Arrangements and procedures to assess security risks and national defence requirements COL Dr...

Arrangements and procedures to assess security risks and national

defence requirements

COL Dr Catalin-Marius Tarnacop

NATO Studies Centre

Agenda

• Underlying Principles

• Underlying Process

• Management of the process

What is Defence Policy?

Defence Policy “ involves the political direction of a nation’s defence resources as a whole with a

view to ensuring national security, protecting vital interests and furthering the international aims of

the state”

…the hand-maiden of a nation’s Foreign Policy

Why?

• Major Change – Internal– External

• Differing objectives– Appropriate (Roles, Size, Shape, Capabilities,

Equipment, Professionalism)– Accountable (mechanisms, openness,

transparency)– Affordable (Public Expenditure, Efficiency)

Why?

“The aim of the National Defence Strategy is to make Armed Forces and their

supporting structures modern, professional, accountable and efficient. They also have

to be affordable within a medium term economic framework.”

National Defence Strategy or Security Sector Review ?

Defence

Issues

Defence

Issues


Security Sector Issues


Defence

Issues

Defence

Issues


State Security IssuesState Security Issues



Defence Issues

Defence Issues

• National Defence Strategy should start from Foreign Policy goals, but it is only a Defence Review

• The Security Sector Review is much broader– more holistic approach for SSR, to include all

security sector actors– SSR addresses defence as just one element


Advantages of SSR vs NDS

• Establish optimum resources for Defence vs rest of public sector

• Identify best/alternative means of addressing threats

• Identify non-military tasks that require military response

Security Sector Reform Process Develop Context

Descriptions

Identify security threats

Develop Security Policy

Develop Defence Policy

Develop Missions& Tasks

Develop Capabilities &Force options

Develop Law& Order Policy

Develop Legal Framework

Amend social policies

Develop Foreign policy

Agreement of options

Develop associatedPolicies, etc

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F

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H

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THE NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY

[GOVERNMENT PROGRAM (DEFENCE)]

- THE NATIONAL DEFENSE STRATEGY -

STRATEGIES, PROGRAMS AND DEPARTAMENTAL PLANS

THE NATIONAL MILITARY STRATEGY

DEFENSE PLANNING GUIDANCEGUIDELINES OR STRATEGIC PLANNING DIRECTIVES, SPECIFIC TO THE

INSTITUTIONS WHICH ARE TASK-ASSIGNED IN THE DEFENSE AREA OF

EXPERTISE

STRATEGIC PLANNING DIRECTIVE

JOINT STRATEGIC CAPABILITIES PLAN

ANNUAL PLANS CONCERNING THE MODERNIZATION AND THE TRAINING

OF FORCES BASED ON

LONG TERM PROCUREMENT STRATEGY

JOINT DOCTRINE OF THE ARMED FORCES

SERVICES DOCTRINES

REGULATIONS (FIELD MANUALS); DISPOSITIONS;

GUIDELINES

MILITARY STRATEGIC LEVEL

OPERATIONAL LEVEL

TACTICAL LEVEL

11

22

33

44

55

66

National security and defence hierarchyNATIONAL SECURITY

LEVEL

Security Sector Reform Process – Stage 1Develop Context

Descriptions












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Stage 1: Develop Context Descriptions

• What ?– Rational views of the possible future covering best

to worst (“scenarios”)

• How ? - Based upon establishing “drivers”– Physical, Technological, Economic, Social/Cultural, Legal,

Political, Military

• Who?– Defence Policy staff – Government Departments (Foreign Affairs,

Finance, Interior, Other)– Civil society (academics)– Parliament

The new Strategic Realities (1)

• A new Europe and Eurasia• The rise of ethnic and religious tensions• Weak states and ungoverned areas• Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction• Drugs and organised crime• Terrorism • Environmental degradation

The new Strategic Realities (2)

• Population growth and demographic change• Urbanisation and transnational migration flows• Resource shortages, especially of water and oil• Globalisation and growing disparities• The pace of technological change• The pace of social change

The New Strategic Environment compared to Cold War Era

• More interdependent• More vulnerable due to increasing reliance on

technology• More uncertain due to increasing range of challenges

& threats • More varied due to the nature of challenges & threats • More demanding due to complexity • An environment with smaller scale, but more frequent

use of force international issues, often asymmetrical operations

• Complex, dynamic, having a lot of instability sources

• The threat of a major military conflict has diminishedRisks

• Regional (tensions and conflicts that may extend)• Asymmetric (terrorism, weapons mass destruction)• Transnational (drug trafficking, organized crime,

illegal immigration)• Contingencies (placed in the area of uncertainty)

The New Strategic Environment (2)

Other factors

• National interests• Values• International Commitments and Responsibilities• Security Priorities:

– Support to the Civil Power– Europe– Outside Europe

Future worldsPOLITICS & GOVERNANCE

REGIONAL/

RESOURCE

INTERNA -TIONAL

SOCIAL COHESION ECONOMIC MILITARY

Political Stability Modern state. Regional leader in stable, resource rich region.

Fully and Effectively Engaged

Fully Developed, Harmonious and Stable.

Steadily increasing, broad & sustainable economic improvement

Constitutional, Peaceful & Stable

Relative political stability

Existence within a stabilising region

Constructively Engaged

General improvement Gradual economic improvement

Professionalising military with gradually improving civil-military relations

Political Instability

Existence within a turbulent region.

Increasingly engaged

Fluid, improving in many areas, declining in some

Economic fragility Professionalising military with difficult civil-military relations

Political Chaos Regional failure leading to competition over poor resources

Ill-prepared Disintegration and Chaos Economic Decline Contempt of Constitution and Law

Severe resource & environmental constraint leading to internal instability and regional conflict.

Relative Isolation

Economic Collapse Military government

Complete failure of state leading to external control

Disintegration & warlordism

Future worldsPOLITICS & GOVERNANCE

REGIONAL/

RESOURCE

INTERNA -TIONAL

SOCIAL COHESION ECONOMIC MILITARY

Political Stability Modern state. Regional leader in stable, resource rich region.

Fully and Effectively Engaged

Fully Developed, Harmonious and Stable.

Steadily increasing, broad & sustainable economic improvement

Constitutional, Peaceful & Stable

Relative political stability

Existence within a stabilising region

Constructively Engaged

General improvement Gradual economic improvement

Professionalising military with gradually improving civil-military relations

Political Instability

Existence within a turbulent region.

Increasingly engaged

Fluid, improving in many areas, declining in some

Economic fragility Professionalising military with difficult civil-military relations

Political Chaos Regional failure leading to competition over poor resources

Ill-prepared Disintegration and Chaos Economic Decline Contempt of Constitution and Law

Severe resource & environmental constraint leading to internal instability and regional conflict.

Relative Isolation

Economic Collapse Military government

Complete failure of state leading to external control

Disintegration & warlordism

Military drivers

Disintegration and warlordism

Military government

Contempt of constitution and law

Professionalising military with difficult civil military relations

Professionalising military with gradually improving civil military relations

Constitutional, peaceful and stableBest state

Problem state


Descriptions












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Stage 2 - Develop Threat Descriptions

• What ?Agreed understanding of security threats

within chosen future worlds• How ?Individual , then group view

Risk analysis

No set format, should include:

- Political & security risk analysis- Political threat assessment- Intelligence & security briefs- Military threat analysis- Military estimate (Aim, Factors, Own course,

Plan/Recommendation)- Economic risk analysis- Commercial risk analysis


Descriptions












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Stage 3 - Establish Security Policy• What?

– Statement of broad defence requirements of the State and role of the military and other instruments of State in addressing identified threats.

• How? Based upon– Threats– Previously agreed policies or obligations (including

regional co-operation)

• Who? National Security Council &– Defence Policy staff– Foreign Ministry– Interior Ministry – Finance Ministry– Other Government Ministries– Civil Society– Parliament

National Security Strategy

InternationalEnvironment

Domestic Environment

PotentialPower

Actual Power/InstrumentsPriorities

Statecraft

Policies and Results

Objectives

National Interests

Opportunities/Threats

MEANSENDS

COSTRISK

Assumptions

Analysis

Plans

Implementation

Evaluation

Stage 3 - Security Policy Components

Role of Foreign Affairs

Ministry

Role of Internal Affairs

Role of Finance

Ministry

Role of Defence

Role of Intelligence Role of

Education/ Health etc

Role of Presidents/Prime Ministers Office

Role of Justice Ministry

Stage 3 - Security Policy

Foreign Affairs

Internal Affairs

Finance

DefenceIntelligence Education/ Health etc

President’s/ Prime Ministers Office

Justice


Descriptions












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Stage 4 - Develop Defence Policy

• What?

– Statement of defence role in meeting security

priorities

• How?

– Based upon Security Policy

• Who?

– Defence Policy staff

– Civil Society

– Other Government Departments

National Defence Strategy ProcessDevelop Context

Descriptions

Develop ContextDescriptions

Develop militarythreat

descriptions

Develop militarythreat

descriptions



Develop Capability

& Force Options

Develop Capability

& Force Options

Developassociated policies

processes structures

Developassociated policies

processes structures

Develop Missions & Tasks

Develop Missions & Tasks

Capability

Planning

Defence

Policy

PlanningResource

Planning

Operational

Planning

Requirements

Planning

Effective linkage is essential

Joint Strategic Planning System


Descriptions












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Stage 5 - Develop Defence Missions and Military Tasks

• What ?– Defence Missions & associated Military Tasks

• How ?– Based on Defence policy and planning

assumptions

• Who ?– Defence Policy staff– Military Operational Staff– Military Support Staff


Descriptions












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Stage 6 - Develop Capability & Force Options

• What? Options for Military Capability: Command & control; intelligence & surveillance;

maneuver (doctrine and training); mobility & counter-mobility; firepower; protection; logistics

• How? - Based upon components of missions and military

tasks, planning assumptions, military doctrine • Who?- Defence Policy staff; Military Operational Staff;

Military Support Staff; Civil Society ?


Descriptions












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Stage 7 - Agreement of Options• What ?

– Agreed Military Capability• How ?

– Costed options assessed against national needs • Who?

– Defence Minister– Chief of Staff– Finance Minister– Cabinet/Prime Minister/President– Civil Society?


Descriptions












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Stage 8 - Develop associated policies, processes, structures etc

• Personnel

• Procurement & Logistics

• Finance

• Policy and planning

• Accountability

• Linkages to rest of government


Descriptions












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Stage 9 - Publication

• Make publicly available

• Parliamentary debate

Timetable

• Will probably take longer than planned!

Other countries experience:14 months to 2 years

Management of the National Defence Strategy

• Institutional framework• Top level involvement/support• Clear aims and objectives• Dedicated coordinating team• Continuity of (key) participants• Open and Inclusive process• Plan and manage the project • Realistic implementation plan

Implementation

• Long term • Quick wins• Build into normal planning processes• Delegate responsibility to specific individuals• Monitor progress, including oversight by

Parliament• Flexible

Questions ?

Invenzia Generic Threats

Environmental stress/resource constraints – inadequate resources available

7th

6th

Internal security – tensions Muslim community

Civil disaster – major event5th

Organised crime, terrorism, proliferation WMD4th

Border insecurity – Muslim armed separatist movement / Thrucazia

3rd

Destabilising external influences2nd

Border insecurity - dispute Norvetia /Eastlandia1st

Invenzia - Generic Threats

L M H

L

M

H

Probability

Imp

act

T11 - Border Insecurity - Common Transgression

T13 - Border Insecurity - Major illegal movements of goods/people

T15 - Border Insecurity -Regular military bodies (Raids to Full -scale invasion)

T22 -Destabilising External Influences –Reasonable Impact

T23 -Destabilising External Influences –Active hostility (Major Impact)

T32 - Environmental Stress/Resource Constraints –Sufficient Resource Available

T33 - Environmental Stress/Resource Constraints –Inadequate Resource Available

T34 - Environmental Stress/Resource Constraints –Severe Resource Scarcity

T41 - Political Instability -Stable

T42 - Political Instability -Tensions

T45 - Political Instability -Ethnic competition through arms rather than popular mandate

T52 - Human Underdevelopment –Fairly Literate & Trained Society

T54 - Human Underdevelopment – Underfed, Malnourished, Subsistence, etc.

T61 - Internal Security – Minimal Threat

T62 - Internal Security - Tensions

T65 - Internal Security –Breakdown

T72 - Civil Disaster –Localised Problems

T73 - Civil Disaster – Serious Event(s)

T74 - Civil Disaster – Major Event(s)

T82 - Economic Shocks & Stress – Medium Sustainable Growth

T92 -Social Polarisation – Good Social Relations.

T85 - Economic Shocks & Stress – Economic Collapse

T93 -Social Polarisation – Fluid

T94 -Social Polarisation –Severely Polarised

I. DIRECTIONS

II. CONCEPT DEVELOP-MENT

III OPERATIONAL AND STRATEGIC PLANS

OPTIONS

(ANALYSIS)

MISSIONS

IV.

SUPPORT

IV. CONCEPT DEFINITION

II. SELECTION OF CONCEPT

VI. PRODUCTION AND

SERVICES IMPLEMENTATION

VIII. EQUIPMENT DESTRUCTION

V. TECHNOLOGICAL

DEVELOPMENT

SCENARIOS

I. MISSION REQUIRE- MENTS

III. OPERATIONALREQUIRMENTS

VII.CONDUCT AND SUPPORT

JSCP

MIL STRAT

FRA

DP

PPDPG

PO

AB

JSPS

PPBS

ANALYSIS

DB

CP

DEFENSE PLANNING COUNCIL

JSPS - Joint Strategic Planning System;

JSCP - Joint Strategic Capabilities Plan;

MIL STRAT - Military Strategy;

DP - Defense Programs.

PPBS - Planning, programming, budgeting and evaluating system in the MOND;

FRA - Force and resource assessment;

DPG - Defense Planning Guidance.

PO - Programming objectives;

PP - Project Programs;

PE - Program expenditures;

DB - Budget draft;

AB - Approved budget.

JOPES

ACQ

Defence planning system

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