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Higher education global trends
and emerging opportunities
Global Education Dialogues
São Paulo
29 October 2013
Claudio Anjos
Director Education and Society
British Council Brazil
The shape of things to come
Research series:
Developed by the British Council during
2011-2012 to analyse the emerging trends
for international higher education and
opportunities until 2020.
Part 1: Developed by the British Council
during 2008-2010 to analyse the emerging
trends for HE opportunities to 2020
Research Aim:
- future shape of the tertiary education sector
- growing internationalisation
- teaching and research.
This study focuses on trends and econometric analysis
What is changing until 2020?
1. Analysis of macroeconomic and demographic data suggests a significant
slow down in the growth of tertiary education enrolments.
2. The above directly affects the mobility of international students – much lower
growth is projected to 2020
3. Continued transnational education growth, determined by quality, student
experience and responding to demand in niche subject areas
4. Increasing importance of international collaborations in the production of
quality research
5. Implications for Brazil higher education institutions
Unfavourable demographics
1. Drivers of Higher education demand
• Demographic (population growth)
• Macroeconomic drivers (GDP HE enrolment ratio)
• Countries’ national policies on international education and legal
frameworks
• % of 18-22 y.o. enrolled in HE courses
2. Tertiary education enrolments globally - 170 million in
2009:
• 160% growth since 1990
• Average annual growth of 5-6% per year in previous decades
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
2002=100
China
India
Russia
Brazil
South Korea
Germany
US
Tertiary age (18-22) population
Source: UN Population Division, Oxford Economics
Forecast
As the graphic shows, many
of the most populous
countries have ageing
demographics. Consequently
there will be slower tertiary
enrolment growth of 1.4%
per year till 2020 compared to
5-6% growth per year in
previous decades.
Growth (absolute) will come
from:
• India (7.1m)
• China (5.1m)
• Brazil (2.6m)
• Indonesia (2.3m)
• Nigeria (1.4m)
Global tertiary
enrolments, student
mobility, global GDP
and trade (1980-2009)
OUTBOUND MOBILITY
UK outbound mobility will increase to 38,000 students by 2020
Global mobile students growth (2011-20)
Brazil outbound mobility will increase to 47.000 students by 2020 (*) with ratio of 0.40% of Brazilian mobile students.
(*) number do not consider the Science Without Borders programme. Forecasts are policy neutral.
Global mobile students in 2020 growth by destination country
Projected growth in
inbound mobility
Forecasts are policy
neutral
INBOUND MOBILITY
Transnational education (TNE)
1. Growth in TNE programmes – especially in East countries: CH, ML and UAE
2. Shift from capacity building (quantity) to tight quality assurance
3. TNE is increasingly contributing to host countries’ national priorities
4. Trend of ‘partnership-led’ model –improving the quality of domestic HE system
5. More research-led universities are engaging in TNE
6. TNE is a significant part of HEIs’ internationalisation strategies
7. Fast response to demand in niche subject areas (business, management, engineering)
8. Very ambitious international student recruitment targets by TNE providers:
500,000 international students by 2020 in China;
150,000 international students by 2015 in Singapore;
200,000 international students by 2020 in Malaysia.
Transnational education (TNE)
International research collaborations
1. Top research nations have more than doubled their international collaborations in 2010 compared to 10 years ago. If the trend continues China would match the US in terms of international collaborations
2. Countries that engage more in international collaboration produce research that are more highly cited
3. Three international collaboration groups: • Volume leaders: US, UK, Germany, France, Italy, China,
Japan
• High citation impact: Switzerland, US, Netherlands, UK,
Sweden
• Emerging countries with growing importance: China,
Malaysia, India, Brazil, Saudi Arabia
International Research Collaboration
Source: Scopus 2012
Implications for Brazil
1. International student mobility
• Brazil will have one of the largest HE systems in the world (around 9.2 million enrolments), dominating global growth with India, Indonesia, Nigeria and China
• Research shows an increase on mobility to 47.000 students by 2020 – however keeping a low ratio of 0.40% of Brazilians abroad (not considering SwB).
2. TNE:
• Relevance of Joint/double degrees, however with strong legislative restrictions
3. International collaborations:
• Attractive country for international partnership – growing focus on quality rather than on quantity
Reports available at
http://www.britishcouncil.org/education/higher-education
Claudio Anjos
Thank you!