Aquecimento global e desenvolvimento sustentável
Philip M. FearnsidepInstituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia – INPA
http://philip.inpa.gov.br2nd International Workshop: Advances in Cleaner Production - Key elements for a sustainable world: material, energy and climate change, 22 de maio de 2009, Universidade Paulista, São Paulo.
Siple coreSiple core
O balanço global de energia hojeO balanço global de energia hoje
Temp model and dataTemp model and data
Figure SPM 4Figure SPM.4
IPCC, 2007 (AR-4 WG1 SPM)
Goldilocks and the three bears
IPCC, 2007 (AR-4 WG1 SPM)
IPCC, 2007 (AR-4 WG1 SPM)
Changes in vegetation biomassbetween the present day and the 2080s
–8 –5 –3 –1 1 3 5 8–8 –5 –3 –1 1 3 5 8kgC/m2kgC/m2
[Hadley Centre, 2000]
Cândido et al., 2007
IPCC AR4 WG2 2007. Chapter 3
IPCC 2007 AR-4, WG-I, p. 779
Cox et al. 2004
Photo by R.I. Barbosa
Cox et al. 2004
Stainforth,2005
ADAPTED FROM HEGERL ET AL., NATURE (2006)
Betts et al. 2004 Theoretical and Applied Climatology
Huntingford et al. 2004 Theoretical and Applied Climatology
Length of dry season
Legend:Number of dry months
Non TF areas
0 - 1
1 - 2
2 - 3
3 - 4
4 - 5
5 +
500
Kilometersi 500
KilometersiDerived from the New et al 2001 dataset
Impact of El Nino
Legend:Multivariate ENSO index
-0.4 - -0.3
0 3 0 2-0.3 - -0.2
-0.2 - -0.1
-0.1 - 0
Non TF areas
0 - 0.2
550i 500
KilometersiKilometersi Kilometersi
Malhi and Wright 2004 Spatial patterns and recent trends in the climate of tropical forestregions. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society
The model suggests ggthat 2005 was an approximately 1-in-20-approximately 1 in 20yr event but willyr event, but will become a 1-in-2-yrbecome a 1 in 2 yr event by 2025 and a 9-event by 2025 and a 9-in 10 yr event by 2060in-10-yr event by 2060.
10km10km
Fotos: Richard Bierregaard
Damage and mortality of trees (%/yr)Damage and mortality of trees (%/yr)
4< 0.001
3.14
4.5
3
3.5
/ano
)
3
3.5
4 Y = 3.64 - 0.75 log XR=0.51, P=0.0002
/yea
r)
2
2.5 1.6
nos
(%/
2
2.5
3
ality
(%/
1
1.5
2
xa d
e da
1.5
2
Mor
ta
0
0.5
1
Tax
0.5
1
100 10000
< 300 m > 300 m Distance to edge (m)
Nascimento and Laurance, 2004 Ecol. Appl.;
Experimentos de exclusão de chuvas – simulando el niños de longa duração – Projetos LBA/ESECAFLOR e LBA/SECA FLORESTA
Painéis Suportes
Calhas Drenos
Redução de 50-60% da precipitaçãop p ç
Foley et al. 2007 Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment
IPCC, 2007 AR4 WG1 Ch. 10 p. 775
Cox et al. 2004 Theoretical and Applied Climatology
IPCC AR4 WG2 2007. SPM
A ll t l 2002Cli ti ChArnell et al. 2002Climatic Change
Meinhausen, 2005
IPCC, 2007 (AR-4 WG1 SPM)
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