Auto Demand Index Apr2012 - Full Report

7/31/2019 Auto Demand Index Apr2012 - Full Report

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TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index

April 2012 (Full Report)

70 Hilltop Road, Ramsey, NJ 07446Pho:201-986-1288 | Fax:201-986-0119

www.technometrica.com


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TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index April 2012 2

About Us

TechnoMetrica, founded in 1992, is a full-service Market Research consultancy that helps

businesses identify, develop and capitalize on growth opportunities. Spotting trends andsynthesizing insights that are well-defined, accurate, and forward-thinking is our passion.Research is the foundation for all our endeavors.

TechnoMetrica is a thinkery. We harness the power of creative thinking in everything wedo: to develop study designs that best answer research objectives; to communicate

research findings with impact; to develop effective marketing strategies and new productdevelopment. Our creations are the true testimonies that reflect our depth of thinking.Our clients are our ambassadors of our reputation.

In 1996, TechnoMetrica founded TIPP the TechnoMetrica Institute of Policy and Politics.Shortly thereafter, TIPP joined forces with Investors Business Daily (1996 to present) the nations fastest -growing financial publication to produce their highly respectedIBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index. TIPP also has a similar polling partnership with thePulitzer Prize-winning Christian Science Monitor (1998 to present).


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Table Of Contents

I. Methodology 4-5

II. Auto Demand Index 6-17A. Auto Demand Index (Overall)B. By RegionC. By Area TypeD. By AgeE. By Gender/Marital StatusF. By Parental Status and Race/Ethnicity

G. By Household Income

III. Demand For New Autos 18-24A. Vehicle Purchase/Lease Plans: OverallB. Vehicle Purchase Plans: Purchase Likelihood Over TimeC. New Vehicle Purchase/Lease Time FrameD. Vehicle Types MomentumE. Preferred Vehicle Types 3SMA

IV. Brand Preferences 25-32A. Top Ten Brands Consumers Would Buy Today 3 SMAB. Brand Preferences Over Time 3 SMA (Top Ten Brands)

V. Contact Information 33


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I. Methodology


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MethodologyTechnoMetricas Auto Demand Index is a forward looking early (monthly) indicator of consumers intent to purchase or lease a new vehicle within the next 6 months. The

index has been set to an initial value of 100 based on demand levels between February2007 and April 2007, the strongest selling season in the past decade.

The Auto Demand Index is based on the responses Americans give to the question: How likely is it that you will buy or lease a new vehicle within the next 6 months? Would you say

very likely, somewhat likely, not very likely or not at all likely?

We express purchase intent as an index score that varies as a linear function of thepercentage of consumers who are either very or somewhat likely to purchase orlease a new vehicle within the next 6 months.

Higher index readings correspond to greater demand or intent to purchase/lease newautomobiles.

The index and its movement is projectable to the national market for new automobiles,which consists of over 100 million U.S. households with drivers.

Each month, TechnoMetrica uses a monthly Random Digit Dial (RDD) telephone survey tocollect the survey data, with a sample size of 900+ respondents. The margin of error is

+/- 3.3 percentage points


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A. Auto Demand Index (Overall)B. By RegionC. By Area TypeD. By AgeE. By Gender and Marital StatusF. By Parental Status and Race/EthnicityG. By Household Income

II. Auto Demand Index, Purchase Outlook


7/33TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index April 2012 7

Auto Demand Index (Overall)While the Auto Demand Index recovered from its all timelow in March of 49 to 67 this month, it is still down

significantly from Januarys level of 105.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

A p r - 1 0

M a y - 1 0

J u n - 1 0

J u l - 1 0

A u g - 1

0

S e p - 1

0

O c t - 1

0

N o v - 1 0

D e c - 1 0

J a n - 1

1

F e b

- 1 1

M a r - 1

1

A p r - 1 1

M a y - 1 1

J u n - 1 1

J u l - 1 1

A u g - 1

1

S e p - 1

1

O c t - 1

1

N o v - 1 1

D e c - 1 1

J a n - 1 2

F e b

- 1 2

M a r - 1

2

A p r - 1 2

Auto Demand Index 3SMA

High Low

2007 129 79 2008 92 66

2009 95 55

2010 97 56

2011 94 49

2012 105 49

Base = All Respondents

3SMA= Three Months Simple Moving Average



Auto Demand Index Moving AveragesBase = All Respondents

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

A p r - 1

0

M a y - 1 0

J u n - 1

0

J u l - 1 0

A u g - 1

0

S e p - 1 0

O c t - 1

0

N o v - 1 0

D e c - 1 0

J a n - 1

1

F e b

- 1 1

M a r - 1 1

A p r - 1 1

M a y - 1 1

J u n - 1

1

J u l - 1 1

A u g - 1

1

S e p - 1 1

O c t - 1

1

N o v - 1 1

D e c - 1 1

J a n - 1

2

F e b

- 1 2

M a r - 1 2

A p r - 1 2

3SMA 6SMA 12SMA

3SMA= Three Months Simple Moving Average

6SMA = Six Months Simple Moving Average

12SMA = Twelve Months Simple Moving Average

The 3 Month Simple Moving average shows the purchase intent has broken its momentum.



-1.60

-1.10

-0.60

-0.10

0.40

0.90

1.40

1.90

2.40

-20

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

16

20

AutoSales

ADI

ADI Auto Sales

MomentumMomentum Measure = Fast Average (3-month) minus Slow Average (12-month) Base = All Respondents

After reaching an all time high in February 2012, the momentum is declining.

Difference between 3SMA-ADI and 12SMA-ADI

Difference between 3SMA autosales and 12SMA auto sales



ADI and U.S. Car sales have strongcorrelation.R: 0.5472Correlation: 0.7606

Correlation Between ADI and U.S. Auto Sales

9.6266667

10.626667

11.626667

12.626667

13.626667

14.626667

15.626667

16.626667

17.626667

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59

A c t u a

l a n

d F o r e c a s t e

d

Rows

Actual Forecasted

Training set Test set

# of rows: 49 10

CCR: n/a n/a

Average AE: 0.65287 1.7668947

Average MSE: 1.4180596 4.8434803

Tolerance type: Relative Relative

Tolerance: 10% 30%

# of Good forecasts: 43 (88%) 9 (90%)# of Bad forecasts: 6 (12%) 1 (10%)

Generated with Alyuda Forecaster XL

Summary


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By Area Type 3 SMABase = All Respondents

Q. How likely is it that you will buy or lease a new vehicle within the next 6 months?

6978

8589

10591

76

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 A-12

Suburban

72 77 7183 88 86 80

0

25

50

75

100125

150

O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 A-12

Urban

4453 60

81 86 7763

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 A-12

Rural

12 SMA = 77

12 SMA = 63

12 SMA = 77


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By Age 3 SMABase = All Respondents


134

110

68

90

120 129106

0255075

100125150175

200

O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 A-12

18-24

56 65 69 70 72 67 62

0255075

100

125150175200

O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 A-12

45-64

63 7895

119131

11093

0255075

100125150175

200

O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 A-12

25-44

32 35 3137 41 37

25

0255075

100

125150175200

O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 A-12

65+

12 SMA = 114

12 SMA = 34 12 SMA = 60

12 SMA = 92


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By Parental Status and Race/Ethnicity 3 SMABase = All Respondents


91 95 88101 116 109 94

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 A-12

Parents

4857 64

78 8372

60

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 A-12

Non-Parents

59

7694

134 140

111

87

0

25

5075

100

125

150

O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 A-12

Black/Hispanic

5862

63

71 75 6959

0

25

5075

100

125

150

O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 A-12

White

12 SMA = 93

12 SMA = 64

12 SMA = 87

12 SMA = 62


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By Household Income 3 SMABase = All Respondents


88 95107 110

119102 96

0

25

5075

100

125

150

O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 A-12

100K+

5861 70

7973 67 66

0

25

5075

100

125

150

O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 A-12

50K-100K

4253 61

76 74 77 64

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 A-12

30K-50K

56 6351

82

10493

63

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 A-12

Under 30K

12 SMA = 68

12 SMA = 93

12 SMA = 68

12 SMA = 64


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A. Vehicle Purchase/Lease Plans: OverallB. Vehicle Purchase Plans: Purchase Likelihood Over TimeC. New Vehicle Purchase/Lease Time FrameD. Vehicle Types Momentum

E. Preferred Vehicle Types 3 SMA

III. Demand For New Autos


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Vehicle Purchase PlansBase = All Respondents

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

A p r - 1 0

M a y - 1

0

J u n - 1 0

J u l - 1 0

A u g - 1

0

S e p - 1

0

O c t - 1

0

N o v - 1

0

D e c - 1 0

J a n - 1 1

F e b

- 1 1

M a r - 1 1

A p r - 1 1

M a y - 1

1

J u n - 1

1

J u l - 1 1

A u g - 1

1

S e p - 1

1

O c t - 1

1

N o v - 1

1

D e c - 1 1

J a n - 1 2

F e b

- 1 2

M a r - 1 2

A p r - 1 2

Likely 3 month SMA

April 2012

Likely11%

Not Likely89%

In April, the share of Americans whosaid they were likely to purchase orlease a new vehicle in the next sixmonths is 11%, up from 8% in March.

Vehicle Purchase Plans Over Time


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0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 A-12

Within 1 Month Between 2 and 3 Months Between 4 and 6 Months Not sure

Vehicle Purchase/Lease Time FrameApril 2012 Base = Potential Customers

Of these likely to purchase or lease, 16% saywill do so within one month, while 19% say

they will do so within 2 to 3 months, whilemost (61%) are planning to do so further out(within 4 to 6 months).

Q. Will you make your purchase within the next month, 2 to 3 months, or in 4 to 6 months?

Within 1Month

16%

Between 2& 3 Months

19%

Between 4& 6 Months

61%

Not Sure4%

In April, the percentage of likely vehicle buyers within one monthincreased to 16%.


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Gas Prices Delay Vehicle Purchase TimeframeBase = All RespondentsApril 2012

Yes27%

No73%

In April, 27% of respondents said they havedelayed the purchase of a new vehicle due togas prices.

Overall

41%32%

25%14%

18-24 25-44 45-64 65+

Those who said yesBy Age

26% 27% 28% 27%

Northeast Midwest South West

Those who said yes

By Region

35% 33%26% 23%

Under 30K 30K- 50K 50K- 75K Above 75K

Those who said yes

By Household Income

Q. What impact has today's gas prices had on your driving habits? Have you or are you delaying the purchase of

a new car that you wanted to buy within the next six months?


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Negative Change Positive Change

Vehicle Type MomentumApril 2012 Base = Potential Customers

Q. What type of vehicle are you most likely to buy or lease?

31%

13%11%

8%7% 6% 7%

14%

27%

12%10%

6%5% 5%

8%

20%

Mid-size Small SUV Pickup Full-size Minivan Sub-compact orMini

Large SUV Compact

12 Month Average 3 Month Average


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9% 8% 8%11%

14%

19% 20%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 A-12

Compact

Preferred Vehicle Types Over Time - 3 SMABase = Potential Customers

14% 12%7%

2% 4%4% 5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 A-12

Subcompact/Mini

33%

32%34%

31% 29%25% 27%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 A-12

Mid-Sized

7%9% 13%

14% 15%9%

6%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 A-12

Full-Sized

12 SMA = 6 12 SMA = 14

12 SMA = 8

12 SMA = 31


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Preferred Vehicle Types Over Time 3 SMABase = Potential Customers

9%12%

9% 9%

4% 4% 5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 A-12

Minivan

9% 9% 10%12%

9%11%

10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 A-12

Pickup Truck

8% 9% 9% 11%12% 14%

12%

0%

10%

20%

30%

O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 A-12

Small SUV

9% 8% 7% 6% 6%8% 8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 A-12

Large SUV

12 SMA = 7 12 SMA = 11

12 SMA = 712 SMA = 13


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A. Top Ten Brands Consumers Would BuyB. Brand Preference Over Time 3 SMA (Top Ten Brands)

IV. Brand Preferences


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19%

12% 12%

8%

5%4%

3%

2% 2% 2%

15%14% 14%

8%7%

5%3%

2% 2% 1%

Ford Chevrolet Toyota Honda Nissan GMC Hyundai Chrysler Dodge Subaru


Top Ten Brands Consumers Would Buy TodayApril 2012 Base = Potential Customers

Sorted by 3SMA


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By Vehicle OriginApril 2012 Base = All Respondents

Q. If you were to buy a vehicle today, what brand would you buy?

43%

31%

6%

41% 38%

7%

American Asian European

Likely to Purchase by Origin


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 A-12

Eur ope an Asian A me ric an


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Luxury vs. Non-LuxuryApril 2012 Base = All Respondents

Q. If you were to buy a vehicle today, what brand would you buy?

Luxury

10%

Non-Luxury

76%

NotSure14%

Luxury10%

Non-Luxury

78%

NotSure12%

3 Month Average

12 Month Average

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 A-12

Luxury Non-Luxury


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Brand Preference Over Time 3 SMA (Top 4 Brands)Base = Potential Customers

10% 10% 9% 8%11% 12%

14%

0%

10%

20%

30%

O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 A-12

Toyota

13%18% 17%

21%

15%19%

15%

0%

10%

20%

30%

O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 A-12

Ford

8% 9%13% 12%

7% 6%8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 A-12

Honda

11% 10%14% 15% 16% 14%

14%

0%

10%

20%

30%

O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 A-12

Chevrolet

12 SMA = 1912 SMA = 12

12 SMA = 812 SMA = 12


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Brand Preference Over Time 3 SMA (Brands 5-8)Base = Potential Customers

1% 1% 1%2% 2% 3% 2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 A-12

Chrysler

2% 3% 4%6% 6% 7% 5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 A-12

GMC

4% 3%1% 2% 1%

2% 2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 A-12

Dodge

4% 3% 2% 2%4% 6%

7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 A-12

Nissan

12 SMA = 4 12 SMA = 2

12 SMA = 212 SMA = 5


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Brand Preference Over Time 3 SMA (Brands 9-10)Base = Potential Customers

2% 1%2% 2% 2% 2% 1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 A-12

Subaru

2% 2% 3% 2% 3% 2% 3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 A-12

Hyundai

12 SMA = 3 12 SMA = 2


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Conclusions

The Auto Demand Index tumbles as a casualty to high gasoline prices. TechnoMetricas

research has shown high gasoline prices is the biggest wildcard car manufacturers facetoday. This is highly likely to produce a drop in car sales during the second quarter.

Only 11% of Americans are considering buying a new car within the next six months, upfrom 8% in March, but down significantly from the January high.

Persisting high gasoline prices could drive down demand and add to the financial troublesof the already vulnerable auto industry. Further, a sharp slump in car sales hasimmense potential to significantly affect the economy and employment.

Auto manufacturers and their dealers must proactively prepare for a sales slowdown.Auto factories take a long time to alter production rates and no manufacturer wants to

have too many cars in inventory. The same holds true for car dealers, who must financethe unsold cars in their inventory.

A rational energy policy, which acknowledges the realities of our resources, ourpreferences as consumers, and the realities of our environment, may be the best way toreduce Americas gas pains disappear.


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Contact Information

To request a full data set or for any questions, please contact us.

Contact: Raghavan Mayur

Address: 70 Hilltop Road, Suite 1001Ramsey, NJ 07446

Phone: 800-328-TECH (8324)201-986-1288

Fax: 201-986-0119

Email: [email protected]

Web: www.technometrica.com

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