Arctic Climates and Arctic Climates and Environments: The 1ACE Environments: The 1ACE Project Project 1ACE aims to understand natural and 1ACE aims to understand natural and anthropogenic changes in the biosphere anthropogenic changes in the biosphere and climate of the Arctic and northern and climate of the Arctic and northern circumpolar regions, using a combination circumpolar regions, using a combination of modelling tools and observations of modelling tools and observations that that draws on expertise, data, equipment and draws on expertise, data, equipment and infrastructure uniquely available at the WUN nodes infrastructure uniquely available at the WUN nodes . .
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Arctic Climates and Arctic Climates and Environments: The 1ACE Environments: The 1ACE
ProjectProject
1ACE aims to understand natural and 1ACE aims to understand natural and anthropogenic changes in the biosphere and anthropogenic changes in the biosphere and climate of the Arctic and northern circumpolar climate of the Arctic and northern circumpolar regions, using a combination of modelling regions, using a combination of modelling tools and observations tools and observations that draws on that draws on expertise, data, equipment and infrastructure expertise, data, equipment and infrastructure uniquely available at the WUN nodesuniquely available at the WUN nodes..
Why focus on the Arctic ?Why focus on the Arctic ? uniquelyuniquely exposed to climate change because of exposed to climate change because of
powerful positive feedbacks between sea-surface powerful positive feedbacks between sea-surface conditions, ecosystems and the atmosphere. conditions, ecosystems and the atmosphere. Only in the Arctic is it possible to examine all the Only in the Arctic is it possible to examine all the factors involved in determining climate changefactors involved in determining climate change
Why focus on the Arctic ?Why focus on the Arctic ?
Has experienced Has experienced large and rapid large and rapid changes in the changes in the recent geological recent geological past (e.g. past (e.g. vegetation change)vegetation change)
Why another Arctic initiative?Why another Arctic initiative?
IPY: International Polar YearIPY: International Polar Year AC: Arctic CouncilAC: Arctic Council ISAC: International Arctic Science CommitteeISAC: International Arctic Science Committee FARO: Forum of Arctic Research OperationsFARO: Forum of Arctic Research Operations AOSB: Arctic Ocean Science BoardAOSB: Arctic Ocean Science Board ACSYS: Arctic Climate System StudyACSYS: Arctic Climate System Study CLiC: Climate and Cryosphere ProjectCLiC: Climate and Cryosphere Project ICARP: International Conference for Arctic Research PlanningICARP: International Conference for Arctic Research Planning ACIA: Arctic Climate Impacts Assessment (AC + ISAC)ACIA: Arctic Climate Impacts Assessment (AC + ISAC) SEARCH: Study of Environmental Arctic ChangeSEARCH: Study of Environmental Arctic Change GLOBEC-ESSAS: Global Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics-Ecosystem Studies of Sun-Arctic SeasGLOBEC-ESSAS: Global Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics-Ecosystem Studies of Sun-Arctic Seas CLIVAR- :Climate Variability and PredictabilityCLIVAR- :Climate Variability and Predictability AINA: Arctic Institute of North AmericaAINA: Arctic Institute of North America BEST: Bering Ecosystem StudyBEST: Bering Ecosystem Study CEON: Circum-arctic Environmental Observatories NetworkCEON: Circum-arctic Environmental Observatories Network ARCSSARCSS ARCSS-HARC: Human Dimensions of the Arctic SystemARCSS-HARC: Human Dimensions of the Arctic System ARCTIC-CHAMP: Pan-Arctic Community-wide Hydrological Analysis and Monitoring Program ARCTIC-CHAMP: Pan-Arctic Community-wide Hydrological Analysis and Monitoring Program ASOF: Arctic/Sub-arctic Ocean Fluxes programmeASOF: Arctic/Sub-arctic Ocean Fluxes programme
• Existing organisations either set agendas internationally or fund nationally –there are no frameworks to support a coherent international research programme
• Substantive progress in understanding the complex interelated climate systems active in the Arctic will require a breadth and depth of resources not present in a single country let alone a single university
•Geographical and historical interests mean that expertise, data and infrastructure is distributed across many countries
What distinguishes 1ACE ?What distinguishes 1ACE ?
Not a programme or agenda-setting Not a programme or agenda-setting initiative → definite & concrete research initiative → definite & concrete research project demanding interactionsproject demanding interactions
Not limited involvement activity → Multi-Not limited involvement activity → Multi-national (particularly linking US-Europe-national (particularly linking US-Europe-China, but with remit to involve the best)China, but with remit to involve the best)
Expertise → together the WUN nodes Expertise → together the WUN nodes have the critical mass to carry out such a have the critical mass to carry out such a project → synergy project → synergy
1ACE Strategy1ACE Strategy coherent coherent multi- and inter-disciplinary multi- and inter-disciplinary
programmes programmes based in centres of excellencebased in centres of excellence Use IT mediated approaches to support Use IT mediated approaches to support
sustained collaboration sustained collaboration at a distanceat a distance Linking Linking interdisciplinary interdisciplinary academic academic
communities communities across across themes themes within within foci foci Particular benefits from bringing Particular benefits from bringing modellers modellers
and observationalists and observationalists togethertogether Bring together Bring together disparate information & disparate information &
resources resources located in many countrieslocated in many countries incorporate incorporate modern processmodern process understanding understanding test in the test in the past past before applying to the before applying to the futurefuture
Modelling prioritiescloudssea icesnow-veg interactionsPFTsevapotranspirationfire and emissionswetlandssulphur cycleland hydrology
Simulationshistorical periodpalaeofuture
GOAL: Alternative futures and impacts
GOAL: Understanding recent climate and environmental changes
↓
↓
→ ←
↓
Modern observationsprocess studies distribution maps time-series of key surface and atmosphere variablesflux measurements
Arctic Climates and Environments
Improving modelling capability.
The ultimate goal of this stream is to produce a fully-coupled earth system model which simulates all the key biogeochemical cycles. In order to improve our ability to simulate high-latitude climates, there are a number of areas which should be prioritised. These include:
CloudsDynamic sea-iceSnow-vegetation interactionsTesting simulated evapotranspiration against flux measurementsBetter representation of plant functional types (PFTs) in vegetation dynamicsFire and fire-related emissionsIncorporation of wetland PFTs and simulation of wetland extent and dynamicsTerrestrial emissions of trace gases & aerosolsCloud-chemistry interactionsSulphur cycle and production of DMSImprovement of land hydrology, both with respect to linkages with vegetation and land-ocean transfers of water and sediment
Observations of the Modern Environment
Modern observations are required for two purposes, (a) guiding the development of model parameterisations and (b) model testing. In some cases, the requisite data could be obtained through remote-sensing. In other cases, information from individual field studies is required and, despite the wealth of data being collected, efforts will be required to synthesise these data.
The main priorities for modern data collection are:
Maps of vegetation, wetland extent, permafrost extent and fire incidence/extent based on remote-sensingTime-series of key surface and atmospheric variablesSynthesis/analysis of existing flux measurements (including CO2 and CH4) from the arctic/boreal zoneProcess studies for key components, including sea-ice processes, marine boundary layer chemistry (including arctic haze), snowpack biophysics and biochemistry, controls on gas emissions from wetlands, arctic physiology, arctic ecology (including refugia and migration issues)
Organisational structureOrganisational structure
Foci = research area that (potentially) cuts across Foci = research area that (potentially) cuts across streamsstreams
Within each focus, we will identify more specific Within each focus, we will identify more specific research topicsresearch topics
Two types of research topic: Fast Track Initiative and Two types of research topic: Fast Track Initiative and Medium Track InitiativeMedium Track Initiative
FTI = concrete results achievable within 2-3 years FTI = concrete results achievable within 2-3 years (proof of concept that this collaboraion yields (proof of concept that this collaboraion yields results)results)
MTI = research expected to advance the science MTI = research expected to advance the science over 3-10 yr frameworkover 3-10 yr framework
Each focus, each FTI and each MIT will have a Each focus, each FTI and each MIT will have a coordinator, who will be responsible for developmentcoordinator, who will be responsible for development
Modern observations Modelling Palaeo-observations
STREAMS
Climate-chemistry interactions
Climates and Environments of Deep Time
ESModelling of the Arctic
Climate-cryosphere interactions
Land-ocean interactions
Climate-biosphere interactions
FOCI
Characteristics of an FTI, Characteristics of an FTI, MTIMTI
Fundamental challenge in Arctic scienceFundamental challenge in Arctic science Can be addressed by pooling resources and Can be addressed by pooling resources and
expertise across >2-3 WUN nodesexpertise across >2-3 WUN nodes Will ultimately integrate with other 1ACE Will ultimately integrate with other 1ACE
initiatives to form a coherent pictureinitiatives to form a coherent picture Can identify a willing and enthusiastic Can identify a willing and enthusiastic
coordinator who will take the lead in coordinator who will take the lead in planning the science and funding activitiesplanning the science and funding activities
Proposed MTI: development of Proposed MTI: development of biospheric emissions schemes for biospheric emissions schemes for coupling with atmospheric chemistry coupling with atmospheric chemistry modelsmodels
Proposed MTI: LGM methane drawdownProposed MTI: LGM methane drawdown(also feeds into palaeo-focus)(also feeds into palaeo-focus)
Proposed FTI: palaeovegetation changes Proposed FTI: palaeovegetation changes through last glacial-interglacial cyclethrough last glacial-interglacial cycle
(this also feeds into ESModelling through validation)(this also feeds into ESModelling through validation)
Proposed MTI: improved treatment of Proposed MTI: improved treatment of snow-covered vegetation in DGVMs/ESMssnow-covered vegetation in DGVMs/ESMs
FTI: Palaeovegetation changes through the last glacial-interglacial cycle Madison
Jack WilliamsPollen data, ENA
External partnerWyoming
(Steve Jackson)Macrofossils, NAm
UtrechtAndy LotterPollen data, EPD
External partnerUSGS (Thompson)Macrofossils, NAm
Other WUN nodes
Modern observations Modelling Palaeo-observations
STREAMS
Climate-chemistry interactionsWuebbles
Climates & Environments of Deep TimeBrinkhuis
ESModelling of the Arctic
Climate-cryosphere interactions
Land-ocean interactions
Climate-biosphere interactions
FOCI
Snow Emissions
Valdes
PalaeovegEdwards
OxygenKeeling
MTI: snow-veg feedback
MTI: dynamics & feedbacks
Biospheric emissionsPrentice
LGM drawdownHarrison
MTI: freshwater & THC
Sheffiled lead ??
MTI:Coastal ocean
IMPPayne
Ice cap sensitivity (AICA)Wadham
PalaeohosingSchlesinger
Steered by: Callaghan
MTI:Deeptime maps Francis
How are we making this How are we making this happen ?happen ?
Jan-April: Jan-April: ACCESS grid orACCESS grid or video-conferencesvideo-conferences on FTI & on FTI & MTIMTI
WebsiteWebsite to collate resources and provide virtual to collate resources and provide virtual working environmentworking environment
Seedcorn money being sought now for FTI activitiesSeedcorn money being sought now for FTI activities Kick-off meetingKick-off meeting in May 2005 in May 2005 Use ofUse of WUN GEP programme WUN GEP programme for faculty/student for faculty/student
exchangeexchange Dialogue with funders – Dialogue with funders – public, foundation and public, foundation and
corporatecorporate Begin to Begin to raise profile raise profile through internal and external through internal and external
publicitypublicity
Planned virtual meetingsPlanned virtual meetings
Thursday 6th JanuaryThursday 6th January Mace Head FTIMace Head FTI Thursday 13th JanuaryThursday 13th January Snow emissions FTISnow emissions FTI Tuesday 1st FebruaryTuesday 1st February Planning Committee for Kick-off Planning Committee for Kick-off
MeetingMeeting Tuesday 8th FebruaryTuesday 8th February Palaeovegetation FTIPalaeovegetation FTI Thursday 10th FebruaryThursday 10th February Focus on Climate-chemistry Focus on Climate-chemistry
interactionsinteractions Thursday 24th FebruaryThursday 24th February Focus on DeeptimeFocus on Deeptime Thursday 10th MarchThursday 10th March Palaeohosing MTIPalaeohosing MTI Thursday 17th MarchThursday 17th March Focus on climate-biosphere Focus on climate-biosphere
interactionsinteractions Thursday 31st MarchThursday 31st March Focus on climate-cryosphere Focus on climate-cryosphere
interactionsinteractions Thursday 14th AprilThursday 14th April Focus on land-ocean interactionsFocus on land-ocean interactions Thursday 21st AprilThursday 21st April Focus on Earth System modelingFocus on Earth System modeling Thursday 28th AprilThursday 28th April Planning Committee for Kick-off Planning Committee for Kick-off
