Arab PopulationIn Judea, Samaria & Gaza

The Million Person Gap

PCBS Projection2004 Population 3.8 Million

Bennett Zimmerman & Roberta Seid, Ph.D.Copyright 2005 All Rights Reserved

Fewer Births

Net Negative Migration

Jerusalem Arab Population

Residents Living Abroad

Study Result2004 Population 2.5 Million

The American-IsraelDemographic Research

Group(AIDRG)

USA Research TeamBennett ZimmermanRoberta Seid, Ph.D.Michael Wise, Ph.D.

Israel Research TeamYoram Ettinger

Brig. Gen (Ret.) David ShahafProf. Ezra SoharDr. David PassigAvraham ShvoutYakov Faitelson

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

Millions of People

Source: ICBS, Final Assessments of Population in Judea, Samaria & Gaza, 1996, Julia Zemel, December 22, 1997; Palestine Central Bureau of Statistics, Demographic Indicators of the Palestinian Terrtory, 1997 - 2015

1995 2005

2.0

4.0

Israeli and Palestinian Population EstimatesJudea, Samaria and Gaza

(1995 & 2005)

Israel CentralBureau of Statistics

(ICBS)

Palestine CentralBureau of Statistics

(PCBS)

• PCBS 2004 population total for Judea & Samaria and Gaza was 4.0 million, 100% above the ICBS 1995 figure of 2.0 million.

• Such growth would indicate a compound annual growth rate over 7% per annum, twice as high as the four leading countries in the world, Afghanistan, Somalia, Niger and Eritrea.

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

‘97 2000 2005 2010 2015

Millions of People

Arab Population in Judea&Samaria and Gaza1997 PCBS Census and Projection

(1997 - 2015)

Source: Palestine Central Bureau of Statistics, Demographic Indicators of the Palestinian Terrtory, 1997 - 2015

When 2004 PCBS population estimate (3.8 million) is combined with Israeli Arab population (1.3 million), the number of Arabs is now – supposedly - almost equal to the number of Jews west of the Jordan River. Given this rapid Arab growth, Israeli Jews would rapidly – supposedly - become a minority.

5.0

6.0• The Palestine Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS) forecast was the basis for future population reports

• 1997 Population: 2.78 Million 2015 Population: 5.81 Million

• Mid-Year 2004 Population reaches 3,827,914

• 1997 – 2004 Annual Growth Rate of 4.7% (Highest in the World)

Population measurement requires accurate recording and verification of:

Beginning Base Population + Births - Deaths

+ Immigration - Emigration = Ending Base Population

Study investigated the 1997 PCBS Projection, factor by factor, against data released each year by PA and Israeli governmental agencies.

Arab PopulationIn Judea, Samaria & Gaza

The Million Person Gap

Methodology

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0

Millions of People

Examination of the base population data(1996 – Mid-Year 1997)

December1996

PA Ministry ofHealth

2.270 Million

June1997

PCBS 1997 Census(PCBS Mid-Year 1997)

2.783 Million

2.111 Million

December1996

ICBS Report

24K Half-Year Growth

210K Jerusalem Arabs

325K Residents Abroad

113K Additional Increase648K Total excess over ICBS

Before Census Census Era

“We counted 325,000 people living outside of the Palestinian

lands for more than one year, who carry Palestinian ID cards and can return at any time. This number is a minimum, and is not precise because we could not contact all the families living abroad.”

Hassan Abu LibdahHead of PCBSNews Conference held at Al-Birah“The First Results of the Census”

February 26, 1998

Palestine Central Bureau of Statistics Census CoverageInclusion of Residents Living Abroad

Census CoverageA comprehensive population enumeration always depends on the essence and the nature of the census. In general, population

censuses cover all persons residing within the limits of a certain country, at a specific time. A population census is based on the following:

1. De-facto Approach: Based on the enumeration of individuals according to their existence in the area of enumeration at census moment, regardless of their usual place of residence.

2. De-jure Approach: Based on the enumeration of individuals according to their usual place of residence, regardless of their presence at the census moment.

For the first ever Palestinian census, the de-facto approach was adopted with some exceptions. The census count included the following categories:

A – The Categories underwent complete data collection.1. All persons present in the Palestinian territories on the census reference date, irrespective of nationality, purpose of stay and

place of residence in the Palestinian territories.2. All temporarily living abroad (for one year prior to the night of the reference date) and who have a usual place of residence

in the Palestinian territories. Those persons are enumerated as parts of their households.

3. All Palestinians studying abroad irrespective of the study period and the period of stay abroad along with all Palestinian detainees in the Israeli jails regardless of the detention period.

B – Palestinian abroad: Categories underwent data collection on their numbers and sex only This category includes Palestinians who live abroad for more than one year and who have a usual place of residence in the Palestinian territories and have identity cards (except for students and detainees enumerated in the previous category) irrespective of the purpose of stay abroad.

http://www.pcbs.org/phc_97/phc_covr.aspx

Palestine Central Bureau of Statistics Census CoverageInclusion of Residents Living Abroad

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0ICBS 1996+ 8 Years

Less deaths and emigration

CEC October 2004 Voting Report • 1.3 Million Eligible Voters Resident in Territories

• 200K Eligible Voters Abroad

87%Resident

13%Abroad

1.5 M

1.3M

1.85M

1.3M1.3M

PCBS Forecast(2004)

Millions of PeoplePA Central Election Commission (CEC)

Eligible Adult Voters Match ICBS Population RecordsOctober 2004 & January 2005 Voting Reports

The October 2004 CEC Voting Report, with specific information on 1.3 million adults living in the Territories, undermines the original 1997 PA Projection and confirms that the 1997 Census Base included Palestinians living abroad. The residential base measured by the ICBS in the mid-1990s produces an exact match with the 1.3 million residents found on current CEC voter rolls.

“Adults expected to be 18 and above by 2004”

120

80

40

Births/YearPCBS 1997 Projection

vs. Births recorded by PA Ministry of Health

160

2003200220012000199919981997199619950

= PCBS 1997 Projection

= PA Ministry of Health

Thousands of Births/Year

PCBS birth projections were based on an inflated population base.

Since 2000, 40,000 annual projected births were never realized

120

80

40

Births/YearBirths recorded by PA Ministry of Health

confirmed by PA Ministry of Education Records

160

2003200220012000199919981997199619950

= PCBS 1997 Projection

= PA Ministry of Health

Thousands of Births/Year

PA Ministry Of Education

1st Grade Students6 Years Later

(2003) (2004)

About 95% of 6 year old children register to first grade.

The level of births recorded by the PA Ministry of Health is reaffirmed by school records, maintained by the PA Ministry of Education for first graders.

120

80

40

160

200320022001200019991998199719961994/5

0

Net Entries(Exits)In Thousands/Year

Immigration/YearPCBS 1997 Projection

PCBS population projections included an assumption of 50,000 net immigration annually, beginning 2001.The eruption of Intifadah II in Sept. 2000 has precluded net immigration, but Israel’s Demographic establishment never examined the PCBS and was unaware of its assumptions.

120

80

40

160

Net Entries (Exits)In Thousands/Year

200320022001200019991998199719961995

0

= PCBS 1997 Projection

= Actual Israel Border Data

19941993199219911990

Immigration/YearPCBS 1997 Projection

vs. Actual Israel Border Data

The PCBS built in assumptions of mass immigration into the West Bank and Gaza. By 2001, immigration was forecast to exceed 50,000 persons per annum.

Actual border data showed net emigration of 10-20,000 persons each year since 1997.Therefore, the PCBS began to include 60-70,000 persons each year that were not present.

Post Gulf War I: +25K Post Oslo I

Migration to IsraelOfficially Counted Only

1993 - 2003

From 1993 – 2003, over 150,000 residents of Judea & Samaria and Gaza received Israeli IDs and settled in pre-1967 Israel and Jerusalem under family reunification programs. The portion

since 1997 totals approximately 105,000 persons. (Source: November 2003 Israel Ministry of Interior Report.)

These figures do not address either:a) Unofficial immigrants who have moved over the ‘green-line’ into Israelb) Jerusalem residents with Israeli IDs who have moved back from Judea & Samaria into Israeli controlled Jerusalem.

Study ResultsYear by Year Detail

Population models should be transparent with clearly defined starting, intermediate and ending points, so that researchers can assess the data, factor by factor. Many current estimates use information released by the PCBS to build population forecasts.

Millions of People

4.0

3.5

3.0

PCBS Projection: 3.83 Million Total2.42 Million J&S1.41 Million Gaza

2.5

2.0

PA MOH Births Difference: 238K

Birth Alterations Difference: 70K

“The 1.34 MillionPerson Gap”

Deaths Difference: 33K

Immigration &Emigration Error Difference: 310K

Migration to Israel Difference: 105K

Jerusalem Arabs Difference: 210K

ResidentsLiving Abroad Difference: 325K

Jump Over ICBS Difference: 113K

Study Results: 2.49 Million Total1.41 Million J&S1.08 Million Gaza

}Errors in PCBS Projection

The Million Person Gap(By Mid-Year 2004)

Population BreakdownIsrael, the West Bank, and Gaza

(Begin Year 2004)

JewsJewsJews

West BankArabs

IsraeliArabsGaza

Arabs

IsraeliArabs

West BankArabs

IsraeliArabs

Israel

81% Jewish

4:1 Jewish/Arab Ratio

Israel& J&S

67% Jewish

2:1 Jewish/Arab RatioSince the 1960s

IsraelJ&S

and Gaza

59% Jewish

3:2 Jewish/Arab Ratio

Jewish Affiliated

Judea & SamariaTrend of Population Growth

(1950-2004)

1950 1960 1970

Jordanian Period ’52-61 (20) (33)

-- Low Growth 0.9% Rate -- Steady Emigration

Early Israeli Period ’67-’85 -- Medium Growth 1.8% -- Health Improvements

Post-Oslo Period ’00–‘04 -- Low Medium Growth 1.8% -- Hostilities -- Declining Birthrates -- Steady Emigration

1980 1990 2000

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%• Life Expectancy Up• Infant Mortality Down

-- Steady Emigration

Late Israeli Period ’85-’95 -- High Growth 3.5% -- Economic Growth -- Some Years of Immigration

Oslo Period ’95-’00 -- Medium Growth 2.2% -- Declining Birthrates -- Steady Emigration --Family Planning --Expanded Education --From rural to poor urban

Growth rates in J&S are experiencing the normal stages of population development

Growth rates for J&S are approaching levels of a developed Western societyand trend toward Israeli Jews growth rates.

Annual Population Growth Rates

In USA:Mr. Bennett ZimmermanPh: 310-617-4180E-mail: ben@aidrg.com

Arab PopulationIn the West Bank & Gaza

The Million Person Gap

Contact Information

Arab Population in the West Bank and Gaza: The Million Person Gap was presented at the January 2006 Herzliya Conference. The Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies published the Study in February 2006. The original study can be found at www.aidrg.com

The authors of this study have completed a companion piece, “Forecast for Israel and West Bank 2025,” which will be introduced at the 6th Herzliya Conference on January 23 2006. 

10

Total Fertility RateBirths/Woman

8

6

4

2

0

Total Fertility Rates (TFR)“Green Line” Jews and Moslems

1960 – 2004

Source: Israel Central Bureau of Statistics

Forecasts for Israel have been consistently wrong because they apply yesterday’s highfertility rates to tomorrow’s forecast despite long-term decline in Israel Arab fertility.

9.23

1960/1964

3.39

8.47

1965/1969

3.36

1970/1974

3.28

1975/1979

3.00

5.54

1980/1984

2.80

4.70

1985/1989

2.79

4.67

1990/1994

2.62

4.67

1995/1999

2.62

4.36

2004

2.71

Jews Moslems

7.25

9.22

5

Total Fertility RateBirths/Woman

4

3

2

1

0

Total Fertility Rates (TFR)“Green Line” Jews and Arabs

2000 - 2004

Israeli Jewish Fertility rates, the highest in the industrialized world, have stabilized and evenstarted to rise across the board in all sectors (Orthodox, secular, and Olim from USSR). After plateauing from 1985 – 2000, Israeli Arab fertility rates have been steadily falling.

2006 – 3.6 Arab TFR and 2.75 Jewish TFR. From a 6 children gap Arab-Jewish TFR gap in the 1960s to 0.8 gap in 2006.

2000 2002 2003

Jews Arabs

2004

2.71

4.404.22

4. 004.17

2.732.642.66

100

Thousands of Births

80

60

40

20

0

Demographic Momentum in the “Green Line”Jewish Births vs. Arab Births

1995 - 2005

Source: Israel Central Bureau of Statistics

Since 1995 annual Jewish births, in Israel, have increased by 36% (to 109.183 in

2006), while Arab births have trended downward at 38,653 in 2006. Jewish births accounted to 69% in 1995 and 74% in 2006, trending upward.

80.4

1995

Jews Arabs

1996

36.5

85.6

35.8

1997

88.3

36.2

1998

91.3

38.8

1999

92.6

39.4

2000

95.6

40.8

2001

95.2

41.4

2002

98.6

40.9

2003

103.6

41.3

2004

104.4

40.9

105.2

38.8

2005

Children per Family

8

6

4

2

0

“Gallup” Survey on Ideal Family SizeConvergence in Fertility Intentions

Source: Gallup News Service, “Attitudes Toward Family Size Among Palestinians and Israelis”, Lydia Saad, March 17 2006

Desired family size is now the same for Israeli Jews and Israeli Arabs

Young West Bank Arabs desire a family size only one-half a child higher than young Israelis

IsraelJews

What is the ideal number of children in a family?

3.06

3.73

IsraelArabs

4.52

West Bank Arabs

3.683.88

5.26

3.593.68 3.853.52

4.55 4.40 4.17

5.07

Ort

hod

ox

Tra

dit

ion

al

Sec

ula

r

50+

30-4

9

20-2

9

15-1

9

50+

30-4

9

20-2

9

15-1

9

“Gallup” Survey on Ideal Family SizeConvergence in Fertility Intentions

“There is not a large difference [in fertility intentions] in a region where fertility could be a potent political tool. . . The possibility that the once burgeoning Palestinian Arab population in Israel, the West Bank, and the Gaza Strip will eventually be the majority in that region has been widely accepted as a looming threat to Israel. . . However the assumption that Palestinians will eventually out-number the Jewish population in the region has come under recent criticism.

“The recent Gallup data is instructive because there is clearly an element of personal choice in having children, and thus Gallup finds strong evidence that people’s preferred family size has a strong bearing on actual fertility rates. Gallup has been measuring American’s notion of ideal number of children since 1936, the trend lines for preferred number of children and the U.S. are quite parallel.

“Gallup finds no difference in preferred number of children by age in Israel, but does among [younger] Palestinians.

“Gallup” Comments

-- Lydia Saad, “Attitudes Toward Family Size Among Palestinians and Israelis”, Gallup News Service, March 17 2006

Fertility Assumptions in ICBS Forecast for Israel: JewsIsrael’s Official Forecast

(2000 - 2025)

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

2000 - 05 2021 - 25

2.6 2.6

2.4

2.1

Total Fertility Rates

The ICBS assumed Jewish fertility rates (births expected per woman) would decrease from2.6 in 2000 to 2.4 in 2025.

Net Immigration was expected to drop from 10,000/year to 7,000/year in the high caseand 4,000/year to -2,000 emigration in the low case

High Scenario

Medium Scenario

Low Scenario

Actual Fertility vs. Assumptions in ICBS Forecast for Israel: Jews (2000 - 2004)

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

2000 - 05 2021 - 25

2.6 2.6

2.4

2.1

Actuals2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2.66 2.64 2.73 2.71 2.77 2.75

Actual fertility rates for the Jewish sector were higher - annually - than the highest rates Considered by the ICBS in its forecast.

Total Fertility Rates

Fertility Assumptions in ICBS Forecast for Israel: Israel MoslemsIsrael’s Official Forecast

(2000 - 2025)

3.8

2.1

The ICBS assumed Moslem fertility rates (births expected per woman) would remainstable at 4.7 in the high case scenario and gradually drop to 2.6 in the low case scenario

No immigration or emigration scenarios were considered for the sector

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

2000 - 05 2021 - 25

2.6

4.50

4.74.7

Total Fertility Rates

High Case Scenario

Medium Case Scenario

Low Case Scenario

Actuals vs. Assumptions in ICBS Forecast for Israel: Israel Moslems (2000 - 2004)

3.8

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

2000 - 05 2021 - 25

2.6

4.50

4.74.7

Total Fertility Rates

Actuals

2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006Moslems 1,090 83% 4.74 4.58 4.50 4.36Christians 116 9% 2.55 2.29 2.31 2.13Druze 112 8% 3.07 2.77 2.85 2.66

Total Arab 1,318 4.40 4.22 4.17 4.02 3.9 3.6

Moslem

Total Arab

Actual fertility rates for Moslems (especially) and for Arabs were decreasing 20 years faster than ICBS projections.