Asset Class Performance YTD, QTD, and MTD - Total Return (%) · 2019-09-23 · UAA Under Armour...

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September Rotation

The S&P 500 (SPY) ETF is currently up more than 1% in the month of September — a month that has

historically been the weakest month of the year.

Notably, though, September has indeed been a pretty rough month for areas of the market that had

been doing well coming into the month, but it’s also been a great month for areas that had been weak.

We’ve already seen this type of rotation out of winners into other areas of the market a couple of oth-

er times throughout the year, and we view this as a healthy sign that investor appetite is still strong for

equities as an asset class around the globe.

Note this month’s weakness in the Nasdaq 100, Tech, and Health Care in our asset class matrix below.

We’ve seen MTD weakness in these top YTD performers just as we’ve seen buyers step in and buy En-

ergy and Financials — two areas of relative weakness when looking at full year returns.

US Related Global

ETF Description ETF Description

SPY S&P 500 1.21 3.59 13.10 EWA Australia 0.35 4.84 14.83

DIA Dow 30 1.87 5.24 14.91 EWZ Brazil 7.12 25.51 29.61

QQQ Nasdaq 100 -1.15 5.00 22.56 EWC Canada 3.36 7.64 11.06

IJH S&P Midcap 400 2.26 1.59 7.59 ASHR China 0.44 8.36 25.97

IJR S&P Smallcap 600 4.11 2.57 5.24 EWQ France 4.14 7.55 27.54

IWB Russell 1000 1.29 3.56 13.04 EWG Germany 4.71 6.41 24.01

IWM Russell 2000 3.31 2.88 7.82 EWH Hong Kong 0.26 5.66 29.24

IWV Russell 3000 1.48 3.54 12.60 PIN India -1.69 6.29 26.97

EWI Italy 4.16 13.49 32.69

IVW S&P 500 Growth 0.34 4.44 18.16 EWJ Japan 1.30 3.30 14.15

IJK Midcap 400 Growth 2.00 1.75 10.28 EWW Mexico -0.85 3.80 28.74

IJT Smallcap 600 Growth 3.37 2.19 6.66 EWP Spain 0.50 3.17 29.02

IVE S&P 500 Value 2.40 2.54 7.33 RSX Russia 2.37 13.85 2.85

IJJ Midcap 400 Value 2.45 1.25 4.35 EWU UK 2.91 4.49 16.02

IJS Smallcap 600 Value 4.77 2.69 3.33

DVY DJ Dividend 1.85 1.67 7.52 EFA EAFE 2.23 4.89 20.40

RSP S&P 500 Equalweight 1.72 2.31 10.24 EEM Emerging Mkts 1.22 9.63 30.21

IOO Global 100 1.69 4.37 16.31

FXB British Pound 4.59 3.77 9.43 EEB BRIC 2.69 15.38 28.47

FXE Euro 0.32 4.45 12.85

FXY Yen -1.98 0.20 3.85 DBC Commodities 1.92 6.51 -2.84

USO Oil 5.92 7.37 -12.97

XLY Cons Disc 0.09 0.12 10.91 UNG Nat. Gas -1.79 -2.80 -29.34

XLP Cons Stap -0.73 -1.14 6.41 GLD Gold -2.16 4.30 12.31

XLE Energy 8.10 4.86 -8.46 SLV Silver -3.73 2.03 6.08

XLF Financials 3.32 3.45 10.58

XLV Health Care 0.36 2.95 19.24 SHY 1-3 Yr Treasuries -0.16 0.22 0.62

XLI Industrials 3.87 4.41 15.35 IEF 7-10 Yr Treasuries -1.02 0.80 3.29

XLB Materials 3.29 5.70 15.34 TLT 20+ Yr Treasuries -1.26 1.43 7.65

XLK Technology -0.23 7.26 22.33 AGG Aggregate Bond -0.41 0.86 3.29

IYZ Telecom -3.29 -4.43 -9.34 BND Total Bond Market -0.40 0.86 3.22

XLU Utilities -2.01 3.67 12.65 TIP T.I.P.S. -0.39 1.11 1.96

MTD QTD YTD MTD QTD YTD

Asset Class Performance YTD, QTD, and MTD - Total Return (%)



• Our S&P 500 decile analysis for the month of September shows rotation out of the year’s top per-forming strategies into the year’s worst performing strategies.

• To run the analysis, we break up the S&P 500 into deciles (10 groups of 50 stocks each) based on the various categories shown in the matrix below. We then calculate the average September % change for the stocks in each decile.

• Through August, the top performing stocks were the largest stocks in the index that had bullish analyst ratings and low levels of short interest. The worst stocks through August had high dividend yields, lower market caps, bearish analyst ratings, and high levels of short interest.

• So far this month, the smallest stocks in the S&P 500 have outperformed the largest stocks. The highest yielding stocks have also outperformed, and the same is true for stocks with high levels of short interest. Stocks with the best analyst ratings have been weak.

• The main way to show the rotation out of winners into losers is in the bottom row of the matrix. Here you can see that the 50 best performing S&P 500 stocks YTD through August are up just 0.14% in September, while the 50 worst performing S&P 500 stocks YTD through August are up an average of 4.6%.

Decile 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Decile 10

Market Cap

(Largest to

Smallest)

1.25% 1.49% 1.27% 1.76% 1.39% 0.24% 1.61% 1.74% 2.05% 2.51%

P/E Ratio (Lowest

to Highest)1.94% 2.21% 2.46% 0.98% 0.07% 0.77% 1.81% 1.48% 0.34% 3.23%

Dividend Yield

(Highest to

Lowest)*

2.93% 1.19% 0.13% 2.09% 2.87% 1.96% 0.29% 1.85% 2.70% 0.24%

Short Interest

(Lowest to

Highest)

2.04% 1.55% 0.97% 1.74% 1.49% 0.49% 0.56% 1.58% 2.39% 2.51%

Institutional

Ownership (Most

to Least)

0.92% 0.90% 1.17% 0.90% 1.61% 1.61% 2.93% 2.26% 1.69% 1.31%

Analyst Ratings

(Best to Worst)0.42% 0.42% 0.83% 2.00% 2.08% 2.00% 2.29% 1.60% 1.66% 1.98%

% International

Revenues (Most

to Least)**

3.30% 1.72% 1.01% 2.19% 2.61% 1.43% 1.13% 2.02% 1.51% 0.58%

YTD % Chg Thru

August (Best to

Worst)

0.14% 0.79% 1.00% 0.39% 1.83% 1.39% 1.88% 1.77% 1.65% 4.60%

*Decile 10 of dividend yield category is made up of all stocks that pay no dividend.

**Decile 10 of international revenues category is made up of all stocks that have no international revenues.

S&P 500 Decile Performance: September 2017



• One stock characteristic where performance has remained steady so far in September is interna-tional revenue exposure.

• The weak dollar in 2017 has caused stocks with a high percentage of international revenues (revenues generated outside of the US) to outperform significantly this year. That was the case through August, but it’s also remained the case in September.

• As shown below, the decile of stocks in the S&P 500 with the highest percentage of international revenue exposure is up 3.3% in September, while the stocks with the most domestic revenue expo-sure are up just 0.6%.

• As long as the dollar is weak, we’ll likely continue to see this trend in place. If we were to all of a sudden see stocks with heavy domestic exposure begin to outperform, though, it might be a sign that the dollar is set to begin rallying again.

• Remember, Premium and Institutional members can use our International Revenues database to track geographic revenue exposure for individual stocks.

3.3%

1.7%

1.0%

2.2%

2.6%

1.4%1.1%

2.0%

1.5%

0.6%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

Most 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Least

International Revenues

https://www.bespokepremium.com/internationalrevenuesdatabase/



• Below we show the 30 best and 30 worst performing S&P 500 stocks on a year-to-date basis through August. We also show how they’ve performed so far in September.

• As you can see, the 30 worst performing stocks YTD through August are up 6.65% so far in Septem-ber, while the 30 best through August are up just 0.84%.

• If we saw this type of rotation into losers every time the market’s winners took a breather, there would never be much to worry about with the major indices.

Stock Company YTD % Thru August Sept. % Chg Stock Company YTD % Thru August Sept. % Chg

FL Foot Locker Inc -50.30 -3.46 VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals 117.92 -6.01

RRC Range Resources -49.48 8.92 NRG NRG Energy Inc 103.18 -3.59

CHK Chesapeake Energy -48.15 14.01 ALGN Align Technology Inc 83.86 6.05

BHGE Baker Hughes -47.82 7.76 ATVI Activision Blizzard Inc 81.56 -1.66

HP Helmerich & Payne Inc -45.30 20.03 WYNN Wynn Resorts Ltd 60.66 4.61

LB L Brands Inc -44.99 3.70 ILMN Illumina Inc 59.68 -1.73

UAA Under Armour Inc -44.41 2.41 NVDA NVIDIA Corp 58.74 6.39

AAP Advance Auto Parts Inc -42.11 -3.84 ISRG Intuitive Surgical Inc 58.42 2.21

M Macy's Inc -42.00 3.01 CNC Centene Corp 57.23 0.36

APC Anadarko Petroleum -41.30 19.63 LRCX Lam Research Corp 56.98 5.34

MAT Mattel Inc -41.13 -9.43 PYPL PayPal Holdings Inc 56.27 5.01

APA Apache Corp -38.81 11.43 ADSK Autodesk Inc 54.65 -1.92

HES Hess Corp -37.55 12.47 EA Electronic Arts Inc 54.27 -1.63

NBL Noble Energy Inc -37.55 12.71 RHT Red Hat Inc 54.23 -0.20

KR Kroger -36.63 -7.06 BA Boeing Co 53.94 8.08

MRO Marathon Oil Corp -35.76 15.20 FMC FMC Corp 52.44 4.57

NFX Newfield Exploration -35.48 9.45 RCL Royal Caribbean Cruises 51.71 -7.17

AZO AutoZone Inc -33.09 6.25 ADBE Adobe Systems Inc 50.71 -3.98

SIG Signet Jewelers -33.09 2.06 FB Facebook Inc 49.47 -0.38

MOS Mosaic -31.88 4.25 MU Micron Technology Inc 45.85 13.17

DVN Devon Energy -31.25 13.04 MTD Mettler-Toledo Intl 44.56 4.45

GWW WW Grainger Inc -30.00 8.54 SPGI S&P Global Inc 43.51 1.49

ORLY O'Reilly Automotive -29.55 4.66 COO Cooper Cos Inc 43.39 -7.46

AKAM Akamai Technologies -29.29 1.34 DLPH Delphi Automotive 43.13 5.90

PXD Pioneer Natural Res. -28.00 9.57 CERN Cerner Corp 43.09 2.01

HAL Halliburton Co -27.95 12.30 BCR CR Bard Inc 42.80 -0.79

FTI TechnipFMC PLC -27.30 4.61 AVGO Broadcom Ltd 42.60 -4.80

XEC Cimarex Energy Co -26.64 10.29 MCO Moody's Corp 42.18 2.48

FLR Fluor Corp -26.56 5.77 A Agilent Technologies Inc 42.05 1.95

MAC Macerich -25.51 -0.09 AAPL Apple Inc 41.60 -7.69

Average -36.63 6.65 Average 56.36 0.84

Worst S&P 500 Stocks YTD Through August Best S&P 500 Stocks YTD Through August



• Using our Interactive Chart Tool (which you can use at any time for free as well), below are updat-ed one-year charts of the major US index ETFs—SPY, QQQ, and IWM (small caps).

• As shown, SPY remains in a long-term uptrend, QQQ is currently testing its 50-day moving average, and IWM is currently attempting to break out to new all-time highs. An IWM (small caps) breakout is the key action we’re watching of these three charts because a breakout for small caps would act as confirmation of the breakout for large caps that we saw last week.

https://www.bespokepremium.com/chart-iq-test/



• A lot went on outside of the equity asset class this week, and below are one-year charts of the 10-Year Treasury yield, oil, and gold.

• The 10-year yield this week just barely pushed above the top of a downtrend channel (bullish for yields), while the same thing happened for oil. Gold, on the other hand, saw some technical weak-ness.

10-Year Treasury Yield: Last Year

1.5

1.7

1.9

2.1

2.3

2.5

2.7

Sep-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17

Oil: Last Year

40.0

42.0

44.0

46.0

48.0

50.0

52.0

54.0

56.0

58.0

Sep-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Sep-17

Gold: Last Year

1,100

1,150

1,200

1,250

1,300

1,350

1,400

Sep-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Sep-17



• Below is an updated look at country stock market performance both in the month of September and year-to-date. These returns are calculated in local currency terms. As shown, Brazil and major European countries like Germany, Italy, and France have done extremely well so far in September, while Japan is up quite a bit as well. The UK is the one G7 country that’s down on the month.

Country MTD % Chg YTD % Chg Country MTD % Chg YTD % Chg

Brazil 6.45 25.20 Serbia 0.36 2.85

Bermuda 6.27 9.40 Botswana 0.25 -4.60

Argentina 5.26 46.77 Morocco 0.12 6.27

Norway 4.94 13.80 Spain 0.04 10.17

Germany 4.52 9.75 Hungary 0.01 19.04

Philippines 4.05 21.06 Mauritius 0.01 21.28

Italy 4.02 17.19 Ecuador -0.01 18.76

France 3.92 8.69 New Zealand -0.03 13.57

Pakistan 3.75 -10.58 Nigeria -0.04 32.05

Sweden 3.41 5.43 Malaysia -0.12 7.88

Japan 3.31 6.18 Latvia -0.12 35.09

Vietnam 3.11 21.40 Dubai UAE -0.14 2.88

Portugal 2.86 17.31 China -0.25 8.02

Peru 2.67 16.19 Abu Dhabi (UAE) -0.30 -2.01

Thailand 2.65 7.53 Hong Kong -0.32 26.73

Russia 2.57 -2.46 Slovakia -0.39 4.24

Chile 2.47 27.20 Malta -0.52 -0.30

Switzerland 2.43 11.22 Australia -0.57 0.29

Netherlands 2.40 9.37 Kuwait -0.62 19.15

Czech Republic 2.37 13.55 Lebanon -1.13 -5.23

Israel 1.91 1.01 South Africa -1.14 10.32

Belgium 1.88 9.82 Taiwan -1.29 12.93

Jamaica 1.82 35.36 Mexico -1.35 10.69

Canada 1.62 1.12 Poland -1.55 27.18

Austria 1.62 24.44 Britain -1.63 2.34

Ukraine 1.53 9.67 Singapore -1.74 11.78

United States 1.17 11.69 Luxembourg -1.91 -2.42

Ireland 1.11 2.72 Lithuania -2.02 15.59

South Korea 1.08 17.88 Romania -2.55 10.75

Oman 0.95 -11.80 Namibia -2.83 5.98

Saudi Arabia 0.93 1.61 Estonia -2.84 14.90

Indonesia 0.81 11.61 Croatia -3.36 -8.29

Finland 0.68 7.27 Iceland -3.64 2.63

India 0.60 19.89 Bulgaria -3.80 15.73

Sri Lanka 0.57 3.20 Qatar -5.00 -19.89

Denmark 0.46 16.10 Turkey -5.65 32.84

Bahrain 0.42 7.17 Kenya -6.21 18.54

Colombia 0.37 9.73 Greece -6.24 20.24

G7 Country BRICs

Country Stock Market % Chg



• Below and on the following page we highlight sector trading range charts so you can see how they're all trending.

• Both Consumer sectors are in sideways to downtrending channels, with Consumer Staples on the cusp of breaking down.

• Energy has totally broken its downtrend channel at this point, but it’s also in extreme overbought territory.

• The Financial sector can’t quite get above the resistance line that we’ve drawn, but if it does, we’ll view it as a positive.

• Both Health Care and Industrials remain in nice long-term uptrend channels.

S&P 500 Trading Range: Last Six Months

-17.205

440

490

540

590

640

May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17

Pri

ce

Industrials

250

300

350

400

450

Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17

Pri

ce

Financials

570

620

670

720

770


Pri

ce

Consumer Discretionary

490

510

530

550

570

590

610


Pri

ce

Consumer Staples

450

470

490

510

530

550

570

590


Pri

ce

Energy

250

300

350

400

450


Pri

ce

Financials

400

450

500

550

600

650


Pri

ce

Industrials

700

750

800

850

900

950

1000


Pri

ce

Health Care

700

750

800

850

900

950

1000


Pri

ce

Health Care



• Materials recently broke out to a new high and remains in a strong uptrend.

• The Technology sector remains in an uptrend as well and appears to be consolidating a bit lately.

• Note that Utilities has just recently broken below its 50-day moving average — a bearish signal.

• You can see the weakness seen in Consumer Staples and Utilities this week in our trading range screen at right. Consumer Sta-ples is the only area of the mar-ket in oversold territory, and it’s deeply oversold at that. As Health Care and Technology have pulled back this week, Fi-nancials, Energy, and Industrials have moved nicely higher.

260

280

300

320

340

360

380


Pri

ce

Materials

440

May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17

700

750

800

850

900

950

1000

1050


Pri

ce

Technology

Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17

220

230

240

250

260

270

280

290


Pri

ce

Utilities

135

145

155

165

175

185

195


Pri

ce

Telecom


Index/Sector Current 1 Wk Ago ETF

S&P 500 OB OB SPY

Cons Discret. N N XLY

Cons Staples OS N XLP

Energy OB OB XLE

Financials OB N XLF

Health Care N OB XLV

Industrials OB OB XLI

Materials OB OB XLB

Technology N OB XLK

Telecom Svcs N N IYZ

Utilities N N XLU

Circle represents current level.

Tail represents where index was one week ago.

OS N OB

Sector Prices vs Trading Range



• Below are relative strength charts for the major sectors. When the line is rising, the sector is out-

performing the S&P 500 and vice versa. Dots represent Fed Days (red=hikes, blue=holds). Note

how weak both Consumer sectors have been, and the jump in Energy and Financials.

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17

Consumer Discretionary

-12

-9

-6

-3

0


Consumer Staples

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10


Energy

-4

0

4

8

12

16


Financials

-12

-9

-6

-3

0


Health Care

-2

0

2

4

6

8


Industrials

-2

0

2

4

6


Materials

-4

0

4

8

12


Technology

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5


Telecom Services

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

3


Utilities



• We conducted some in-depth analysis on sector advance/decline lines this week that you should

read if you missed it earlier in the week. Our Chart of the Day from Tuesday looked at the Energy

sector’s 10-Day A/D line specifically, while our B.I.G. Tips report on Wednesday looked at extreme

overbought A/D line readings for all sectors. (B.I.G. Tips available for Premium and Institutional

members only)

• Moving on, we wanted to quickly touch on post-Fed stock market performance given that we had a

Fed Day this past Wednesday in which rates were left unchanged.

• The chart below shows the S&P 500’s average change in the month after Fed Days since 1994 (the

Fed began publishing its rate decisions on the same day as its meetings in 1994). As shown, follow-

ing rate hikes or rate cuts, the S&P 500 has actually averaged declines over the next month, but

following no change in interest rate policy, the S&P has done very well over the next month with

an average gain of 0.90%.

• The second chart below shows average sector and asset class performance in the month after Fed

Days in which interest rates are left unchanged (as they were this Wednesday).

S&P 500 Avg. % Chg in Month After Fed Days Since 1994

-1.21

0.90

-0.58

0.38

-1.50

-1.00

-0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

Cut Held Raised All

Sectors/Asset Class 1-Month % Change After Fed Day Rate Holds

-0.05 -0.02

0.04

0.220.30 0.35 0.35

0.46

0.64

0.800.90 0.91

0.98 1.02 1.021.14 1.15 1.15

1.20

1.36 1.38

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

https://www.bespokepremium.com/chart-of-the-day/chart-of-the-day-energy-sector-retreating-from-extreme-overbought-levels/

https://www.bespokepremium.com/big-tips/b-i-g-tips-extreme-overbought-10-day-ad-readings-by-sector/



• As mentioned earlier, the S&P 500 is currently up

over 1% in the month of September.

• If the S&P finishes September up on the month, it

will be the index’s sixth straight monthly gain.

• The table at right looks at the S&P 500’s perfor-

mance in the month and three months after six-

month winning streaks.

• As shown, the index has historically averaged a

gain of 0.93% in the month after six-month win-

ning streaks with positive returns 69.2% of the

time. (This means the index registers a 7-month

winning streak 69% of the time once it makes it

to 6 months.)

• Over the next three months, the S&P has aver-

aged a gain of 3.76% with positive returns 84.6%

of the time.

• Compared to all one and three month average

returns, the market actually does much better

after six-month winning streaks. Any thought

that we’re “due for a decline” because of the win-

ning streak is misguided.

Month Next Month % Next 3 Mth %

Dec-28 5.71 4.85

Sep-35 7.51 15.88

Oct-36 0.29 3.13

Oct-42 -0.75 11.54

May-43 2.49 -2.07

Jan-46 -6.95 1.02

Dec-49 1.55 2.98

Feb-54 3.02 11.63

Aug-58 4.84 9.91

Apr-61 1.91 2.22

May-64 1.64 1.82

Apr-71 -4.16 -8.05

May-72 -2.18 1.42

Jun-75 -6.77 -11.89

Sep-80 1.60 8.21

Jan-83 1.90 13.16

Mar-86 -1.41 5.00

Apr-91 3.86 3.32

Feb-93 1.87 1.54

May-95 2.13 5.34

Apr-96 2.29 -2.17

Apr-98 -1.88 0.80

Aug-03 -1.19 4.98

Nov-06 1.26 0.44

Aug-09 3.57 7.35

Apr-13 2.08 5.52

Sep-17 ? ?

Average 0.93 3.76

Median 1.76 3.23

% Positive 69.2% 84.6%

Avg. All Periods 0.61 1.86

S&P 500 6-Mth Win Streaks



• This week the FOMC started the rolloff of the balance sheet as they discussed in June.

• We discuss the details later on; this is unlikely to have major market impact or be particularly rele-

vant to policy discussions going forward.

• Rates were left unchanged as expected. In the Summary of Economic Projections, the FOMC re-

vised lower estimates of the future unemployment rate, 2017 and 2018 inflation, and the Fed

Funds rate in 2019 and farther out.

• They emphasized that hurricane-driven spikes in inflation were likely but should be written down,

suggesting that the strong CPI report for August was an aberration and not fully satisfying given

their concerns for their inflation target.

• Growth estimates were revised up for 2017, which seems improbable to play out given the near-

term depressive effect of hurricanes on growth (they could drag Q3 GDP by as much as 1% QoQ

SAAR and this extremely busy season is definitely not over yet). Voters were unanimous in their

policy decision.

• The market interpreted this decision hawkishly, judging the unchanged policy rate expectations for

this year as a signal that the FOMC was committing to a hike despite the likelihood of weak growth

numbers in the next few months.

• Chair Yellen’s acknowledgement of financial conditions (a weak dollar, low credit spreads, and

strong equity performance) as factoring in the decision was also notable for its hawkishness.

• Financial conditions are suggesting the FOMC has ample room and indeed a need to hike.

• In our view, it’s hard to cast downward revisions to forecasted inflation, a very cautious growth

outlook, and downward revisions to the estimate of the neutral rate (including significant move-

ment lower in out-year dots, not just a few outliers) as hawkish.

• In short, we disagree with the market interpretation of the policy statement.

• Odds of a December move went from a coin flip to roughly 60% per Fed Funds Futures post-

meeting, but we expect incoming data to inform the FOMC’s December decision; it’s anything but a

done deal at this stage, and the market’s hawkish reaction was too aggressive in our view.



• Before we wrap up with the Fed, below we show an estimate of how the Fed’s balance sheet will

change based on the assumption that current trends (stable total assets, decline in excess reserves

of ~560mm per week, the pace since September 2014) continue and that the FOMC rolls off matur-

ing securities at the rate they say they intend to.

• That pace starts slowly at $10bn ($6bn UST, $4bn MBS) per month, rising by $10bn every three

months until peaking at $50bn per month.

• As shown in the chart below, assuming no major changes to policy, that would “rolloff” the last of

the QE portfolio in December 2021.

• We should note that the Fed may end up wanting to keep more excess reserves in the system than

pre-crisis, but this is what the roll-off would look like on autopilot.

Fed Balance Sheet Size, $ bn, 2003 - 2022, Under Current Rolloff Plans

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

Excess Reserves

Excess Reserves - Projected

Total FOMC Assets

Total FOMC Assets - Projected



• It was a positive day for economic data Thursday as all three major indicators released topped ex-

pectations.

• One of the better-than-expected reports was the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, which rebounded

after three straight months of declines.

• While economists were forecasting the headline print to come in at a level of 17.1, the actual read-

ing came in at 23.8.

• Looking at the components of the September report, the internals were generally strong.

• As shown in the table at right, 7 of the 9 components

rose sequentially while employment-related categories

were the only ones that were down.

• The biggest increase on the month was Prices Paid

(13.3), followed by Prices Received (9.3), New Orders

(9.1), and Shipments (8.4).

• One notable category was Unfilled Orders: at a level of

+17.0, the component registered its highest level since

August 1983 (chart below)! All

in all, a good report.

Philly Fed: General Business Conditions: 1980 - 2017

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

'80 '84 '88 '92 '96 '00 '04 '08 '12 '16

23.8

Recessions

Philly Fed Unfilled Orders: 1980 - 2017

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

'80 '84 '88 '92 '96 '00 '04 '08 '12 '16

17.0

Category 9/30/2017 8/31/2017 Change

General Business 23.8 18.9 4.9

New Orders 29.5 20.4 9.1

Shipments 37.8 29.4 8.4

Unfilled Orders 17.0 14.5 2.5

Delivery Time 14.5 10.5 4.0

Inventories -1.4 -6.1 4.7

Prices Paid 34.4 21.1 13.3

Prices Received 22.8 13.5 9.3

Number of Employees 6.6 10.1 -3.5

Average Workweek 11.9 18.8 -6.9

Philly Fed: Overall & Components



• After a one-week surge that took the weekly jobless claims print to just under 300K, this week saw

the second straight decline as first-time claims fell to 259K from last week’s reading of 282K.

• With claims coming in 43K below consensus expectations, this week’s reading was further below

expectations than for any other weekly print since April 2009.

• Holding below 300K this week, the streak of sub-300K readings has now extended itself to 133

weeks.

• One caveat we would mention here, though, is that according to the release, first-time claims in

Florida rose by just 5,133.

• Given the scope of the damage from Hurricane Irma, that seems low, but we will see if these read-

ings increase in the coming weeks.

• While claims fell on a week/week basis, the four-week moving average still increased by 6K to

268.75K for its third straight weekly increase.

• That’s the highest level for the four-week moving average since early June 2016 and is now more

than 33K above the cycle low of 235.5K from 18 weeks ago in mid-May.

Initial Jobless Claims (Seasonally Adjusted): 2005 - 2017

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

'05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17

Tho

usa

nd

s

259K

200

220

240

260

280

300

3/1 9/1 3/1 9/1Katrina Sandy

Four Week Count: 8/25/17 236

9/1/17 298

9/8/17 282

9/15/17 259

Average 268.75

Initial Jobless Claims (SA): 2005 - 2017 (Four Week Moving Average)

200

300

400

500

600

700

'05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17

Tho

usa

nd

s

268.75



• Despite a possible negative impact from Hurricane Harvey, both Housing Starts and Building Per-

mits for the month of August came in better than expected.

• As shown above, the beat in Building Permits was especially impressive as there hasn’t been a big-

ger ‘beat’ versus expectations since November 2015!

• Furthermore, this month’s better than expected report comes on the heels of July’s reports which

also exceeded expectations.

• How often do both Housing Starts and Building Permits exceed expectations for two straight

months? Not often.

• At least not in recent history; the last occurrence was nearly five years ago in October 2012.

• The table below breaks down this month’s report by region and size of unit.

• While overall housing starts were down this month, all of the weakness was in multi-family units

which were down 6.5% m/m and by nearly a quarter y/y.

• Single-family units, on the

other hand, rose 1.6% m/

m and are up over 17%

versus this point last

year.

• As a result of these

moves, even though over-

all Housing Starts are

down by nearly 150K

from their peak last Octo-

ber, single-family starts

are just 26K off their

peak.

• For Building Permits, it is

a similar story as single-

family starts are within

30K of their cycle peak,

while multi-family units

are down by over 160K.

Actual Estimate Diff.

Housing Starts 1,180 1,170 10

Building Permits 1,300 1,212 88

SAAR, '000s Best Reading Relative

to Expectations since

November 2015

8/31/17 7/31/17 8/31/16 M/M Y/Y

Housing Starts 1180 1190 1164 -0.8 1.4

-Single Units 851 838 727 1.6 17.1

-Multi Units 329 352 437 -6.5 -24.7

-Northeast 105 115 133 -8.7 -21.1

-Midwest 200 164 170 22.0 17.6

-South 563 611 562 -7.9 0.2

-West 312 300 299 4.0 4.3

Building Permits 1300 1230 1200 5.7 8.3

-Single Unit 800 812 743 -1.5 7.7

-Multi Family 500 418 457 19.6 9.4

-Northeast 107 123 117 -13.0 -8.5

-Midwest 185 170 192 8.8 -3.6

-South 646 623 606 3.7 6.6

-West 362 314 285 15.3 27.0

Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Levels.

Percent Change (%)Actual Level ('000s)

Housing Starts & Building Permits: August 2017



• On the prior page, we noted how uncommon back to back better than expected readings in both

reports have been in recent history.

• Strong economic data is obviously a positive for the economy, but here we wanted to illustrate

how housing data and the economic cycle have interacted with each other over time.

• The chart below shows historical levels of Housing Starts (on a 12-month average basis) going back

to 1967 with economic recessions shaded in gray.

• Looking at this chart, two things stand out.

• First, even after

more than eight

years of recovery,

current levels of

Housing Starts

are closer to lev-

els seen at the

depth of reces-

sions rather than

late in an eco-

nomic cycle.

• The second thing

that stands out is that ahead of every prior recession since 1967, Housing Starts peaked and began

to roll over well in advance of the economy’s peak.

• With current levels of Housing Starts right near their highs of the cycle, that would imply that any

possible recession would still be months out from here.

• Looking at the current period in more detail, the chart below shows the 12-month average of

Housing Starts and Building Permits going back to 2010.

• In this chart, you can see that average levels of Housing Starts, while not rolling over, are actually

showing some signs of leveling off in the last three months.

• Building Permits,

on the other

hand, continue to

march higher to

new cycle highs,

so that bodes

well for the fu-

ture.

Housing Starts (12 Month Average, mln): 1967 - 2017

0.5

0.7

0.9

1.1

1.3

1.5

1.7

1.9

2.1

2.3

2.5

'67 '72 '77 '82 '87 '92 '97 '02 '07 '12Recession Starts - Trailing 12 Months

Starts peaked well ahead of every prior recession.

Housing Starts & Building Permits (12 Month Average, mln): 2010 - 2017

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

'10 '12 '14 '16

Mil

lio

ns

Recession Starts - Trailing 12 Months Permits - Trailing 12 Months

New cycle highs in August.

Levelling Off.



• As mentioned earlier, trends in single-family Housing Starts and Building Permits both have shown

relative strength versus trends in multi-family units.

• Because single-family units tend to have more of an economic impact than multi-family units, this

is a positive signal.

• The 12-month averages for single-family Starts and Permits show this trend as both are continuing

to trend higher to their best levels of the cycle.

• Multi-Family units, however, aren’t looking nearly as positive with starts peaking back in February,

while Permits topped out all the way back in January 2016.

Multi Family Starts & Permits (12 Month Average, mln): 2010 - 2017

Single Family Starts & Permits (12 Month Average, mln): 2010 - 2017

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

'10 '12 '14 '16

Mil

lio

ns

Recession

Starts - Trailing 12 Months

Permits - Trailing 12 Months

...Both Rolling Over.

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

'10 '12 '14 '16

Mil

lio

ns

Recession

Starts - Trailing 12 Months

Permits - Trailing 12 Months

...Both Starts and Permits Stilll Very Strong.



• As shown below, the ratio between the monthly Leading and Coincident indicators series published

by the Conference Board has been a good historical indicator of recessions.

• Declines in the LEI/CEI ratio have been a necessary but not sufficient indicator of recession.

• Major tops in the ratio have occurred well in advance of every recession since the 1960s.

• Unfortunately for those bearish on the prospects for the US economy, the ratio made another new

high in August based on data reported this week. While that doesn’t mean a recession can’t hap-

pen in the medium term, it does suggest that risk of a recession in the near-term is extremely low.

• Looking at the historical pattern of LEI/CEI peaks

and the start of recessions, the data suggests that

it’s unrealistic to expect a recession to start within

6 months of a peak in the ratio.

• In other words, even if the ratio started drop-

ping next month, February would be the most ag-

gressive reasonable estimate for the start of a re-

cession.

• More plausible would be further out; for instance,

10 to 20 months would still be historically quick.

• In the last cycle, the lead-time was over 2 years,

and only the 1981 double-dip recession had a shorter lead time since the 1970s.

• On average, the LEI/CEI ratio peaks over 2 years ahead of recession and the median is 2 1/2 years.

• Based on the new expansion high today for the ratio and that data, we feel confident saying there’s

no material risk of a recession starting in the next 12 months and a low risk looking out over the

next two years.

• Given the historical relationship between bear markets and recessions (every bear market since

the start of the 1980s has come with a recession attached except the crash of 1987), that suggests

there’s not much risk of a bear market in the short-term either.

Leading/Coincident Indicator Ratio Not Signalling Recession Since 2007

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25

1.30

1.35

1.40Recession

LEI/CEI Ratio

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20Recession

LEI/CEI Ratio

Peak Date Recession Start Date Months

9/30/1959 4/30/1960 7

4/30/1966 12/31/1969 44

1/31/1973 11/30/1973 10

6/30/1977 1/31/1980 31

9/30/1980 7/31/1981 10

9/30/1987 7/31/1990 34

9/30/1997 3/31/2001 42

8/31/2005 12/31/2007 28

8/31/2017 ?

Average 26

Median 30

LEI/CEI Ratio Recession Indicator



• Below is a quick update on the weekly AAII (American Association of Individual Investors) bullish

and bearish sentiment readings. Neither bullish nor bearish sentiment moved much this week, and

bullish sentiment remains just barely above 40% — a level that has not been seen often over the

last couple of years.

• If you missed our Chart of the Day on Yale’s investor sentiment survey and our “Irrational Exuber-

ance” indicator, make sure to give it a read!

AAII Bullish Sentiment: 2009 - 2017

AAII Bearish Sentiment: 2009 - 2017

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

600

1000

1400

1800

2200

2600

1/09 1/10 1/11 1/12 1/13 1/14 1/15 1/16 1/17

S&P 500 (Left Axis)

Bearish Sentiment (Right Axis)

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

600

1000

1400

1800

2200

2600

1/09 1/10 1/11 1/12 1/13 1/14 1/15 1/16 1/17

S&P 500 (Left Axis)

Bullish Sentiment (Right Axis)

40.14

27.21

https://www.bespokepremium.com/chart-of-the-day/chart-of-the-day-irrational-exuberance-will-cooler-heads-prevail/



• On page twelve we touched on the S&P 500’s potential six-month winning streak if it can finish

higher in September.

• Below we show how the S&P has historically performed in the final three months of the year based

on how it has performed over the first nine months of the year.

• Since 1928, when the S&P 500 has been up between 0-10% YTD through September, the index has

averaged a gain of 5.42% over the final three months of the year.

• When the S&P has been up between 10-20% YTD through September (it’s up 11% this year), the

index has averaged a gain of 4.79% over the final three months of the year.

• Up anywhere between 0-20% through September has been the sweet spot for fourth quarter re-

turns. When the S&P has been down YTD through September, it has averaged a decline in Q4.

When the index has been up 20%+ through September, it has averaged a small gain of 0.95% in Q4.

S&P 500 YTD % Chg Thru September: Rest of Year Average %

0.95

4.795.42

-0.42-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Up 20%+ Up 10%-20% Up 0-10% DownAvg

% C

hg

Last

3 M

on

ths

of Y

ear

% Chg Thru September

S&P 500 up 11%

YTD in 2017.



• Our trading range screen for the 30 largest stocks in the Nasdaq highlights some of the underper-

formance that we’ve seen out of Tech so far in September. The vaunted “FAANG” stocks (FB,

AAPL, AMZN, NFLX, GOOGL) have been either flat or down this month, and 3 of the 5 are currently

below their 50-day moving averages.

• Given the pullback for FAANG and the tendency for the market to do well in Q4 of years like 2017,

now isn’t the worst time to put some money to work in them if you’ve been on the sidelines.

YTD

Ticker Name Sector Price % Chg Current 1 Wk Ago

AAPL Apple Inc Technology 150.93 30.76 OS N

GOOGL Alphabet Inc Technology 946.71 18.91 N N

MSFT Microsoft Corp Technology 74.30 19.33 N OB

FB Facebook Inc Technology 170.47 47.74 N N

AMZN Amazon.com Cons. Discret. 958.95 27.89 N N

CMCSA Comcast Corp Cons. Discret. 37.54 9.46 OS OS

INTC Intel Corp Technology 37.17 2.04 OB OB

CSCO Cisco Systems Technology 33.27 10.29 OB OB

AMGN Amgen Inc Health Care 185.13 26.91 OB OB

CELG Celgene Corp Health Care 142.37 24.03 OB OB

NVDA NVIDIA Corp Technology 180.19 68.14 OB OB

GILD Gilead Sciences Health Care 82.68 15.89 OB OB

CHTR Charter Cons. Discret. 359.72 24.93 OS N

AVGO Broadcom Ltd Technology 239.35 35.44 OS N

KHC Kraft Heinz Cons. Staples 78.73 -10.63 OS OS

PCLN Priceline Cons. Discret. 1863.06 26.92 N N

WBA Walgreens Cons. Staples 78.15 -5.67 OS OB

TXN Texas Instruments Technology 88.30 20.71 OB OB

BIDU Baidu Inc Technology 240.89 45.84 OB OB

SBUX Starbucks Corp Cons. Discret. 55.12 -0.90 N N

NFLX Netflix Inc Cons. Discret. 186.67 51.44 OB N

VOD Vodafone Group Telecom 28.61 17.19 N OS

QCOM QUALCOMM Inc Technology 52.15 -20.07 N N

ADBE Adobe Systems Technology 148.22 43.86 N OB

PYPL PayPal Holdings Technology 65.04 64.62 OB OB

COST Costco Cons. Staples 161.08 4.33 OB OB

BIIB Biogen Inc Health Care 314.59 21.34 OB OB

JD JD.com Inc Cons. Discret. 42.24 66.43 N N

TSLA Tesla Inc Cons. Discret. 357.03 65.97 N OB

MDLZ Mondelez Intl Cons. Staples 40.28 -9.29 OS OS

Trading Range

Bespoke's Custom Trading Range Screen: Nasdaq 30

Measures the distance (in standard deviations) that each stock is trading above or below its 50-day moving

average. When the circle is in the non-shaded zone it is neutral (N). When it is in the light or dark red zones

it is considered overbought (OB), while the light or dark green zones indicate an oversold (OS) stock. For each

stock, the tail next to the circle represents the level it was at one week ago, while the color indicates whether

the stock has moved up (green) or down (red) relative to its range.

Trading Range

OS N OB



• If you missed it yesterday, we published commentary for each of our Model Portfolio holdings.

This is the best way to get an understanding of our reasoning for holding each name.

• Below are three Model Portfolio holdings with chart patterns we wanted to point out.

• Note that Volkswagen (VLKAY) has finally broken out above prior highs. While it is overbought in

the near term, this breakout is bullish for its long-term trend in our view.

• AAWW continues to look strong as well, while recent Model Portfolio addition HTZ is trending per-

fectly within a short-term uptrend channel.

https://www.bespokepremium.com/get/Bespoke_Model_Portfolio_Update_092117.pdf



• Earnings season doesn’t begin until early October, but there are quite a few companies reporting

next week that should be on your radar.

• Please use our Interactive Earnings Calendar to find the expected earnings report dates for any

stocks you’re interested in.

• Below is a list of the companies (pulled from our Calendar) set to report through 9/27 next week.

• Key names to watch include Darden (DRI) on Tuesday morning, Micron (MU) and Nike (NKE) on

Tuesday afternoon, and Cintas (CTAS) on Wednesday afternoon.

• Nike is a Dow stock that typically does well on earnings. Historically it has averaged a gain of 1.63%

on its earnings reaction days. Given the stock’s recent pullback, we’ll be watching this report close-

ly to see if it’s a stock worth going long again. We love the company — we just want to get the tim-

ing of an entry point right.

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive-earnings-calendar/

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive-earnings-calendar/



• On Thursday next week we’ll hear from Accenture (ACN), Blackberry (BBRY), ConAgra (CON), Rite

Aid (RAD), CalAmp (CAMP), and KB Home (KBH).

• Of the stocks reporting next Thursday, ACN and CAG are the only ones that have a long history of

doing well on their earnings reaction days. The rest of the important names have actually typically

done poorly.

• With today’s release of Apple’s new phones and watches, be sure to read this post we did on

Google search trends for the iPhone 8 and X compared to searches for the 7.

• We also did a post today on technical analysis and how they don’t always work like they’re sup-

posed to!

• On the next four pages we provide links to all of our historical Bespokecast podcasts as well as our

model portfolios.

• Next week we’re excited to interview Michelle Leder from Footnoted for the next episode of Be-

spokecast. Be on the lookout!

• Have a great weekend.

https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/iphone-search-trends/

https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/technicals-always-dont-work-out-the-way-you-would-expect/

https://www.footnoted.com/



Before saying goodbye for the week, we wanted to make sure you've seen (or heard in this case) all of

Bespoke’s podcasts. The podcast is called Bespokecast, and in each episode Bespoke Macro Strategist

George Pearkes has an in-depth conversation with a special guest from the world of finance. Below

and on the next page is a list of all of the podcasts that we’ve released so far, and you can listen to any

of them now by clicking on the links. If you’ve yet to listen, we highly recommend doing so!

• Episode 1 - Mark Dow - 10/26/2016

IMF and hedge fund veteran Mark Dow gives us a deep dive into how he looks at markets from a

macro and risk management perspective.

• Episode 2 - Liz Ann Sonders - 11/15/2016

Charles Schwab Chief Investment Strategist Liz Ann Sonders helps us think about the election, ap-

plying data to markets, and the outlook for the economy, as well as the challenges of work-life bal-

ance in the finance industry.

• Episode 3 - Katie Stockton - 12/6/2016

BTIG Chief Technical Strategist Katie Stockton shares her career experience, deep insight into her

technical approach, and the philosophy of technical investing versus fundamental approaches.

• Episode 4 - Joe Weisenthal - 12/20/2016

Joe Weisenthal, host of Bloomberg TV’s “What Did You Miss” talks about his career covering mar-

kets and how to think about modern financial media.

• Episode 5 - Meb Faber - 1/18/2017

Chief Investment Officer of Cambria Investment Management Meb Faber talks with us about his

research on asset allocation, performance of his ETFs, and overall investing philosophy.

• Episode 6 - Rob Bartenstein - 2/9/2017

CEO of Kestra Financial Rob Bartenstein sits down with us to talk about the shift from traditional

wirehouse brokerage to independent advisors.

• Episode 7 - Helene Meisler - 3/8/2017

Widely-followed technical analyst and investor Helene Meisler helps us understand her sometimes

contrarian and always fascinating approach to price action and figuring out where markets go next.

• Episode 8 - PJ Gorynski - 3/23/2017

Bespoke Market Intelligence co-founder PJ Gorynski gives us insight into what surveys of consum-

ers reveal about a business’ prospects.

• Episode 9 - Charles Kirk - 4/15/2017

Investor and market strategist Charles Kirk walks us through his process, a fusion of technical anal-

ysis, stock screening, economic analysis, and market sentiment gauges.

• Episode 10 - Josh Brown - 4/23/2017

Ritholtz Wealth Management CEO, Fast Money Halftime contributor, and market commentator

Josh Brown discusses the investing business, the Ritholtz approach, and the world of social media.

https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/bespokecast-now-available-on-itunes-googleplay-overcast-and-more/

https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/bespokecast-episode-2-liz-ann-sonders-now-available-on-itunes-googleplay-stitcher-and-more/

https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/bespokecast-episode-3-katie-stockton-now-available-on-itunes-googleplay-stitcher-and-more/

https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/bespokecast-episode-4-joe-weisenthal-now-available-on-itunes-googleplay-stitcher-and-more/

https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/bespokecast-episode-5-meb-faber-now-available-on-itunes-googleplay-stitcher-and-more/

https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/bespokecast-episode-6-rob-bartenstein-now-available-on-itunes-googleplay-stitcher-and-more/

https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/bespokecast-episode-7-helene-meisler-now-available-on-itunes-googleplay-stitcher-and-more/

https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/bespokecast-episode-8-pj-gorynski-now-available-on-itunes-googleplay-stitcher-and-more/

https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/bespokecast-episode-9-charles-kirk-now-available-on-itunes-googleplay-stitcher-and-more/

https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/bespokecast-episode-10-josh-brown-now-available-on-itunes-googleplay-stitcher-and-more/



• Episode 11 - Pete Najarian - 5/9/2017

Pete Najarian has been trading options since the 1980s, and we had an awesome conversation

with him about playing football, trading, and the role of the media in the markets.

• Episode 12 - Marc Cohodes - 6/7/2017

Former hedge funder and committed short seller Marc Cohodes gives us incredible insight into his

process of identifying companies and how to manage risk from the bearish side of the market.

• Episode 13 - Louis Navellier - 6/20/2017

Founder of Navellier & Associates Louis Navellier has been doing quantitative work since the late

1970s. We go deep on market structure, the role of central banks, and the US economy.

• Episode 14 - Herb Greenberg - 7/14/2017

Pacific Square Research co-founder Herb Greenberg talks about his unusual path from the world of

business journalism to in-depth single stock equity research.

• Episode 15- Karthik Sankaran - 8/1/2017

Eurasia Group Director of Global Strategy Karthik Sankaran discusses global financial imbalances,

the Eurozone’s “immune system,” Angloskepticism, and what it’s like to speak five languages.

Released every two to four weeks, Bespokecast is an hour-long conversation with some of the sharpest

minds in finance, covering a wide range of topics related to the industry. You can find all the episodes

on iTunes (link),Google Play (link), Overcast (link), Stichr (link), as well as the list above.

https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/bespokecast-episode-11-pete-najarian-now-available-on-itunes-googleplay-stitcher-and-more/

https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/bespokecast-episode-12-marc-cohodes-now-available-on-itunes-googleplay-stitcher-and-more/

https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/bespokecast-episode-13-louis-navellier-now-available-on-itunes-googleplay-stitcher-and-more/

https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/bespokecast-episode-14-herb-greenberg-now-available-on-itunes-googleplay-stitcher-and-more/

https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/bespokecast-episode-15-karthik-sankaran-now-available-on-itunes-googleplay-stitcher-and-more/

https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/bespokecast/id1168598921?mt=2

https://play.google.com/music/listen?u=0#/ps/I6ddawwkqrjgsqrwfdzsrwlk4pq

https://overcast.fm/itunes1168598921/bespokecast

http://www.stitcher.com/podcast/bespoke-investment-group/bespokecast?refid=stpr



Stock Company

Current

Price

Portfolio

Weight (%)

Entry

Price

Stop

Price Date Added % Change

Consumer Discret. 11.5

TSLA Tesla 355.31 4.6 384.69 338.00 9/18/17 -7.6

VLKAY Volkswagen ADR 34.54 4.9 32.34 28.40 5/5/17 6.8

WYNN Wynn Resorts 145.52 6.6 67.03 119.00 1/4/16 117.1

0.0

Energy 0.0

Financials 10.4

BLK Blackrock 433.55 5.0 380.89 364.75 1/24/17 13.8

BRK/B Berkshire Hathaway 181.36 5.3 135.70 159.25 3/1/16 33.6

Health Care 10.5

IBB Biotech ETF 329.81 5.1 306.67 276.00 6/20/17 7.5

ZTS Zoetis 64.19 5.4 54.24 54.30 3/28/17 18.3

Industrials 13.9

AAWW Atlas Air Worldwide 67.80 5.0 66.72 54.90 9/12/17 1.6

ESLT Elbit Systems 143.94 6.0 106.14 117.00 1/24/17 35.6

HTZ Hertz Global 23.69 2.9 20.85 15.05 9/18/17 13.6

Materials 5.1

SQM SQM de Chile 55.37 5.1 28.43 35.50 12/30/16 94.8

Technology 19.8

ADBE Adobe 148.28 6.3 95.69 138.00 4/18/16 55.0

CHKP Check Point Software 111.52 5.1 107.04 91.50 8/9/17 4.2

TWTR Twitter 17.55 4.0 18.70 15.25 9/8/16 -6.2

QCOM QUALCOMM 52.11 4.4 53.24 48.75 2/1/17 -2.1

Telecom Services 0.0

Utilities 0.0

ETFs 0.0

Cash 24.2

Performance (%):

Since Inception1 YTD = Recently Added

S&P 500 64.6 11.6 = Changed Stop Price/

Model Portfolio 124.2 15.6 Lowered Weighting

vs. S&P 500 59.6 4.0

1Bespoke's Model Portfolio began with an initial value of $100,000 on 5/29/07.

Consumer Staples

Bespoke Model Portfolio: 9/22/17



Ticker Name

Current

Price

Current

Yield (%)

Most

Recent

Dividend ($)

Recent/Next

Ex Date

Portfolio

Weight (%)

Entry

Price

Stop

Price

Date

Added

%

Change

Consumer Discretionary 11.9BBY Best Buy 53.69 2.53 0.34 9/18 3.5 62.00 49.95 8/28/17 -13.4

PII Polaris 107.86 2.15 0.58 8/30 4.5 94.38 81.25 8/28/17 14.3

TIF Tiffany 87.38 2.29 0.50 9/19 3.9 89.24 76.50 8/28/17 -2.1

Consumer Staples 12.1ADM ADM 43.45 2.95 0.32 8/15 4.1 43.80 36.95 8/22/16 -0.8

BG Bunge 71.14 2.59 0.46 11/17 3.9 74.99 64.49 8/28/17 -5.1

WMT Wal-Mart 79.46 2.57 0.51 12/7 4.0 72.70 61.95 8/22/16 9.3

Energy 4.7VLO Valero Energy 74.06 3.78 0.70 8/7 4.7 68.52 59.75 8/28/17 8.1

Financials 12.9BAC Bank of America 24.98 1.92 0.12 8/30 4.4 23.64 20.60 8/28/17 5.7

C Citigroup 71.35 1.79 0.32 8/3 4.3 46.66 38.25 8/22/16 52.9

TRV Travelers 121.82 2.36 0.72 9/7 4.2 123.10 107.50 8/28/17 -1.0

Health Care 16.6AMGN Amgen 185.43 2.48 1.15 8/15 4.3 171.79 155.00 8/28/17 7.9

BDX Becton, Dickinson & Co 192.37 1.52 0.73 9/7 4.0 199.67 178.50 8/28/17 -3.7

DGX Quest Diagnostics 102.38 1.76 0.45 10/2 3.9 107.06 97.12 8/28/17 -4.4

UNH UnitedHealth 193.10 1.55 0.75 9/7 4.3 120.79 167.70 7/22/15 59.9

Industrials 4.1RSG Republic Services 66.25 2.08 0.35 9/29 4.2 53.14 53.00 11/18/15 24.7

UTX United Technologies 114.80 2.44 0.70 8/16 4.1 115.44 104.50 8/28/17 -0.6

Materials 8.5EMN Eastman Chemical 86.22 2.37 0.51 9/14 4.2 85.36 74.75 8/28/17 1.0

SMG Scotts Miracle-Gro 96.57 2.20 0.53 8/23 4.3 59.76 68.50 7/22/15 61.6

Real Estate 0.0HCN Welltower 70.93 4.91 0.87 8/4 4.0 71.13 64.90 8/28/17 -0.3

Technology 12.6AAPL Apple 151.55 1.66 0.63 8/10 4.0 161.27 138.50 8/28/17 -6.0

FIS Fidelity National 92.87 1.25 0.29 9/14 4.2 91.65 83.50 8/28/17 1.3

INTC Intel 37.06 2.94 0.27 8/3 4.4 34.65 30.75 8/28/17 7.0

Telecom Services 0

Utilities 4.0XLU Utilities Select 53.28 3.13 0.42 6/16 4.0 55.02 50.64 8/28/17 -3.1

Cash 4.2

Performance1:

Since Inception1 QTD YTD

S&P 500 34.80 3.67 13.35 = Recently Added

Model Portfolio 33.43 -0.12 0.33

Bespoke Dividend Income Model Portfolio: 9/22/17

1 Bespoke's Dividend Income Model Portfolio began with an

initial value of $100,000 on 7/22/14.



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