At 1NC Advantages

AT Advantages for 1NC

Asia PivotThere is no risk of an Asian conflictChina Post 11 (The China Post news staff ldquoArmed conflict for control of South China Sea unlikelyrdquo June 23 2011 httpwwwchinapostcomtweditorialworld-issues20110623307134Armed-conflicthtm)gingE

Taiwan isnt much concerned though tensions are mounting over the Spratlys The Ministry of National Defense denied on Saturday that theres a plan to provide Hai-ou (Sea Gull) missile boats and M41A3 tanks to the coast guard personnel stationed on Taiping

Island Nor will the ROC Navy stage a maneuver at the end of this month an MND spokesman pointed out Theres no need whatsoever to take any such action because its just a Hanoi-fomented war scare Taiwan withdrew marines from Taiping in 1999

and coast guard personnel replaced them We are positive that no armed conflict will occur over the Spratlys Despite the hollow saber-rattling Vietnam and the Philippines who claim uninhabited isles of the archipelago have no stomach for a war against Taiwan and China The Vietnamese were defeated by China in 1974 and ousted from the Paracel Islands and Xisha-jundao (West Sand Islands) that lie south of Hainan and quite near Danang in southern Vietnam A brief sea encounter took place between the two countries over the Spratlys a few years ago and the Vietnamese were trounced In land battles the Vietnamese may outdo the Peoples Liberation Army and in fact they did in a brief war with the PRC under Deng Xiaoping in 1989 Hanoi knows full well its no match for the PLA Navy So the Vietnamese wish to draw the United States into any possible fray with Beijing At one time Washington was willing to back up Hanoi US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said so though not in so many words at an ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) meeting in Hanoi earlier this year But Washington has changed its mind A US State Department spokesman told the press not long ago that the United States did not support the Vietnamese sea maneuver which isnt conducive to the reduction of tensions in the region

Now that the US has refused to side with Vietnam in any armed conflict with China the only thing Hanoi can and should do is scale down its defense buildup Its planning to buy six Kirov submarines and 12 Sukhoi 30 fighters from Russia Israel is said to be selling short-range ballistic missiles to Vietnam Theres no reason why such expensive military hardware should be acquired for a shadowboxing match with China Instead Hanoi should spend its hard currency to promote economic growth and enable the Vietnamese people to live better

Chinarsquos peaceful and wonrsquot escalate the conflictRing 12 - Lieutenant Commander in the US Navy (Andrew July 4 2012 ldquoA US South China Sea Perspective Just Over the Horizonrdquo Pp 41-42 projectsiqharvardedusitesprojectsiqharvardedufilesfellowsfilesringpdf)gingE

China has maintained peaceful relations with the fourteen countries it shares land borders with for over thirty years This peaceful environment helped Chinarsquos rise It allowed a majority of Chinarsquos resources to be poured into economic development versus defense infrastructure and encouraged foreign investment and trade Chinarsquos continued ascendancy will depend in part on Chinese leadersrsquo ability to maintain this peaceful environment and effectively address the emerging domestic issues (eg the demands of

the rising middle class entitlements and its aging population) With its growing sphere of influence comes a need and some may say a responsibility to maintain a peaceful environment within the South China Sea as well China realizes that needless aggressive military action against its Southeast Asian neighbors will likely draw world powers into the South China Sea dispute Michael Auslin Director of Japanese Studies at the American Enterprise Institute astutely described US-Sino relations China and the United States do not pose existential threats to each other do not contend over territory and do not have irreconcilable ideological ambitions China seeks to restore its national honor build its economy and exercise a regional and global influence that is normal for a large and culturally capacious country70 While the number of similarities far outweighs the differences in US and Chinese goals for the Pacific including the South China Sea the United States often describes China as that of a future adversary or near-peer

competitor rather than a potential partner in the geopolitical and economic spheres The US and Chinarsquos strategic aims in the Pacific can be complimentary and benefit the countries of Southeast Asia but this will require a solid relationship between the nationsrsquo militaries Admiral Samuel Locklear III Commander of the US Pacific Command highlighted the danger in a lack of communication when stating ldquoThe last thing you want to have is miscalculation between large militariesrdquo 71

BiodiversityBiggest cause of biodiversity loss is global warmingCraig 12 (Robin Kundis Craig is Professor of Law and Associate Dean for Environmental Programs Florida State University College of Law Tallahassee FL) published 051812 ldquoMarine Biodiversity Climate Change and Governance ofpara the Oceansrdquo Diversity 2012 ISSN 1424-2818 Volume 4 224-238

As studies of the Mediterranean Sea indicate [2] climate change poses the newest and in many ways most pervasive threat to marine biodiversity Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere set in motion geophysical and geochemical processes that are both warming the sea and acidifying it [1] with consequent direct and indirect impacts on marine life According to the Census of Marine Life ldquochanges in ocean temperatures currents and

chemistry would redistribute much marine life Census researchers predict a decline in diversity in a tropical ocean that becomes warmer and an increase of diversity at latitudes of about 50 to 70 degrees in both hemispheresrdquo [1] (p 25) Changes in ocean temperature in fact have joined overfishing and habitat destruction as one of the three most powerful causes of decreases in marine speciesrsquo abundance [1] (p 31)

Conservation fails to solve for biodiversity-plan is insufficientGolden 14 (Abigail correspondent for Daily Beast 62314 httpwwwthedailybeastcomarticles20140623republicans-obama-s-ocean-protection-plan-evidence-of-imperial-presidencyhtml)

Currently about 3 percent of the USrsquo tuna catch in the western and southern Pacific comes from the area now under protection according to Pew Charitable Trusts Congressman Hastings has criticized Obama for closing this area to tuna fishing cautioning that this move will ldquomake the US tuna fleet even less viable meaning that in the not-too-distant future all of Americarsquos tuna will be caught by foreign vesselsrdquo Paul Dalzell a senior scientist with the Western and Central Pacific Regional Fisheries Management Council echoed this industry-centric approach ldquoThe islands [in the reserve] already have 50-nautical-mile boundaries around them to protect all the coral reef and shallow water habitats so theyrsquore more than adequately protected already rdquo Dalzell told The Daily Beast But for migratory species like tuna he argues large-scale ocean reserves have little conservation value since tuna simply swim beyond the boundaries of the closed areas to be caught by other fleets The reserve ldquohas no major conservation benefits will penalize US fishermen and therersquos no net gainrdquo Dalzell continued Itrsquos worth noting that Pew Charitable Trusts which works on ocean conservation issues has condemned the Western and Central Pacific Regional Fisheries Management Council for its poor fisheries practices which it claims are hastening overfishing in the Pacific region

Study shows marine reserves alone donrsquot solve biodiversity ndash they donrsquot address the ldquobottom-uprdquo processes that lead to species extinctionJones et al 4 (Geoffrey P Mark I McCormick Maya Srinivasan and Janelle V Eagle Researchers of School of Marine Biology and Aquaculture ldquoCoral decline threatens fish biodiversity in marine reservesrdquo May 18 2004)

The dramatic change in the abundance of almost all species indicates a phase-shift in reef fish community structure in response to habitat degradation and the increasing dominance of a small proportion of the original species pool The catastrophic decline in the abundance of 50 of the species was not predicted from the initial snapshot of their ecology because it affected far more than just coral-feeding or coral-dwelling fishes (Fig 1)para An analysis of fish settlement sites provided the most likely explanation for the community-wide change Species varied on a continuum of those that only ever settled onto live coral substrata to those that never settled onto coral (Fig 4) About 65 of fish species settled onto live coral in proportions significantly greater than expected because of the average coverage of live coral at these times Furthermore the magnitude of change in fish abundance was inversely correlated with the proportion of juveniles found settling on live coral (r = ndash057 P lt 005) With a few exceptions species that mainly settle into live coral declined and those largely recruiting to noncoral substrata increased in abundancepara Relationship between the direction and magnitude of change in fish abundance between 1997 and 2003 and the proportion of all juveniles observed to be associated with live coral at settlement Settlement data

were collected in 1999 and 2000 when the para Reef fish communities may be more contingent on their underlying habitat than has previously been considered Our data suggests that this dependence arises through habitat-limited recruitment (16 21) although adult mortality through declining food and shelter may also be important The impact on species in reef fish families less reliant on coral may be correspondingly less extreme (eg Lethrinidae and

Lutjanidae) However this cannot be confirmed until we know more about the settlement site preferences in these groups The impact on small specialized families (eg Gobiidae and Carancanthidae) may be even more devastating Global extinction may be imminent for some coral-dwelling gobies with restricted geographic ranges (22) The entire caracanthid family is comprised of only two obligate coral-dwelling species (Fig 1) both of which are now extremely rare at our study sitespara The magnitude of the decline in coral cover in Kimbe Bay is not atypical of other geographic locations where coral has also been largely replaced by turfing algae (1ndash5) The impacts of coral-algal phase-shifts on fish communities in other regions may have been similar However although short-term effects on coral-feeding fishes have been noted (23) the long-term effects on reef fish communities have not previously been described Our results suggest that reefs without corals will no longer support diverse fish faunas but rather will be numerically dominated by a small subset of species preferring algal or rubble substratapara Although there is considerable potential for recovery from local

disturbance through larval dispersal the spatial extent of habitat devastation appears to be expanding rather than contracting (4 5) If this trend cannot be reversed by management actions species with restricted dispersal or small geographic ranges will be threatened by extinction (24ndash26) Although there is a large body of evidence that indicates that marine reserves

can be an effective management strategy for protecting marine biodiversity (6ndash8) there is a growing recognition that such areas cannot protect reefs from large-scale pollution or global warming (4 27ndash30) Thus although marine reserves are necessary to control the ldquotop-downrdquo impact of human predation they must be combined with management strategies that fundamentally address ldquobottom-uprdquo processes that appear to be a more likely path to extinction

Marine reserves donrsquot help biodiversity and even have negative impacts for biodiversity ndash their studies are flawedHilborn 4-12-14 (Ray Marine biologist fisheries scientist and professor of aquatic and fishery science ldquoProtecting Marine Biodiversity with lsquoNewrsquo Conservationrdquo The Nature Conservancy April 12 2014 httpblognatureorgscience20140412nature-longread-protecting-marine-biodiversity-new-conservation-ray-hilborn accessed 62414)

The protected-area approach in marine conservation has two major disadvantages The first problem is effort displacement When an area is closed to fishing the vessels move elsewhere adding fishing pressure to some areas that potentially equals or outweighs the benefits seen in the protected areas (Pastoors et al 2000) Hamilton et al (2010) found that abundance of target species declined outside reserves and

increased inside reserves yielding no net increase in abundance The second biodiversity problem is a reduction in

the total sustainable yield of fish stocks when marine reserves are large This loss will almost certainly be made up by some other form of food production with negative biodiversity

consequences (Hilborn 2013) At the extreme if lost fish production is compensated by cutting rainforest to grow crops or cattle we can be very sure that the total biodiversity consequences will be negative

Maintenance Issue Energy Use Costly and Enviro RiskTin et al lsquo09 [Tina freelance environmental consultant who has been working on climate change renewable energy and Antarctic environmental issues Masters in Engineering and a PhD in Geophysics

she started her career by writing scientific articles on climate change and the impacts of human activities on the Antarctic environment Energy efficiency and renewable energy under extreme conditions Case studies from Antarctica Renewable Energy Renewable Energy An International Journal 1014 httpwwwasocorgstoragedocumentsMeetingsATCMXXXIIItin_et_alpdf] Yi

In this article we focus on energy use in Antarctica associated with science and its supporting logistical activities At research stations

electricity generators provide the energy needed for science equipment lighting space heating water pumping and purification and waste systems Gasoline diesel and jet fuel are also used to power aircraft ships boats and land based

vehicles Many Antarctic stations are isolated and inaccessible for nine months of the Antarctic winter due to sea-ice cover and a single ship visit each year is often the only opportunity to resupply the stations with food equipment and fuel A few stations have also been constructed inland over 1000 km away from the coast In some cases the resupply of fuel equipment and personnel is performed by overland vehicles which undertake roundtrip voyages of 2ndash3 weeks at a time For example USrsquos Amundsen-Scott South Pole station which is located far inland has until recently been resupplied completely by aircraft from McMurdo station which is situated on the coast This has resulted in the price of fuel being more than seven times higher at South Pole than at McMurdo [3]

Transporting fuel and oil to Antarctica is therefore a costly and sometimes risky exercise Fuel spills have occurred in the past due to the particular difficulties in pumping fuel ashore and the fragility of the bulk fuel tanks and fittings in the frigid temperatures although the use of double skinned fuel tanks and improved safety procedures has greatly reduced the problem The fuel requirements of a research station range from several hundred thousand to several million liters per year depending on the activities the length of the open season staff size and the diligence of onsite personnel Most stations have been designed to accommodate up to approximately 50 people while the larger stations can accommodate 100ndash200 people the largest permanent station in Antarctica USrsquos McMurdo station has power requirements of 16000 MWhyr to provide for a peak population of 1000 people in the summer and a winter population of 250 (See Fig 3) McMurdo also serves as the primary logistics hub of the US Antarctic Program where multiple small research camps are originated and supplied by air or overland At McMurdo nearly 5 million liters of fuel are used annually for electricity production and additional fuel is needed for heating [3] The Australian stations Casey Mawson and Davis are also relatively large stations serving as logistical hubs for field activities in the East Antarctic region Combined they can accommodate up to 200 people in the summer and 62 in the winter By the year 2000 these three stations were using 21 million liters of diesel fuel annually to provide power and heating On a smaller scale South Africarsquos SANAE IV station which was designed to accommodate up to 80 people in the summer and 10 people in the winter has an annual diesel consumption of about 300000l During winter about 72 kW of power is needed to keep the station at a temperature of 18 1113088C and the power needed for heating can more than double during very cold periods [4] The fuel for SANAE IV is transported from Cape Town and transportation and logistical costs increase the price of the fuel to approximately three times that of the purchase price [5]-round and in the future may open its doors in the winter and accommodate up to 12 peoplepara

ChinaUS China relations high now multiple warrantsFollet 14 ndash Graduate Student from George Mason University and Writer for the Diplomat magazine (Andrew ldquoChina and the US Destined to Cooperaterdquo Pub June 24 2014 The Diplomat official website httpthediplomatcom201406china-and-the-us-destined-to-cooperate Accessed June 25 2014 DH)

The 21st century will be defined by the relationship between the American superpower and rising China A new Cold War would threaten the world order while a mutually beneficial association could bring all prosperity The latter scenario is more likely The geography economies and energy resources of the US and China align their ldquocore interestsrdquopara First geography The US is located on the most resource and capital-rich continent North America The American Midwest consists of valuable arable land and is bisected by the worldrsquos largest navigable rivers allowing the export of food and products at bargain prices Nearby nations have either historically been on friendly terms (Canada) or lack the ability to present a threat (Central America and the Caribbean) without an external sponsor This benign environment has allowed America to focus on projecting power and dominating global merchant marine traffic Since China lies across an ocean dominated by the American Navy neither directly threatens the otherpara China meanwhile is a populous and vast land power with a long coastline Yet Chinarsquos focus has historically turned inward with only sporadic efforts to build a naval presence Chinarsquos heartland is exposed to Russia from the north Japan to the east various fractious states to the west and the rising powers of Thailand India and Vietnam to the south In other words China is surrounded and its biggest threats are from other land-based powers

particularly Russia and Indiapara China therefore cannot afford to antagonize America since it would require American support or tacit neutrality in any conflict with Russia or India Geography ensures that China does not see American naval dominance on its shores as a comparable threat A Chinese move against American interests would open it to aggression from its neighbors while simultaneously cutting off a needed

ally No Chinese government is foolish enough to risk multiple high-intensity wars para The geography of China and the US dictate their ldquocore interestsrdquo as mutually non-threatening states and make cooperation more likely since both have an interest in opposing

Russiapara Secondly the American and Chinese economies are destined to become more interdependent and integrated economies usually lead to geostrategic alliances The US follows a laissez-faire economic model entailing a boom-and-bust cycle that is harsher than in more planned systems When the free market dictates economic apportionment at the height of the cycle resources are often applied to unwise projects During recessions companies either downsize or go out of business resulting in short spurts of high unemployment America tolerates these fluctuations because she long ago decided to trade economic stability for higher long term growth This has succeeded over the past century This growth combined with other advantages ensures the US will endure as a superpower America utilizes its advantages to maintain a global maritime ldquotrade orderrdquo in the form of organizations like the World Bank International Monetary Fund and World Trade Organization resulting in economic growth for the world and a successful consumption-based economy at homepara Contrastingly Chinarsquos economy is a sort of ldquostate capitalismrdquo distinct from the European ldquostate championrdquo model The economy is based around exporting finished manufactured goods to America further integrating both economies Chinarsquos two-decade-plus surge in economic growth will soon end yet given the lack of progress in transitioning to a more consumption-based economy China has not achieved what its large population considers an equitable distribution of resources and benefits Such imbalances foster domestic tensions The growth constraints facing Chinarsquos economy will only create additional problems with fewer new resources at Beijingrsquos disposal The Chinese slowdown has already led to political infighting and this is likely to continue in the future Addressing this problem while transitioning to a consumption-based economy may reduce the ability of the ruling Communist Party to project power abroad while retaining it at homepara Economically America is strong in areas like food production education technology and precision industrial

manufacturing China by contrast is strong in areas like heavy industry light manufacturing and cheap labor This presents a recipe for complementary economic interdependencepara Finally both countries will move closer geopolitically due to their complementary energy interests Most of Chinarsquos foreign policy centers on attempts to acquire new energy resources

particularly oil Over the following decades China will seek to become more self-sufficient by expanding its hydropower capacity and coal plants America shares this goal and with the shale revolution will likely end up exporting energy to China including oil and liquid natural gas This gives America a geopolitical ldquoleverrdquo over China by increasing economic interdependencepara The American situation on energy resources particularly oil and natural gas outclasses Chinarsquos Oil is non-renewable and OPEC nations will likely be unable to meet Chinarsquos growing demand However America now controls the worldrsquos largest untapped oil reserve the Green River Formation This formation alone contains up to 3 trillion barrels of untapped oil-shale roughly half of which may be recoverable This single geologic formation could contain more oil than the rest of the worldrsquos proven reserves combinedpara

Economy (bad now)Global economic growth will be steady this yearMoodys Investors Service Staff Writer May 8 2014 ldquoAdvanced economies likely to drive global growth in 2014-15 as emerging markets slow downrdquo Global Credit Research httpswwwmoodyscomresearchMoodys-Advanced-economies-likely-to-drive-global-growth-in-2014--PR_298858 Accessed 5182014

Overall positive developments in advanced economies will raise global growth this year to around 3 For emerging markets growth in 2014 is likely to be lower than in 2013 In 2015 as stronger trade spills over to improved domestic activity in most countries global growth is expected to rise further to reach close to 35 for the G20 economies in line with historical averages

US economy rising now- 5 reasons

Wiseman 7614 (Paul Wiseman Associated Press July 6 2014 Economic rebound in US outpaces that in Europe Asia httpwwwspokesmancomstories2014jul06economic-rebound-in-us-outpaces-that-in-europe

WASHINGTON ndash How does the US economy do it Europe is floundering China faces slower growth Japan is struggling to sustain tentative

gains Yet the US job market is humming and the pace of economic growth is steadily rising Five full years

after a devastating recession officially ended the economy is finally showing the vigor that Americans have long awaited Last month employers added 288000 jobs and helped reduce the unemployment rate to 61 percent the lowest since September 2008 June capped a five-month stretch of 200000-plus job gains ndash the first in nearly 15 years After having shrunk at a 29 percent annual rate from

January through March ndash largely because of a brutal winter ndash the US economy is expected to grow at a healthy 3 percent pace the rest of the year Here are five reasons the United States is outpacing other major economies Aggressive central bank ldquoThe Federal Reserve acted sooner and more aggressively than other central banks in keeping rates lowrdquo said Bernard Baumohl chief global economist at the Economic Outlook Group In December 2008 the Fed slashed short-term interest rates to near zero and has kept them there Ultra-low loan rates have made it easier for individuals and businesses to borrow and spend The Fed also launched three bond-buying programs meant to reduce long-term rates By contrast the European Central Bank has been slower to respond to signs of economic distress among the 18 nations that share the euro currency The ECB actually raised rates in 2011 ndash the same year the eurozone sank back into recession Itrsquos worth keeping in mind that the Fed has two mandates To keep prices stable and to maximize employment The ECB has just one mandate To guard against high inflation The Fed was led during and after the Great Recession by Ben Bernanke a student of the Great Depression who was determined to avoid a repeat of the 1930srsquo economic collapse Janet Yellen who succeeded Bernanke as Fed chair this year has

continued his emphasis on nursing the US economy back to health after the recession of 2007-2009 with the help of historically low rates Stronger banks The United States moved faster than Europe to restore its banksrsquo health after the financial crisis of 2008-2009 The US government bailed out the financial system and subjected big banks to stress tests in 2009 to reveal their financial strength By showing the banks to be surprisingly healthy the stress tests helped restore confidence in the US financial system Banks gradually started lending again European banks only now are undergoing stress tests and the results wonrsquot be out until fall In the meantime Europersquos banks lack confidence They fear that other banks are holding too many bad loans and that Europe is vulnerable to another crisis So they arenrsquot lending much In the United States overall bank lending is up nearly 4 percent in the past year Lending to business has jumped 10 percent In the eurozone lending has dropped 37 percent overall according to figures from the Institute of International Finance Lending to business is off 25

percent (The US figures are for the year ending in mid-June the European figures are from May) Flexible economy Economists say Japan and Europe need to undertake reforms to make their economies more flexible ndash more in other words like Americarsquos Europe needs to lift wage restrictions that prevent employers from cutting pay (rather than eliminating jobs) when times are bad It also could rethink welfare and retirement programs that discourage people from working and dismantle policies that protect favored businesses and block innovative newcomers the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development has argued Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has proposed reforms meant to make the Japanese economy more competitive He wants to expand child care so more women can work replace small inefficient farms with large-scale commercial farms and allow more foreign migrant workers to fill labor shortages in areas such as nursing and construction Yet his proposals face fierce opposition ldquoEurope and Japan remain less well-positioned for durable long-term growth as they have only recently begun to tackle their deep-rooted structural problems and a lot remains to be donerdquo said Eswar Prasad a professor of trade policy at Cornell University China is struggling to manage a transition from an economy based on exports and often wasteful investment in real estate and factories to a sturdier but likely slower-

growing economy based on more consumer spending Less budget-cutting Weighed down by debt many European countries took an ax to swelling budget deficits They slashed pension benefits raised taxes and cut civil servantsrsquo wages The cuts devastated several European economies They led to 27 percent unemployment in Greece 14 percent in Portugal and 25 percent in Spain The United States has done some

budget cutting too and raised taxes But US austerity hasnrsquot been anywhere near as harsh Roaring stock market The Fedrsquos easy-money policies ignited a world-beating US stock market rally Over the past five years US stocks easily have outpaced shares in Europe Japan and Hong Kong

That was one of Bernankersquos goals in lowering rates He figured miserly fixed-income rates would nudge investors into stocks in search of higher returns Higher stock prices would then make Americans feel more confident and more willing to spend ndash the so-called wealth effect

US economy resilient Klimasinska and Chandra Correspondents for Bloomberg news 8272013 (Kasia and Shobhana ldquoAmerica Resilient Five Years after great recessionrdquo Bloomberg News httpwwwbloombergcomnews2013-08-27america-resilient-five-years-after-great-recessionhtml)JSutter

Ethan Harris former chief US economist at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc recalls packing his family photos and top research into a suitcase five years ago on the Friday before the company went under Anticipating he might not be able to go back to his office in New York he exchanged phone numbers with colleagues and talked to his supervisor Paul Sheard who agreed it would be disastrous for markets if Lehman wasnrsquot rescued ldquoMy boss at the time said to me lsquoWell we know itrsquos going to be a devastating event and therefore theyrsquore not going to let it happenrsquo And I said lsquoWell I donrsquot know maybe they willrsquordquo said Harris now co-head of global economics research at Bank of America Corp (BAC) While Harrisrsquos premonition proved true -- Lehmanrsquos bankruptcy filing on Sept 15 2008 exacerbated the worst financial crisis since the

Great Depression -- the economy with help from the Federal Reserve has emerged from the ruins

ldquoin much better healthrdquo he said The US is weathering federal budget cuts and higher payroll taxes growth is picking up and some economists predict the expansion now in its fifth year may last longer

than most The signs of resilience are everywhere Households continue to spend Businesses are investing and hiring Home sales are rebounding and the automobile industry is surging Banks have healthier balance sheets and credit is easing All this coincides with the economy shedding the excesses of the past such as unmanageable levels of consumer and corporate debt

Economy (good but will decline)The economy is improving now but recovery is still incomplete Reuters 14 July 16 2014 (ldquoUS economic recovery not yet complete says Fed chairmanrdquo

httpwwwscmpcombusinesseconomyarticle1555074us-economic-recovery-not-yet-complete-says-fed-chairman accessed tm 71614)

The United States economic recovery remains incomplete with a still-ailing job market and stagnant wages justifying loose monetary policy for the foreseeable future Federal Reserve chairman Janet Yellen told a Senate committee yesterday Yellen said that early signs of a pickup in inflation were not enough for the Fed to accelerate its plans for raising interest rates a move currently expected in the middle of next year That could change with interest rates rising sooner and faster if data showed labour markets improving more quickly than expected she

said But as it stood although the economy continues to improve the recovery is not yet complete Yellen said in semi-annual testimony before the Senate banking committee repeating her focus on lagging labour force participation and weak wage growth as key to any conclusions about the economys health Too many Americans remain unemployed she said

Regulations cause economic decline small businesses proveDanner 2013 ( Dan ldquoStop overregulating businesses Opposing viewrdquo USA today July 24 2013httpwwwusatodaycomstoryopinion20130724national-federation-of-independent-business-regulations-editorials-debates2585147)

One of the top concerns we hear from our 350000 small-business members is how discouraged they are by the tidal wave of new rules and regulations imposed on them by the federal regulatory machine Persistent small-business pessimism and lagging job creation is without a doubt related to their sense of regulatory suffocation A new McKinsey Global Institute study finds that the US might be losing its economic edge and falling behind its competitors due in part to our regulatory climate According to McKinsey US business executives say that permitting regulation and taxes are increasingly impediments to investing in the United States Of the more than 3500 federal regulations rushing through the federal pipeline 202 are considered to have a major economic impact and 739 directly target small businesses These edicts not only arrive in great numbers they also hit virtually every aspect of small firms mdash taxes health care labor environment safety and much more

Economy (need to stabilize)Incentives fail due to marketplace confusionPittenger et al lsquo07 [Richard Pittenger is chairman of the Marine Aquaculture Task Force former Vice President for Marine Operations and Arctic Research Coordinator for Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution former Chief of Staff to the US Naval Forces in Europe and Oceanographer of the Navy Bruce Anderson PhD in biomedical sciences from the University of Hawaii is president of the Oceanic Institute holds an MPH in epidemiology from Yale University Daniel Benetti is Associate Professor and the Director of Aquaculture at the University of Miamirsquos Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science has over 25 years experience in aquaculture worldwide ldquoSustainable Marine Aquaculture Fulfilling the Promise Managing the Risksrdquo January httpwwwpewtrustsorguploadedFileswwwpewtrustsorgReportsProtecting_ocean_lifeSustainable_Marine_Aquaculture_final_1_07pdf]

No one kind of demand-side program is a ldquosilver bulletrdquo for the marketplace Corporatepara purchasing standards such as those adoptedpara by Wegmans and Ahold provide a strongpara economic incentive for suppliers to improvepara their production practices They can bepara established relatively quickly and can be tailoredpara to suit the needs of particular buyerspara and suppliers Nevertheless

the proliferation of numerous disparate corporate purchasing programs could result in a difficult marketplace for some suppliers who have to implement different production standards to meet the needs of different customers as well as result in a confusing marketplace for consumers

FisheriesFisheries and oceans not headed for collapseHilborn 10 --- Professor Aquatic and Fishery Sciences University of Washington (November 2010 Ray ldquoApocalypse Forestalled Why All the Worldrsquos

Fisheries Arenrsquot Collapsingrdquo httpwwwatseaorgdocHilborn20201020Science20Chronicles202010-11-1pdf JMP)

If you have paid any attention to the conservation literature or science journalism over the last five years you likely have gotten the impression that our oceans are so poorly managed that they soon will be empty of fish mdash unless governments order drastic curtailment of current fishing practices including the establishment of

huge no-take zones across great swaths of the oceans To be fair there are some places where such severe declines may be true A more balanced diagnosis however tells a different story mdash one that still requires changes in some fishing practices but

that is far from alarmist But this balanced diagnosis is being almost wholly ignored in favor of an apocalyptic rhetoric that obscures the true issues fisheries face as well as the correct cures for those problems To get the storyline correct it is important to go back to the sources of the

apocalyptic rhetoric In 2006 a paper was published by Boris Worm in Science (Worm et al 2006) that received enormous press coverage It argued that if current trends continued all fish stocks would collapse by 2048 Worm and his coauthors concluded their paper with the following sentence ldquoOur analyses suggest that business as usual would foreshadow serious threats to global food security coastal water quality and ecosystem stability affecting current and future generationsrdquo Others joined in chief among them Daniel Pauly who rang and continues to ring the apocalyptic note ldquoThere are basically two alternatives for fisheries science and management one is obviously continuing with business as usualhelliprdquo wrote Pauly in 2009 (Pauly 2009a) ldquoThis would lead in addition to further depletion of biodiversity to intensification of lsquofishing down marine food websrsquo which ultimately involves the transformation of marine ecosystems into dead zonesrdquo It might surprise you to learn Paulyrsquos views are not universally held among scientists Indeed these papers exposed a deep divide in the marine science community over the state of fish

stocks and the success of existing fisheries management approaches Numerous critiques of the apocalyptic stance were published after the 2006 paper suggesting

that Worm et al had greatly exaggerated the failings of ldquobusiness as usualrdquo For instance Steve

Murawski director of scientific programs and chief science advisor defended the US fisheries management system and pointed out that the proportion of stocks overfished in the US was declining not increasing (Murawski et al 2007) No one disagrees on our goals for the worldrsquos fisheries stocks mdash we need higher fish abundances The arguments are largely about where we are now and how we will get to higher fish abundance and lower fishing pressure Are current fisheries management systems working to decimate fish stockshellipor rebuild them Do we need large areas of the oceans closed to fishing to assure sustainable seafood supply Daniel Pauly says yes to the latter question ldquoThis transformationrdquo he writes ldquowould also require extensive use of ocean zoning and spatial closures including no-take marine protected areas (MPAs) Indeed MPAs must be at the core of any scheme intending to put fisheries on an ecologically sustainable basisrdquo (Pauly 2009a) In an attempt to resolve this dispute Boris Worm and I several years ago organized a set of four meetings sponsored by the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS) in which we assembled a database on abundance as measured by fisheries agencies and research surveys Participants included several of the authors of the 2006 paper as well as several people from national fisheries management agencies The results were published in Science in 2009 (Worm et al 2009) and showed that while the majority of stocks were still below target levels fishing pressure had been reduced in most ecosystems (for which we had data) to below the point that would assure long-term maximum sustainable yield of fish from those ecosystems About 30 percent of the stocks

would currently be classified as overfished mdash but generally fishing pressure has been reduced enough that all but 17 percent of stocks would be expected to recover to above overfished thresholds if current fishing pressure continues In the United States there was clear evidence for the rebuilding of marine ecosystems

and stock biomass The idea that 70 percent of the worldrsquos fish stocks are overfished or collapsed and that the rate of overfishing is accelerating (Pauly 2007) was shown by Worm et al (2009) and FAO (2009) to be untrue The Science paper coming out of the NCEAS group also showed that the success in reducing fishing pressure had been achieved by a broad range of traditional fisheries management tools mdash including catchand- effort limitation gear restrictions and temporary closed areas Marine protected areas were an insignificant factor in the success achieved

Moreover overfishing cannot be solved without addressing alternate causesSielen 13 --- Senior Fellow for International Environmental Policy at the Center for Marine Biodiversity and Conservation at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography (NovDec 2013 Alan B Foreign Affairs ldquoThe Devolution of the Seas The Consequences of Oceanic Destructionrdquo httpwwwforeignaffairscomarticles140164alan-b-sielenthe-devolution-of-the-seas JMP)

A WAY FORWARD Governments and societies have come to expect much less from the sea The base lines of environmental quality good governance and personal responsibility have plummeted This passive acceptance of the ongoing destruction of the seas is all the more shameful given how avoidable the process is Many solutions exist and some are relatively simple For example governments could create and expand protected marine areas adopt and enforce stronger international rules to conserve biological diversity in the open ocean and place a

moratorium on the fishing of dwindling fish species such as Pacific bluefin tuna But solutions will also require broader changes in how societies approach energy agriculture and the management of natural resources Countries will have to make substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions transition to clean energy eliminate the worst toxic chemicals and end the massive nutrient pollution in watersheds These challenges may seem daunting especially for countries focused on basic survival But governments international institutions nongovernmental organizations scholars and businesses have the necessary experience and capacity to find answers to the oceansrsquo problems And they have succeeded in the past through innovative local initiatives on every continent impressive scientific advances tough environmental regulation and enforcement and important international measures such

as the global ban on the dumping of nuclear waste in the oceans So long as pollution overfishing and ocean acidification remain concerns only for scientists however little will change for the good Diplomats and national security experts who understand the potential for conflict in an overheated world should realize that climate change might soon become a matter of war and peace Business leaders should understand better than most the direct links between healthy seas and healthy economies And government officials who are entrusted with the publicrsquos well-being must surely see the importance of clean air land and water The world faces a choice We do not have to return to an oceanic Stone Age Whether we can summon the political will and moral courage to restore the seas to health before it is too late is an open question The challenge and the opportunity are there

US fisheries are recovering nowPlumer 14 (582014 Brad ldquoHow the US stopped its fisheries from collapsingrdquo httpwwwvoxcom2014585669120how-the-us-stopped-its-fisheries-from-collapsing JMP)

para We hear a lot of grim stories about overfishing and the decline of fisheries around the world Bluefin tuna is vanishing Chilean sea bass is dwindling Pretty soon it sometimes seems like all thatll be left is the jellyfishpara So its worth highlighting a country that has actually done a lot to curtail overfishing and rebuild its fisheries in the past decade mdash the United Statespara Back in the 1980s and 90s many fisheries in the US were in serious trouble Fish populations were dropping sharply Some of New Englands best-known groundfish stocks mdash including flounder cod and haddock mdash had collapsed costing the regions coastal communities hundreds of millions of dollarspara But the picture has improved considerably in the last decade thanks in part to stricter fishing regulations Last week the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its annual fisheries update for 2013 mdash and the news was encouraging Yes progress has been uneven About one-fifth of assessed stocks are still overfished But on the whole US fisheries are steadily recovering

Global Warming (GW)Cooling is coming now ndash itrsquos fast and outweighs the effects of warmingCarlin 11 ndash PhD in Economics from MIT

Alan Carlin PhD in Economics former Director EPA and fellow RAND 3-2011 ldquo A Multidisciplinary Science-Based Approach to the Economics of Climate Changerdquo International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health Vol 8

On the contrary the evidence is that during interglacial periods over the last 3 million years the risks are on the temperature downside not the upside As we approach the point where the Holocene has reached the historical age when a new ice age has repeatedly started in past glacial cycles this appears likely to be the only CAGW effect that mankind should currently reasonably be concerned about Earth is currently in an interglacial period quite similar to others before and after each of the glacial periods that Earth has experienced over the last 3 million years During these interglacial periods there is currently no known case where global temperatures suddenly and dramatically warmed above interglacial temperatures such as we are now experiencing to very much warmer temperatures There have of course been interglacial periods that have experienced slightly higher temperatures but none that we know of that after 10000 years experienced a sudden catastrophic further increase in global temperatures The point here is that there does not appear to be instability towards much warmer temperatures during interglacial periods There is rather instability towards much colder temperatures particularly during the later stages of interglacial periods In fact Earth has repeatedly entered new ice ages about every 100000 years during recent cycles and interglacial periods have lasted about 10000 years We are currently very close to the 10000 year mark for the current interglacial period So if history is any guide the main worry should be that of entering a new ice age with its growing ice sheets that would probably wipe out civilization in the temperate regions of the Northern Hemispheremdashnot global warming The economic damages from a new ice age would indeed be large and almost certainly catastrophic Unfortunately it is very likely to occur sooner or later

Warming inevitable even if we cut emissions to zeromdashmultiple studies confirm Gillett et al 10mdashdirector the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis [Nathan ldquoOngoing climate change following a complete cessation of carbon dioxide emissionsrdquo Nature Geoscience]

Several recent studies have demonstrated that CO2-induced 17 global mean temperature change is irreversible on human 18 timescales1_5 We find that not only is this climate change 19 irreversible but that for some climate variables such as Antarctic 20 temperature and North African rainfall CO2-induced climate 21 changes are simulated to continue to worsen for many centuries 22 even after a complete cessation of emissions Although it is 23 also well known that a large committed thermosteric sea level 24 rise is expected even after a cessation of emissions in 2100 25 our finding of a strong delayed high-latitude Southern Ocean 26 warming at intermediate depths suggests that this effect may be 27 compounded by ice shelf collapse grounding line retreat and ensuing

accelerated ice discharge in marine-based sectors of the 28 Antarctic ice sheet precipitating a sea level rise of several metres 29 Quantitative results presented here are subject to uncertainties 30 associated with the climate sensitivity the rate of ocean heat 31 uptake and the rate of carbon uptake in CanESM1 but our 32 findings of Northern Hemisphere cooling Southern Hemisphere 33 warming a southward shift of the intertropical convergence zone 34 and delayed and ongoing ocean warming at intermediate depths 35 following a cessation of emissions are likely to be robust Geo- 36 engineering by stratospheric aerosol injection has been proposed 37 as a response measure in the event of a rapid melting of the 38 West Antarctic ice sheet24 Our results indicate that if such a 39 melting were driven by ocean warming at intermediate depths as 40 is thought likely a geoengineering response would be ineffective 41 for several centuries owing to the long delay associated with 42 subsurface ocean warming

Even if we stopped CO2 emissions today temperatures would be constant or increase for another 50 yearsThomas Lukas Froumllicher Et al Nov 24 lsquo13 Environmental Physics Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics and Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Princeton University ldquoContinued global warming after CO2 emissions stoppagerdquo Nature Climate Change httpwwwnaturecomnclimatejournalvaopncurrentfullnclimate2060html Accessed 4302014

Recent studies have suggested that global mean surface temperature would remain approximately constant on multi-century timescales after CO2 emissions are stopped Here we use Earth system model simulations of such a stoppage to demonstrate that in some models surface temperature may actually increase on multi-century timescales after an initial century-long decrease This occurs in spite of a decline in radiative forcing that exceeds the decline in ocean heat uptakemdasha circumstance that would otherwise be expected to lead to a decline in global temperature The reason is that the warming effect of decreasing ocean heat uptake together with feedback effects arising in response to the geographic structure of ocean heat uptake overcompensates the cooling effect of decreasing atmospheric CO2 on multi-century timescales Our study also reveals that equilibrium climate sensitivity estimates based on a widely used method of regressing the Earthrsquos energy imbalance against surface temperature change are biased Uncertainty in the magnitude of the feedback effects associated with the magnitude and geographic distribution of ocean heat uptake therefore contributes substantially to the uncertainty in allowable carbon emissions for a given multi-century warming target

HegemonyNo military benefit of alt energy- the qualificationss of this evidence overwhelms their evidenceBartis and Bibber rsquo11 (James T Bartis Senior policy researcher at the RAND Corporation Bartis has more than 25 years of experience in policy analyses and technical assessments in energy and national security His recent energy research topics include analyses of the international petroleum supply chain assessments of alternative fuels for military and civilian applications development prospects for coal-to-liquids and oil shale energy and national security Qatars natural gas-to-diesel plants Japans energy policies planning methods for long-range energy research and development critical mining technologies and national response options during international energy emergencies Bartis joined the US Department of Energy (DOE) in 1978 shortly after it was established Before joining RAND Bartis was vice president of Science Applications International Corporation and vice president and cofounder of Eos Technologies Bartis received his PhD in chemical physics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Previous Positions Vice President Science Applications International Corporation Vice President and Cofounder Eos Technologies Director Policy and Planning Office of the Assistant Secretary for Fossil Energy

US Department of Energy Director Divisions of Fossil Energy and Environment Office of Policy and Evaluation US Department of Energy Prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense National Defense Research Institute RAND Institute ldquoAlternative Fuels for Military Applicationsrdquo 2011)

Findings on Military Use of Alternative Fuels There is no direct benefit to the Department of Defense or the services from using alternative fuels rather than petroleum -derived fuels Our analysis of forward-based production concepts indicated that none provide a compelling military benefit In contrast most if not all would increase the logistics burden on deployed units If a domestic alternative fuel industry does develop alternative fuels will be sold at the then-prevailing fuel prices which over the foreseeable future will be determined by crude oil prices in the world oil

market There is no evidence that producers of alternative fuels will offer their products at lower or more stable prices than producers of petroleum -derived fuels Using climate-friendly alternative fuels in tactical weapon

systems offers a means for DoD to greatly reduce greenhouse gas emissions However over at least the next decade the availability of climate-friendly alternative fuels will be limited by the prevailing technical uncertainties associated with large-scale commercial production Diverting this limited production to DoD applications will likely result in less use in civilian applications with nationwide greenhouse gas emissions being insensitive to the apportionment between civilian and military applications If Defense Department efforts in alternative fuel testing

research and promoting early commercial production are successful the benefits of this work will accrue more to the nation as a whole rather than to DoD or the services Alternative fuel use in DoD tactical systems offers national benefits in much the same way as do mandates for DoD to be an early user of renewable power at its installations

Alternate causes overwhelm or hegemony is resilientCopley rsquo12 (Gregory R editor of Defense amp Foreign Affairsrsquo Strategic Policy Strategic Policy in an Age of Global Realignment lexis June 2012)

3 Strategic Recovery by the US The US will not in 2012 or 2013 show signs of any recovery of its global strategic credibility or real strength Its manufacturing and science and technology sectors will continue to suffer from low (even declining) productivity and difficulty in capital formation (for political reasons primarily) A significant US recovery is not feasible in the timeframe given the present political and economic policies and impasse evident US allies will increasingly look to their own needs while attempting to sustain their alliance relationship with the US to the extent feasible Those outside the US alliance network or peripheral to it will increasingly disregard US politicaldiplomatic pressures and will seek to accommodate the PRC or regional actors The continued economic malaise of the US during 2012 even if disguised by modest nominal GDP growth will make economic (and therefore strategic)

recovery more difficult and ensure that it will take longer In any event the fact that the US national debt exceeds the GDP hollows the dollar and thus makes meaningful recovery impossible in the short-term The attractiveness of a low dollar value in comparison to other currencies in making US manufacturing investment more feasible than in recent years is offset by declining US workforce productivity and political constraints which penalize investment in manufacturing or even in achieving appealing conditions for capital formation Banks are as afraid of such investment as are manufacturing investors themselves

NavyThe plan canrsquot finance shipbuilding due to already bad credit ratingsRubin 2012

(Dow Jones Newswires ldquoSampP As Maritime Shipping Fleets Age US Companies Will Face Greater Challengesrdquo httpgcaptaincomsp-maritime-shipping-fleets)

Already burdened with eroding credit quality many US shipping companies will face greater challenges in the near future as their older fleets continue to age Standard amp Poorrsquos said ldquoThe US domestic fleet likely will contract over the next three to five years as vessels retire faster than owners can replace themrdquo said SampP analyst Funmi Afonja ldquoCompanies that cannot find sufficient financing to refresh their fleet may not surviverdquo For those operators that can stay afloat she said reduced capacity should cut back on industry oversupply leading to better charter rates The inland river system and the coastwise trade benefit from government protections that exclude competition from foreign-flagged vessels But SampP

said US-built ships are expensive and shipping companiesrsquo access to financing depend heavily on their credit quality Weak credit quality challenging capital market conditions and reduced access to government-guaranteed loans likely will increase the cost of funding new vessels and retrofitting old ones to meet upcoming environmental regulations SampP said Companies at the lower end of the speculative-grade ratings spectrum are both the most likely to face steep financing costs and the least equipped to deal with those costs SampP continued

Theyrsquore alternate cause such as a lack of funding is crushing carrier deploymentsDyer lsquo14

Jennifer Dyer is a retired US Naval intelligence officer who served around the world afloat and ashore from 1983 to 2004 My last operations in the Navy were Iraqi Freedom and Enduring Freedom in 2003 About that new Navy readiness policy Jan 27 2014 httptheoptimisticconservativewordpresscom20140127about-that-new-navy-readiness-policy

The bottom line for the new Optimized Fleet Response Plan is that the Navy will maintain fewer aircraft carriers ready to ldquosurgerdquo in response to national security requirements Instead of trying to maintain 3-4 carriers in that status of operational availability (slide 10) the Navy will maintain two (slide 13)para The operationally available carriers will not be in addition to the deployed carrier in the Persian Gulf region they will include the deployed carrier In other words there will be a carrier in the Gulf region and one additional carrier that is operationally availablepara At any given time that second carrier will have to be the one dedicated to the Far East It may be the carrier homeported in Japan ndash or when that carrier is in a pierside maintenance period in Japan it will be another Pacific Fleet carrier (This isnrsquot explicitly reflected in the slide presentation but itrsquos implied by national policy which requires immediate response to a Korean crisis with at

least one carrier strike group)para That will be it There wonrsquot be additional carriers to deploy for front-line operations para The reason is money Itrsquos nothing more complicated than that The Navy doesnrsquot have enough money to maintain more carriers operationally available at the same time If you go through the slide presentation yoursquoll see two hints at that reality Most of the presentation is devoted to explaining how the fleet will revise scheduling maintenance training etc to adjust to the new fleet response plan But the planrsquos most basic numbers ndash 2 carrier groups at a time a 36-month cycle one 8-month deployment per cycle (slide 13) ndash are ultimately driven by the constraints of money

Oil DependencyForeign Oil Dependence is decreasing now we will be importing less than 40 within a decade

ESLC 12mdashEnergy Security Leadership Council The New American Oil Boom Implications for Energy Security pg5

Between 2009 and 2011 the U nited S tates experienced three consecutive years of crude oil

production growth for the first time since 1983-198512 A number of regions contributed to rising output

including the upper Midwest the Gulf Coast the Rocky Mountain West and the federal Gulf of Mexico Perhaps more importantly the recent increases have been substantial in volume Compared to annual crude production in 2008 output in 2011 was 709000 barrels per day highermdashgrowth of more than 14 percent13 The last comparable growth period in US crude oil production occurred in the late 1960s14 Without question the U nited S tates is

experiencing a renaissance in domestic liquid fuel production In fact growth in crude oil production is being

augmented by rising output of natural gas liquids and liquids derived from biomass Taken together output of domestic liquid fuels reached 88 million barrels per day in 2011 its highest level in two decades15 Moreover a number of recent government and industry estimates suggest that the current expansion in liquid fuel production is sustainable for the next decade or more In its recently released Annual Energy Outlook 2012 the Department of

Energy forecast US traditional liquids output to reach 107 mbd in 2020 and 108 mbd in 203016 Combined with an increasingly efficient vehicle fleet rising domestic

output is expected to contribute to major reductions in US oil imports (compared to both current levels and

to forecasts from as recent as four years ago) In fact the transition is already well underway In 2005 net US imports of crude oil and petroleum products accounted for 60 percent of final consumption17 In 2011 that figure fell to 447 percent and by 2025 it could be as low as 379 percent 18 To understand the importance of these

developments and implications for long-term policy planning it is first necessary to identify the factors that are contributing to rapidly rising US oil output

The US is massively decreasing oil dependence now We will be independent by 2035Gonzalez 12 Angela ldquoExpanded Oil Drilling Helps US Wean Itself From Mideast ldquo [httponlinewsjcomarticleSB10001424052702304441404577480952719124264html] June 27

HOUSTONmdashAmerica will halve its reliance on Middle East oil by the end of this decade and could end it completely by 2035 due to declining demand and the rapid growth of new petroleum sources in the Western Hemisphere energy analysts now anticipate The shift a result of technological advances that are unlocking new sources of oil in shale-rock formations oil sands and deep beneath the ocean floor carries profound consequences for the US economy and energy security A good portion of this surprising bounty comes from the widespread use of

hydraulic fracturing or fracking a technique perfected during the last decade in US fields previously deemed not worth tampering with By 2020 nearly half of the crude oil America consumes will be produced at home while 82 will come from this side of the Atlantic according to the US Energy Information Administration By 2035 oil shipments from the

Middle East to North America could almost be nonexistent the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries recently

predicted partly because more efficient car engines and a growing supply of renewable fuel will

The US is already creating enough oil to begin the gradual decrease of dependence We donrsquot need to increase our production because itrsquos already effective And even if itrsquos not other non-violent countries have oil we could import If the US continues on the path itrsquos on right now we will stop importing from the Middle East completely by 2035

ProliferationProlif solves arms race and prevents miscalculated warWaltz 2003 (Kenneth Waltz professor Professor of Poly Sci at Berkley 2003 ldquoThe Spread of Nuclear Weapons A Debate Renewedrdquo)SQR

Fifth certainty about the relative strength of adversaries also makes war less likely From the late nineteenth

century onward the speed of technological innovation increased the difficulty of estimating relative strengths and predicting the course of campaigns Since World War II technological advance has been even faster but short of a ballistic missile defense breakthrough this has not mattered It did not disturb the American-Soviet military equilibrium because one sides missiles were not made obsolete by improvements in the other sides missiles In 1906 the British Dreadnought with the greater range and fire

power of its guns made older battleships obsolete This does not happen to missiles As Bernard Brodie put it Weapons that do not have to fight their like do not become useless because of the advent of newer and superior type s 5 They may have to survive their like but that is a much simpler problem to solve Many wars might have been avoided had their outcomes been foreseen To be sure Georg Simmel wrote the most effective presupposition for preventing struggle the exact knowledge of the comparative strength of the two parties is very often only to be obtained by the actual fighting out of the conflict 6

Miscalculation causes wars One side expects victory at an affordable price while the other side hopes to avoid defeat Here the differences between conventional and nuclear worlds are fundamental In the former states are too often tempted to act on advantages that are wishfully discerned and narrowly calculated In 1914

neither Germany nor France tried very hard to avoid a general war Both hoped for victory even though they believed the opposing coalitions to be quite evenly matched In 1941 Japan in attacking the United States could hope for victory only if a series of events that were possible but unlikely took place Japan hoped to grab resources sufficient for continuing its war against China and then to dig in to defend a limited perimeter Meanwhile the United States and Britain would have to deal with Germany supposedly having defeated the Soviet Union and therefore reigning supreme in Europe Japan could then hope to fight a defensive war until America her purpose

weakened became willing to make a compromise peace in Asia 7 Countries more readily run the risks of war when defeat if it comes is distant and is expected to bring only limited damage Given such expectations

leaders do not have to be crazy to sound the trumpet and urge their people to be bold and courageous in the pursuit of victory The outcome of battles and the course of campaigns are hard to foresee because so many things affect them Predicting the result of conventional wars has proved difficult Uncertainty about outcomes does not work decisively against the fighting of wars in conventional worlds Countries armed with conventional weapons go to war knowing that even in defeat their suffering will be limited

Calculations about nuclear war are made differently A nuclear world calls for a different kind of reasoning If countries armed with nuclear weapons go to war with each other they do so knowing that their suffering may be unlimited Of course it also may not be but that is not the kind of uncertainty that encourages anyone to use force In a conventional world one is uncertain about winning or losing In a nuclear world one is uncertain about surviving or being

annihilated If force is used and not kept within limits catastrophe will result That prediction is easy to make because it does not require close estimates of opposing forces The number of ones cities that can be severely damaged is equal to the number of strategic warheads an adversary can deliver Variations of number mean little within wide ranges The expected effect of the deterrent achieves an easy clarity because wide margins of error in estimates of the damage one may suffer do not matter Do we expect to lose one city or two two cities or ten When these are the pertinent questions we stop thinking about running risks and start worrying about how to avoid them In a conventional world deterrent threats are ineffective because the damage threatened is

distant limited and problematic Nuclear weapons make military miscalculation difficult and politically pertinent prediction easy

Nuclear states are not irrational Gopin 12 ( Marc Gopin PhD in Eastern studies from Brandeis Diplomacy and Conflict Resolution Director September 12th 2012 ldquoCould a Nuclear Iran Bring About More Stability Not Lessrdquo httpscargmueduicar-news14753)SQR

There was a widespread belief in policy circles that during the real Cold War the one between the Soviet Union and the United States there were two rational actors interested in their own survival According to the Nash Equilibrium doctrine of game theory there was a stable situation of mutually assured destruction that prevented global thermonuclear war for decades which in turn helped the world escape complete destruction In fact the actors were not as rational as was hoped and groupthink among American military and political advisers almost brought the world to complete destruction during the Cuban Missile Crisis Nevertheless there was much truth to

deterrence theory and it applies today as wellpara There is a current bias that somehow rogue states have crazy leaders who want their own destruction such as North Korea Well North Korea got nuclear weapons and we

are all still here and so is South Korea On the contrary the security that nuclear weapons gave the North Korean leaders (no matter how much we may despise their regime) may have been the only thing keeping them from triggering total war between North and South in recent years In fact North Korean leadership

have ultimately behaved rationally in their self-interest and not triggered their own destruction by using nuclear weapons

RussiaThe affirmative team also encounters issue regarding their Russia advantage

The affirmative is also completely over exaggerating their claim that therersquos a big risk of conflict between the Us and Russia however therersquos Zero risk of US-Russian war

Thomas Graham senior advisor on Russia in the US National Security Council staff 2002-2007 2007 Russia in Global Affairsrdquo The Dialectics of Strength and Weakness httpengglobalaffairsrunumbers201129html

An astute historian of Russia Martin Malia wrote several years ago that ldquoRussia has at different times been demonized or divinized by Western opinion less because of her real role in Europe than because of the fears and frustrations or hopes and aspirations generated within European

society by its own domestic problemsrdquo Such is the case today To be sure mounting Western concerns about Russia are a

consequence of Russian policies that appear to undermine Western interests but they are also a reflection of declining confidence in our own abilities and the efficacy of our own policies Ironically this growing fear and distrust of Russia

come at a time when Russia is arguably less threatening to the West and the United States in particular th an it has been at any time since the end of the Second World War Russia does not champion a totalitarian ideology intent on our destruction its military poses no threat to sweep across Europe its economic growth depends on constructive commercial relations with Europe and its strategic arsenal ndash while still capable of

annihilating the United States ndash is under more reliable control than it has been in the past fifteen years and the threat of a strategic strike approaches zero probability Political gridlock in key Western countries however precludes the creativity risk-taking and subtlety needed to advance our interests on issues over which we are at odds with Russia while laying the basis for more constructive long-term relations with Russia

This whole advantage is completely overblown Russia and US are fine right now and Russia doesnrsquotrsquo have any interest in bothering the US The affirmativersquos plan is simply unnecessary

They also say that we need to pass their plan to improve maritime domain awareness However MDA doesnrsquot solvemdashno political will

Mitchell 07 [Dr Paul Mitchell RUSI ldquo1000-Ship Navies Maritime Domain Awareness and Networks The Policy Nexusrdquo httpswwwrusiorgdownloadsassetsMitchell_1000-Ship_Navies_Maritime_Domain_Awareness_and_Networkspdf Evan]

The most problematic aspect of these ventures however is found precisely in the area of political will Policy issues remain the biggest barriers to enhance d naval cooperation in terms of both warfighting operations and the simple provision of maritime security Within any information-sharing enterprise three concepts find themselves in fundamental tension Information exchange is predicated on notions of efficiency usually delimited in terms of an increased speed of decision-making that comes from superior situational awareness Butting up hard against this notion in a coalition environment is that of national security typically expressed through a countryrsquos information release policy Simply put states are reluctant to freely share information regarding their own security for fear of revealing closely held secrets or national vulnerabilities Last coalition operations are predicated on notions of scarcity usually in terms of limited operational resources or levels of political legitimacy Co-operation to reduce the problem of scarce resources revolves around issues of influence over the strategic direction and control of co-operative enterprises

Soft Power When the US has soft power it means they have a major influence over the rest of the world by doing good things and helping out other countries While this seems like a great idea the truth ishellipUS soft power already sufficient ndash global reaction to Obama speech proves AP lsquo14

Associated Press writers Aya Batrawy in Dubai United Arab Emirates Jason Straziuso in Nairobi Kenya Christopher Bodeen in Beijing Aron Heller in Jerusalem Ben Fox in Miami and Steven R Hurst in Washington contributed to this report ldquoObamarsquos speech gets mixed response overseasrdquo ndash Washington Post ndash May 28th ndash httpwwwwashingtonpostcomworldafricaobamas-speech-gets-mixed-response-overseas201405282037361e-e69c-11e3-a70e-ea1863229397_storyhtml

President Barack Obamarsquos speech emphasizing soft power and alliances over military might crystallized into a

single speech what many experts said Wednesday was an inevitable mdash and welcome mdash evolution of US foreign policy The president who pulled US troops from Iraq avoided direct confrontation in Syria and has tapered off the American military presence in Afghanistan seemed to be saying that the US had learned that it cannot impose its will on the rest of the world said David Livingstone an expert in international security at

Londonrsquos Chatham House He said Obamarsquos words went against the ldquoAmerican instinct to go in hard with the military firstrdquo when crisis erupts ldquoAmerica has to be in sympathy with the world and its leadership has been perceived to be unilateralrdquo he said after listening to Obamarsquos speech at West Point He thought the president should have made it clear that it is

impossible to assure the safety of every American In the Gulf state of Qatar Brookings Center director Salman Shaikh saw the speech as a boost for consensus but he said broke no new ground for a president who has distanced himself from the

ldquointerventionist warsrdquo of his predecessor George W Bush

Soft power doesnrsquot shape foreign policy decisions of othersEllwood lsquo14

David Ellwood is an Associate Professor of International History at University of Bologna and Adjunct Professor in European-American Relations at Johns Hopkins University SAIS Bologna Center ndash ldquolsquoSoft powerrsquo is a flawed tool in foreign policy but a valuable form of global leadershiprdquo ndash The London School of Economicrsquos daily blog on American Politics and Policy ndash Jan 18th ndash httpblogslseacukusappblog20140118soft-power-is-a-flawed-tool-in-foreign-policy-but-a-valuable-form-of-global-leadership

Leaving aside its glibness and air of casuistry the lsquosoft powerrsquo concept is fundamentally flawed at just the point where Nye insists on its usefulness as a tool of foreign policy The more states attempt consciously to project the force of example they see in their nations and its ways the more the rest will see manipulation and propaganda Two US analysts who commented on the prospects for British foreign policy in a new book Influencing Tomorrow Future Challenges for British Foreign Policy were happy to say that lsquothe BBC may be a more effective tool of British

foreign policy than the Royal Navy or the British Armyrsquo But they also warned against the temptations and risks of leverage lsquowhen you reach for the tool of soft power you find it evaporates in your handrsquo In the American case in particular the temptation seems to be to try to mobilize the charismatic nature of so many

successful American inventions and people as though they are resources at the disposal of the state But they are not they are the values and products of that society in the most diffuse sense and its creative industries in particular with all their talent for absorbing and re-configuring the inventions of the world then re-launching them for a global market

Not is soft power strong now the affirmativersquos plan doesnrsquot even have the capability to influence it Soft power will remain regardless of what happens with the search of flight 370

SRMSMRs wonrsquot be do anything until 2050 at the earliestPR Newswire rsquo10 (PR Newswire ldquoIEERPSR Small Modular Reactors No Panacea for What Ails Nuclear Powerrdquo httpwwwprnewswirecomnews-

releasesieerpsr-small-modular-reactors-no-panacea-for-what-ails-nuclear-power-104024223html September 29 2010 )

And what about SMRs as some kind of silver bullet for averting global warming The IEERPSR fact sheet points

out Efficiency and most renewable technologies are already cheaper than new large reactors The long time -- a decade or more -- that it will take to certify SMRs will do little or nothing to help with the global warming problem and will actually complicate current efforts underway For example the current schedule for commercializing the above-ground sodium cooled reactor in Japan extends to 2050 making it irrelevant to addressing the climate problem Relying on assurances that SMRs will be cheap is contrary to the experience about economies of scale and is likely to waste time and money while creating new safety and proliferation risks as well as new waste disposal problems

There is no immediate risk- governments arenrsquot considering actionHorton 11 ndash Consultant at DNV KEMA Energy amp Sustainability [Joshua B Horton ldquoGeoengineering and the Myth of Unilateralism Pressures and Prospects for International Cooperationrdquo Stanford Journal of Law Science amp Policy May 2011

Unilateral SAI geoengineering is unlikely to occur because the incentives faced by states do not support it Individual incentives may be insufficient to deter unilateral SAI but taken together these impediments to unilateralism form a web of constraints which acts to steer national behavior firmly toward international consensus and collaboration The technical attributes of

SAI greatly reduce any potential benefits from unilateral deployment while thepara costs of retaliation remain unchanged Costs may

include trade sanctions diplomatic isolation linked reprisals in other issue areas and even the use of force Together these conditions strongly favor international cooperation in any attempt to successfully intervene in the climate system Pg 59

International agreements in place are solving now- one of the leading advocates for better SRM technology concludes that ldquobecause some SRM activities might affect the ozone layer they could possibly be regulated under the Montreal Protocol on Substances That Deplete the Ozone Layerrdquo That treaty alone will prevent any risk of bad technology being deployedClimate changes are regional and food will always be a part of global trade This means that they are over-hyping the problem

Spills DrillingDrilling in the Arctic isnrsquot inevitableGAO 14 (United States Government Accountability Office ldquoMARITIME INFRASTRUCTURE Key Issues Related to Commercial Activity in the US Arctic over the Next Decaderdquo Report to Congressional Requesters March 2014)

Diminishing sea ice has contributed to promising prospects for oil and gas in the US Arctic17 and created growth potential for commercial shipping on trans-Arctic routes that are geographically shorter than current shipping routes through the Panama or Suez Canals However industry representatives we spoke with from five key industriesmdash commercial shipping cruises commercial fishing oil and mining mdashstated that their level of commercial activity in the US Arctic is expected to remain limited over the next 10 years due to a variety of contributing factors Factors included general challenges related to operating in the Arctic such as geography extreme weather and hard-to-predict sea ice movement18 and other industry-specific factors Table 2 provides some examples of contributing factors cited by industry representatives Recently oil companies have made some investment s to develop offshore oil resources in the US Arctic These development efforts however are generally on hold and increases in oil exploration activity are expected to be limited The impact of oil exploration activity on the levels of maritime traffic appears uncertain

Drilling is causes spills If we increase drilling then we will decrease spills The affirmativersquos plan isnrsquot changing how we drill therefore the problem isnrsquot going to be solvedDrilling puts oceans at risk ndash spillsPE 14 (Pacific Environment ldquoFossil Fuelsrdquo Pacific Environemnt Protecting the Living Environment of the Pacific Rim 2202014 7314 httppacificenvironmentorgenergy-fossil-fuels)

The most obvious environmental impact from the oil and gas industry is the burning of oil which releases several smog- causing pollutants and

greenhouse gases that contribute to global warming However the act of exploration and drilling for oil and gas also poses a major threat to fragile ecosystems throughout the world In recent years we have seen oil spills destroy communities soil beaches and kill countless numbers of birds marine mammals fish and other wildlife Though it happened over two decades ago the Exxon Valdez spill continues to affect the

ecology of Alaska Worse yet we still do not know the full extent of the damage from the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico Despite these disasters as our energy demands continue to grow we continue seeking oil and gas offshore putting coastal communities wildlife and ecosystems at great risk

This ensures more oil spillsManuel rsquo13 Athan Manuel Director Lands Protection Program Sierra Club April 23 2013 httpdocshousegovmeetingsIIII0620130425100755HHRG-113-II06-Wstate-ManuelA-20130425pdf

Improved maintenance and training are both positive reforms that can reduce chances of para equipment failure and operator error and thus increase safety Yet of all the provisions in the para Final Drilling Safety Rule training and maintenance regulations are the most dependent on the

para robustness of BSEErsquos oversight and inspection capabilities Maintenance is an ongoing concern para that necessitates being frequently checked and inspected and training is only valuable if it para translates into appropriate actions which also requires continuous oversight to ensure para The Final Drilling Safety Rule requires drilling wells to be equipped with two independent para barriers to flow If correctly

installed these barriers could in fact protect against blowouts para However the requirements for two barriers to flow can easily be undermined by operator error para This problem is illustrated by the Deepwater Horizon disaster where a cement job a common

para barrier to flow was compromised by numerous operator errors With limited funds for inspection para and oversight and perverse economics that incentivize project speed over safety it is likely that para not all barriers will be properly installed

New oil drilling will ruin the Earthrsquos climateSteiner Richard (2014 17 July) New Offshore Oil Plan Could Be Game Over for Climate By Richard Steiner a biologist and professor Retrieved July 21 2014 from httpwwwhuffingtonpostcomrichard-steinernew-offshore-oil-plan-wou_b_5589907html

In a move that could rival the climate impacts of the Alberta tar sands and Keystone XL pipeline and would release far more atmospheric

carbon than that saved by the new EPA power plant and vehicle rules the Obama administration just initiated its 2017-2022 process to expand oil and gas drilling on the nations outer continental shelf (OCS) - including the Arctic Pacific Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico The initial public comment period on the plan closes July 31 2014 Despite the fact that many of the 2011 National Oil Spill Commissions recommendations to improve offshore drilling safety have yet to be implemented and the certainty of more oil spills this new leasing program would commit the nation to another 40 years of carbon-intensive energy that world climate cannot afford In addition to the proven offshore reserves already in production (currently providing 18 of domestic oil and 5 of

domestic gas production) the government estimates that the US OCS contains an additional 90 billion barrels of oil and 400 trillion cubic feet of natural gas yet to be discovered Industry thinks there is more History shows that once oil is discovered it will be

produced Burning this much oil and gas would release over 60 billion tons of CO2 to the atmosphere - a carbon bomb almost as large as the entire Alberta tars sands Just as with the tar sands (with 168 billion barrels of proven reserves) producing this US offshore oil could be game over for efforts to contain climate change

And this offshore carbon would dwarf the one or two billion tons of CO2 saved by the new power plant and vehicle rules by 2030 I f we want to stabilize climate and secure a sustainable future the carbon now safely buried beneath the seabed just as in the tar sands should be left right where it is - buried In fact a landmark 2013 study by the Carbon Tracker Initiative in the UK concluded that in order to avoid climate warming

exceeding the critical target of 2 degrees Celsius two-thirds of worlds remaining hydrocarbon reserves must be left in the ground That study co-authored with the London School of Economics warns that in the coming decade $6 trillion could be wasted in finding and developing unburnable carbon In the

Arctic large-scale offshore drilling would forever change the seascape and ecosystem The Arctic Ocean is a spectacular unique and fragile marine ecosystem home to polar bears walrus whales ice-seals and ancient human cultures

Already suffering extreme effects of climate change drilling in the Arctic Ocean would make matters worse by adding significant industrial disturbance including platforms pipelines tankers ports ship and air traffic underwater noise suspended sediment and of course oil spills with no hope of cleanup The areas remoteness severe weather and icy seas make drilling here a high-risk unacceptable gamble

- Asia Pivot
- - There is no risk of an Asian conflict
  - Chinarsquos peaceful and wonrsquot escalate the conflict
  - - Biodiversity
    - - Biggest cause of biodiversity loss is global warming
      - Conservation fails to solve for biodiversity-plan is insufficient
      - Study shows marine reserves alone donrsquot solve biodiversity ndash they donrsquot address the ldquobottom-uprdquo processes that lead to species extinction
      - Marine reserves donrsquot help biodiversity and even have negative impacts for biodiversity ndash their studies are flawed
      - Maintenance Issue Energy Use Costly and Enviro Risk
      - China
        
        US China relations high now multiple warrants
        
        Economy (bad now)
        
        Global economic growth will be steady this year
        
        
        US economy resilient
        
        Economy (good but will decline)
        
        The economy is improving now but recovery is still incomplete
        
        Regulations cause economic decline small businesses prove
        
        Economy (need to stabilize)
        
        Incentives fail due to marketplace confusion
        
        Fisheries
        
        Fisheries and oceans not headed for collapse
        
        Moreover overfishing cannot be solved without addressing alternate causes
        
        US fisheries are recovering now
        
        Global Warming (GW)
        
        Cooling is coming now ndash itrsquos fast and outweighs the effects of warming
        
        Warming inevitable even if we cut emissions to zeromdashmultiple studies confirm
        
        Even if we stopped CO2 emissions today temperatures would be constant or increase for another 50 years
        
        Hegemony
        
        No military benefit of alt energy- the qualificationss of this evidence overwhelms their evidence
        
        Alternate causes overwhelm or hegemony is resilient
        
        Navy
        
        The plan canrsquot finance shipbuilding due to already bad credit ratings
        
        Theyrsquore alternate cause such as a lack of funding is crushing carrier deployments
        
        Oil Dependency
        
        Foreign Oil Dependence is decreasing now we will be importing less than 40 within a decade
        
        The US is massively decreasing oil dependence now We will be independent by 2035 Gonzalez 12 Angela ldquoExpanded Oil Drilling Helps US Wean Itself From Mideast ldquo [httponlinewsjcomarticleSB10001424052702304441404577480952719124264html] June 27
        
        
        Proliferation
        
        Prolif solves arms race and prevents miscalculated war
        
        Nuclear states are not irrational
        
        Russia
        
        The affirmative team also encounters issue regarding their Russia advantage
        
        
        
        
        Soft Power
        
        When the US has soft power it means they have a major influence over the rest of the world by doing good things and helping out other countries While this seems like a great idea the truth ishellip
        
        US soft power already sufficient ndash global reaction to Obama speech proves
        
        Soft power doesnrsquot shape foreign policy decisions of others
        
        
        SRM
        
        SMRs wonrsquot be do anything until 2050 at the earliest
        
        There is no immediate risk- governments arenrsquot considering action
        
        International agreements in place are solving now- one of the leading advocates for better SRM technology concludes that ldquobecause some SRM activities might affect the ozone layer they could possibly be regulated under the Montreal Protocol on Substances That Deplete the Ozone Layerrdquo That treaty alone will prevent any risk of bad technology being deployed
        
        Climate changes are regional and food will always be a part of global trade This means that they are over-hyping the problem
        
        Spills Drilling
        
        Drilling in the Arctic isnrsquot inevitable
        
        Drilling is causes spills If we increase drilling then we will decrease spills The affirmativersquos plan isnrsquot changing how we drill therefore the problem isnrsquot going to be solved
        
        Drilling puts oceans at risk ndash spills
        
        This ensures more oil spills
        
        New oil drilling will ruin the Earthrsquos climate