Applied Investment Management XXIII Ad i B d P t tiAdvisory Board Presentation
Discussion Materials04 December 2006
AgendaAgenda• Section 1: Portfolio Investment Objectives and Guidelines
• Section 2: Economic Environment
S i 3 S i A l i• Section 3: Security Analysis
• Section 4: Portfolio Performance Evaluation
• Section 5: Other Activates
S i 6 C l i• Section 6: Conclusion
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Portfolio Investment Objectives and GuidelinesSection 1
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Course OverviewPortfolio Investment Objectives and Guidelines
Course Overview
Actively engaged in hands-on portfolio management from the asset allocation decision to individual stock
l i d fi ll f li fselection and finally to portfolio performance evaluation
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Legacy PortfolioPortfolio Investment Objectives and Guidelines
Legacy Portfolio• Each stock in the portfolio is assigned to an analyst in
MMay
• Each class begins with updates on newsworthyEach class begins with updates on newsworthy company items
• Reports are delivered throughout the first half of the semester
• Portfolio decisions are held at semester’s end– Exceptions made in some cases
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p
Second StocksPortfolio Investment Objectives and Guidelines
Second Stocks• Analysts choose a stock that may be a good fit for the
f li di h i fportfolio according to their preference
• Analysts provide updates on newsworthy items for these companies in addition to first stock responsibilitiesresponsibilities
R t d t th d f O t b d d i• Reports are due at the end of October and during November
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Portfolio DecisionsPortfolio Investment Objectives and Guidelines
Portfolio Decisions• Analysts discuss the reasonableness of each other’s
i f h l ’ iassumptions after each analyst’s presentation
• Analysts make recommendations, and the class debates the merits of each stock
• Portfolio decisions consist of an up-or-down majority tvote
hi k l b 21 t
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• This process took place November 21st
Investment PhilosophyPortfolio Investment Objectives and Guidelines
Investment Philosophy• Portfolio is part of University’s endowment
– Fiduciary relationship– Prudent person rule
P i bj i• Primary objectives– Outperform S&P 500
Grow value of portfolio for future classes– Grow value of portfolio for future classes
• Long-term focus (3-5 years)• Constant monitoring of performance• Constant monitoring of performance
– Daily reports on company news
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Investment PhilosophyPortfolio Investment Objectives and Guidelines
Investment Philosophy• Investment universe
– U.S. equities– Traded on major exchanges
C i ’ l t li ith th f th U i it– Companies’ values must align with those of the University
• Portfolio construction• Portfolio construction– Benchmarks
• S&P 500 (Primary)S&P 500 (Primary)• Russell 2000 and Russell 1000 (Secondary)
– Sector weighting should approximate benchmark
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– No position may exceed 10% of portfolio
Additi l I f tiPortfolio Investment Objectives and Guidelines
Additional Information
W k i k W d f h• We are stock pickers• We are long-term
investors
• We do not focus on the value vs. growth decisioninvestors
• We are a long-only portfolio
• We are not day traders• We do not hold short
itip• We maintain a small
cash position
positions• We do not maintain
margin positionsmargin positions• We do not hedge• We do not trade ADRs
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Market Capitalization ProfilePortfolio Investment Objectives and Guidelines
• Target guideline allocations Market Capitalization Profile
– 65% Large Cap (>$5 billion in market capitalization)– 35% Middle ($1 to $5 billion) and Small Cap (<$1 billion)
+/ 10% boundary– +/– 10% boundary– Allocations at portfolio managers’ discretion
• Rationale– Offers opportunity to achieve diversification in the pp y
portfolio while maintaining an acceptable risk level
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Portfolio Investment Objectives and Guidelines
Market Capitalization ProfileAIM XXIII Portfolio as of 11/24/06
Market Capitalization ProfileAIM XXII Portfolio as of 4/24/06AIM XXI Portfolio as of 11/28/05
Mid and Small Cap
23%
Mid and Small Cap
46%
Mid and Small Cap
50%
Large Cap77%
Mid and Small Cap Stocks as of 11/24/06Cabelas
Large Cap54%
Mid and Small Cap Stocks as of 4/24/06Bluegreen
Large Cap50%
Mid and Small Cap Stocks as of 11/28/05AMCOL International Cabelas
Getty ImagesIxiaPetsmartSothebysTupperware Brands
BluegreenCiti TrendsHeadwatersIxiaInternational SpeedwayHeadwatersH Mill
AMCOL InternationalCheesecake FactoryCiti TrendsEdwards LifesciencesHeadwatersInternational SpeedwayI i Herman Miller
PetsmartQuiksilverSanderson FarmsStandard ParkingTupperware Brands
IxiaMulti Fineline ElectronicsPetsmartSanderson FarmsSpartan MotorsUnivision Communications
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Tupperware BrandsWebsense
Univision CommunicationsWaters Corporation
Economic EnvironmentSection 2
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E i R t O tliEconomic Environment
Economic Report Outline• Domestic economic analysis
C t l i F d l R iti i t t t– Central issue: Federal Reserve position on interest rates– Analysis of inflationary economic indicators
• Inflationary measures• Energy• Labor market
– Analysis of economic growthAnalysis of economic growth• Housing• Trade deficit/international influences
GDP• GDP
• Potential impact on portfolio
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I t t R t R t T dEconomic Environment
Interest Rates: Recent Trends• Fed Funds Rate: 5.25%
I fl tiFederal Funds Rate (Target)
– Inflationary pressures• 2 years of rate hikes
– Economic growth 4%
5%
6%
g– Housing market– Energy
0%
1%
2%
3%
• Economic uncertaintyInflationary pressures not yet in Fed’s comfort zone
0%1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Fed Meetings
– Inflationary pressures not yet in Fed s comfort zone– Future decisions based on incoming economic data
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Th F d’ T P i i I fl iEconomic Environment
The Fed’s Top Priority: Inflation“All members agreed that the risks to achieving the g ganticipated reduction in inflation remained of greatest
concern.”
Notes from Federal Reserve Board Committee On Open Market Operations Meetings of October 24-25, 2006.
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I fl ti MEconomic Environment
Inflation Measures• Inflation driven to PCE and Core CPI
2003-Present
“uncomfortably high” levels by higher
Energy prices 5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
ange
– Energy prices– Materials prices and
wagesSh lt t
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
YoY
% C
h
– Shelter costs
• Moderately offset
0.0%
Jan-03
Apr-03
Jul-03
Oct-03
Jan-04
Apr-04
Jul-04
Oct-04
Jan-05
Apr-05
Jul-05
Oct-05
Jan-06
Apr-06
Jul-06
Oct-06
PCE CORE CPIyrecently by falling energy prices
Source: St. Louis Fed
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I fl ti L di I di tEconomic Environment
Inflation: Leading Indicators
U it L b C t i i• Unit Labor Costs rising– Wages rising– Productivity laggingng
e
• Produces inflationary
oY %
Cha
n
pressure– May be moderated by
strong corporate profits
Yo
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I fl ti L b M k tEconomic Environment
Inflation: Labor Market• October unemployment: 4.4% - lowest level since May 2001
• Labor costs: Up 5.3% YoY – fastest increase in 16 yearsSource : Bureau of Labor Statistics
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• Productivity: Up 1.3% YoY – slowest growth since 1997
I fl ti L b M k t O tl kEconomic Environment
Inflation: Labor Market OutlookUnemployment– Expected to average out at 4.75% through 2007
L b d i iLabor productivity– Projected 2.0% increase YoY in 2007
Increase as workforce thins– Increase as workforce thins
Labor costsLabor costs– Increase at slower rate as unemployment rises towards
natural rate
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I fl ti EEconomic Environment
Inflation: EnergyOil
• Spike in spring/summer
• 20% decline since July 2006 peak
• Prices relatively flat YoY
• Eased geopoliticalfactors
• Positive weather
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I fl ti E (C t’d)Economic Environment
Inflation: Energy (Cont’d)Natural Gas
• 40% decrease from August to September 2006
• 50% increase from September to October of 2006
• Temperature sensitive
• Positive weather• Positive weather
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I fl ti E O tl kEconomic Environment
Natural Gas
Inflation: Energy OutlookOil
• Storage of inventories • Winter weather forecasts
• OPEC production- 1.2 million bbl/d cutback- Further cutbacks
i
• Non-OPEC countries production• Oil demand during heating season
• Estimates- Stay below $9 per million BTU- 20%-50% decrease YoY- Increases from 2006 to 2007
• Estimates- 2006: $61-$67 a barrel
- 5%-15% increase YoY- 2007: $62-$68 a barrel Increases from 2006 to 2007- 2007: $62-$68 a barrel
- Flat YoY
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I fl ti O tl kEconomic Environment
Inflation Outlook• Inflationary concerns will continue to drive Fed
monetary policy going forwardmonetary policy going forward
• Inflation expected to continue trending down towards a• Inflation expected to continue trending down towards a more “comfortable” level (2%)
• Decrease driven by– Moderate energy prices– Cooling labor market– Moderate economic growth
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E i G thEconomic Environment
Economic Growth• Slower economic growth may influence Fed decisions
i f dgoing forward
• Economic growth significantly influenced by– Housing market slowdown
C i– Consumption– International influences
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E i G th H iEconomic Environment
Economic Growth: Housing
• Aggressive price• Aggressive price-appreciation and higher mortgage interest rates decreased the affordabilitydecreased the affordability of housing
• Lower demand and large• Lower demand and large supply has put downward pressure on home prices
– Inventory build-upSource : National Realtors Association Inventory build-up– Cut back on residential
investment
Source : National Realtors Association
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E i G th H iEconomic Environment
Economic Growth: Housing
H i ’ t ib ti t• Housing’s contribution to economic growth peaked last year and is now subtracting from overall geconomic activity– Residential investment
reduced Q3 GDP growth by 1 1 ppgrowth by 1.1 pp
• Limited evidence of multiplier effects on consumer spending or aggregate employment
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E i G h H i O l kEconomic Environment
Economic Growth: Housing Outlook• First stage of correction is ending
• However,– Prices: Average Selling Price (ASP) will continue to fall – Demand: Stabilizing in response to lower mortgage rates and
lower priceslower prices– Supply: Builders will reduce construction
• Residential investment will reduce 1pp from GDP growth in 2007
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g
E i G th T d D fi itEconomic Environment
Economic Growth: Trade DeficitUnited States Trade Deficit (Annualized)
$2 500• Trade deficit still
$1 000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
Dol
lars
substantial• Trade deficit leveling
ff
$500
$0
$500
$1,000
Bill
ions
of D off
– Depreciating U.S. dollar
(539) (584) (650) (642) (643)(648)(621)-$1,000
-$500
Q1 2005 Q2 2005 Q3 2005 Q4 2005 Q1 2006 Q2 2006 Q3 2006
Exports Imports Balance of Payments
– Strong performance of exports
• Deficit less of a drag gon the economySource: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
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E i G th GDPEconomic Environment
Economic Growth: GDP• Economy has entered the transition phase in the expansionary cycle
GDPG
4%
6%
8%
Cha
nge
0%
2%
4%
Perc
enta
ge
• Q3 GDP 2.2%, down from 2.6% in Q2 and 5.6% in Q1
0%Q4
2002Q1
2003Q2
2003Q3
2003Q4
2003Q1
2004Q2
2004Q3
2004Q4
2004Q1
2005Q2
2005Q3
2005Q4
2005Q1
2006Q2
2006Q3
2006
Source: Department of Commerce
Q , Q Q– Interest sensitive consumer sectors and the housing correction drive
decreased expenditures– On the other hand a solid job market healthy capital expenditures and
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On the other hand, a solid job market, healthy capital expenditures and decline in unemployment signal strong economic fundamentals
E i G th GDP O tl kEconomic Environment
Economic Growth: GDP Outlook• Moderate economic expansion
– 2006E: 3.3% YoY– 2007E: 2.6% YoY
GDP
4%
6%
hang
e
2%
Perc
enta
ge C
h
0%Q1 2006 Q2 2006 Q3 2006 Q4 2006E Q1 2007E Q2 2007E Q3 2007E Q4 2007E
Source: Department of Commerce and Moody’s Estimates
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I t t R t O tl kEconomic Environment
Interest Rates: Outlook• Will Fed raise or lower interest rates?
– Inflation out of Fed’s comfort zone– Slowing economy
• Interest rate changesF d ill ti t l t h d– Fed will continue to leave rates unchanged
– Rate cut expected early to mid 2007• High interest rates force inflation to subside• High interest rates force inflation to subside• Lower rates boost a sluggish economy
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P tf li I tEconomic Environment
Portfolio Impact• Portfolio analyzed in light of economic forecast by sector
A l d h b i f f f d i bl• Analyzed on the basis of four forecasted variables– Moderate energy prices– Easing labor marketg– Housing market correction– Flat interest rates
• Impact on sector based on forecast– Positive– Neutral – Negative
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P tf li I t (C t’d)Economic Environment
Portfolio Impact (Cont’d)• Sector impacts
Consumer discretionary and consumer staples– Consumer discretionary and consumer staples
SectorModerate
Energy PricesEasing Labor
MarketHousing
CorrectionFlat Interest
RatesConsumer Discretionary
Coach, Tupperware, Cabela'sHigher unemployment and slower increases in wages drag sector
Moderate Easing Labor Housing Flat Interest Sector Energy Prices Market Correction RatesConsumer Staples
SyscoStaples remain resilient
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p
P tf li I t (C t’d)Economic Environment
Portfolio Impact (Cont’d)• Sector impacts
Healthcare and information technology– Healthcare and information technology
SectorModerate
Energy PricesEasing Labor
MarketHousing
CorrectionFlat Interest
RatesHealthcare
Medtronic, Amgen, Unitedhealth Group, Gilead SciencesMost income comes from 3rd party insurers
Moderate Easing Labor Housing Flat Interest Sector Energy Prices Market Correction RatesInformation Technology
Dell, Ixia, SymantecThe sector remains highly sensitive to the labor sector for future growth
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The sector remains highly sensitive to the labor sector for future growth
P tf li I t (C t’d)Economic Environment
Portfolio Impact (Cont’d)• Sector impacts
E d t i l– Energy and materials
SectorModerate
Energy PricesEasing Labor
MarketHousing
CorrectionFlat Interest
RatesEnergy
BJ Services, Exxon, XTOModerate energy price increases will positively benefit sector to offset labor costs
Moderate Easing Labor Housing Flat Interest Sector Energy Prices Market Correction RatesMaterials
Barrick Gold
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Gold acts as inflationary hedge
P tf li I t (C t’d)Economic Environment
Portfolio Impact (Cont’d)• Sector impacts
Financials– Financials
SectorModerate
Energy PricesEasing Labor
MarketHousing
CorrectionFlat Interest
RatesFinancialsFinancials
Citigroup, Moody's, Morgan Stanley, Western Union, McGraw HillIncreased productivity benefits sector while interest rate environment hurts sector
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Security AnalysisSection 3
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AIM Research ProcessSecurity Analysis
• Company background analysisI d l i
AIM Research Process
• Industry analysis• Fundamental analysis
Business and financial risk measures– Business and financial risk measures– Growth and DuPont analysis
• Earnings forecasts and beta estimationEarnings forecasts and beta estimation• Final valuation
– DCF– Multiples
• Technical analysis
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Citi Trends: OverviewSecurity Analysis
• Discount retailer of urban fashion apparel
Citi Trends: Overview
• Formed through reorganization of Allied Department Stores in 1999
• Refocused strategy: urban fashion market, value-pricing, and efficient store model266 i S h /Mid A l i• 266 stores in Southeast/Mid-Atlantic
• IPO May 2005• Market Capitalization: $555.62 M
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Citi Trends: Revenue ForecastSecurity Analysis
Citi Trends: Revenue Forecast
Projected Stores Comparable Store SalesProjected Stores
200250300350400
ro o
f Sto
res
p
10%
15%
20%
t Inc
reas
e
050
100150
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Year
Num
ber
0%
5%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Year
Perc
ent
Stores Linear (Stores)
Year
Comp Store Sales
• Revenue growth slows from 25% to 15% in five years
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Citi Trends: Continuing ValueSecurity Analysis
Citi Trends: Continuing ValueCV
NOPLAT $56,366g 7.00%ROIC 13.00%WACC 11 05%
All value in the CV
Slower growth in perpetuity
WACC 11.05%CV $642,346Discounted $342,498
Intrinsic ValueIntrinsic Value
Value of Operations $328,418Entity Value $373,793Debt Value $88,318Debt Value $88,318Equity Value $285,475Shrs. Outstanding 14,069Intrinsic Value $20.29Share Price $45.59
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Share Price $45.59
Citi Trends: ValuationSecurity Analysis
Citi Trends: Valuation
F C h Fl $20 29 67% $13 59
Analysis Value Weight Contribution to Weighted Average
Free Cash Flow $20.29 67% $13.59Price to Earnings 41.52 33 13.70 Total $27.30M k P i $45 59Market Price $45.59Downside 67.0%Recommendation SELL
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Western Union: OverviewSecurity Analysis
• Global leader in money transfer and consumer payments business
Western Union: Overview
business• Two primary business segments
– Consumer-to-consumer (C2C)C b i (C2B)– Consumer-to-business (C2B)
• TTM revenues of $4.4 Bn– C2C: 82%– C2B: 15%– Other 3%
• Market Cap - $16.5 Bnp $
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Western Union: Overview (cont’d)Security Analysis
• Spun-off from First Data in February 2006B t di O t b 2nd
Western Union: Overview (cont’d)
– Began trading October 2nd
• Largest footprint in a fast-growing, global industry– Over 270,000 agent locations in 200 countries/territoriesg– Global migrant population expected to grow rapidly– WU well positioned in major emigration countries
• India China Mexico and Philippines• India, China, Mexico, and Philippines
• Most recognizable and trusted name• Cash cow
– Operating margins above 30%– Low reinvestment needs
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Western Union: Free Cash FlowSecurity Analysis
Western Union: Free Cash Flow
(in millions) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Annuity CV
FCF: 849.95$ 1,080.26$ 1,318.69$ 1,425.50$ 1,659.17$ 13,377.03$ 48,112.55$
DCF (at WACC of 11 6%): 761 62$ 867 40$ 948 81$ 936 48$ 8 686 88$ 9 277 61$DCF (at WACC of 11.6%): 761.62$ 867.40$ 948.81$ 936.48$ 8,686.88$ 9,277.61$
Sum of DCF's: 21,478.80$ plus cash: 1,327.60$
Entity Value: 22,806.40$ minus Liabilities: 3,977.60$minus Liabilities: 3,977.60$
Equity Value: 19,306.80$ Shares Outstanding: 764
Intrinsic Value: 25.27$ per share
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Western Union: ValuationSecurity Analysis
Western Union: Valuation
Analysis Value Weight Contribution to Weighted Average
Free Cash Flow $25.27 100% $25.27Book Value (0.75) 0% - Total $25.27$Market Price $22.57Upside 12.0%Recommendation BUYRecommendation BUY
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Bluegreen Corp: Division AnalysisSecurity Analysis
• Communities division– 35% of revenues 44% profits
Bluegreen Corp: Division Analysis
– 35% of revenues, 44% profits– “Horizontal development”– 50-75 miles from cities
• Resorts division• Resorts division− 65% of revenues, 56% profits– 115,000 Vacation Club members– Global exchange network
• Market Capitalization: $421 M• Revenue (ttm): $621 M
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Bluegreen Corp: Industry AnalysisSecurity Analysis
• Timeshares
Bluegreen Corp: Industry Analysis
– Impressive growth over past 10-15 years– Growth fueled by entry of well-known
companiescompanies• Marriott, Hilton, Walt Disney
– Increasing competitiong p• Evidenced by increasing SG&A as %
of sales for Bluegreen
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Bl egreen Corp: Val ationSecurity Analysis
Bluegreen Corp: Valuation
Free Cash Flow $11.86 50% $5.93
Analysis Value Weight Contribution to Weighted Average
ee Cas ow $ .86 50% $5.93Price to Earnings 9.18 25% 2.30 Price to Sales 12.92 10% 1.29 Price to Book 12 13 10% 1 21Price to Book 12.13 10% 1.21 Book Value 10.83 5% 0.54 Total $11.27M k t P i $13 62Market Price $13.62Downside 20.9%Recommendation SELL
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Symantec: OverviewSecurity Analysis
• Computer storage and security products
Symantec: Overview
• Five business segments– Consumer products– Enterprise security– Data protection - VERITAS
Storage and server management VERITAS– Storage and server management - VERITAS– Services
• Market Cap - $20 Bn• Market Cap - $20 Bn
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Symantec: Overview (Cont’d)Security Analysis
• Strengths
Symantec: Overview (Cont’d)
– Strong management– Strong product base (especially Consumer AV Software)
St h fl f b i ti– Strong cash flows from subscription revenue
• ThreatsMicrosoft’s entry into AV Market– Microsoft s entry into AV Market
– Microsoft’s new Vista OS– Commoditization of AV Software?Commoditization of AV Software?– Inability to fully integrate Veritas
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Symantec: PE MultiplesSecurity Analysis
Currently Trading at:* 17x
Symantec: PE Multiples
y gPeers*
McAfee (MFE) 19xMicrosoft (MSFT) 20xSoftware Industry Average 22x
Historically 25x
20x FY07E $28 6020x FY07E $28.60
*Based on 2007 estimated earnings
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Based on 2007 estimated earnings
Symantec: ValuationSecurity Analysis
Symantec: Valuation
C t ib ti t
Free Cash Flow $26.11 55% $14.36
Analysis Value Weight Contribution to Weighted Average
Price to Earnings 28.60 25% 7.15 Price to Sales 24.16 10% 2.42 Price to Book 34 74 10% 3 47Price to Book 34.74 10% 3.47 Total $27.40Market Price $20.15Upside 36.0%Recommendation BUY
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Armor Holdings: OverviewSecurity Analysis
• Aerospace & Defense divisionA i d f t t t US Milit
Armor Holdings: Overview
– Armoring and safety systems to US Military– Sole provider of Armored Humvees
• Products division– Brand name safety and protective products to government agencies, law
enforcement, etc.
• Mobile Security division• Mobile Security division– Armored cars for heads of state, wealthy individuals, banks & money
services, etc.
• Market Cap: $1.98 Bn
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Security Analysis
Armor Holdings: Business MixArmor Holdings: Business Mix
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Armor Holdings: EPS ForecastSecurity Analysis
Armor Holdings: EPS Forecast
TTM 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011TTM 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Revenue Growth 23.0% 66.0% -10.0% -10.0% -8.0% -8.0%
Margins:Gross 21.0% 18.0% 20.0% 19.5% 19.5% 19.5%
Operating 13.2% 11.2% 13.2% 12.1% 11.7% 11.4%Net 9.3% 6.0% 7.4% 7.0% 6.9% 6.8%
• Armor relies heavily on US military action overseasDemocratic control of Congress
EPS $5.04 $5.26 $5.76 $4.84 $4.25 $3.83
– Democratic control of Congress– Expiration of Humvee Contracts
• Recent acquisition of Stewart & Stevenson
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Armor Holdings: ValuationSecurity Analysis
Armor Holdings: Valuation
Analysis Value Weight Contribution to
Free Cash Flow $54.41 60% $32.65Price to Earnings 63.18 40% 25.27 Total $57 92
Analysis Value WeightWeighted Average
Total $57.92Market Price $54.34Upside 6.6%Recommendation BUY
• Decision process– Desire to invest in companies with strong earnings growth
Recommendation BUY
Desire to invest in companies with strong earnings growth– Risk of inability to secure replacement contract
• Final decision
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– DO NOT BUY
Getty Images: OverviewSecurity Analysis
• World’s leading provider of imagery, film footage, and di i l i
Getty Images: Overview
digital services• Primary customers
– Advertising agencies, corporations, news companies
• 3 main lines of businessS k h h (80%)– Stock photography (80%)
– Editorial (15%)Film (5%)– Film (5%)
• Market Cap: $2.64 Bn
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Getty Images: SWOTSecurity Analysis
• StrengthsM k t l d d fi t
Getty Images: SWOT
– Market leader and first mover in the industry
– Business model– Website– Product offering (quantity and
quality)quality)• Weaknesses
– Revenues tied to a cyclical yindustry
– Exposed to exchange rate fluctuations
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fluctuations
Getty Images: SWOT (Cont’d)Security Analysis
• Opportunities
Getty Images: SWOT (Cont’d)
– International markets– Video advertising
N b it– New website
• ThreatsCompetition from Corbis– Competition from Corbis and Jupitermedia
– Downturn in the advertising industry
– Strengthening dollar
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Getty Images: DuPont AnalysisSecurity Analysis
Getty Images: DuPont Analysis
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 TTMNet Margin
-27.4 -34.9 -21.1 4.6 12.2 17.1 20.4 20.2Margin
TAT 0.26 0.44 0.45 0.45 0.43 0.43 0.44 0.49Leverage 1.28 1.62 1.67 1.54 1.46 1.36 1.34 1.36
ROE -9.1% -24.8% -15.9% 3.2% 7.7% 10.0% 12.0% 13.5%
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Getty Images: ValuationSecurity Analysis
Getty Images: Valuation
Contribution to
P/E $56.71 10% $5.67P i t S l 66 79 10% 6 68
Analysis Value Weight Contribution to Weighted Average
Price to Sales 66.79 10% 6.68 Price to EBIT 64.45 10% 6.45 Price to EBITDA 59.35 10% 5.94 Free Cash Flow 50.79 60% 30.47 Total $55.21Market Price $44.33Market Price $44.33Upside 19.7%Recommendation BUY
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Build A Bear Workshops: OverviewSecurity Analysis
• The conceptB ild t ff d i l t il
Build-A-Bear Workshops: Overview
– Build-your-own stuffed animal retailer– Niche market player in experiential retail space
• Cash flow driversCash flow drivers– Incremental sales in new stores– Franchise fees and royalties on international locations
• Capital structure– $656 million market capitalization
N di i l l d b– No traditional long term debt– Significant operating leases
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Build A Bear: Fundamental AnalysisSecurity Analysis
Build-A-Bear: Fundamental Analysis
Du Pont Components
• Leverage swing attributable to 2004
u o Co po e s
12
14
%
1.2
1.4
IPO• Drastic slowing/
l f fit6
8
10
12
age
& N
PM %
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
apita
l T/O
reversal of profit margin and turnover growth 0
2
4
Lev
era
0
0.2
0.4
Ca
2002 2003 2004 2005 TTM
Leverage NPM Capital T/O
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Build A Bear: Fundamental Analysis (Cont’d)Security Analysis
Change In Same Store Sales
Build-A-Bear: Fundamental Analysis (Cont’d)
Compared to Same Quarter in Previous Year
25%
30%
15%
20%
25%
ge
0%
5%
10%
Cha
ng
-10%
-5%
1Q04 2Q04 3Q04 4Q04 1Q05 2Q05 3Q05 4Q05 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06
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Build A Bear: ValuationSecurity Analysis
Build-A-Bear: Valuation
Free Cash Flow $28 53 70% $19 97
Analysis Value Weight Contribution to Weighted Average
Free Cash Flow $28.53 70% $19.97Price to Earnings 28.28 15% 4.24 Price to Book 31.11 15% 4.67 T t l $28 88Total $28.88Market Price $29.43Downside 1.9%Recommendation DO NOT BUY
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Gilead Sciences: OverviewSecurity Analysis
Gilead Sciences: Overview• World-leader in HIV retroviral treatments
– Principal source of sales revenue (77%)
• Large cash reserves used to purchase royalty interests• Large cash reserves used to purchase royalty interests owned by third parties and for acquisitions
– Acquired Myogen, Inc. for $2.5 Bn (cash) in 4th quarter of 2006Acquired Myogen, Inc. for $2.5 Bn (cash) in 4th quarter of 2006 to expand into the cardiovascular disease arena
• HIV products sold at-cost in 97 developing countries
AIM XXIII Advisory Board PresentationAIM XXIII Advisory Board Presentation 68
Gilead Sciences: BackgroundSecurity Analysis
• Major HIV products
Gilead Sciences: BackgroundSales Breakdown by Product
– Truvada: Fixed-dose combination of Viread and Emtriva (once-a-day)At i l St d l th
10.31%
0.37%0.07%
– Atripla: Stand-alone therapy combining Truvada and Bristol-Meyers’ Sustiva (July 2006) 43.04%
2.62%
12.20%
• Growing royalty revenue from Roche’s sales of Tamiflu
– Continued orders for pandemicContinued orders for pandemic readiness (globally)
31.38%
Viread Truvada Emtriva
AmBisome Hepsera Vistide
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DaunoXome
Security Analysis
Gilead Sciences: Market AnalysisGilead Sciences: Market Analysis• High unmet need
16% d i A i– 16% covered in Asia– 13% in Eastern Europe and
Central Asia
50
Milli
on
Estimated Number of People living with HIV Globally
– 12% in the Caribbean
30
40M
0
10
20
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1986 1992 1996 20060
1988 1990 1994 20021998 2000 2004
Gilead Sciences: Market (Cont’d)Security Analysis
Gilead Sciences: Market (Cont’d)
10 000
12,000Estimated Total Annual Resources Available for HIV/AIDS
(N li d)• AIDS to become the 3rd
leading cause of death
6,000
8,000
10,000
S $
milli
on
Signing of Declaration of Commitment on
HIV/AIDS
leading cause of death worldwide
I d h l d
0
2,000
4,000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
U• Increased awareness has led to reforms for its prevention and treatment
2,500
3,000
3,500 Gilead Sales and Net Income
2,500
3,000
3,500• Funds and need have led to
sharp increase in sales
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
US
$ m
illion
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
US
$ m
illion
• Revenues for 2005 represented a 53% increase
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01996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 E2006
Sales Net Income
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006-500
0E
represented a 53% increase from 2004
Security Analysis
Gilead Sciences: Technical AnalysisGilead Sciences: Technical Analysis
Moving Averages (50 d(50 day vs. 200 day)
5 Year Chart5-Year Chart
Bearish
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Bullish
Gilead Sciences: ValuationSecurity Analysis
Gilead Sciences: Valuation
Free Cash Flow $73.74 75.0% $55.30
Analysis Value Weight Contribution to Weighted Average
Free Cash Flow $73.74 75.0% $55.30Price to Earnings 64.30 15.0% 9.64 Price to EBIT 80.52 2.5% 2.01 Price to Sales 70 11 2 5% 1 75Price to Sales 70.11 2.5% 1.75 Price to Book 79.85 5.0% 3.99 Total $72.71Market Price $67.86Upside 7.1%Recommendation BUY
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Recommendation BUY
Portfolio Performance EvaluationSection 4
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E al ation ApproachPortfolio Performance Evaluation
Evaluation Approach• In comparison to S&P 500 (benchmark)
S t ll ti– Sector allocations– Absolute performance– Risk
• Beta• Standard deviation
– Risk-adjusted performance• Sharpe ratio• Alpha
– Attribution analysisy
• Focus on risk-adjusted performance• Look at long-term returns
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Market Capitali ation Breakdo nPortfolio Performance Evaluation
Market Capitalization Breakdown
Portfolio Portfolio
7754%65%> $5 Billi
23%46%35%< $5 Billion
Percentage (As of 11/15)
Percentage (As of 05/15)
Portfolio TargetsMarket Capitalization
%Market Cap Breakdown
100%100%100%Total
77%54%65%> $5 Billion
%05/15 Market Capitalization
BreakdownCurrent Market Capitalization
Breakdown23%
46% 54%
77%
AIM XXIII Advisory Board PresentationAIM XXIII Advisory Board Presentation 76
AIM Portfolio vs BenchmarkPortfolio Performance Evaluation
AIM Portfolio vs. Benchmark(As of 11/27/06)
P/E Div Yield EPS Growth Debt/Equity
S&P 500 16.61 1.82% 19.32% 1.17
AIM Portfolio 17 58 0 90% 29 04% 1 13AIM Portfolio 17.58 0.90% 29.04% 1.13Source: Mellon
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AIM P tf li P f S&P 500Portfolio Performance Evaluation
AIM Portfolio Performance vs. S&P 500(As of 10/31/06)
16%
18%
15.41%14.16%
8%
10%
12%
14%
11.22%
9.46%
13.16%14.16%
9.46%
7.77%
2%
4%
6%
8%
5.39%
Since Inception5 Year3 Year1 Year
0%
A S& 00
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AIM S&P 500Source: Mellon
D ll G th AIM P tf li S&P 500Portfolio Performance Evaluation
Dollar Growth: AIM Portfolio vs. S&P 500(As of 10/31/06)
$4.00$3 8
$3.00
$3.50$3.78
$2.00
$2.50$2.22
$1.00
$1.50
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
AIM S&P 500Source: Mellon
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Risk Adjusted PerformancePortfolio Performance Evaluation
Risk Adjusted Performance
Sh R ti S( ) (R R ) / StdD ( )• Sharpe Ratio: S(p) = (Rp - Rf ) / StdDev(p) – Measures our portfolio’s return over the risk-free rate per
unit of risk, as defined by its standard deviationunit of risk, as defined by its standard deviation
• Alpha: R = Rf + β x ( R - Rf ) + αAlpha: Rp Rf + β x ( Rm Rf ) + α– Measures our portfolio’s return in excess of expected returns
adjusted for our portfolio’s risk
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Ri k Adj t d P f Sh R tiPortfolio Performance Evaluation
Risk-Adjusted Performance: Sharpe Ratio(As of 10/31/06)
0.43
0.52
0.5
0.6
0.43
0.28
0 18
0.340.29
0.3
0.4
0.18
0.02
0.15
0
0.1
0.2
0
1 Year 3 Years 5 Years Since Inception
AIM S&P 500
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Source: Mellon
Ri k Adj t d P f Al hPortfolio Performance Evaluation
Risk-Adjusted Performance: Alpha(As of 10/31/06)
3.934.9
456
0.35
0123
-1.5-2-10
1 Year 3 Years 5 Years Since Inception
Source: Mellon
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Portfolio Performance Evaluation
AIM Portfolio Return vs S&P 500(As of 10/31/06)
AIM Portfolio Return vs. S&P 500
1 Year 3 Years 5 YearsSince
InceptionC l i 84 86 93 91Correlation .84 .86 .93 .91Beta 1.30 1.28 1.14 1.21
Source: MellonSource: Mellon
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P f Att ib tiPortfolio Performance Evaluation
Performance Attribution(As of 10/31/06)
2.02% 1.95%
1.5%2.0%
2.5%
0.07%
-0.18%
0.46% 0.42%
0 5%0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
Benc
hmar
k
-0.44%0.18%
-1.00%
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
% O
ver
B
-2.33%-3.0%
-2.5%2.0%
1 Year 3 Year 5 Year
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Allocation Selection InteractionSource: Mellon
P tf li S t All tiPortfolio Performance Evaluation
Portfolio Sector Allocation(As of 11/15/06)
AIM XXIII Advisory Board PresentationAIM XXIII Advisory Board Presentation 85
Source: Mellon
Portfolio vs S&P 500Portfolio Performance Evaluation
Portfolio vs. S&P 500 (As of 11/15/06)
40 40
30
35
io 20
30
15
20
25
%of
Tot
al P
orto
fi
10
% R
eturn
5
10
%
-10
0
0Financials Healthcare Utilities Discretionary Staples Energy Information
TechMaterials Telecom Industrials
-20
Portfolio Weight Target Weight Target Return Portfolio Return
AIM XXIII Advisory Board PresentationAIM XXIII Advisory Board Presentation 86
Source: Mellon
I di id l St k R tPortfolio Performance Evaluation
Individual Stock Returns
Top 5 Individual Performers(As of 11/28/06)
Top 5 Individual Performers
Stock Return (TTM or *HPR)( )
Morgan Stanley (MS) 35.4%
Exxon Mobil (XOM) 27.1%( )
McDonalds Corp. (MCD) 22.0%
PetSmart Inc (PETM) 19 5%PetSmart Inc. (PETM) 19.5%
Coach Inc. (COH) 17.9%*
AIM XXIII Advisory Board PresentationAIM XXIII Advisory Board Presentation 87
Source: Mellon and CapitalIQ
I di id l St k R t (C t’d)Portfolio Performance Evaluation
Individual Stock Returns (Cont’d)
B tt 5 I di id l P f
(As of 11/28/06)
Bottom 5 Individual Performers
Stock Return (TTM or *HPR)Stock Return (TTM or *HPR)
Ixia (XXIA) (29.1%)
United Health Group Inc. (UNH) (21.2%)p ( ) ( )
Dell Inc. (DELL) (11.4%)
BJ Services Co. (BJS) (10.4%)
Tupperware Brands Corp. (TUP) (5.1%)*
Source: Mellon and CapitalIQ
AIM XXIII Advisory Board PresentationAIM XXIII Advisory Board Presentation 88
P tf li T tiPortfolio Performance Evaluation
Portfolio TransactionsSells Buys Increases
Standard Parking Sotheby’s PetSmartStandard Parking Sotheby s PetSmartBluegreen Cabela’sCitiTrends Getty ImagesSanderson FarmsHeadwaters
SMALL CAP HeadwatersWebsenseQuiksilverInt'l SpeedwayHerman Miller
<$5bil
Herman MillerAnnheuser-Busch Whirlpool Barrick Gold
XTO Energy UnitedHealthGilead Sci. DellM G Hill
LARGE CAP $5bil
Source: Mellon
McGraw HillSymantecWestern Union
>$5bil
AIM XXIII Advisory Board PresentationAIM XXIII Advisory Board Presentation 89
Portfolio Performance Evaluation
Portfolio Performance S mmar
• Short Term
Portfolio Performance Summary
Short Term– Performance gap narrowing– Increasing beta, decreasing alphag g p
• Long Term– Outperform benchmark (S&P 500) on year-over-year returns– Outperform benchmark on risk-adjusted basis– Positive alpha
AIM XXIII Advisory Board PresentationAIM XXIII Advisory Board Presentation 90
Other ActivitiesSection 5
AIM XXIII Advisory Board PresentationAIM XXIII Advisory Board Presentation 91
T iOther Activities
• Chicago – Early SeptemberTrips
– William Blair & Company (Investment Bank)• Case study on Cabela’s IPO
Th E iti (R l E t t I t t Fi )– Thor Equities (Real Estate Investment Firm)• Tour of the Palmer House• Learned about real estate investment approachLearned about real estate investment approach
– Madison Dearborn Partners (Private Equity) • Emphasis on examining R&D when analyzing a p g y g
company– Alliance Capital (Asset Management Firm)
AIM XXIII Advisory Board PresentationAIM XXIII Advisory Board Presentation 92
• Received insights on potential stocks
T i (C t’d)Other Activities
• New York – Mid NovemberTrips (Cont’d)
– S-Squared Technology (Hedge Fund)• Exclusively technology and life sciences
F t k t it h Gil d• Focus on stock opportunity such as Gilead – Nasdaq (Public Exchange)
• Largest U S electronic stock marketLargest U.S. electronic stock market• Discussed aggressive growth strategies
– Mason Capital Management (Hedge Fund)p g ( g )• Learned about investment strategies
AIM XXIII Advisory Board PresentationAIM XXIII Advisory Board Presentation 93
T i (C t’d)Other Activities
• New York – Mid NovemberTrips (Cont’d)
– Sterling Stamos (Hedge Fund)• Investment company with a broader mandate
I i ht di f t i t t t fl t ti• Insight regarding future interest rate fluctuations– The Blackstone Group (Private Equity)
• Investment side / advisory sideInvestment side / advisory side• Stressed the importance of meeting with and assessing
management when valuing a company– Goldman Sachs (Investment Bank)
• Asset and private wealth management
AIM XXIII Advisory Board PresentationAIM XXIII Advisory Board Presentation 94
S kOther Activities
• Sankaty Advisors (Hedge Fund)Di t d d bt d tibl b d fi
Speakers
– Distressed debt and convertible bond firm– Fundamental analysis
• Todd Martin (Investment Firm)Partner, Martin Capital Management– Emphasized presence of overconfidence bias– Discussed various people that can aid investment process
• Company management• Company management• Company employees• Competitors
AIM XXIII Advisory Board PresentationAIM XXIII Advisory Board Presentation 95
• Suppliers
N l ttOther Activities
• ObjectivesNewsletter
– Allow AIM alumni to stay up-to-date – Provide quarterly overview of present portfolio
• Current newsletter points of interestNew stocks and new portfolio– New stocks and new portfolio
– AIM alumni updates– New York trip reviewNew York trip review– Economic snapshots– AIM XXIII analysts’ future plans
AIM XXIII Advisory Board PresentationAIM XXIII Advisory Board Presentation 96
AIM W b itOther Activities
• Website addresshtt // i d d
AIM Website
– http://aim.nd.edu• E-Mail address
aim@nd edu– [email protected]• Specific areas of interest
– Analysts and alumniy– Publications– Portfolio– News
AIM XXIII Advisory Board PresentationAIM XXIII Advisory Board Presentation 97
Section 6Conclusions
Special ThanksConclusions
Special Thanks
The AIM Advisory BoardThe AIM Advisory BoardIncluding those who could not make the trip
AIM XXIII Advisory Board PresentationAIM XXIII Advisory Board Presentation 99
Conclusions
Special Thanks (Cont’d)• The Notre Dame Investment Office
Special Thanks (Cont’d)
• AIM Professors– Jerry Langleyy g y– Scott Malpass– Frank ReillyFrank Reilly– Ed Trubac
• Also to Rachel Karnafel for her supporting ff t
AIM XXIII Advisory Board PresentationAIM XXIII Advisory Board Presentation 100
efforts
Cl i R kConclusions
Closing Remarks
Please join us for dinner at the Morris Inn!Please join us for dinner at the Morris Inn!
AIM XXIII Advisory Board PresentationAIM XXIII Advisory Board Presentation 101