0.27

0.05

0.11 0.0

4

0.0

4

0.23

0.12

0.2

1

0.0

6

0.1

0.320.16

0.2

0.1

9

0.4

40.2

7

0.3

2

0.07

0.14

0.2

7

0.2

9

0.2

0.09

0.6

1

0.4

0.2

1

0.1

0.22

0.27

0.34

0.09

Increase

Decrease

Greater than 1.0

0.8 to 1.0

0.6 to 0.8

Less than 0.6

AECOM




21

3.4.2 Scenario 2 – Boundary Road E6 connection

Scenario 2 differs from the Reference Case in that Boundary Road provides the only connection to the E6.

Table 8 and Table 9 show there is no significant difference in overall travel behaviour compared to the reference



Location

Ultimate scenario

(All trips)

Scenario 2






Central suburbs 100 100 100 1,900 0 300 100 1,600



All regions 15,600 15,600 15,600 21,500 14,800 18,400 800 3,100







Central suburbs 0% 6% 0% 2% 11% 54% 67% 85%



All regions 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 5% 14%

Figure 22 shows that placing the only interchange at Boundary Road results in increases in traffic on Epping Road

along its length, and approximately an additional 1000 vehicles along Boundary Road. Figure 23 identifies areas

of potential congestion on Epping Road southbound of Boundary Road, in the Wollert Town Centre, on the

northern and southern boundaries of Wollert PSP on Koukoura Drive; and along Boundary Road east of the

precinct.

AECOM




22



-3800

-3800

-3800

-3800

-200

-200

700

700

2400

2400

2400

2400

-500

-500

-900

-900

-300

-300

2400

2400 -2700

-2700

1800

1800

100

100

-800

-800

-800

-800

-800

-800

-800

-800-800

-800

-800

-800

500

500

100

100

200

100

100

200

200

100

100

200

-1500

-1500

-400

-400 -2200

-2200-200

-200

-600

-1100

500

-1000

-1000

-1000

-1000

-5800

-5800

-1100-800

-800

500

-2000

-2000

100-1900

100

-1900

-2500

7700

7700

-2200

200

-2200

-2200

-1900 200

200

200

200-2200

-2200

-400

1200

-1900

-1900 1200 1800

-400-4

00

-400

-300

-300

-200

-200

1700

-2100

1700

1700

1400

-800

-800

-800

-5800

-5800

-2300

-4700

200

200

200

200

400

400 1000

1000

600

600

300

300

-800

-800

-2700

-2700

-6700

-6700

-1300

-1300-900

-900 -200

-200

-300

-300

-300

-300

100

100

-300

-300

-1800

-1800

-300

-300

-300

-300

700

700

800

800

-200

-200

-600

-600

400

400

-100

-100-6

00

-600

3700

3700

1200

1200

4000

4000

300

300

200

200

100

100

-800

-800

200

200

300

300

100

100

600

600

40040

0

1000

1000

-200

-200

-300

-300

600

600

3700

3700

3100

3100

-300

-300

500

500

200

200

100

100

1000

1000

500

500

400

400

900

900

100

100

300

300 200

200

-200

-200

100

100

100

100

-200

-200

200

200

200

200

200

200

200

200

-200

-200

400

400

100

100

100

100

-500

-500

100

100

800

800200

200

3400

3400

400

400

-300

-300

0.06

0.08

0.06

0.08

00

0.05

0.04

0

0

0.02

0.02

0.0

2

0.0

70.0

7

0.2

4

0.2

4

0.0

7

0.92

0.74

0.34

0.31

0.7

1

0.2

7

0.2

0.14

0.50

.27

0.5

5

0.2

2

0.08

0.11

0.18

0.26

0.7

6

0.3

50.44

0.28

0.32

0.16

0.32

0.16

0.36

0.17

0.0

3

0.1

2

0.36

0.17

0.36

0.17

0.36

0.17

0.0

1

0.0

6

0.03

0.02

0.28

0.78

0.78

0.28

0.28

0.78

0.78

0.28

0.92

0.74

0.22

0.19

0.1

7

0.1

7 0.18

0.210.4

6

0.2

5

0.8

70.8

7

0.08

0.150.08

0.15

0.08

0.15

0.01

0.01

0.8

70.8

70.8

7

0.5

40.5

4

0.82

0.72

0.8

70.7

0.2

9

0.7

0.7

0.4

7

0.4

70.4

70.4

7

0.13

0.1

3

0.7

0.7

0.9

0.47

0.2

0.47

0.47

0.47 0.2

0.34

0.90.9

0.9

0.9

0.1

0.13

0.1

2

0.0

8

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.5

8

0.5

8

0.58

0.58

0.58

0.5

8

0

0

0.44

0.02

00

0

00.23

0.39

0.18

0.25

0.5

8

0.3

3

0.4

0.32

0.33

0.35

0.6

8

0.2

6

0.13

0.17

0.2

6

0.4

6

0.08

0.11

0.0

8

0.1

2

0.06

0.080.0

9

0.2

0.2

0.14 0.4

5

0.1

7

0.4

2

0.2

8

0.4

5

0.3

3

0.44

0.28

0.2

8

0.6

6

0.05

0.13

0.18

0.19

0.02

0.02 0.2

8

0.2

6 0.16

0.26

0.1

3

0.4

5

0.4

2

0.2

8

0.7

1

0.2

7

0

0.01

0.2

3

0.1

4

0.2

6

0.1

4

0.4

2

0.2

4

0.3

3

0.2

6

0.26

0.17

0.24

0.17

0.17

0.15

0.23

0.17

0.1

2

0.1

1

0.13

0.11

0.08

0.08

0.35

0.18

0.09

0.09

0.09

0.1

0.13

0.1

0.48

0.34

0.49

0.39

0.4

4

0.2

7

0.14

0.13

0.1

0.15

0.16

0.26

0

0

0.0

4

0.0

2

0

0

0.0

5

0.0

6

0.1

4

0.4

1

0.28

0.41

0.7

8

0.2

9

0.09

0.28

0.15

0.27

0.0

1

0.0

1

0.0

4

0.0

2

0.0

3

0.0

2

0.1

0.17

0.0

8

0.1

1

0.1

1

0.0

8

0.24

0.22

0.08

0.28

0.1

5

0.1

2

0.1

9

0.0

6

0.27

0.35

0.2

3

0.4

8

0.51

0.27

0.29

0.33

0.3

9

0.1

2

0.07

0.26

0.12

0.26

0.23

0.39

0.1

4

0.4

1

0.6

7

0.2

6

0.2

0.33

0.11

0.23

0.4

0.1

9

0.0

2

0.0

3

0.17

0.17

0.26

0.21

0.28

0.31

0.0

6

0.1

3

0.0

6

0.1

3

0.16

0.35

0.1

0.21

0.08

0.06

0.0

9

0.0

9

0.27

0.22

0.5

1

0.2

7

0.2

7

0.1

9

0.3

0.4

8

0.0

8

0.1

9

0.4

8

0.2

2

0.4

6

0.2

3

0.1

7

0.0

9

0.1

8

0.1

2

0.28

0.34

0.0

9

0.1

4

0.0

3

0.0

5

0.1

9

0.1

40.08

0.12

0.04

0.16

0.08

0.26

0.1

2

0.3

7

0.20.08

0.06

0.13

0.25

0.17

0.28

0.19

0.37

0.08

0.2

0.32

0.38 0.20.1

0.3

3

0.1

5 0.16

0.14

0.14

0.09

0.14

0.09

0.14

0.09

0.12

0.15

0.0

5

0.0

1

0.03

0.05

0.12

0.08

0.2

6

0.1

0.3

3

0.5

0.12

0.34

0.0

4

0.0

8

0.22

0.07

0.25

0.24

0.1

6

0.3

1

00

0.09

0.15

0.1

0.20.4

0.27

0.04

0.08 0.0

4

0.0

4

0.24

0.16

0.2

1

0.0

6

0.11

0.340.14

0.17

0.1

1

0.3

30.3

1

0.3

5

0.07

0.14

0.3

0.3

3

0.2

0.09

0.60.3

7

0.2

2

0.1

1

0.19

0.28

0.33

0.09

Increase

Decrease

Greater than 1.0

0.8 to 1.0

0.6 to 0.8

Less than 0.6

AECOM




23

3.4.3 Scenario 3 – Craigieburn Road E6 connection

Scenario 3 differs from the Reference Case in that Craigieburn Road provides the only connection to the E6.

Table 10 and Table 11 shows there is no significant difference in overall travel behaviour compared to the

reference case, with negligible shifts in mode or destination.


Location

Ultimate scenario

(All trips)

Scenario 3






Central suburbs 100 100 100 1,900 0 300 100 1,700



All regions 15,600 15,600 15,600 21,500 14,800 18,400 800 3,100







Central suburbs 0% 7% 0% 2% 11% 54% 67% 85%



All regions 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 5% 14%

Figure 24 shows that placing the only interchange at Craigieburn Road results in increases in traffic on Epping

Road along its length, but between 1600 and 3000 fewer vehicles routed along Boundary Road. Traffic filters on

local roads south to Craigieburn Road to access the interchange, with volumes on Craigieburn Road increasing

by up to 1700 vehicles west of Epping Road. The section east of Epping Road, which becomes a major access

route, has 9100 additional vehicles.

Figure 25 identifies areas of potential congestion on Epping Road southbound of Boundary Road, in the Wollert

Town Centre, on the northern and southern boundaries of Wollert PSP on Koukoura Drive; and along Boundary

Road east of the precinct. This is a very similar pattern to that observed in Scenario 1 and Scenario 2.

AECOM




24



4600

4600

4600

4600

2000

2000

3800

3800

3800

3800

-1100

-1100

400

400

500

500

700

700

900900

1700

1700

9100

9100

1700

1700

4600

4600

400

400

-800

-800

-800

-800

-900

-900

-100

-100

-900

-900-900

-900

-900

-900

1900

1900

100

100

300

300

300

300

-1100

-1100

700

700

1600

1600900

900

-2400

-1100

-1300-800

-800-800

-800

-800

-800

-5900

-5900

-1100-800

-800

-1300

-3800

-3800

-1500

-1900

-1500

-1900

-2500

-8900

-8900

1100

-4800

1100

1100

1100

1100

1100

1100-

4600

11001100

-4100

1100

-4600

1100

1100

1100 -4600

-5200

-400

-400

-400

-400

500

-4600

-3500

-3500

3300

3300

800

-1700

3000

-500

-500-300

-300

1400

1400

-500

-500

800

800

9100

9100

9200

9200

400

400

700

700

100

100

400

400

-1700

-1700

1700

1700

200

200

100

100

500

500

-200

-200

-300

-300

900

900

900

900

-100

-100

-500

-500

200

200

1700

1700

4600

4600

-3000

-3000

2800

2800

200

200

100

100

-600

-600

300

300

-100

-100

200

200

-300

-300

300

300

500

500

800

800

100010

00

-1600

-1600

-200

-200

-200

-200

4600

4600

4300

4300

-300

-300

-200

-200

1000

1000

200

200

-100

-100

-100

-100

800

800

800

800

-2200

-2200

-600

-600

500

500

600

600

-200

-200

300

300

300

300

-200

-200

100

100

-300

-300

600

600

600

600

300

300

200

200

300

300

300

300

500

500

-400

-400600

600

4600

4600

100

100

700

700

-300

-300

100

100

0.16

0.26

0.16

0.27

0.0

1

0.0

1

0.05

0.04

0

0

0.02

0.02

0.0

4

0.1

10.0

9

0.2

4

0.2

4

0.0

9

0.93

0.73

0.34

0.32

0.7

2

0.2

7

0.22

0.16

0.5

20.2

9

0.5

4

0.2

0.26

0.3

0.23

0.33

0.7

8

0.3

80.44

0.29

0.33

0.16

0.33

0.16

0.37

0.17

0.0

3

0.1

2

0.37

0.17

0.37

0.17

0.37

0.17

0.0

3

0.1

0.03

0.02

0.29

0.79

0.79

0.29

0.29

0.79

0.79

0.29

0.93

0.73

0.24

0.22

0.1

8

0.2 0.22

0.260.5

2

0.3

0.8

40.8

4

0.08

0.130.08

0.13

0.08

0.13

0.01

0.01

0.8

40.8

40.8

4

0.5

10.5

1

0.42

0.33

0.8

40.8

40.8

40.8

4

0.5

1

0.5

10.5

10.5

1

0.840.84

0.840.51

0.51

0.51

0.51

0.840.8

40.8

4

0.1

0.11

0.1

0.0

8

0.7

20.2

0.7

2

0.7

2

0.4

7

0.4

7

0.51

0.51

0.51

0.3

0.2

2

0.0

8

0.0

8

0.5

9

0

0

0.45

0.02

00

0

0

0.3

4

0.22

0.38

0.17

0.25

0.5

3

0.3 0.35

0.28

0.31

0.33

0.6

8

0.2

7

0.13

0.14

0.2

7

0.4

7

0.26

0.3

0.1

3

0.1

8

0.3

0.310.1

4

0.3

30.22

0.16 0.4

7

0.1

7

0.4

4

0.2

9

0.4

7

0.3

5

0.44

0.29

0.2

9

0.6

7

0.05

0.11

0.19

0.22

0.01

0.02 0.2

8

0.2

8 0.21

0.33

0.1

4

0.4

8

0.4

4

0.2

9

0.7

2

0.2

7

0

0.01

0.1

6

0.1

1

0.1

8

0.1

1

0.4

8

0.3

0.3

8

0.3

1

0.26

0.17

0.24

0.17

0.17

0.14

0.24

0.16

0.1

3

0.1

1

0.13

0.11

0.08

0.08

0.35

0.18

0.09

0.09

0.09

0.1

0.13

0.1

0.47

0.34

0.49

0.39

0.4

4

0.2

7

0.14

0.13

0.1

0.15

0.21

0.33

0

0

0.0

6

0.0

2

0

0

0.0

9

0.0

9

0.1

5

0.4

0.17

0.31

0.7

2

0.2

6

0.09

0.27

0.15

0.26

0.0

1

0.0

1

0.0

4

0.0

2

0.0

3

0.0

2

0.1

0.14

0.0

8

0.1

2

0.1

1

0.0

8

0.24

0.21

0.08

0.27

0.0

9

0.1

0.1

6

0.0

7

0.27

0.36

0.2

4

0.5

0.53

0.28

0.24

0.28

0.4

0.1

2

0.08

0.26

0.13

0.26

0.22

0.38

0.1

5

0.4

0.6

8

0.2

6

0.25

0.33

0.1

0.19

0.3

8

0.1

8

0.0

2

0.0

3

0.16

0.17

0.26

0.21

0.28

0.3

0.0

7

0.1

3

0.0

7

0.1

3

0.13

0.26

0.09

0.17

0.08

0.06

0.0

9

0.0

9

0.26

0.22

0.5

3

0.2

8

0.2

8

0.1

9

0.2

9

0.4

7

0.0

8

0.1

9

0.4

9

0.2

3

0.4

8

0.2

4

0.1

7

0.0

9

0.1

8

0.1

3

0.22

0.27

0.0

7

0.0

9

0.0

3

0.0

5

0.1

4

0.1

20.1

0.16

0.06

0.19

0.08

0.26

0.1

1

0.3

7

0.20.08

0.05

0.13

0.25

0.18

0.3

0.2

0.39

0.09

0.21

0.32

0.38 0.1

7

0.1

0.3

6

0.1

5 0.19

0.11

0.14

0.09

0.14

0.09

0.14

0.09

0.11

0.14

0.0

5

0.0

1

0.03

0.05

0.15

0.1

0.2

8

0.1

1

0.3

4

0.5

1

0.13

0.36

0.0

4

0.0

8

0.23

0.07

0.25

0.25

0.1

6

0.3

1

00

0.16

0.13

0.1

0.190.41

0.28

0.06

0.12 0.0

4

0.0

4

0.25

0.15

0.2

1

0.0

7

0.08

0.250.16

0.2

0.1

3

0.3

20.3

0.3

4

0.07

0.14

0.3

0.3

3

0.21

0.1

0.6

2

0.4

0.2

2

0.1

1

0.24

0.27

0.33

0.09

Increase

Decrease

Greater than 1.0

0.8 to 1.0

0.6 to 0.8

Less than 0.6

AECOM




25

3.4.4 Scenario 4 – Craigieburn Road and Boundary Road E6 connections

Scenario 4 differs from the Reference Case in that both Craigieburn Road and Boundary Road provide

connections to the E6. Summerhill Road does not.

Table 12 and Table 13 show there is no significant difference in overall travel behaviour compared to the



Location

Ultimate scenario

(All trips)

Scenario 4






Central suburbs 100 100 100 1,900 0 300 100 1,600



All regions 15,600 15,600 15,600 21,500 14,800 18,400 800 3,100







Central suburbs 0% 6% 0% 2% 11% 54% 67% 85%



All regions 52% 72% 100% 100% 100% 100% 5% 14%

Figure 26 shows that this combination of interchanges increases traffic on Epping Road north of Boundary Road

by around 3200 vehicles, but reduces traffic on Summerhill Road by between 900 and 1100 vehicles along most

of its length, and more so on the section that connects to the interchange location. There are minor changes in

flows on Craigieburn Road. Figure 27 identifies areas of potential congestion on Epping Road southbound of

Boundary Road, on the northern and southern boundaries of Wollert PSP on Koukoura Drive; and along

Boundary Road east of the precinct. The overall congestion pattern is similar to the reference case.

AECOM




26



600

600

2100

2100

2100

2100

100

100

200

200

200

200

200

200

100

100

-800

-800

-800

-800

-800

-800

-800

-800-800

-800

-800

-800

500

500

100

100

300

300

300

300

200

200

200

200

-600

-1100

500

-1100

-1100

-1100

-1100

-5800

-5800

-1100-800

-800

500

-2000

-2000

100-1900

100

-1900

-2500

3700

3700

-1400

-600

-1400

-1400

-1100

-600

-1400-1400

-200

700

-1100

-1100 700

1200

-200-2

00

-200

-200

-200

-200

-300

-400

-400

-400

-300

200

200

-900

-900

200

200

200

200100

100

-1900

-1900

200

200

-600

-600

200

200

3500

3500

200

200

300

300

200

200

100

100

-1000

-1000

200

200

300

300

-200

-200

-300

-300

3500

3500

200

200

100

100

-200

-200

100

100

100

100

3200

3200

0.08

0.15

0.08

0.15

0.0

1

0.0

1

0.05

0.04

0

0

0.02

0.02

0.0

2

0.0

70.0

7

0.2

1

0.2

1

0.0

7

0.92

0.75

0.34

0.32

0.7

2

0.2

6

0.21

0.15

0.5

10.2

7

0.5

3

0.1

8

0.12

0.15

0.21

0.3

0.7

5

0.3

1

0.43

0.28

0.32

0.16

0.32

0.16

0.36

0.17

0.0

3

0.1

2

0.36

0.17

0.36

0.17

0.36

0.17

0.0

1

0.0

5

0.03

0.02

0.28

0.79

0.79

0.28

0.28

0.79

0.79

0.28

0.92

0.75

0.24

0.21

0.1

8

0.2 0.21

0.240.4

9

0.2

6

0.8

70.8

7

0.08

0.140.08

0.14

0.08

0.14

0.01

0.01

0.8

70.8

70.8

7

0.5

40.5

4

0.76

0.64

0.8

70.7

0.2

8

0.7

0.7

0.4

8

0.4

80.4

80.4

8

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.7

0.7

0.88

0.48

0.17

0.48

0.48

0.48

0.1

7 0.31

0.880.8

80.8

8

0.1

0.13

0.1

2

0.0

8

0.8

2

0.1

1

0.8

2

0.8

2

0.5

5

0.5

5

0.59

0.59

0.59

0.1

4

0.0

6

0.0

6

0.6

3

0

0

0.45

0.02

00

0

0

0.1

9

0.22

0.38

0.17

0.25

0.5

5

0.3

2

0.38

0.3

0.32

0.34

0.6

7

0.2

5

0.13

0.15

0.2

6

0.4

6

0.12

0.15

0.1

3

0.1

8

0.15

0.160.1

2

0.3

0.21

0.15 0.4

6

0.1

7

0.4

4

0.2

9

0.4

6

0.3

4

0.43

0.28

0.2

9

0.6

7

0.05

0.12

0.2

0.22

0.01

0.02 0.2

8

0.2

8 0.19

0.3

0.1

3

0.4

4

0.4

4

0.2

9

0.7

2

0.2

6

0

0.01

0.1

8

0.1

2

0.2

0.1

2

0.4

5

0.2

5

0.3

5

0.2

6

0.26

0.17

0.24

0.17

0.17

0.15

0.23

0.17

0.1

2

0.1

1

0.13

0.11

0.08

0.08

0.37

0.18

0.09

0.09

0.09

0.1

0.13

0.1

0.47

0.34

0.49

0.39

0.4

1

0.2

6

0.14

0.13

0.1

0.15

0.19

0.3

0

0

0.0

6

0.0

2

0

0

0.0

9

0.0

9

0.1

5

0.3

8

0.24

0.39

0.7

3

0.2

2

0.09

0.28

0.15

0.27

0.0

1

0.0

1

0.0

4

0.0

2

0.0

3

0.0

2

0.1

0.15

0.0

8

0.1

1

0.1

1

0.0

8

0.24

0.22

0.08

0.28

0.1

0.1

2

0.1

4

0.0

6

0.26

0.34

0.2

2

0.4

9

0.51

0.26

0.27

0.31

0.4

0.1

2

0.08

0.26

0.12

0.26

0.22

0.38

0.1

5

0.3

8

0.6

4

0.2

1

0.27

0.36

0.1

0.19

0.4

0.1

9

0.0

2

0.0

3

0.16

0.17

0.26

0.21

0.28

0.3

0.0

6

0.1

3

0.0

6

0.1

3

0.14

0.28

0.09

0.17

0.08

0.06

0.0

9

0.0

9

0.27

0.22

0.5

1

0.2

6

0.2

7

0.1

9

0.3

0.4

8

0.0

8

0.1

9

0.4

8

0.2

2

0.4

6

0.2

3

0.1

7

0.0

9

0.1

9

0.1

2

0.26

0.32

0.0

9

0.1

4

0.0

3

0.0

5

0.1

4

0.1

20.08

0.12

0.04

0.14

0.08

0.26

0.1

1

0.3

7

0.20.08

0.05

0.13

0.25

0.16

0.29

0.19

0.38

0.09

0.21

0.34

0.38 0.1

6

0.0

9

0.3

3

0.1

5 0.21

0.15

0.13

0.09

0.13

0.09

0.13

0.09

0.11

0.14

0.0

5

0.0

1

0.03

0.05

0.12

0.08

0.2

8

0.1

1

0.3

2

0.4

8

0.12

0.35

0.0

3

0.0

8

0.22

0.07

0.25

0.24

0.1

5

0.3

1

00

0.14

0.12

0.1

0.20.4

0.27

0.04

0.08 0.0

4

0.0

4

0.24

0.16

0.2

1

0.0

6

0.09

0.280.14

0.15

0.1

1

0.3

0.3

0.3

5

0.07

0.14

0.3

0.3

3

0.2

0.09

0.5

8

0.3

6

0.2

2

0.1

1

0.26

0.3

0.33

0.09

Greater than 1.0

0.8 to 1.0

0.6 to 0.8

Less than 0.6

Increase

Decrease

AECOM




27

3.5 Theme Two: Arterial road design widths

3.5.1 Scenario 5 – Koukoura Drive, Summerhill Road four lanes

In Scenario 5, Koukoura Drive and Summerhill Road are assumed to be four lanes, whereas the reference case

assumes them to be six lanes.

Table 14and Table 15 show there is no significant difference in overall travel behaviour compared to the reference



Location

Ultimate scenario

(All trips)

Scenario 5






Central suburbs 100 1,900 100 1,900 0 300 100 1,600



All regions 15,600 21,400 15,600 21,400 14,800 18,400 800 3,100







Central suburbs 0% 6% 0% 2% 11% 54% 67% 85%



All regions 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 5% 14%

Figure 28 shows that with a four-lane Koukoura Drive and Summerhill Road, traffic crossing the northern study

area boundary is redistributed. There are some 2,500 fewer trips per day on Koukoura Drive. Investigations of the

model output showed that this traffic was redistributed widely across the regional network, including Epping Road

and the E6 corridor in the model area, but also to other routes that have not been investigated in detail in this

study.

Summerhill Road continues to have a good level of service under this scenario. Nevertheless, some traffic is

redistributed from Summerhill Road to Boundary Road to access the freeway and Epping Road corridors.

Figure 29 shows that Koukoura Drive now has some areas of localised congestion between Summerhill Road and

Boundary Road, and efficient use of planned capacity between Boundary Road and Craigieburn Road. Epping

Road continues to perform broadly as per the reference case.

AECOM




28



600

600

200

200

200

200

-800

-800

-100

-100

-1500

-1500

100

100

100

100

300

300

-400

-400

-400

-400

-500

-500

-500

-500

-500

-500

-500

-500

600

600

200

200

200

200

-100

-100

100

100

-300

-300-300

-300

-300

-300

1002

00

200

300

300

100

100

100

-100

-100

-100

-100

300

300

300

100

100

100

-100

-100

-100

-100

100100

100

100

100

100

100

-200

-200

-2500

-2500

-300

-300

-2200

-2200-100

-100 200

200

-400

-400

100

100

-800

-800

100

100

100

100

200

200

200

200

300

300

-300

-300

-700

-700

-2400

-2400

-190

0-190

0

-400

-400

200

200

300

300

200

200

300

300-1900

-1900

-200

-200

100

100

-2500

-2500

-2600

-2600

100

100

100

100

100

100

-200

-200

-200

-200

-300

-300

200

200

0.08

0.14

0.08

0.14

0.0

1

0.0

1

0.05

0.04

0

0

0.02

0.02

0

0.1

20.0

3

0.2

0.2

0.0

3

0.93

0.74

0.32

0.32

0.6

6

0.2

6

0.21

0.14

0.6

50.3

9

0.5

3

0.1

8

0.11

0.15

0.21

0.3

0.7

6

0.3

1

0.42

0.29

0.33

0.16

0.33

0.16

0.36

0.17

0.0

3

0.1

2

0.36

0.17

0.36

0.17

0.36

0.17

0

0.1

1

0.03

0.01

0.28

0.8

0.8

0.28

0.28

0.8

0.8

0.28

0.93

0.74

0.24

0.19

0.1

8

0.2 0.2

0.230.50.2

6

0.8

8

0.0

7

0.8

4

0.15

0.210.15

0.21

0.15

0.21

0

0.15

0.17

0.0

7

0.03

0.0

3

0.8

40.9

20.9

2

0.5

4 0.0

7

0.5

4

0.0

7

0.1

3

0.68

0.53

0.9

20.7

4

0.3

0.7

40.7

4

0.5

1

0.5

10.5

10.5

1

0.13

0.1

3

0.30.3

0.740.74

0.89

0.51

0.15

0.51

0.51

0.51

0.1

5 0.25

0.890.8

90.8

9

0.1

0.13

0.1

2

0.0

8

0.8

2

0.1

1

0.8

2

0.8

2

0.5

6

0.5

6

0.59

0.59

0.59

0.1

4

0.0

6

0.0

6

0.6

4

0

0

0.44

0.02

00

0

0

0.1

8

0.22

0.38

0.17

0.24

0.5

7

0.3

2

0.39

0.3

0.31

0.32

0.8

3

0.3

5

0.23

0.22

0.3

6

0.5

6

0.11

0.15

0.1

3

0.1

8

0.15

0.160.1

2

0.2

90.21

0.14 0.4

8

0.1

8

0.4

5

0.2

9

0.4

5

0.3

4

0.42

0.29

0.3

0.6

7

0.14

0.22

0.19

0.22

0.01

0.02 0.2

9

0.2

7 0.19

0.3

0.1

3

0.4

5

0.4

5

0.2

9

0.6

6

0.2

6

0

0

0.1

9

0.1

2

0.2

1

0.1

2

0.4

6

0.2

6

0.3

6

0.2

7

0.25

0.15

0.24

0.15

0.17

0.15

0.23

0.16

0.1

7

0.1

3

0.13

0.1

0.08

0.07

0.37

0.18

0.09

0.09

0.09

0.1

0.13

0.1

0.46

0.34

0.48

0.39

0.4

1

0.2

5

0.13

0.12

0.1

0.15

0.19

0.3

0

0

0.0

6

0.0

2

0

0

0.0

8

0.0

9

0.0

8

0.3

2

0.25

0.38

0.7

5

0.2

2

0.09

0.25

0.16

0.25

0.0

3

0.0

1

0.0

5

0.0

2

0.0

3

0.0

1

0.19

0.22

0.0

6

0.1

0.1

1

0.0

9

0.24

0.22

0.09

0.25

0.1

2

0.1

2

0.1

6

0.0

6

0.24

0.31

0.3

0.5

8

0.64

0.37

0.28

0.3

0.4

0.1

2

0.08

0.27

0.15

0.27

0.21

0.35

0.0

8

0.3

2

0.6

6

0.2

1

0.26

0.35

0.1

0.2

0.4

0.1

7

0.0

4

0.0

3

0.16

0.17

0.3

0.21

0.33

0.3

0.0

8

0.1

3

0.0

8

0.1

3

0.14

0.29

0.09

0.18

0.08

0.06

0.0

9

0.0

9

0.29

0.22

0.6

4

0.3

7

0.2

4

0.1

6

0.3

0.4

9

0.0

9

0.2

0.5

7

0.2

9

0.8

2

0.4

6

0.1

8

0.0

9

0.1

9

0.1

2

0.28

0.32

0.0

8

0.1

4

0.0

2

0.0

6

0.1

5

0.1

20.08

0.11

0.04

0.14

0.09

0.27

0.1

1

0.3

7

0.08

0.04

0.15

0.25

0.17

0.29

0.21

0.38

0.11

0.21

0.34

0.38 0.1

8

0.0

9

0.3

4

0.1

5 0.2

0.14

0.13

0.08

0.13

0.08

0.13

0.08

0.11

0.14

0.0

5

0.0

1

0.05

0.05

0.12

0.08

0.3

0.1

1

0.3

3

0.4

9

0.12

0.35

0.0

3

0.0

8

0.21

0.06

0.23

0.25

0.1

5

0.3

3

0.0

10

0.14

0.13

0.09

0.20.36

0.27

0.04

0.08 0.0

3

0.0

4

0.24

0.15

0.2

2

0.0

6

0.09

0.280.14

0.15

0.0

5

0.2

5

0.3

2

0.3

5

0.07

0.14

0.3

0.3

4

0.2

0.09

0.5

8

0.3

6

0.2

2

0.1

1

0.24

0.29

0.35

0.08

Increase

Decrease

Greater than 1.0

0.8 to 1.0

0.6 to 0.8

Less than 0.6

AECOM




29

3.5.2 Scenario 6 – Koukoura Drive, Summerhill Road, Craigieburn Road four lanes

In Scenario 6, Koukoura Drive, Summerhill Road and Craigieburn Road are assumed to be four lanes, whereas

the reference case assumes them to be six lanes.

Table 16 and Table 17 show there is no significant difference in overall travel behaviour compared to the



Location

Ultimate scenario

(All trips)

Scenario 6






Central suburbs 100 1,900 100 1,900 0 300 100 1,600



All regions 15,600 21,400 15,600 21,500 14,800 18,400 800 3,100







Central suburbs 0% 6% 0% 2% 11% 54% 67% 85%



All regions 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 5% 14%

Figure 30 shows that the network effects of Scenario 6 are similar to Scenario 5, with the additional effect that

Craigieburn Road becomes a relatively less attractive east-west option from Wollert, with Boundary Road

experiencing a further small increase in forecast volumes of traffic travelling to and from the freeway corridor

compared to Scenario 5.

Road network performance has a similar pattern as in Scenario 5, with localised congestion but otherwise efficient

use of planned capacity in Koukoura Drive, and east-west volume-capacity ratios of less than 0.3.

AECOM




30

Figure 30 Daily volume difference plot comparing Scenario 6 results to the reference case

Figure 31 AM peak volume capacity ratios, scenario 6 network

-100

-100

-100

-100

600

600

300

300

300

300

-300

-300

-800

-800

-400

-400

-1600

-1600

200

200

-300

-300

-300

-300

300

300

-100

-100

-400

-400

-400

-400

-400

-400

-400

-400-400

-400

-400

-400

600

600

300

300

300

300

-600

-600

-500

-500

-300

-300-300

-300

-300

-300

200

200

200

200

200

-100

-100

200

200

-200

-200

-2500

-2500

-200

-200

-2200

-2200

-300

-300

-300

-300

-400

-400-100

-100

100

100

-400

-400

-400

-400

-800

-800

100

100

-100

-100

-400

-400

300

300

200

200

300

300

-200

-200

-600

-600

-2400

-2400

-190

0-190

0 100

100-400

-400

300

300

300

300

200

200

200

200-1900

-1900

-100

-100

100

100

-2500

-2500

-2600

-2600

200

200

100

100

-200

-200

-200

-200

-300

-300

300

300

0.12

0.21

0.12

0.21

0.0

1

0.0

1

0.05

0.04

0

0

0.02

0.02

0

0.1

20.0

3

0.1

9

0.1

9

0.0

3

0.92

0.74

0.48

0.48

0.6

5

0.2

6

0.31

0.21

0.6

50.3

9

0.5

3

0.1

8

0.17

0.21

0.31

0.43

0.7

7

0.3

2

0.42

0.29

0.33

0.16

0.33

0.16

0.36

0.17

0.0

3

0.1

2

0.36

0.17

0.36

0.17

0.36

0.17

0

0.1

1

0.02

0.01

0.28

0.8

0.8

0.28

0.28

0.8

0.8

0.28

0.92

0.74

0.35

0.29

0.1

8

0.2 0.3

0.330.4

8

0.2

6

0.8

7

0.0

7

0.8

4

0.15

0.210.15

0.21

0.15

0.21

0

0.15

0.18

0.0

7

0.03

0.0

3

0.8

40.9

10.9

1

0.5

4 0.0

7

0.5

4

0.0

7

0.1

3

0.69

0.54

0.9

10.7

3

0.3

1

0.7

30.7

3

0.5

1

0.5

10.5

10.5

1

0.13

0.1

3

0.730.73

0.88

0.51

0.14

0.51

0.51

0.51

0.1

4 0.25

0.880.8

80.8

8

0.1

0.12

0.1

2

0.0

8

0.8

1

0.1

1

0.8

1

0.8

1

0.5

6

0.5

6

0.59

0.59

0.59

0.1

4

0.0

6

0.0

6

0.6

4

0

0

0.45

0.02

00

0

0

0.1

8

0.22

0.38

0.17

0.25

0.5

7

0.3

2

0.39

0.3

0.32

0.33

0.8

2

0.3

5

0.23

0.23

0.3

6

0.5

5

0.17

0.21

0.1

3

0.1

8

0.23

0.230.1

2

0.3

0.31

0.21 0.4

7

0.1

8

0.4

6

0.2

8

0.4

5

0.3

4

0.42

0.29

0.3

0.6

7

0.14

0.22

0.19

0.22

0.02

0.02 0.2

9

0.2

7 0.29

0.43

0.1

3

0.4

4

0.4

6

0.2

8

0.6

5

0.2

6

0

0

0.1

9

0.1

2

0.2

1

0.1

2

0.4

4

0.2

6

0.3

5

0.2

7

0.26

0.15

0.24

0.15

0.17

0.15

0.23

0.16

0.1

7

0.1

3

0.13

0.1

0.08

0.07

0.37

0.18

0.09

0.09

0.09

0.1

0.13

0.1

0.46

0.34

0.48

0.39

0.4

1

0.2

5

0.13

0.12

0.1

0.15

0.29

0.43

0

0

0.0

6

0.0

2

0

0

0.0

8

0.0

9

0.0

8

0.3

2

0.25

0.39

0.7

5

0.2

3

0.09

0.25

0.16

0.25

0.0

3

0.0

1

0.0

5

0.0

2

0.0

3

0.0

1

0.19

0.23

0.0

6

0.1

0.1

1

0.0

9

0.25

0.22

0.09

0.25

0.1

2

0.1

2

0.1

6

0.0

6

0.24

0.31

0.3

0.5

8

0.64

0.37

0.28

0.31

0.4

1

0.1

2

0.08

0.27

0.15

0.27

0.21

0.35

0.0

8

0.3

2

0.6

6

0.2

1

0.26

0.36

0.1

0.19

0.4

0.1

7

0.0

4

0.0

3

0.16

0.17

0.29

0.21

0.31

0.3

0.0

7

0.1

3

0.0

7

0.1

3

0.14

0.29

0.09

0.17

0.08

0.06

0.0

9

0.0

9

0.29

0.22

0.6

4

0.3

7

0.2

4

0.1

7

0.3

0.4

9

0.0

9

0.2

0.5

7

0.3

0.8

2

0.4

6

0.1

8

0.0

9

0.1

9

0.1

2

0.28

0.33

0.0

8

0.1

4

0.0

2

0.0

5

0.1

5

0.1

20.08

0.11

0.04

0.14

0.09

0.27

0.1

1

0.3

7

0.08

0.04

0.15

0.26

0.17

0.28

0.2

0.37

0.11

0.21

0.34

0.38 0.1

8

0.0

9

0.3

3

0.1

5 0.21

0.16

0.13

0.09

0.13

0.08

0.13

0.09

0.11

0.14

0.0

5

0.0

1

0.04

0.05

0.12

0.08

0.2

9

0.1

1

0.3

3

0.4

9

0.12

0.34

0.0

3

0.0

8

0.21

0.06

0.23

0.25

0.1

5

0.3

3

0.0

10

0.14

0.13

0.09

0.20.36

0.27

0.04

0.08 0.0

3

0.0

4

0.24

0.15

0.2

2

0.0

6

0.09

0.280.14

0.15

0.0

6

0.2

5

0.3

2

0.3

5

0.07

0.14

0.3

0.3

4

0.2

0.09

0.5

8

0.3

6

0.2

2

0.1

1

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.08

Increase

Decrease

Greater than 1.0

0.8 to 1.0

0.6 to 0.8

Less than 0.6

AECOM




31

3.5.3 Travel speeds and level of service

AustRoads guidance recommends the following interpretations of Level of Service based on the percentage of

free flow speeds. In summary:

- LOS A describes primarily free-flow operation.

- LOS B describes reasonably unimpeded operation.

- LOS C describes stable operation.

- LOS D indicates a less stable condition in which small increases in flow may cause substantial increases in

delay and decreases in travel speed.

- LOS E is characterised by unstable operation and significant delay.

- LOS F is characterised by flow at extremely low speed. Congestion is likely occurring at the boundary

intersections, as indicated by high delay and extensive queuing. The travel speed is 30% or less of the base

free-flow speed.

The relevant criteria are presented in Table 18.

Table 18 Level of Service Criteria for cars on urban streets

Travel speed as a percentage of base

Free Flow Speed (%)

LOS by critical volume-to-capacity ratio

≤ 1.0 > 1.0

> 85 A F

> 67–85 B F

> 50–67 C F

> 40–50 D F

> 30–40 E F

≤ 30 F F

Table 19 summarises the relevant model inputs and outputs for the reference case and scenarios 5 and 6; Table

20 presents the associated Level of Service value. It shows a minor reduction in the Level of Service on Koukoura

Road from A to B; however, the actual result is 84.4%, indicating it only narrowly falls below the LOS A criteria.

Table 19 AM Peak Average Speed (km/h) for reference case and Scenarios 5 and 6

Road Modelled free flow speed (All

networks)

Ref SC5 SC6

Ultimate

Koukoura,

Summerhil 4

lanes

Koukoura, Summerhill,

Craigieburn 4 lanes

Local roads 33 33 33 33

Summerhill Rd 64 63 62 62

Boundary Rd 43 43 43 43

Craigieburn Rd 64 62 62 61

Koukoura Dr 64 60 54 54

Epping Rd 48 (north of Craigieburn Road)

64 (south of Craigieburn Road) 44 44 44

AECOM




32

Table 20 Indicated LOS based on criteria in Table 18

Road Ref SC5 SC6

Ultimate Koukoura, Summerhil 4 lanes Koukoura, Summerhill, Craigieburn 4 lanes

Local roads A A A

Summerhill Rd A A A

Boundary Rd A A A

Craigieburn Rd A A A

Koukoura Dr A B B

Epping Rd A A A

3.6 Theme 3: The role of rail

3.6.1 Scenario 7 – No rail to Wollert

Scenario 7 differs from the Reference Case in that there is no rail service to Wollert.

Table 21 and Table 22 shows there is a significant difference in overall travel behaviour compared to the

reference case. Public transport trips to and from the central suburbs fall significantly as a source of public

transport patronage, and internal trips become relatively more important as a source of boardings. Mode share for

trips to and from the central suburbs, other northern suburbs and the Rest of Melbourne zones falls significantly,

although it is noted that public transport still dominates the share of trips to central Melbourne.


Location

Ultimate scenario

(All trips)

Scenario 7






Central suburbs 100 1,900 100 1,200 0 300 0 900



All regions 15,600 21,400 15,700 21,200 15,000 19,200 700 2,000




Wollert 25% 48% 37% 42% 16% 4%



Central suburbs 0% 4% 0% 2% 6% 44% 48% 73%



All regions 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 5% 9%

AECOM




33

As a result of the lack of rail services, traffic levels increase across most of the network, except around the Wollert

town centre, as shown in Figure 32. However, generally the increase on any individual link is small (200 vehicles

or less). Figure 33 shows the pattern of congestion remains the same as in the Reference Case, as the shift in

traffic is generally well within the capacity of the roads. Figure 34 shows the line loads for bus services when no

trains are provided, and Figure 35 shows the difference to the Reference Case.

Although all bus routes play a role in replacing the rail service, a notable desire line from Wollert to Epping Road

emerges as the preferred route towards the central city. Note also that buses feeding to the train station from

Koukoura Road have a modelled increase in boardings despite the lack of a train station. This result can be

interpreted as people who previously walked or drove to the station now using a feeder bus for the longer trip to

the next nearest station.

Figure 32 Scenario 7 difference plot to Reference Case (highway)

100

100

100

100

-100

-100

-200

-200

-200

-200

400

400

300

300

300

300

500500

200

200

200

200

400

400

300

300

500

500

200

200

200

200

200

200

200

200200

200

200

200

-100

-100

200

-100

-100

200

200

-100

-100

200

400

400

100

100 400

400300

300

-200

-200

-200

-200

-200

-200

-200

900

900

-100

-100

-100

-400

-400

-400

-400

200

200

200

-100-100

200

-400

400

-400

-400

-400 400

300

200200

200

200

200

200

200

200

200

100

100

100

100

-300

-300

-200

-200

200

200

200

200

300

300

300

300 200

200

300

300

500

500

200

200 1

00

100

400

400

300

300

300

300

300

300

100

100

200

200

100

100

100

100

200

200

-100

-100

100

100

400

400

700

700

200

200

100

100

100

100

200

200

100

100

100

100

200

200

30030

0

200

200

200

200

200

200

200

200

100

100200

200

-100

-100

-100

-100

300

300

-100

-100

-100

-100

200

200

100

100

100

100

300

300

200

200

-200

-200

100

100

100

100

200

200

100

100

-200

-200

100

100

100

100100

100

-100

-100

-200

-200

-200

-200

100

100

Increase

Decrease

AECOM




34


Figure 34 Scenario 7 daily public transport line loads

0.08

0.16

0.08

0.16

0.0

1

0.0

1

0.05

0.04

0

0

0.02

0.02

0

0.0

40.0

3

0.1

4

0.1

4

0.0

3

0.92

0.76

0.36

0.31

0.7

2

0.2

7

0.22

0.15

0.5

20.2

7

0.5

4

0.1

9

0.11

0.16

0.21

0.31

0.7

6

0.3

10.46

0.28

0.34

0.16

0.34

0.16

0.38

0.17

0.0

3

0.1

2

0.38

0.17

0.38

0.17

0.38

0.17

0

0.0

3

0.02

0.01

0.28

0.78

0.78

0.28

0.28

0.78

0.78

0.28

0.92

0.76

0.25

0.21

0.1

9

0.2

2 0.21

0.250.5

1

0.2

7

0.8

6

0.0

7

0.8

2

0.1

0.160.1

0.16

0.1

0.16

0

0.1

0.12

0.0

7

0.03

0.0

3

0.8

20.9

0.9

0.5

4 0.0

7

0.5

4

0.0

7

0.1

4

0.69

0.57

0.9

0.7

2

0.3

1

0.7

20.7

2

0.5

1

0.5

10.5

10.5

1

0.13

0.1

3

0.720.72

0.88

0.51

0.15

0.51

0.51

0.51

0.1

5 0.29

0.880.8

80.8

8

0.1

0.13

0.1

3

0.0

8

0.8

2

0.1

2

0.8

2

0.8

2

0.5

6

0.5

6

0.59

0.59

0.59

0.1

4

0.0

6

0.0

6

0.6

4

0

0

0

0

00

0

0

0.2

0.23

0.38

0.18

0.25

0.5

5

0.2

9

0.33

0.33

0.25

0.36

0.6

4

0.2

60.16

0.16

0.2

7

0.4

4

0.11

0.16

0.1

3

0.1

8

0.15

0.170.1

2

0.3

0.22

0.15 0.4

9

0.1

8

0.4

5

0.3

0.4

7

0.3

5

0.46

0.28

0.2

9

0.6

8

0.08

0.15

0.2

0.23

0.01

0.02 0.2

9

0.3

0.19

0.31

0.1

3

0.4

6

0.4

5

0.3

0.7

2

0.2

7

0

0.01

0.1

9

0.1

2

0.2

1

0.1

2

0.4

8

0.2

6

0.3

6

0.2

6

0.28

0.16

0.26

0.15

0.18

0.17

0.24

0.18

0.1

8

0.1

2

0.15

0.1

0.09

0.07

0.34

0.18

0.06

0.09

0.1

0.1

0.14

0.1

0.47

0.31

0.49

0.36

0.4

1

0.2

20.15

0.13

0.11

0.15

0.19

0.31

0

0

0.0

5

0.0

2

0

0

0.0

8

0.0

9

0.0

8

0.2

9

0.23

0.43

0.7

4

0.2

2

0.09

0.27

0.16

0.27

0.0

1

0.0

1

0.0

3

0.0

2

0.0

2

0.0

1

0.13

0.17

0.0

6

0.1

1

0.1

2

0.0

8

0.25

0.24

0.09

0.27

0.10.1

0.1

4

0.0

4

0.27

0.31

0.2

3

0.4

8

0.52

0.26

0.24

0.34

0.3

7

0.1

20.09

0.31

0.15

0.31

0.23

0.34

0.0

8

0.2

9

0.6

5

0.2

1

0.26

0.37

0.1

0.2

0.3

8

0.1

8

0.0

2

0.0

3

0.17

0.15

0.28

0.21

0.31

0.28

0.0

6

0.0

9

0.0

6

0.0

9

0.13

0.29

0.09

0.18

0.05

0.06

0.0

6

0.0

9

0.28

0.22

0.5

2

0.2

6

0.2

7

0.1

5

0.3

1

0.4

2

0.0

8

0.2

1

0.4

7

0.2

3

0.4

4

0.2

4

0.1

7

0.1

0.1

9

0.1

3

0.24

0.36

0.0

9

0.1

3

0.0

3

0.0

5

0.1

4

0.1

0.08

0.13

0.04

0.14

0.09

0.31

0.1

1

0.3

2

0.08

0.04

0.14

0.21

0.16

0.29

0.2

0.35

0.09

0.21

0.34

0.4 0.1

7

0.0

8

0.3

4

0.1

4 0.21

0.16

0.14

0.08

0.14

0.08

0.14

0.08

0.11

0.14

0.0

5

0.0

1

0.03

0.05

0.12

0.08

0.3

0.1

1

0.3

3

0.4

6

0.12

0.36

0.0

3

0.0

4

0.19

0.07

0.26

0.25

0.1

6

0.2

8

00

0.14

0.13

0.1

0.210.41

0.28

0.04

0.08 0.0

4

0.0

4

0.22

0.17

0.1

8

0.0

7

0.09

0.280.14

0.16

0.0

5

0.2

10.2

4

0.3

5

0.08

0.14

0.3

1

0.2

6

0.21

0.09

0.5

9

0.3

3

0.1

9

0.1

1

0.25

0.31

0.34

0.09

200

300

200

300

100

100

1000

900

300

200

900

800

300

200

800

700

200

300

200

300

800

700

1600

1500

100

100

200

300

200

300 200

300

200

300

100

100

200

300

300

300

100

100

100

100

300

300

300

300

700

600

300

300

400

400

200

300

200

300

900

800 300

200

600

600

100

100

1600

1500

100

200

200

300 2

00

200

200

300

200

200

600

600

300

200

200

200

200

300

200

300

100

100

100

100

300

300

300

300

200

300

100

100

00

00

100

100

00

1000

300

200

20020

0

0

0

300

200

100

100

700

600

300

200

300

200

300

200

300

200

200

200

1200

1100

900

1000

300

300

300

300

300

400

100

100

0

0

0 0

100

100700

900

700

900

0

0

500

500

100

200

300

200

100

100

200

200

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

900

900

900

900

300

200

200

300

1200

1100

400

400

400

400

700

900

200

200

200

200

700

900

800

700

200

200

900

1000

700

800

200

300

700

700 100

200

Bus Loads

Train Loads

Greater than 1.0

0.8 to 1.0

0.6 to 0.8

Less than 0.6

AECOM




35

Figure 35 Scenario 7 difference plot to Reference Case (public transport)

3.7 Interim Scenarios

Table 23 and Table 24 show that at the interim stage of development:

- Travel patterns in Wollert are relatively more self-contained, with 30 percent of trips internal to the precinct.

In the ultimate scenario, this is 24 percent.

- The area of Whittlesea north of Wollert is less significant for travel, probably because it has not yet been

developed. As a result, the demand pattern is more southerly-oriented.

- Mode share to public transport is lower, and internal trips a relatively more significant source of boardings

than longer distance trips.

Table 23 Interim AM peak trips to and from Wollert by mode and origin/destination region

Location All trips Car Public Transport

To From To From To From

Wollert (internal trip) 6,100 6,000 200

Whittlesea Nth of Wollert 900 1,000 900 1,000 0 0

Whittlesea Sth of Wollert 2,300 3,300 2,200 3,100 100 100

Central suburbs 100 1,100 0 300 0 800

Other northern suburbs 1,300 4,200 1,300 3,700 0 500

Rest of Melbourne 100 400 100 200 0 200

All regions 10,800 16,100 10,500 14,300 300 1,800

100

200

100

200

500

500

100

100

400

400

100

100

600

500

100

200

100

200

600

500

600

500

100

200

100

200 100

200

100

200

100

200

200

100

-4400

-3900

0

-100

0

-100

-200200

100

200

200

0

0

200

200

100

200

100

200

400

400 300

200

200

300

0

100

600

500

100

100

100

200 1

00

100

100

200

100

100

200

300

100

100

0

0

100

200

100

200

0

0

0

100

100

100

100

100

100

200

00

00

100

100

-100

-100

-100

-100

100

10010

0

-100

-100

-100

100

0

-100

600

400

200

200

200

100

200

100

200

100

100

100

600

600

400

400

00

100

100

100

200

00

-100

-100

0 0

-100

-100400

500

400

600

0

0

200

200

0

100

200

100

0-100

100

100

0

00

0

0

0

0

100

100

500

500

500

500

200

200

100

200

700

600

100

100

100

100

400

500

-100

100

-100

100

400

600

400

400

100

100

400

400

300

500

100

100

300

300 0

100

Increase

Decrease

Removed Link

AECOM




36

Table 24 Interim scenario AM peak trips to and from Wollert by mode and origin/destination region by percentages



Wollert 30% 57% 42% 53% 9% 3%



Central suburbs 0% 5% 0% 2% 12% 44% 52% 72%



All regions 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 3% 11%

The volumes of traffic forecast on the network are shown in Figure 36. Epping Road is clearly the principal north-

south route in the precinct with volumes of up to 23,000 vehicles a day, whereas Koukoura Drive carries almost

16,000 vehicles a day. Craigieburn Road is the principal east-west road, with incrementally lower volumes on

each east-west route option to the north.

Figure 37 shows how traffic is forecast to change between the ultimate and interim scenarios. The major

difference is in the north-western quadrant of Wollert where Koukoura Drive and Summerhill Road become

significant traffic routes, and along the Epping Road corridor where the E6 provides some relief for through traffic,

although this varies from 2,700 vehicles to 8,100 vehicles depending on segment, showing that much of the traffic

is local and accessing the interchanges using Epping Road. Elsewhere on the network increases of 1000 to 3000

vehicles a day are observed, with the higher volume changes on the main feeder links, Boundary Road and in the

town centre.

In the interim scenario, Epping Road, Boundary Road , Koukoura Drive and Craigieburn Road west all experience

congestion, including severe capacity concerns on the western exit of the precinct towards the Hume Freeway.

These locations are shown in Figure 38. By contrast, much of the proposed collector and arterial road network is

running well under capacity with low levels of demand compared to capacity on some links giving volume-capacity

ratios of less than 0.1.

Figure 39 and Figure 40 together suggest that public transport patronage achieves its ultimate forecast loadings

on some segments of the network at the interim stage of development. Buses north-west of the town centre have

more patronage in the ultimate scenario than in the interim. Most other bus routes, however, show lower

boardings when their role is largely replaced by rail in the reference case and the demand patterns become less

southerly-oriented.

AECOM




37

Figure 36 Average weekday two way flows – Interim reference case – cars only

Figure 37 Change in weekday traffic Ultimate to Interim

8100

8100

7900

7900

200

200

400

400

400400

400

400

11600

11600

10700

10700

10900

10900

15100

15100

17600

17600

10500

10500 7400

7400

15900

15900

20500

20500 8300

8300

23000

2300019900

19900

200

200

200

200

200

200

200

200200

200

200

200

10700

10700

1100

1100

33900

37100

37100

33900

33900

37100

37100

33900

15200

15200

10600

10600

2400

2400

10700

107005400

5400

15200

15200

7900

7900

6800

6800

3900

3900

2700

2700

2800

2800

9900

9900

8500

8500

1000

1000

1000

1000

8300

8300

8100

81004400

44007400

7400

5700

5700

7200

7200

6500

6500

19900

19900

6500

6500

200

200 4600

4600

4900

4900

7200

7200

10500

10500

700

700

2900

2900

3000

3000

5100

5100

4300

4300

2100

2100

2200

2200

2000

2000

2100

2100

2200

2200

1500

1500

1700

1700

4600

4600

4900

4900

1600

1600

1300

1300

1000

1000

800

800

200

200

800

800

14200

14200

8900

8900

21500

21500

3500

3500

3900

3900

200

200

200

200

1100

1100

1100

1100

1500

1500

3700

3700

3700

3700

2800

2800

3100

3100

7000

7000

7200

7200

1360

01360

0 8500

8500

3700

3700

2200

2200

2500

2500

7200

7200

14200

14200

21400

21400

3800

3800

3000

3000

3800

3800

700

700

2200

2200

4200

4200

5000

5000

2100

2100

2100

2100

5300

5300

2900

2900

900

900

1100

1100

3000

3000

13600

13600

2900

2900

5100

5100

200

200

6000

6000

4000

4000

1400

1400

1700

1700

8200

8200

1800

1800

100

100

2400

24002200

2200

2900

2900

2300

2300

2500

2500

1000

1000

500

500

2400

2400

2500

2500

4400

4400 2600

2600

4100

4100 2300

2300

1500

1500

1500

1500

1500

1500

1400

1400

500

500

900

900

1700

1700

3800

3800

4100

4100

2600

2600

1100

1100

3000

3000

2600

2600

1300

1300

3900

3900

3000

30003000

3000

1700

1700

1100

1100

2300

2300

2000

2000

3200

32003300

3300

12400

12400

4100

4100

1200

1200

3500

3500

2200

2200

4000

4000

3400

3400

1300

1300

-700

-700

-900

-900

-300

-300

400400

400

400-800

-800

11000

11000

7900

7900

8200

8200

-2600

-2600

-3100

-3100

-6000

-6000

-4200

-4200

-6600

-6600

2100

2100

-1200

-1200

2700

2700

-2400

-2400

-12800

-12800

-12800

-12800

-14200

-14200

-1400

-1400

-14100

-14100

-14100

-14100

-14100

-14100

10200

10200

900

900

7900

11400

11400

7900

7900

11400

11400

7900

-2600

-2600

-4200

-4200

-900

-900 -4600

-4600-400

-400

-33100

-1100

-31900

-7100

-7100

-7100

-7100

-6600

-6600

-1100-800

-800

-31900

-34400

-29400

-1900

-29400

-1900

-2500

-10400

-10400

-4800 -2

9600-2

9600

-26700

-4600

-29600-29600

-34800

-4600

-26700-4

600 -5200

2600

2600

2200

2200

-2100

-32600

-31300

-5800

-5800

-32900

-4700

-800

-800

-3900

-3900-2900

-2900

-24800

-24800

-8100

-8100

-19700

-19700

-1200

-1200

-3500

-3500-200

-200-4200

-4200 800

800

400

400

200

200

-2400

-2400

-1100

-1100

-6600

-6600

-200

-200 -700

-700

1100

1100

400

400

-6000

-6000

700

700

-400

-400

-500

-500

-400

-400

-600

-600

-1200

-1200

-900

-900

-200

-200

-500

-500

-2200

-2200

-600

-600

-300

-300

-1600

-1600

-300

-300

-300

-300

-400

-400

-1200

-1200

-1400

-1400

-2400

-2400

-600

-600

-900

-900

800

800

-500

-500

300

300

800

800

-300

-300

7900

7900

-3400

-3400

3400

3400

900

900

800

800

-200

-200

800

800

-7100

-7100

-1200

-1200

-100

-100

100

100

1100

1100

1100

1100

1800

1800

-4400

-4400

-13100

-13100

-840

0-840

0 -3000

-3000

-100

-100

-600

-600

-700

-700

-4400

-4400

7900

7900

6400

6400

-1900

-1900

-400

-400

-500

-500

300

300

-600

-600

800

800

700

700

400

400

400

400

-100

-100-300

-300

-300

-300

-300

-300

-500

-500

-8400

-8400

-1800

-1800

-900

-900

-2200

-2200

-14200

-14200

-15900

-15900

-500

-500

-600

-600

-3400

-3400

-400

-400

400

400500

500

1500

1500

-500

-500

-600

-600

-2300

-2300

-600

-600

300

300

-1100

-1100 700

700

1100

1100 -1300

-1300

-100

-100

-100

-100

-100

-100

-400

-400

-800

-800

900

900

-1900

-1900

-700

-700

500

500

1000

1000

-900

-900

-1900

-1900

900

900

700

700-1800

-1800

700

700 500

500

-700

-700

-600

-6001000

1000

8100

8100

-600

-600

-400

-400

-1300

-1300

-200

-200

-2600

-2600

-1300

-1300

Less than 9,000

9,000 to 18,000

18,000 to 27,000

Greater than 27,000

Increase

Decrease

Removed Link

AECOM




38

Figure 38 AM peak volume capacity ratios, Interim scenario network

Figure 39 Daily public transport line loads (interim scenario)

0.3

0.54

0.29

0.54

0.0

1

0.0

1

0.02

0.03

0.0

2

0.0

3

0.02

0.03

0.4

7

0.4

60.4

2

0.4

3

0.4

4

0.4

4

0.84

0.72

0.82

0.68

0.6

7

0.4

1

0.4

0.25

0.8

5

0.6

3

0.90.6

0.31

0.43

0.45

0.78

0.9

3

0.8

3

1.17

0.62

0.06

0

0.06

0

0.06

0

00

0.06

00.06

0

0.06

00

0.4

2

0.4

3

0.04

0.06

0.62

0.94

0.94

0.62

0.62

0.94

0.94

0.62

0.84

0.72

0.44

0.46

0.3

1

0.1 0.42

0.550.5

5

0.2

0.82

0.7

0.32

0.6

0.2

8

0.1

30.3

0

0

0

0

00

0

00.2

0.28

0.16

0.18

0.2

5

0.1 0.59

0.51

0.47

0.52

0.05

0.05

0.0

7

0.0

3

0.31

0.43

0.1

7

0.0

5

0.3

0.540.4

4

0.1

40.4

0.25 0.4

8

0.1

7

0.3

9

0.3

2

0.5

7

0.3

1

1.17

0.62

0.2

6

0.5

4

0.32

0.11

0.01

0.01 0.5

2

0.2

0.47

0.7

0.1

1

0.5

7

0.3

9

0.3

2

0.6

7

0.4

1

0.01

0.08

0.4

1

0.0

5

0.4

2

0.0

5

0.5

2

0.1

9

0.4

2

0.1

8

0.17

0.08

0.17

0.09

0.18

0.14

0.22

0.14

0.1

0.06

0.07

0.05

0.17

0.13

0.06

0.07

0.08

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.42

0.26

0.42

0.28

0.1

9

0.0

70.08

0.11

0.04

0.11

0.47

0.7

0.05

0.04

0.0

1

0.0

1

0.04

0.05

0.1

7

0.0

3

0.5

2

0.6

7

0.46

0.44

0.9

5

0.7

0.14

0.3

0.19

0.31

0.0

2

0.0

1

0.0

2

0.0

1

0.0

4

0.0

6

0.05

0.05

00.0

1

0.10.0

9

0.27

0.25

0.15

0.33

0.2

9

0.0

8

0.3

5

0.0

7

0.38

0.35

0.2

6

0.4

3

0.76

0.5

0.43

0.51

0.3

1

0.1

3

0.08

0.21

0.13

0.21

0.33

0.42

0.5

2

0.6

7

0.8

6

0.7

5

0.13

0.27

0.07

0.2

0.3

3

0.1

1

0.0

4

0.0

2

0.13

0.15

0.35

0.18

0.38

0.25

0.1

4

0.1

3

0.1

4

0.1

3

0.07

0.56

0.06

0.19

0.05

0.05

0.0

6

0.0

7

0.24

0.15

0.7

6

0.5

0.1

8

0.1

0.3

1

0.3

5

0.0

1

0.0

2

0.3

7

0.1

9

0.3

8

0.2

1

0.1

5

0.0

7

0.1

3

0.1

0.44

0.4

0.2

2

0.0

9

0.0

1

0

0.2

5

0.0

70.06

0.26

0.05

0.36

0.08

0.22

0.0

5

0.1

6

0.10.07

0.04

0.11

0.14

0.13

0.16

0.25

0.27

0.13

0.18

0.2

0.36 0.2

8

0.0

8

0.4

7

0.1

1 0.11

0.11

0.14

0.06

0.14

0.06

0.14

0.06

0.09

0.12

0.0

4

0.0

1

0.05

0.06

0.1

0.08

0.3

2

0.1

1

0.3

4

0.2

1

0.1

0.21

0.0

9

0.0

7

0.27

0.12

0.22

0.13

0.0

5

0.1

2

00

0.07

0.46

0.15

0.220.3

0.1

0.07

0.11 0.1

8

0.0

3

0.17

0.13

0.1

5

0.0

8

0.02

0.460.11

0.36

0.4

6

0.5

5

0.2

1

0.3

9

0.05

0.14

0.2

9

0.2

0.17

0.08

0.3

6

0.1

7

0.1

1

0.0

7

0.12

0.22

0.31

0.08

300

500

300

500

100

100

1300

1500

200

100

1200

1400

200

200

500

500

300

500

300

500

500

400

2100

2300

100

100

300

400

300

300 300

400300

300

100

100

300

500

500

400

100

100

100

100

300

300

300

300

300

500

300

500

1200

1400

500

300

1000

1000

100

100

2100

2300

100

100

300

300 2

00

200

300

400

200

200

1000

1000

200

100

100

100

300

300

200

300

100

100

100

100

0

0

300

400

100

100

00

00

100

100

00

00

200

200

20020

0

0

0

300

300

100

100

500

400

400

300

400

300

300

300

300

300

200

200

800

800

500

600

100

100

0

0

0 0

1000

400

500

400

500

0

0

200

200

200

200

300

300

100

100

200

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

500

600

500

600

400

300

200

200

900

800

200

200

200

200

400

500

200

200

200

200

400

500

500

500

0

0

500

500

300

400

200

200

400

400 200

200

Bus Loads

Train Loads

Greater than 1.0

0.8 to 1.0

0.6 to 0.8

Less than 0.6

AECOM




39

Figure 40 Ultimate compared to Interim scenario difference plot (public transport)

3.8 Network performance

Table 25 and Table 26 show the absolute AM peak vehicle kilometres and the change against the reference case

respectively. The tables show that:

- Scenarios 5 and 6 result in less AM peak period travel overall within the study area as a result of the

changed cross section. This does not necessarily mean that travel has been reduced – just that if it is

occurring during the modelled time, it is no longer passing through the Wollert PSP area.

- Scenario 2 is neutral with respect to the reference case.

- Scenarios 1, 3, 4 and 7 all result in increased AM peak vehicle kilometres travelled, with Scenario 3

producing the most additional kilometres.

- The reference case best minimises traffic growth on Epping Road.

300

500

300

500

100

100

1300

1500

200

100

1200

1400

200

200

500

500

300

500

300

500

500

400

2100

2300

100

100

300

400

300

300 300

400300

300

100

100

300

500

500

400

100

100

100

100

300

300

300

300

300

500

300

500

1200

1400 500

300

1000

1000

100

100

2100

2300

100

100

300

300 2

00

200

300

400

200

200

1000

1000

200

100

100

100

300

300

200

300

100

100

100

100

0

0

300

400

100

100

00

00

100

100

00

00

200

200

20020

0

0

0

300

300

100

100

500

400

400

300

400

300

300

300

300

300

200

200

800

800

500

600

100

100

0

0

0 0

1000

400

500

400

500

0

0

200

200

200

200

300

300

100

100

200

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

500

600

500

600

400

300

200

200

900

800

200

200

200

200

400

500

200

200

200

200

400

500

500

500

0

0

500

500

300

400

200

200

400

400 200

200

Higher in Interim scenario

Lower in Interim scenario

Link not present in Interim scenario

AECOM




40

Table 25 AM Peak Vehicle Kilometres Travelled (VKT)

VKT Ref SC1 SC2 SC3 SC4 SC5 SC6 SC7

Road

Ult

ima

te

Su

mm

erh

ill

-

E6

Bo

un

da

ry -

E6

Cra

igie

bu

rn -

E6

Bo

un

da

ry &

Cra

igie

bu

rn –

E6

Ko

uk

ou

ra,

Su

mm

erh

il 4

lan

es

Ko

uk

ou

ra,

Su

mm

erh

ill,

Cra

igie

bu

rn 4

lan

es

No

Ra

il

Local roads 18,946 19,161 19,033 19,161 18,974 19,072 19,007 19,652

Summerhill Rd 3,987 4,870 3,438 3,112 3,263 3,666 3,697 4,032

Boundary Rd 5,876 4,828 6,526 5,054 6,043 5,756 5,792 6,175

Craigieburn Rd 11,985 11,123 10,584 14,298 12,187 11,914 11,742 12,487

Koukoura Dr 13,433 13,472 13,271 13,815 13,347 11,486 11,514 13,363

Epping Rd 6,519 8,931 8,074 8,362 7,270 6,880 6,783 6,622

Total 60,745 62,385 60,927 63,804 61,083 58,774 58,536 62,331

Table 26 AM Peak Vehicle Kilometres Travelled (VKT) – Change from reference case


Road

Ult

ima

te

Su

mm

erh

ill

-

E6

Bo

un

da

ry -

E6

Cra

igie

bu

rn -

E6

Bo

un

da

ry &

Cra

igie

bu

rn –

E6

Ko

uk

ou

ra,

Su

mm

erh

il 4

lan

es

Ko

uk

ou

ra,

Su

mm

erh

ill,

Cra

igie

bu

rn 4

lan

es

No

Ra

il

Local roads 215 86 215 28 126 61 706

Summerhill Rd 884 -549 -874 -724 -321 -289 45

Boundary Rd -1,048 650 -822 167 -120 -84 299

Craigieburn Rd -862 -1,401 2,313 202 -71 -243 502

Koukoura Dr 40 -161 383 -86 -1,946 -1,918 -69

Epping Rd 2,412 1,556 1,844 752 362 265 103

Total 1,640 181 3,059 338 -1,971 -2,210 1,586

Table 27 shows that:

- All interchange scenarios are more effective than the reference case at reducing congested vehicle

kilometres on Epping Road.

- Scenarios 2 and 4 result in significantly worse congestion than the reference case on Boundary Road.

- The reduction of arterial road widths in Scenarios 5 and 6 does not cause wider network congestion,

although it does increase the total amount of measured network congestion. Table 27 shows that compared

to the reference case, the additional length of road with volume-capacity ratio greater than 0.6 is almost

entirely attributable to Koukoura Drive – that is, the extra congestion is entirely on that link, not elsewhere in

the network.

- The ‘no rail’ scenario does not substantially change the percentage of vehicle kilometres in congested

conditions compared to the reference case.

AECOM




41

Table 27 AM Peak Percentage of Vehicle Kilometres Travelled (VKT) with VCR greater than 0.6


Road

Ult

ima

te

Su

mm

erh

ill

-

E6

Bo

un

da

ry -

E6

Cra

igie

bu

rn -

E6

Bo

un

da

ry &

Cra

igie

bu

rn –

E6

Ko

uk

ou

ra,

Su

mm

erh

il 4

lan

es

Ko

uk

ou

ra,

Su

mm

erh

ill,

Cra

igie

bu

rn 4

lan

es

No

Ra

il

Local roads 4% 2% 2% 2% 4% 4% 4% 4%

Summerhill Rd 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Boundary Rd 11% 0% 26% 0% 24% 12% 12% 11%

Craigieburn Rd 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Koukoura Dr 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 38% 38% 0%

Epping Rd 52% 42% 46% 47% 46% 52% 51% 54%

Total 8% 7% 9% 7% 9% 16% 16% 8%

Table 28 and Table 29 show the AM peak vehicle hours and the change compared to the reference case. There is

little difference between the scenarios, falling in a range of 66 hours (5% of the maximum).

Note that despite the time lost in congestion shown in Table 27 for Scenarios 5 and 6, total time spent in travel on

the Wollert network is expected to marginally fall, as shown in Table 29. This can be interpreted as the narrower

cross-section encouraging traffic to avoid the area of the modelled network.

Table 28 AM Peak Vehicle Hours Travelled (VHT) – Change from reference case


Road

Ult

ima

te

Su

mm

erh

ill

-

E6

Bo

un

da

ry -

E6

Cra

igie

bu

rn -

E6

Bo

un

da

ry &

Cra

igie

bu

rn –

E6

Ko

uk

ou

ra,

Su

mm

erh

il 4

lan

es

Ko

uk

ou

ra,

Su

mm

erh

ill,

Cra

igie

bu

rn 4

lan

es

No

Ra

il

Local roads 578 587 582 586 579 582 580 600

Summerhill Rd 63 77 54 49 52 60 60 64

Boundary Rd 137 112 154 118 141 133 135 143

Craigieburn Rd 193 179 169 230 196 191 192 201

Koukoura Dr 223 223 220 230 221 214 215 222

Epping Rd 148 203 184 191 164 157 155 151

Total 1,342 1,381 1,364 1,403 1,353 1,338 1,337 1,381

AECOM




42

Table 29 AM Peak Vehicle Hours Travelled (VHT) – Change from reference case


Road

Ult

ima

te

Su

mm

erh

ill

-

E6

Bo

un

da

ry -

E6

Cra

igie

bu

rn -

E6

Bo

un

da

ry &

Cra

igie

bu

rn –

E6

Ko

uk

ou

ra,

Su

mm

erh

il 4

lan

es

Ko

uk

ou

ra,

Su

mm

erh

ill,

Cra

igie

bu

rn 4

lan

es

No

Ra

il

Local roads 8 3 8 1 4 2 22

Summerhill Rd 14 -9 -14 -11 -4 -3 1

Boundary Rd -24 17 -19 4 -3 -2 6

Craigieburn Rd -14 -23 37 3 -1 -1 8

Koukoura Dr 0 -3 6 -2 -9 -8 -2

Epping Rd 55 36 43 16 9 7 3

Total 39 22 61 11 -4 -6 39

Table 30 shows the AM peak average speeds. There is little difference between the scenarios save that the

change in road cross-section results in a ten percent reduction in average speed from 60 to 54 kph on Koukoura

Drive. This is not expected to cause deterioration in travel speeds on other routes.

Table 30 AM Peak Average Speed (km/h)


Road

Ult

ima

te

Su

mm

erh

ill

-

E6

Bo

un

da

ry -

E6

Cra

igie

bu

rn -

E6

Bo

un

da

ry &

Cra

igie

bu

rn –

E6

Ko

uk

ou

ra,

Su

mm

erh

il 4

lan

es

Ko

uk

ou

ra,

Su

mm

erh

ill,

Cra

igie

bu

rn 4

lan

es

No

Ra

il

Local roads 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33

Summerhill Rd 63 63 63 63 63 62 62 63

Boundary Rd 43 43 42 43 43 43 43 43

Craigieburn Rd 62 62 62 62 62 62 61 62

Koukoura Dr 60 60 60 60 60 54 54 60

Epping Rd 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44

Total 45 45 45 45 45 44 44 45

AECOM




43

4.0 Intersection Analysis

4.1 Assumptions and Inputs

The intersection analysis was based upon a number of assumptions and inputs. The key assumptions are

discussed in the following sections.

4.1.1 Modelling Program

The intersection assessment was undertaken using SIDRA version 6.0.

It is acknowledged that results have been achieved at a micro-model level and each intersections performance is satisfactory. Assessing the precinct as a network, at a meso-model level, would display a more accurate depiction of the way intersection interact; linkage between cycle timing and of the affect individual intersection performances have on the surrounding network.

4.1.2 Intersections

The brief provided by Whittlesea City Council has included 32 intersections. However, in our proposal we have

indicated that there are 30 intersections to be assessed in the AM peak (Intersection #25 has been removed) and

10 intersections in the PM peak under one interim and one reference design years. Scenario 6 has been

requested by Council to be modelled under one ultimate design year, which will include assessment of 30

intersections in the AM peak (Intersection #25 has been removed) and 10 intersections in the PM peak.

Table 31 provides a summary of the intersections modelled in the interim and ultimate scenarios and have been

modelled in the peak hours. Intersections modelled for Scenario 6 are identified as the same as those modelled in

the ultimate scenario.

Intersections modelled in the PM peak hour have been discussed and selected by MPA and Whittlesea City

Council before commencing modelling.

For the interim road network, the following assumptions have been made:

1) Craigieburn Road – secondary arterial road

2) Epping Road – primary arterial road

3) Koukoura Drive – Council collector road

4) Summerhill Road – local Council road

5) Boundary Road – local Council road

Under interim and ultimate design years, the five above mentioned roads will be classified as Arterial Roads.

AECOM




44

Table 31 Intersections in the study area and intersections assessed for different scenarios and time periods

Int# Major Road Intersecting Road Interim Reference Notes

AM PM AM PM

1 Craigieburn Road / Lehmanns Road

Epping Road

2 Craigieburn Road Collector Road


4 Craigieburn Road Edgars Road

5 Craigieburn Road Koukoura Drive


7 Collector Road Epping Road


9 Boundary Road Epping Road



12 Summerhill Road Epping Road Does not exist in interim

13 Summerhill Road Bodycoats Road

14 Summerhill Road Collector Road

15 Summerhill Road Koukoura Drive

16 Collector Road Andrew Road Does not exist in interim

17 Collector Road Koukoura Drive



20 Boundary Road Koukoura Drive


22 Boundary Road Collector Road



25 Boundary Road Collector Road Does not exist

26 Boundary Road Andrew Road

27 Collector Road Collector Road





32 Collector Road Epping Road Does not exist in ultimate

AECOM




45

4.1.3 Traffic Volumes

Whittlesea City Council has provided data and information for the anticipated land uses, employment and road

hierarchy for future developments within Wollert Precinct Structure Plan. These data have been used to produce

the future traffic estimation for interim, reference and ultimate design years.

The peak hourly flow for SIDRA has been determined by adopting 55% of two hour strategic modelling traffic

volumes. As requested by MPA and Whittlesea City Council, only the traffic volume for light vehicles has been

modelled. An agreed percentage of heavy vehicles have been applied to the road network such as follows:

- 10% of total light vehicles on Epping Road applied on all approaches

- 6% of total light vehicles on all other roads applied on all approaches.

The assumptions for the number of pedestrians per hour in all directions are based on our previous experience for

East Werribee and Wyndham North PSP and similar projects, which has been agreed before commencing

intersection modelling. The following assumptions have been adopted:

- Within town centres and school areas (Intersection #1, 22, 23, 26, 28, 29 and 30):

50 pedestrians per peak hour in all directions (i.e. 200 pedestrians in total for a cross intersection)

- Outside of town centres and school areas (i.e. intersections that are not mentioned above):

20 pedestrians per peak hour in all directions (i.e. 80 pedestrians in total for a cross intersection)

When the total traffic volumes at intersections showing low or no volumes for some turn movements, manual

adjustments to the low or no turn movement volumes to the number of light vehicles (LV) will be undertaken:

- On an arterial road, a minimum total vehicle of 50 vehicles (total of LV and HV) be adopted. If the total

volumes less than 50 vehicles, an additional LV of up to 50 will be added to the turn movement to meet the

minimum total vehicles.

- On a collector road or on a collector road to an arterial road or an arterial road to a collector road, a

minimum total vehicle of 20 vehicles (total of LV and HV) be adopted. If the total volumes less than 20

vehicles, an additional LV of up to 20 will be added to the turn movement to meet the minimum total

vehicles.

- The number of heavy vehicles generally varies for different land uses and it is more challenging to identify

suitable percentage of HV on the road without proper planning. Therefore, no additional traffic volumes

have been made to the HV.

The following intersections have been manually adjusted:

a) AM Peak

- A minimum total vehicle of 50 vehicles:

Intersections #1, 5, 9, 12, 15 and 22


Intersections #4, 7, 8, 13, 22, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30 and 31.

a) PM Peak


Intersections #5, 9 and 15


Intersections #4 and 12

4.1.4 Cycle Times

A maximum cycle time of 120 seconds has been adopted. The cycle time for intersections has been adjusted to

have an overall Degree of Saturation (DOS) not more than 0.85.

AECOM




46

4.1.5 Road and Intersection Layouts

All the intersections will be signalised intersections. The number of lanes for approach roads has been modelled

as agreed and used in the strategic modelling.

An intersection layout assumption is as follows:

- Slip lanes are provided on:

At all arterial to arterial intersections

At arterial to connector intersections where there are more than 6 heavy vehicle (bus) turning

movements per hour. Please refer to the attached plan which identifies PTV’s current take on priority

bus routes (10 minute services) to determine this. Slip lanes will be long enough to allow buses to

overtake waiting through-traffic. A plan identifying PTV’s planned bus network (see Figure 10), will now

be Epping to Lockerbie running north-south, and Craigieburn to Mernda going east-west, rather than

the route going north through Aurora and heading west to Craigieburn.

Arterial to industrial connector intersections (10, 11, 12, 8, 7 (to the east only as residential land uses to

the west))

Note that slip lanes are not to be provided in the vicinity of town centres in order to provide for a more

pedestrian-friendly environment and in order to provide for a better overall urban design outcome.

Intersection 32, at the existing alignment of Summerhill Road and Epping Road, to the north of the PSP

boundary, is to be considered in the interim scenario, in place of Intersection 12, which will not be in the

interim network.

- For T-intersections, pedestrian crossings are provided on all approaches.

- The length of the auxiliary lanes has been determined by the 95th

percentile of queue lengths. A minimum

length of 65m and a maximum length of 150m have been adopted.

4.1.6 Signal Phasing

Fully controlled right turn is desirable and has been modelled for all intersections. However, if the DOS shows

more than 0.85, partial controlled right turn will be adopted. Intersections #1 is modelled with partial controlled

right turn.

4.1.7 Additional Traffic Volumes from Public Transport Data

Traffic generated by park and ride stations is calculated during the public transport assignment stage of VITM.

This traffic is loaded onto the highway network prior to assigning the traffic from the trip matrices, this ensures that

park and ride traffic is included in the calculation of network performance during the highway assignment.

However, as the park and ride traffic has been pre-loaded onto the network, we are unable to extract the turning

movements generated by park and ride traffic directly from the traffic assignment. Rather, the turning movements

generated by park and ride traffic needs to be added to the turning movements extracted from the highway

assignment by undertaking a manual inspection of the road volumes and deducing the turning movements from

the viewed volumes. This observation of park and ride volumes indicated that most of the additional park and ride

volumes on Epping Road and Koukoura Drive are not related to the park and ride in Wollert. This issue has been

identified during our review.

Tables below show the additional volumes to be added to the intersection models under interim and ultimate

design years.

AECOM




47

Table 32 AM Peak Additional Traffic Volumes from Public Transport Data

Int

# Approach Movement

Existing Add. PT

Vols. Proposed

Comment

Total LV HV Total Total LV HV

1

North Through 1037 933 104 237 1273 1170 104 This station

park and

ride is not

related to

Wollert

2 West Through 596 560 36 28 624 588 36

3 West Through 478 449 29 28 507 478 29

4 West Through 386 363 23 28 414 391 23

5 North Left Turn 123 117 6 28 129 123 6

7 North Through 1123 1011 112 226 1350 1237 112 This station

park and

ride is not

related to

Wollert

8 North Through 1078 970 108 226 1304 1196 108

9 East Left Turn 766 689 77 220 986 909 77

15 North Right Turn 301 283 18 242 543 525 18

18 North Through 1319 1240 79 39 1358 1279 79

19 North Through 1410 1325 85 39 1449 1364 85

20 North Through 1170 1100 70 39 1209 1139 70

South Right Turn 287 270 17 33 320 303 17

22 North Through 55 52 3 74 129 126 3

West Right Turn 151 142 9 84 235 226 9

23 East Left turn 266 250 16 95 361 345 16

South Right Turn 112 96 6 5 117 101 6

29 North Through 81 76 5 50 131 126 5

Table 33 PM Peak Additional Traffic Volumes from Public Transport Data

Int # Approach Movement Existing

Add. PT

Vols. Proposed

Total LV HV Total Total LV HV

15 West Left Turn 465 437 28 44 509 481 28

22 South Left Turn 231 217 14 55 286 272 28

Through 94 88 6 55 149 143 6

23 South Right Turn 0 0 0 66 94 94 0

4.2 Intersection Outputs and Operation

The analysis tested a number of different arrangements, including lane configurations and phasing options to

provide the best intersection performance.

An overview of the road network showing the degree of saturation for individual traffic movements has been

provided for each peak period (AM and PM peak).

AECOM




48

The overview includes the following colour coding for degree of saturation:

- <0.85 – green

- 0.85-0.95 – yellow

- 0.95-1.00 – orange

- >1.00 - red

Where the Degree of Saturation for the worst movement of the intersection was above 1, therefore above

capacity, alternate layout options were considered where practical.

In addition, AECOM has provided the following information for each individual site in:

- Intersection Layout Plan

- AM and PM peaks phasing summary

- AM and PM peaks movement and lane summary table

- Adjusted AM and PM peaks total traffic volumes (LV + HV) which summarises the volume input into SIDRA

- Original AM and PM peaks turning movement volumes for LV based on strategic modelling results

- Original AM and PM peaks turning movement volumes for HV based on strategic modelling results

- An overview Degree of Saturation (DOS) for the road network in the AM and PM peaks

The resultant performance of each movement for the tested intersections in the AM peak and PM peaks is

summarised in the following figures.

Full outputs for each intersection for the Interim Scenario are in Appendix A and the summary shown in Table 34.

For the Ultimate Scenario the full outputs for each intersection are shown in Appendix B and the summary shown

in Table 34.

Table 34 Summary of Intersection Outputs: Interim and Ultimate Scenarios (Reference Case)

Int # Interim Scenario Ultimate Scenario – Reference Case

1

AM: Leading Right phasing (120sec); DOS 0.78;

Short through lane provided for all approaches,

slip lanes provided on all legs for arterial priority

PM: Leading Right phasing (120sec); DOS 0.83;

Short through lane applied for all approaches,


AM: Variable phasing (110sec); DOS 0.75; Double

right turn provided for north and west approaches,


PM: Variable phasing (120sec); DOS 0.87; Double

right turn provided for north and west approaches,


2 AM: Split phasing (80sec); DOS 0.81

PM: Not applicable

AM: Split phasing (90sec); DOS 0.50

PM: Not applicable

3


Slip lane added to west approach for bus priority


Slip lane added to west approach for bus priority

AM: Leading Right phasing (90sec); DOS 0.62; Slip

lane provided for west approach for bus priority

PM: Leading Right phasing (90sec); DOS 0.78; Slip

lane provided for west approach for bus priority

4 AM: Leading Right phasing (80sec); DOS 0.67

PM: Leading Right phasing (80sec); DOS 0.72

AM: Leading Right phasing (90sec); DOS 0.43


5


Short through lane provided for east and south

bound


Short through lane provided for east and south

bound

AM: Split phasing (100sec); DOS 0.78; Slip lanes

provided for all approaches for arterial priority

PM: Split phasing (100sec); DOS 0.73; Slip lanes


6

AM: Variable phasing (100sec); DOS 0.77; Short

through lane provided for east and west bound

PM: Variable phasing (100sec); DOS 0.84; Short

through lane provided for east and west bound

AM: Variable phasing (100sec); DOS 0.82

PM: Variable phasing (110sec); DOS 0.78

AECOM




49


7


Short through lane for north and south bound,

slip lanes provided on north and east

approaches for arterial road priority and

industrial zone

PM: Not applicable


PM: Not applicable

8


through lanes provided on north and south

approaches, slip lanes provided on north and

south approach for arterial priority

PM: Not applicable

AM: Variable phasing (110sec); DOS 0.85;

PM: Not applicable

9


through lane provided for north, south and west

approach


Short through lane provided for north, south and

west approach

AM: Leading Right phasing (80sec); DOS 0.69; Slip

lane provided to all approaches for arterial priority,

double right turn provided for south approach, double

left turn for east approach

PM: Split phasing (100sec); DOS 0.83; Slip lane

provided to all approaches for arterial priority, double

right turn provided for south approach, double left

turn for east approach


PM: Not applicable

AM: Leading Right phasing (80sec); DOS 0.51

PM: Not applicable

11 AM: Variable phasing (80sec); DOS 0.45

PM: Not applicable


PM: Not applicable

12 Not applicable

AM: Variable phasing (90sec); DOS 0.63; Slip lanes

provided to all approaches for arterial priority

PM: Variable phasing (90sec); DOS 0.37; Slip lanes



PM: Not applicable


PM: Not applicable


PM: Not applicable


PM: Not applicable



AM: Split phasing (100sec); DOS 0.81; Slip lanes

provided on all approaches for arterial priority

PM: Split phasing (100sec); DOS 0.70; Slip lanes


16 Not applicable AM: Variable phasing (90sec); DOS 0.38

PM: Not applicable


PM: Not applicable


PM: Not applicable

18

AM: Variable phasing (70sec); DOS 0.36; Slip

lane added to north approach for bus priority

PM: Not applicable ed

AM: Variable phasing (100sec); DOS 0.82; Slip lane

added to north approach for bus priority

PM: Not applicable


PM: Not applicable


PM: Not applicable

20 AM: Split phasing (110sec); DOS 0.85

PM: Split phasing (110sec); DOS 0.82

AM: Split phasing (110sec); DOS 0.76

PM: Split phasing (100sec); DOS 0.72



AM: Variable phasing (110 sec); DOS 0.77

PM: Variable phasing (100 sec); DOS 0.79


PM: Not applicable


PM: Not applicable




PM: Not applicable

AECOM




50



PM: Not applicable


PM: Not applicable


PM: Intersection model not required


PM: Not applicable


PM: Not applicable


PM: Not applicable


PM: Intersection model not required


PM: Not applicable

29

AM: Variable phasing (70sec); DOS 0.19; Slip

lane added to south approach for bus priority

PM: Not applicable

AM: Variable phasing (70sec): DOS 0.46; Slip lane

provided on south approach for bus priority

PM: Not applicable


PM: Not applicable


PM: Not applicable


PM: Not applicable


PM: Not applicable


PM: Not applicable Not applicable

4.3 Scenario 6

Scenario 6 has been requested to be modelled in addition to the reference case. This is only applicable to the

Ultimate Scenario as the Interim Scenario does not change. This includes an assessment of 31 intersections in

the AM peak and 10 intersections in the PM peak.

The following intersections have been modelled in the peak hours under reference design year:

- AM Peak Hour (under interim, reference and ultimate design years)

30 intersections (Intersections #1 to 31 except #25 which has been removed)

- PM Peak Hour (under reference and ultimate design years)

10 intersections (Intersections #1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9, 12, 15, 20 and 21)

Table 35 Summary of Intersection Outputs: Ultimate Scenario – Scenario 6

Int # AM Peak PM Peak

1

Variable phasing (110sec); DOS 0.76; Double

right turn provided for north approach, slip

lanes provided on all legs for arterial priority

Variable phasing (120sec); DOS 0.92; Double right

turn provided for north approach, slip lanes provided

on all legs for arterial priority

2 Split phasing (80sec); DOS 0.65 Not applicable

3 Leading Right phasing (80sec); DOS 0.82; Slip

lane provided on west approach for bus priority

Leading Right phasing (100sec); DOS 0.73; Slip

lane provided on west approach for bus priority

4 Leading Right phasing (80sec); DOS 0.59 Leading Right phasing (90sec); DOS 0.76

5 Split phasing (120sec); DOS 0.78; Slip lanes


Split phasing (120sec); DOS 0.83; Slip lanes


6 Variable phasing (100sec); DOS 0.76 Variable phasing (120sec); DOS 0.84

7 Leading Right phasing (120sec); DOS 0.81; Not applicable

8 Variable phasing (120sec); DOS 0.80; Not applicable

9

Leading Right phasing (80sec); DOS 0.72; Slip

lane provided to all approaches for arterial

priority, double right turn provided for south

approach, double left turn provided on east

Leading Right phasing (94sec); DOS 0.84; Slip lane

provided to all approaches for arterial priority,

double right turn provided for south approach,

double left turn provided on east approach

AECOM




51

Int # AM Peak PM Peak

approach

10 Leading Right phasing (80sec); DOS 0.56 Not applicable

11 Variable phasing (80sec); DOS 0.41 Not applicable

12 Variable phasing (80sec); DOS 0.46; Slip lanes


Variable phasing (80sec); DOS 0.46; Slip lanes




15 Split phasing (100sec); DOS 0.71; Slip lanes


Split phasing (90sec); DOS 0.78; Slip lanes




18 Variable phasing (100sec); DOS 0.72; Slip lane

provided on north approach for bus priority Not applicable


20 Split phasing (110sec); DOS 0.84 Split phasing (110sec); DOS 0.84

21 Variable phasing (110 sec); DOS 0.78 Variable phasing (120 sec); DOS 0.80







29 Variable phasing (70sec): DOS 0.52; Slip lane

provided on south approach for bus priority Not applicable



AECOM




52

5.0 Summary and Conclusions

Theme 1: East-west connections to the E6 corridor

The modelling outputs show that compared to the reference case, all arrangements with fewer interchanges result

in increased vehicle travel and time in the network. Scenario 2 and 4, which feature an interchange at Boundary

Road, minimise this increase both in terms of time and distance.

Scenario 2 directs additional traffic along Boundary Road and results in some localised congestion. Scenario 4

does not have this concern as Epping Road provides the alternative access and the section with the additional

traffic performs well.

Conclusion: the least effective interchange in terms of marginal impact when removed is the Summerhill Road

interchange; Boundary Road interchange is the most effective and has the greatest impact if not provided. The

Craigieburn Road interchange assists in encouraging traffic to more directly access Craigieburn and the

employment lands on Craigieburn Road.

Theme 2: Arterial road design widths

The modelling results show that the Wollert PSP road transport network is not significantly adversely affected by a

reduction in road cross-sections for east-west traffic and the impacts of a reduction in Koukoura Drive cross-

section has primarily localised impacts on Koukoura Drive. These results can be primarily attributed to a reduced

volume of traffic entering and leaving the Wollert PSP area from the north. Reducing the arterial road width

reduces modelled travel by around 2,000 kilometres.

The results could be refined by considering whether the modelled speed limit would be affected by the changed

cross section. However the speed results presented in section 3.5 suggest this would not significantly affect the

findings.

Assessment of AustRoads Level of Service guidance (in section 3.5.3) indicates there is no significant change in

Level of Service by reducing the cross section from three lanes to two, with Koukoura Drive only marginally falling

into LOS B, which is reasonably unimpeded operation.

Conclusion: A three-lane cross section does not appear to be warranted on general vehicle traffic demand and

network performance grounds.

Other factors that could be considered in determining the ultimate cross-section for planning include:

- Whether road safety for all users would be improved with a particular cross-section

- Public transport priority needs, in particular whether strategic allocation of space is required to secure on-

road priority in the light of modelled congestion locations.

- Appropriate provision for overall network resilience in the event of disruptions on other trunk routes

Theme 3: No rail to Wollert

In the scenario where no rail is provided to Wollert, public transport’s effectiveness in its strongest market of travel

to the central city is significantly reduced. However, it still dominates mode share of the relatively small number of

trips that are to the central city in the AM peak.

Removing rail increases the amount of travel on the local road network. Removing rail increases travel by

1,586 km. However, because the increases are spread across the local road network, rail has no measurable

impact on kilometres travelled in congested conditions on the local network.

Conclusion: The no rail scenario has a small negative impact on the amount of car travel, but does not affect the

modelled performance of the road network.

5.1 Summary of intersection analysis

The aim for the intersection performance is to maintain DOS not more than 0.85 and a cycle not more than 120

seconds. All intersections except intersection number 1 (in the evening peak period) meet these criteria for both

the Reference and Scenario 6 Ultimate year. The DOS is still under 1.0 which indicates that the intersection is

AECOM




53

likely to cope with the traffic under either Reference or Scenario 6. This shows that the intersections can operate

efficiently with Koukoura Drive, Summerhill Road, Craigieburn Road being four lanes (Scenario 6).

There are a number of turning movements that have a LOS of E. The best outcome has been provided for each of

these intersections and the LOS given is due to the delay, not the queues. Given none of the delays are greater

than the cycle time; the majority are around 60 seconds and none greater than 72 seconds, this is deemed

acceptable.

Date post:	20-Jun-2020
Category:	Documents
Upload:	others
View:	4 times
Download:	0 times

Traffic Modelling and Intersection Analysis...2014/09/04 · AECOM Traffic Modelling and...

Documents