Assessing the Socio-economic Impacts of Ketsana in the Philippines: Approaches and Methodologies by Emma Porio, PhD Science Research Fellow, Manila Observatpry; Professor of Sociology, Department of Sociology and Anthropology, School of Social Sciences, Ateneo de Manila University Paper presented in the 2015 International Workshop on Typhoon and Flood(IWTF)-APEC Experience Sharing on Hazardous Weather Events and Risk Management, National Applied Research Laboratories , Taiwan Typhoon and Flood Research Institute, Taipei, May 27-29, 2015. *
Transcript
Assessing the Socio-economic Impacts of Ketsana in the Philippines: Approaches
and Methodologies by
Emma Porio, PhD
Science Research Fellow, Manila Observatpry; Professor of Sociology, Department of Sociology and Anthropology,
School of Social Sciences, Ateneo de Manila University Paper presented in the 2015 International Workshop on Typhoon and
Flood(IWTF)-APEC Experience Sharing on Hazardous Weather Events and Risk Management, National Applied Research Laboratories , Taiwan Typhoon and
Flood Research Institute, Taipei, May 27-29, 2015. *
PLEASE NOTE
• Except for those published images, no slide here can be reproduced without permission from the author(s) as these are still part of a research program in progress.
• Data Bases: 1) Coastal Cities at Risk (IDRC) 2) Enhancing Short- and Long-Term Adaptation to Climate Change (Asia Pacific Network, Japan) 3) Philippine Disaster National Assessment (2009) 4) The Social Impact of Ondoy and Pedring (IPC), 2011. • CONTEXTS IS CRITICAL IN ASSESSMENTS.
Lining up for relief goods in Metro Manila after Ketsana storm/floods
Extreme Event: Ondoy/Ketsana 2009 (2009)
Photo: Department of National Defence (DND) / AFP/GettyImages
Photo : Picture: REUTERS/Philippine Air Force
Photo: Business Mirror / AP
The Disaster: Anatomy of Ondoy/Ketsana Floods
Anatomy of Tropical Storm Ketsana
•Volume of rain, equivalent to one-month rainfall, fell within 6 hours on the early morning of September 26, 2009; •Approximately 450 mm of rain (Manila Observatory) Observatory, was recorded; generated high flooding in the Marikina River; causing extensive flooding in Metro Manila,neighboring Rizal province & the cities of Antipolo, Makati, Malabon, Marikina, Muntinlupa, Pasig, Quezon, San Juan, Taguig, and Valenzuela. • Sept. 28-29 (Pedring); Oct 2—state of calamity
declared •Extensive Damages and Losses
Source: Typhoon Ondoy and Pepeng: Post Disaster Needs Assessment Main Report
Source: Typhoon Ondoy and Pepeng: Post Disaster Needs Assessment Main Report
and its Immediate Impacts 2. Assessing its Impacts the Year After 3. Approach 4. Methodologies 5. Key Findings 6. Results, Synthesis, Conclusions 7. Post-Script on Assessment Approaches
and Methodologies
Assessing the Impacts of Tropical Storm Ketsana: Approaches and Methodologies
Framing the Assessment:
•Assessing the immediate impacts within the contexts of hazards, vulnerability and adaptive capacities and risks to the rural-urban system •The importance of framing it within the context of crafting resilience by the urban-rural system and its people—decision-makers, leaders, communities, vulnerable households and families
•A transparent, accountable, and results-based recovery and reconstruction program
•Community-based, people-centered, and equitable approaches
•Reduction of future risks egree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes.
Definitions (conceptual here—for research, include operational or measurement dimensions) •Risk = Hazard, Exposure and Vulnerability •Vulnerability (Hyogo Framework for Action): “The conditions determined by physical, social, economic and environmental factors or processes, which increase the susceptibility of a community to the impact of hazards”. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity. •Reduction of risk--The substantial reduction of disaster risk and losses in lives, livelihoods and health and in the economic, physical, social, cultural and environmental assets of persons, businesses, communities and countries
Social Inequality in thePhilippines Medium Inequality
Mehrotra et al. 2011
Resilience of Social-Ecological Systems: Four Dimensions
Resilience
Vulnerable Populations
Social Factors
Built Infrastructure
Critical and Environmental Infrastructure
Disaster Risk, Human Development Framework
and Security for the Poor U
R B A N I Z A T I O N
E X T R E M E W E A T H E R
I N C O M E I N E Q U A L I T Y Source: A. Loyzaga, E.Porio, et al. (2015)
How does the Philippines & other A-P countries rank
in terms of Risk?
Source: World Risk Report, 2014 (UNU-EHS)
Table 1: Tools of Community Risk Assessment/Impacts
• Direct observation • Systematic observation of people and relationships, objects, events, processes and recording these
observations to get a better picture of the community • Semi-structured • interviews • Informal discussions with the community members using a flexible guide of questions – interviews,
group discussions or bunch of people sitting around the table (BOPSAT) • Drama, Role Play and Simulations • Acting out a particular situation • Diagramming and Visualization tools • Drawing maps, diagrams, etc. to illustrate, analyze, make relations or draw trends. Historical profile,
mapping, modeling, transect, seasonal calendar, institutional and social network analysis, livelihood/ class analysis, problem tree, gendered resource mapping are some examples of diagrammatic tools
•
Tool Description
Review of secondary data Collection of relevant information from published or unpublished sources
Direct observation Systematic observation of people and relationships, objects, events, processes and recording these observations to get a better picture of the community
Semi-structured interviews Informal discussions with the community members using a flexible guide of questions – interviews, group discussions or bunch of people sitting around the table (BOPSAT)
Drama, Role Play and Simulations
Acting out a particular situation
Diagramming and Visualization tools
Drawing maps, diagrams, etc. to illustrate, analyze, make relations or draw trends. Historical profile, mapping, modeling, transect, seasonal calendar, institutional and social network analysis, livelihood/ class analysis, problem tree, gendered
groups, case studies) & secondary data sources to examine:
Intersections of geo-physical and social vulnerability indicators; of social-ecological and political economic systems heightening vulnerability of systems, places and groups (LGUs, commercial-industrial, urban poor communities) • Participatory community risk assessment (PCRA) Gender-Based Hazard Assessment GSRAP: Gender Sensitive Risk Assessment and Planning CB-DRRM: Community-Based Disaster Risk Reduction and Management
Table 2.1 DRR & Extended Socio-Economic Benefits
Direct Benefits Avoided Direct Disaster Costs Avoided Indirect Disaster Costs Avoided Non-Economic Disaster Impacts
Direct & Indirect Costs Planning Construction Labour Materials Opportunity costs of the allocation of resources
Improved access to water sources and sanitation services for HH and families
Community‐based disaster preparedness
Improved women’s involvement in community level activities
Improved participation and leadership of women in community programs leading to access of resources
Installing more resilient wireless communications
Enhancing access to telephony and electronic data services
Improved connectivity, especially for DRR managers and at=risk families
Training farmers to diversify the use of crops
Reducing vulnerability to poverty Improved access to crops and food for poor HH and families
Better monitoring of food supplies Improving the food supply chain, possibly making it more cost‐effective
Supporting food security and nutritional health of households/families
Source: Porio 2015
Metro Manila Governance: Social Vulnerability, Building Adaptive Capacity and Resilience
Sources of Risks/Exposure: •Population: 12 M; daytime: 16-18M people; 25 M (Mega Manila) •Poverty Incidence: 20-30 percent •Percentage of population living in informal settlements/no security of tenure: 40-50 percent •National capital—below sea level •Located in 3 flood basins •Density: 18,000 per sq.km. •Urban-Economic Primacy—pop.12x the next largest city; accounts 37 % of nat. GDP •Earthquake fault runs through the metropolis; high soil subsidence •Governance (decentralized ; fragmented): MMDA (16 cities) and local government units (17) •Informality: 45-60 percent
1979 2009
INCREASED EXPOSURE TO FLOODING INCREASING RISK
TO DISASTERS
Slide courtesy of Dr. Fernando Siringan
CHOKE POINTS IN PASIG RIVER
RESULTS
Source: A. Loyzaga, et al. Coastal Cities at Risk…………………..
Metro Manila: Bay, Flood Basins,Rivers, Lake
QC: Inland Alluvial
Inland Alluvial
Coastal Alluvial
Headwaters alluvial
Lake Alluvial
CONTEXT
• Provide a brief overview of the context, outlining the problem and importance of the research question highlighted on slide three
Manggahan Floodway during Ketsana (2009)—flows through 4 cities
Climate impacts: a compound effect combining direct impacts, indirect impacts and pre-existing vulnerabilities.(Source: Jo da Silva, Sam Kernaghan & Andrés Luque, 2012)
Approach: Vulnerability, Adaptation & Resilience in Metro Manila
SOCIAL
GEO -PHYSICAL POL-ECO
Rapid Urban Growth Slow Pop Decline Jobless Growth Poverty Inequality
Land Subsidence Intense Rainfall SLR Storm Surge Floods
Urban policies Investments Land use Housing Services
LEVELS of ANALYSIS
Source:Porio, See and Dalupang, 2014
VULNERABILITYBuilding Adaptive Capacity and Resilience
Vulnerability, Adaptive Capacity & Bulding Resilience in Metro Manila
SOCIAL
GEO -PHYSICAL POL-ECO-
CULTURAL
Rapid Urban Growth Slow Pop Decline Jobless Growth Poverty Inequality
Land Subsidence Intense Rainfall SLR Storm Surge Floods
Urban policies Investments Land use Housing Services Preparednes/Adaptability
VULNERABILITYBuilding Adaptive Capacity and Resilience
LEVELS of ANALYSIS
Age, Income Job/Occupation Livelihood Sources Education Gender Health Housing Basic Services & Infra Com Political Alignment Level of Informality Social Capital/Trust Networks Space/Place Vulnerability (Commu-nity level)
Source:Porio, See and Dalupang(2014)
Business establishments
Informal settlements
Threats to City Resilience: Poverty, Inequality and Social Exclusion
Social Inequality in thePhilippines Medium Inequality
Assessing the Impacts of Tropical Storm Ketsana
1) P H I L I P P I N E S TYPHOONS ONDOY AND PEPENG: Post-Disaster Needs Assessment MAIN REPORT 2) The Social Impacts of Tropical Storm Ondoy and Typhoon Pepeng The recovery of communities in Metro Manila and Luzon INSTITUTE OF PHILIPPINE CULTURE
Source: The Social Impacts of Tropical Storm Ondoy and Typhoon Pepeng (IPC)
Source: The Social Impacts of Tropical Storm Ondoy and Typhoon Pepeng (IPC)
Source: The Social Impacts of Tropical Storm Ondoy and Typhoon Pepeng (IPC)
•Livelihoods and socio-economic impacts •Coping strategies •Access to credit and levels of debt •Social relations and cohesion •Resettlement options and housing conditions •Local governance and recovery •Recommendations from communities
Key Findings/Results
Source: The Social Impacts of Tropical Storm Ondoy and Typhoon Pepeng (IPC)
Source: The Social Impacts of Tropical Storm Ondoy and Typhoon Pepeng (IPC)
•Livelihoods and socio-economic impacts: Communities reported an overall reduction in income Livelihood assistance was provided to the vast majority Communities viewed support not addressed long-term livelihood recovery needs (i.e., lack of capital).
Key Findings/Results
Recommendations from communities •Livelihood support provided was often unsustainable;improve communication among sub-groups within their communities; •In-city resettlement best: 1) livelihood and employment opportunities; (2) less disruptions in social support networks •Off-site: (1) ensure access to basic services and (2) sustainable livelihoods
Key Findings/Results
Source: The Social Impacts of Tropical Storm Ondoy and Typhoon Pepeng (IPC)
Source: The Social Impacts of Tropical Storm Ondoy and Typhoon Pepeng (IPC)
•Coping strategies: With uncertain income sources, 1) took additional, temporary jobs, 2) reduced consumption, 3) took multiple loans, including basic expense •Access to credit and levels of debt: 1)Financial support from relatives continued to be rare in line with the research’s team 2009 findings. Borrowing from multiple sources intensified in all communities •Level of indebtedness had increased.
Key Findings/Results
Social relations and cohesion: 1) Gender division of labor had returned to its pre-Ondoy situation; 2) youth were making significant contributions to the recovery effort; 3) While collaborative behavior was widespread among affected communities ; 4) Increased tensions in communities and greater levels of insecurity were observed
Key Findings/Results
•Resettlement options and housing conditions 1) Reports from communities on the
provision of housing assistance were mixed;
2) Residents in two study sites, Botolan in Zambales and Tublay in Benguet, remained in temporary shelter two years after they were moved from their homes ;
3) Communities were reluctant to resettle in areas outside their area (cf. social costs).
Key Findings/Results
Resettlement (cont’d): 1) Inadequate information on resettlement
sites; 2) Some considering leaving their place of
residence /resettlement area Local governance and recovery: • Significant role of social workers • System put in place for recovery assistance
had led to inequitable outcomes.
Key Findings/Results
Local governance and recovery (cont’d): • Lack of information both about the
targeting process and about the existing sources of assistance were consistently observed.
• Barangay and community level disaster preparedness measures need further strengthening.
Key Findings/Results
Thank you
Commercial-Industrial Establishments Ave. Damage to buildings: Median (P140,000); Mean (P1.3 million) Ave. Income Loss: Median (P50,000); Mean (P192,142) Ave. spent on repairs: Median (P50,000); Mean (P319, 434) Relocated after floods: 20 % Regularly maintain buildings: 51 % Materials: concrete, brick, metal concrete with steel, blocks, bricks, wood and metal N=100
Urban Poor Households (Marikina City-Upstream) Ave. income loss:P21,000 Ave. spent on repairs: P141,000 No electricity: 30 days Ave. no. of workdays lost: 30 days Housing Adaptation: Added floors M t i l S
Urban Poor Households (Pasig City--Downstream) No electricity: 14 days Ave. no. of workdays lost: 10 days Housing adaptation: strengthened foundation Materials: Scrap, wood, hollow blocks, GI sheets N=100 Ave income loss:
Summary of Flood Losses, Responses/Adaptations by Sector and Eco-Environmental Location: Pasig and Marikina
Thank you Table 1.Summary of 2008 and 2011 Surveys Socio-Economic Characteristics of Respondents/Households 1Pre-Ondoy Marikina, Pasig, KAMANAVA, and Taguig 2 Post-Ondoy survey in the hardest hit cities of Marikina and Pasig
Ecological-Environmental Characteristics of Dwelling Place
No. Days Flooded
Housing Fully Damaged
Access to Water & Other Services (electricity, waste collection, footpaths)
Gender of HH Respondent
Relatively higher elevation from the river/relatively dry
1 (13%)
13 % Slightly inadequate
13 %
Medium elevation, Slightly degraded and wet/muddy
10.5 (39%)
39% Mildly inadequate
37%
Highly degraded/Depressed, muddy, heavily silted wetlands or swampy areas
25 (47%)
47%
Highly inadequate
49%
Ecological-Environmental Characteristics, Flood-Related Damage and Gender Among Households with Income Below Poverty Line (P10,000 and below/about US$1.5 dollar/day) During and After Ketsana Floods in 2009
Recommendations from communities
•Strengthen local disaster preparedness activities: (1) acquisition of basic material and equipment of relief operations; (2) implement disaster preparedness training for all and (3) put in place a local system for relief and recovery operations
How Thick/Thin is Social Capital Among the Marginalized? Within/Across Sectors and Resource/Power Spaces? How do we build Bridging Capital for Climate Resilience Among
the Marginal Groups?
Recommendation: Assessing Impacts and Resilience Initiatives
• Advance impact assessments of CCA-DRR: Disaggregate vulnerability and flood impacts by ecological-environmental system/place-based vulnerability, social vulnerability by gender, income/livelihood, sector vulnerability (commercial-industrial)
• CCA-DRR Systems-oriented/Trans-disciplinary knowledge base • Support mainstreaming (top-down) initiatives of local
governments with bottom-up () community based adaptation measures (structural/non-structural) by urban poor communities and commercial-industrial sectors/various stakeholders
• Local Govts.’/Community-based adaptation/resilience building initiatives of the city, barangay DRRM and vulnerable groups including changing structures of social insurance/social capital
Parting Messages • Building adaptive capacity and resilience is
anchored on a social vulnerability analysis --science-based, context-sensitive, including perspectives of stakeholders--
• Trans-disciplinal analysis/action: for building adaptive capacity/resilience options e.g., crafting policies/programs at diff. levels of applications/intersections
• Transform our habits of work/practices through a shift in our conceptual-analytical, and methodological perspectives in applications in decision-making frameworks of local governments, CSOs, CBOs, business, etc.
Concluding Messages
• Hazards cross political and administrative boundaries.
• Urban risk and resilience must be understood in the context of development and an uncertain climate future.
• The nature, complexity and dynamics of risk require a trans-disciplinary approach and systems thinking.
• Advance Post-Sendai ways for assessment approaches/methodologies to urban resilience
Thank you! Maraming Salamat! Salamat Kaayo sa Inyong Tanan!
Thank you!
Acknowledgements: Coastal Cities at Risk Project (IDRC, Manila Observatory, Ateneo de
Manila University) • Exec. Dir. Antonia Yulo-Loyzaga and Dr. Emma Porio • Dr. Gemma Narisma • Dr. Celine Vicente • Dr. Kendra Gotangco and theFORIN Team • Dr Fernando Siringan • Dr. Rosa Perez • Jessica Bercilla • Julie Dado, Monica Ortiz • Emil Gozo, Justin See, John Paul Dalupang, Liz del
