Astronomy, Fallacies, & 2012 Doomsday Prediction

Such a weak tidal force will have no detectable effect whatsoever on either the Earth or Sun!

Aligned Planets

Doomsday scenarios also claim that the planets will align and their tidal forces will cause destructiveearthquakes. A book called The Jupiter Effect made similar claims in the 1970s. There were noproblems then either.

December 21, 2012 has no more significance in the Mayan calendar than midnight December 31,1999 has in the modern calendar.

Astronomical Urban Myths about December 21, 2012

Doomsday predictions that the world will end on December 21, 2012 in many 2012 themed booksand the movie 2012 are based on urban myths about astronomy.

Tidal http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Limousine forces from astronomical objects depend on their massand inversely on the cube of their distance. This dependence allows a simple order of magnitudeestimation of the ratio of the tidal force from the galactic center to that from the Sun.

For an estimate, it suffices to use 8 light minutes (about 500 light seconds) as the distance to theSun and about 30,000 light years (9E11 light seconds) as the distance to the galactic center.Assuming that the galactic mass (about 100 billion times the Sun's mass) is concentrated at thegalactic center, overestimates the tidal force from the galactic center and simplifies the calculation.

Astronomers have identified the center of the Milky Way galaxy as the object Sgr A*. Astronomicalcatalogs list the declination of Sgr A* as very nearly 29 degrees south. Because the Sun cannot getthis far south the Sun cannot align with the galactic center.

Tidal Forces from Galactic Center

Even if the Sun could align with the galactic center, the tidal effects would be completely negligible.

Computing planetary positions on December Limo Rental 21, 2012 with a good planetarium orephemeris program, shows that the planets will have different positions. They will not align. If theydid, the tidal forces from the planets are more than from the galactic center, but still much less thanfrom the Sun and Moon.

Many recent books and the major Hollywood movie, 2012, purvey alleged Mayan predictions that theworld will end on the 2012 winter solstice, December 21, 2012. These claims intertwine the Mayancalendar with some rather dubious astronomy.Mayan Calendar

Doomsday predictions based on the Mayan calendar are not being made by present day Mayans. Are

the people writing 2012 end of the world scenarios based on the Mayan calendar actuallyknowledgeable about Mayan culture?

To measure celestial positions, astronomers project latitude and longitude into the sky and call themdeclination and right ascension. The Sun's declination is about 23.5 degrees south on the wintersolstice and cannot go further south.

Many people make considerable money spreading panic by preying on those who lack scientificknowledge. Learn about real science; keep your money.

Further Reading

Krupp, EC. "The Great 2012 Scare" Sky and Telescope, November, 2009.

Doing the math, the tidal force from the galactic center is about 2E17 (200000000000000000) timesweaker than the tidal force from the Sun.

Like the modern calendar, the Mayan calendarcontains cycles of various lengths. OnDecember 12, 2012 multiple Mayan cycles endand restart at the same time. The most recentanalogy in the modern calendar was midnightDecember 31, 1999, when the day, year,decade, century, and millennium cycles endedand started over on January 1, 2000. Astutereaders will recall that despite all the fuss theworld didn't end then either.

Will the world end December 21, 2012? No!

Doomsday purveyors claim on the 2012 winter solstice the Earth, Sun, and center of the Milky Waygalaxy will align, so the Sun eclipses the galactic center. Furthermore doomsday purveyors claimthat tidal forces from this alignment will cause severe disruptive earthquakes to end the world. Thesame tidal forces acting on the Sun will trigger severe solar storms devastating Earth. The planets inthe solar system will also allegedly align on December 21, 2012.

Sun Will Not Eclipse Galactic Center

Earth's rotational axis tilts about 23.5 degrees. The December winter solstice occurs when Earth isat the point in its orbit where the southern hemisphere most directly points towards the Sun. TheSun is then directly overhead as seen from Earth at 23.5 degrees south latitude, the Tropic ofCapricorn. The Sun cannot appear further south in the sky.