TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET SECTOR UPDATE │ NOVEMBER 2016
www.harriswilliams.com
Investment banking services are provided by Harris Williams LLC, a registered broker-dealer and member of FINRA and SIPC, and Harris Williams & Co. Ltd, which is authorised andregulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Harris Williams & Co. is a trade name under which Harris Williams LLC and Harris Williams & Co. Ltd conduct business.
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www.harriswilliams.com
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET SECTOR UPDATE │ NOVEMBER 2016
AAPEX: AFTERMARKET TO GROW 3.6% ANNUALLY
The automotive aftermarket is expected to grow 3.6 percent annually over thenext six years, according to IHS Markit. Meanwhile, after reaching a new high of17.5 million units last year, new light vehicle sales are expected to level off andeven decline a bit to 17.4 million this year. Even though there will be more newcars on the road, compared with recent years, the average age of light vehicleswill extend to 11.6 years old this year, up from 11.5 years last year, and reach anaverage age of 11.8 years by 2019. This trend should lead auto repairers toreconsider the repair “sweet spot” as vehicles 12 years and older will continue tobe a large percentage of vehicles in operation.
Tire Business
CONSUMER REPORTS: ALL-NEW CARS HAVE MORE PROBLEMS
All-new or completely redesigned cars and SUVs tend to have the most problems.Basically, the latest thing is also the most trouble-prone. Take the Honda Civic, forinstance. The 2016 Civic is an all-new, totally re-engineered model. Car criticsloved it so much that it won the North American Car of the Year award in January,a prize given out by a jury of auto writers. But customers have experienced somany glitches and failures that the car ranked "Much worse than average" in thenew dependability survey.
CNN Money
1
CONTENTS
M&A TRANSACTIONS
PUBLIC MARKETS OVERVIEW
STOCK PRICE PERFORMANCE
OUR GROUP
CONTACTS
UNITED STATES
Frank MountcastleManaging [email protected]+1 (804) 915-0124
Jason BassManaging [email protected]+1 (804) 915-0132
Joe ConnerManaging Director [email protected]+1 (804) 915-0151
Jershon JonesDirector [email protected]+1 (804) 932-1356
Jeff BurkettDirector [email protected] +1 (804) 932-1334
Jeff KiddVice President [email protected] +1 (804) 915-0178
James O’MalleyVice President [email protected]+1 (804) 915-0165
EUROPE
Jeffery PerkinsManaging Director [email protected]+49 (0) 69 3650638 00
Over the past year, several forces have coincided to place considerable upwardpressure on personal automobile insurance costs. Insurer actions in response havedrawn considerable media and regulatory scrutiny. The dollar amount of claimsper vehicle per year, known in insurance as the loss cost, is rising. Loss costs are thelargest component of the price of auto insurance. They are also the most volatile.Whatever direction they move, rates will eventually follow. In recent years, totalloss costs have been moving considerably higher, rising 13 percent in the twoyears ending March 2016, more than 10 times the inflation rate.
Insurance Information Institute
MORE ACCIDENTS, LARGER CLAIMS DRIVE COSTS HIGHER
HW&CO. ASSISTS IN SALE OF GROHMANN ENGINEERING GMBH
Harris Williams & Co. has announced the pending sale of Grohmann EngineeringGmbH to Tesla Motors. Grohmann Engineering is a developer and manufacturer ofhighly customized, high-yield, multi-process modular assembly solutions for futureoriented end-markets. Elon Musk, founder and CEO of Tesla, noted, “This will reallybe our first acquisition of significance in our whole history. We thought it wasimportant that Tesla becomes, in part, a German company. That’s what this wasall about. We expect this to help drive exponential improvements in ourproduction process, in terms of both speed and quality of output, while cutting thecost-per-vehicle at the same time.”
Aftermarket News
Samsung Electronics Co. agreed to buy a U.S. automotive technologymanufacturer for $8 billion, the South Korean electronics giant’s biggest deal everand its latest attempt to branch out beyond smartphones in the wake of its GalaxyNote 7 fiasco. Samsung said it would pay $112 a share in cash for Stamford, Conn.based Harman International Industries Inc., an audio pioneer that has pushedaggressively into the automotive world. Samsung doesn’t plan to make cars itself,but sees automotive technology, and the broader shift toward connected,driverless vehicles, as a promising growth area to sell more of its semiconductors,display panels and mobile services.
Wall Street Journal
SAMSUNG CHARGES INTO AUTO TECH WITH $8 BILLION DEAL FOR HARMAN
WHAT WE’RE READING
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Date Target Business Description Acquirer
11/8/2016* Grohmann Engineering GmbH Develops automated manufacturing systems for batteries and fuel cells Tesla Motors, Inc.
11/3/2016* Metaldyne Performance Group,
Inc.
Prov ides transmission, engine, driveline, and safety critical applications
in passenger, commercial, and industrial vehicles
American Axle &
Manufacturing Holdings
10/31/2016 Autoteile Jakobs GmbH & Co. KG Manufacturers automotive replacement parts, accessories, and
industrial supplies
Hess Holding GmbH & Co.
KG
10/28/2016 JAC Products, Inc. Manufactures roof racks and other automotive body trim JAC Products, Inc. /Private
Group/
10/27/2016* Atwood Mobile Products LLC
/Seating & Chassis Component
Bus/
Designs and manufactures vehicles seating and chassis components Drew Industries, Inc.
10/12/2016* Transamerican Auto Parts Manufacturer and distributer of off-road Jeep and truck accessories Polaris Industries Inc.
10/4/2016 Andrew Page Ltd. Distributes vehicle parts and accessories LKQ Corp.
10/4/2016 Hoosier Racing Tire Corp. Prov ides a variety of racing tires Continental AG
10/3/2016 Winfield Consumer Products, Inc. Manufactures and distributes automobile products Truck Hero, Inc.
10/3/2016 REMY International, Inc. /Light
Vehicle Aftermarket Bus/
Manufactures starters, alternators and other related products TA Associates Management
LP
10/3/2016 Ravaglioli SpA Manufactures lifts, aligners, tire changers, wheel balancers and test
lanes
Kinderhook Industries LLC
9/30/2016 Trav is Body & Trailer, Inc. Manufacturer of medium and heavy dump body and hydraulic moist
equipment
Truck Bodies & Equipment
International, Inc.
9/6/2016 Keystone Powdered Metal Co. Designs and manufactures metal products for the automotive industry Sumitomo Electric Industries
Ltd.
9/2/2016* Accuride Corp. Manufacturers and supplies commercial vehicle components Crestv iew LLC
9/2/2016 International Tyre & Wheel
Solutions Ltd.
Distributes road tires for the waste, recycling and demolition industries Trelleborg AB
8/26/2016* Industrial Levorin SA Provides tires and offers repair serv ices for motorcycles and industrial
vehicles
Compagnie Générale des
Établissements Michelin SCA
8/24/2016 Britannia Tyres Ltd. Manufactures and supplies tires, brakes, exhausts and batteries Exhaust Tyres & Batteries
(Worcester) Ltd.
8/19/2016* Omega Acquisition Corp Provides aftermarket automotive truck and off road air conditioning
products
AEA Holdings LLC
M&A TRANSACTIONS
2
RECENT M&A TRANSACTIONS1,2,3
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET SECTOR UPDATE │ NOVEMBER 2016
*Denotes pending transactions
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(4.9%)
7.9%
12.8%
15.9%
Vehicle Manufacturers
Dealerships and Services
Providers
Suppliers
Distributors and Retailers
3.4%
4.7%
7.0%
16.1%
Suppliers
Vehicle Manufacturers
Distributors and Retailers
Dealerships and Services
Providers
(2.3%)
4.3%
4.3%
6.2%
Vehicle Manufacturers
Suppliers
Distributors and Retailers
Dealerships and Services
Providers
(2.1%)
(0.7%)
6.6%
13.9%
Suppliers
Vehicle Manufacturers
Distributors and Retailers
Dealerships and Services
Providers
6.1x
10.9x
11.7x
12.0x
Suppliers
Vehicle Manufacturers
Distributors and Retailers
Dealerships and Services
Providers
7.0x
8.6x
11.7x
11.8x
Suppliers
Vehicle Manufacturers
Dealerships and Services
Providers
Distributors and Retailers
PUBLIC MARKETS OVERVIEW
3
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
TEV / LTM EBITDA TEV / 2016P EBITDA
AVERAGE REVENUE GROWTH (2012 – 2015) AVERAGE REVENUE GROWTH (2015 – 2017P)
AVERAGE EBITDA GROWTH (2012 – 2015) AVERAGE EBITDA GROWTH (2015 – 2017P)
AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET SECTOR UPDATE │ NOVEMBER 2016
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(13.7%)
0.1%
0.5%
1.2%
4.8%
Dealerships and
Service Providers
Distributors and
Retailers
Vehicle
Manufacturers
Suppliers
S&P 500
(1.9%)
2.0%
3.2%
3.6%
6.5%
Distributors and
Retailers
S&P 500
Vehicle
Manufacturers
Dealerships and
Service Providers
Suppliers
(30%)
(25%)
(20%)
(15%)
(10%)
(5%)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16
Suppliers Distributors and Retailers
Dealerships and Service Providers Vehicle Manufacturers
S&P 500 Index
STOCK PRICE PERFORMANCE
4
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
(Indexed to November 18th, 2015)
TRAILING TWELVE MONTHS
MEDIAN % CHANGE (1 MONTH) MEDIAN % CHANGE (12 MONTH)
AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET SECTOR UPDATE │ NOVEMBER 2016
PAGE |
OUR GROUP
Harris Williams & Co. is a leading advisor to the transportation and logistics M&A market. Our Transportation & LogisticsGroup serves companies in a broad range of attractive niches, including third-party logistics (3PL), truck, rail, marineand air transportation, transportation equipment, and the automotive and heavy duty vehicle market.
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
RECENTLY CLOSED T&L TRANSACTIONS
DEEP EXPERIENCE ACROSS T&L SECTORS
MARINE TRANSPORTATION
NICHE TRANSPORTATION
TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT
RAIL & RAIL SERVICES
AUTOMOTIVE & HEAVY DUTY
VEHICLE
THIRD-PARTY LOGISTICS
AIR TRANSPORTATION
5
INDUSTRY UPDATE │ NOVEMBER 2016
has been acquired by
a portfolio company of
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in partnership with
and
RCL Services Group
has sold
tohas been acquired by
a portfolio company of
has been acquired by
a portfolio company of
has been acquired by
a portfolio company of
a portfolio company of
has been acquired by
a portfolio company of
has acquired
a portfolio company of
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a portfolio company of
has been acquired by
has merged with
an operating company of
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and
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has been acquired by
has been acquired by
a portfolio company of
Energy, Power& Infrastructure
IndustrialsHealthcare & Life Sciences
Transportation & Logistics
Aerospace, Defense & Government
Services
Business Services
Building Products & Materials
Technology, Media & Telecom
Specialty Distribution
Consumer
PAGE |
HARRIS WILLIAMS & CO. OFFICE LOCATIONS
UNITED STATES EUROPE
FrankfurtBockenheimer Landstrasse 33-3560325 FrankfurtGermanyPhone: +49 069 3650638 00
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NETWORK OFFICES
Beijing
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Transportation & Logistics
Harris Williams & Co. has a broad range of industry expertise, which creates powerful opportunities.Our clients benefit from our deep-sector experience, integrated industry intelligence andcollaboration across the firm, and our commitment to learning what makes them unique. For moreinformation, visit our website at www.harriswilliams.com/industries.
6
OUR FIRM
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET SECTOR UPDATE │ NOVEMBER 2016
PAGE |
Suppliers
BorgWarner Inc. $9,805 $35.68 6.1% (15.8%) $44.35 80.5% 7.8x 6.8x 6.8x 6.5x 6.4x
Cooper Tire & Rubber Company 1,997 38.45 6.9% (5.7%) 42.57 90.3% 5.3x 2.9x 3.5x 3.9x 4.2x
Dorman Products, Inc. 2,292 68.85 9.6% 49.3% 70.51 97.6% 9.7x 10.2x 13.6x 12.5x 11.5x
Federal-Mogul Holdings Corp 4,566 9.73 5.8% 30.6% 10.00 97.3% 8.0x 7.1x 7.2x 6.2x 5.9x
Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company 13,297 30.14 (3.1%) (10.9%) 35.30 85.4% 6.0x 5.3x 5.6x 5.2x 5.0x
Modine Manufacturing Company 673 11.85 11.3% 35.3% 12.75 92.9% 7.8x 5.2x 4.5x 5.9x 5.1x
Motorcar Parts of America, Inc. 540 26.08 (0.2%) (31.2%) 40.60 64.2% NM 11.6x 8.6x 5.9x 5.2x
Standard Motor Products, Inc. 1,205 50.46 6.1% 20.2% 51.56 97.9% 9.7x 9.0x 10.4x 9.9x 9.6x
Tenneco Inc. 4,441 57.65 8.0% 8.1% 59.88 96.3% 5.9x 5.1x 5.3x 5.2x 4.9x
Visteon Corporation 2,396 79.45 20.9% (34.0%) 121.65 65.3% 7.2x 14.4x 7.9x 7.3x 6.8x
Median 6.5% 1.2% 91.6% 7.8x 7.0x 7.0x 6.1x 5.5x
Distributors and Retailers
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. $12,931 $162.57 13.7% 0.1% $172.87 94.0% 10.4x 10.1x 9.5x 11.0x 10.5x
AutoZone, Inc. 27,798 755.24 0.2% (3.1%) 819.54 92.2% 13.3x 12.0x 11.8x 11.7x 11.1x
Genuine Parts Company 14,720 94.55 (1.9%) 6.2% 105.97 89.2% 10.8x 11.5x 11.8x 11.9x 10.7x
LKQ Corporation 12,991 32.25 (2.1%) 9.4% 36.35 88.7% 12.5x 14.2x 12.9x 12.3x 10.8x
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. 26,869 265.74 (4.4%) (1.2%) 292.84 90.7% 16.8x 14.6x 14.4x 14.0x 12.8x
U.S. Auto Parts Network, Inc. 107 2.94 (1.7%) 20.0% 4.49 65.5% NA NA 11.6x 8.1x 6.9x
Uni-Select Inc. 1,076 22.39 (7.9%) (4.5%) 27.45 81.6% 9.9x 11.7x 10.4x 10.0x 9.2x
Median (1.9%) 0.1% 89.2% 11.6x 11.8x 11.8x 11.7x 10.7x
Dealerships and Service Providers
Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. $2,989 $58.50 6.9% (17.4%) $77.33 75.6% 10.5x 9.5x 9.3x 9.3x 9.1x
AutoNation, Inc. 10,745 43.96 (8.2%) (30.3%) 64.93 67.7% 12.4x 11.7x 10.8x 10.7x 10.3x
Boyd Group Income Fund 1,329 66.12 1.0% 28.5% 68.41 96.7% 10.3x 14.9x 14.8x 14.4x 12.2x
CarMax, Inc. 21,479 55.23 8.2% (2.0%) 60.81 90.8% NM NM NM 17.6x 16.5x
Copart, Inc. 7,332 56.06 3.6% 53.2% 56.74 98.8% 12.0x 12.7x 16.1x 16.0x 14.4x
Group 1 Automotive, Inc. 4,126 69.90 13.5% (13.7%) 83.43 83.8% 10.8x 10.0x 10.0x 11.2x 10.8x
KAR Auction Services, Inc. 8,945 40.17 (8.2%) 10.1% 44.10 91.1% 10.9x 10.9x 12.5x 12.0x 10.9x
Lithia Motors, Inc. Class A 4,354 86.95 (6.9%) (26.6%) 126.56 68.7% 13.7x 10.2x 11.0x 11.0x 10.1x
Monro Muffler Brake, Inc. 2,288 57.00 (4.7%) (19.9%) 77.00 74.0% 16.9x 14.5x 14.5x 13.4x 11.8x
Penske Automotive Group, Inc. 9,171 48.44 6.9% 7.6% 50.63 95.7% 13.3x 12.3x 13.8x 13.4x 12.8x
Sonic Automotive, Inc. Class A 3,169 20.60 8.7% (14.7%) 24.87 82.8% 10.9x 10.1x 10.3x 11.0x 10.5x
Median 3.6% (13.7%) 83.8% 11.5x 11.3x 11.7x 12.0x 10.9x
PUBLICCOMPARABLES
7
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET SECTOR UPDATE │ NOVEMBER 2016
Stock Performance
Stock Price Change from 52-Week TEV / EBITDA EBITDA
($ in millions except per share data) TEV Current Prior Month Prior Year High % of High Nov-15 May-16 Current 2016P 2017P
Automotive Aftermarket
TEV / LTM EBITDA as of
PAGE |
Stock Performance
Stock Price Change from 52-Week TEV / EBITDA EBITDA
($ in millions except per share data) TEV Current Prior Month Prior Year High % of High Nov-15 May-16 Current 2016P 2017P
Automotive Aftermarket
TEV / LTM EBITDA as of
Vehicle Manufacturers
Bayerische Motoren Werke AG $154,871 $85.65 1.4% (19.2%) $113.02 75.8% 8.0x 7.5x 7.9x 9.9x 9.8x
Daimler AG 175,400 69.01 (2.3%) (18.2%) 91.03 75.8% 5.9x 7.1x 6.8x 9.1x 8.1x
Ford Motor Company 150,210 11.76 (1.1%) (19.3%) 14.76 79.7% 14.3x 8.7x 11.1x 12.0x 12.3x
General Motors Company 105,589 33.00 5.1% (8.7%) 36.88 89.5% 6.4x 5.8x 5.3x 6.1x 6.3x
Harley-Davidson, Inc. 16,491 58.14 7.3% 16.7% 61.35 94.8% 11.8x 10.8x 11.4x 13.2x 12.5x
Navistar International Corporation 6,637 29.00 29.7% 118.0% 29.25 99.1% 9.4x 9.2x 12.0x 12.0x 11.2x
Oshkosh Corp 5,450 66.18 24.2% 55.4% 67.41 98.2% 8.1x 9.2x 11.3x 10.7x 9.9x
PACCAR Inc 26,694 59.78 5.0% 17.1% 60.86 98.2% 7.2x 7.4x 8.7x 12.7x 13.6x
Toyota Motor Corp. 299,773 57.08 (1.0%) (8.0%) 64.60 88.4% 8.7x 7.8x 8.4x 11.1x 10.3x
Volkswagen AG Pref 197,349 123.88 (6.9%) 9.0% 155.19 79.8% 6.0x 8.2x 6.5x 6.5x 6.0x
Median 3.2% 0.5% 88.9% 8.1x 8.0x 8.6x 10.9x 10.1x
PUBLICCOMPARABLES
8
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET SECTOR UPDATE │ NOVEMBER 2016
PAGE |
Suppliers
BorgWarner Inc. $7,178 $7,435 $8,304 $8,025 $9,120 $9,434 3.8% 8.4% $1,106 $1,224 $1,385 $1,330 $1,500 $1,543 6.4% 7.7%
Cooper Tire & Rubber Company 4,201 3,439 3,421 2,959 2,912 3,022 (11.0%) 1.0% 526 394 436 541 508 490 1.0% (4.8%)
Dorman Products, Inc. 570 664 751 803 853 930 12.1% 7.6% 112 138 153 162 183 200 13.0% 10.9%
Federal-Mogul Holdings Corp 6,664 6,786 7,317 7,419 7,440 7,680 3.6% 1.7% 448 569 573 570 735 780 8.4% 17.0%
Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company 20,992 19,540 18,138 16,443 15,316 15,830 (7.8%) (1.9%) 1,824 2,107 2,251 2,349 2,553 2,687 8.8% 7.0%
Modine Manufacturing Company 1,376 1,478 1,496 1,353 1,345 1,362 (0.6%) 0.3% 101 121 110 114 114 131 4.0% 7.3%
Motorcar Parts of America, Inc. 406 259 302 369 426 476 (3.2%) 13.6% 0 46 38 49 91 102 NM 44.1%
Standard Motor Products, Inc. 949 984 980 972 1,062 1,128 0.8% 7.7% 89 107 113 92 122 125 1.4% 16.5%
Tenneco Inc. 7,363 7,964 8,420 8,209 8,540 8,992 3.7% 4.7% 649 707 752 785 847 914 6.5% 7.9%
Visteon Corporation 6,857 7,439 7,509 3,245 3,109 3,215 (22.1%) (0.5%) 493 590 663 265 326 349 (18.7%) 14.7%
Total $56,556 $55,988 $56,639 $49,796 $50,122 $52,069 (2.1%) 4.3% $5,348 $6,002 $6,475 $6,258 $6,978 $7,321 3.4% 12.8%
Distributors and Retailers
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. $6,205 $6,494 $9,844 $9,737 $9,502 $9,664 16.2% (0.4%) $847 $901 $1,244 $1,147 $1,174 $1,235 10.6% 3.8%
AutoZone, Inc. 8,604 9,148 9,475 10,187 10,636 10,636 5.8% 2.2% 1,841 2,002 2,081 2,223 2,358 2,358 6.5% 3.0%
Genuine Parts Company 13,014 14,078 15,342 15,280 15,345 15,860 5.5% 1.9% 1,122 1,117 1,273 1,266 1,249 1,354 4.1% 3.4%
LKQ Corporation 4,123 5,063 6,740 7,193 9,058 10,161 20.4% 18.9% 493 627 790 852 1,056 1,223 20.0% 19.8%
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. 6,182 6,649 7,216 7,967 8,581 9,183 8.8% 7.4% 1,154 1,287 1,465 1,743 1,909 2,102 14.7% 9.8%
U.S. Auto Parts Network, Inc. 304 255 284 291 303 318 (1.4%) 4.5% 8 5 5 6 13 15 (8.5%) 61.3%
Uni-Select Inc. 1,821 1,788 1,784 1,355 1,206 1,251 (9.4%) (3.9%) 90 92 104 94 108 115 1.5% 10.5%
Total $40,253 $43,474 $50,685 $52,010 $54,630 $57,073 6.6% 4.3% $5,554 $6,031 $6,961 $7,331 $7,868 $8,402 7.0% 15.9%
Dealerships and Service Providers
Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. $4,640 $5,335 $5,868 $6,588 $6,468 $6,618 12.4% 0.2% $209 $270 $313 $331 $320 $331 16.6% 0.1%
AutoNation, Inc. 15,669 17,518 19,109 20,862 21,721 22,507 10.0% 3.9% 737 843 909 998 1,009 1,053 10.6% 2.7%
Boyd Group Income Fund 435 561 764 918 1,026 1,201 28.3% 14.4% 30 40 77 79 92 110 38.5% 17.6%
CarMax, Inc. 10,963 12,574 14,269 15,150 15,843 17,124 11.4% 6.3% 529 595 724 804 1,232 1,312 15.0% 27.7%
Copart, Inc. 924 1,046 1,163 1,146 1,268 1,268 7.4% 5.2% 346 342 363 394 455 455 4.4% 7.5%
Group 1 Automotive, Inc. 7,476 8,919 9,938 10,633 10,913 11,084 12.5% 2.1% 269 346 375 407 371 381 14.8% (3.2%)
KAR Auction Services, Inc. 1,963 2,173 2,365 2,640 3,075 3,318 10.4% 12.1% 457 451 574 640 749 826 11.9% 13.6%
Lithia Motors, Inc. Class A 3,316 4,006 5,390 7,864 8,602 9,523 33.4% 10.0% 166 207 266 377 392 427 31.5% 6.5%
Monro Muffler Brake, Inc. 732 831 894 944 1,035 1,131 8.8% 9.5% 103 127 147 161 172 193 16.0% 9.5%
Penske Automotive Group, Inc. 13,164 14,705 17,177 19,285 20,189 20,360 13.6% 2.7% 419 498 574 645 682 725 15.4% 6.0%
Sonic Automotive, Inc. Class A 8,365 8,843 9,197 9,624 9,672 9,930 4.8% 1.6% 289 300 294 307 293 301 2.0% (0.9%)
Total $67,648 $76,512 $86,134 $95,653 $99,813 $104,065 13.9% 6.2% $3,553 $4,019 $4,617 $5,142 $5,767 $6,114 16.1% 7.9%
Revenue Revenue Growth EBITDA EBITDA Growth
($ in millions) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016P 2017P '12-15 '15-17P 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016P 2017P '12-15 '15-17P
Automotive Aftermarket
PUBLICCOMPARABLES
9
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET SECTOR UPDATE │ NOVEMBER 2016
PAGE |
Vehicle Manufacturers
Bayerische Motoren Werke AG $98,709 $100,976 $106,648 $102,215 $100,391 $102,802 1.2% 0.3% $20,286 $19,443 $21,734 $19,303 $15,562 $15,688 (1.6%) (9.8%)
Daimler AG 146,811 156,635 172,268 165,747 161,460 166,113 4.1% 0.1% 19,691 21,079 24,558 25,604 19,644 21,051 9.1% (9.3%)
Ford Motor Company 134,266 146,917 144,077 149,558 140,865 142,516 3.7% (2.4%) 12,958 13,183 11,324 15,557 12,193 11,193 6.3% (15.2%)
General Motors Company 152,256 155,427 155,929 152,356 163,660 161,998 0.0% 3.1% 10,670 12,708 8,853 15,518 17,440 15,901 13.3% 1.2%
Harley-Davidson, Inc. 5,581 5,900 6,229 5,995 5,318 5,430 2.4% (4.8%) 1,183 1,324 1,452 1,330 1,270 1,341 4.0% 0.4%
Navistar International Corporation 12,948 10,775 10,806 10,140 8,229 8,175 (7.8%) (10.2%) (374) (192) 295 567 551 603 NM 3.1%
Oshkosh Corp 8,181 7,665 6,808 6,098 6,279 6,279 (9.3%) 1.5% 500 644 622 523 520 520 1.5% (0.3%)
PACCAR Inc 17,051 17,124 18,997 19,115 15,885 15,216 3.9% (10.8%) 2,458 2,648 2,899 3,198 2,062 1,928 9.2% (22.4%)
Toyota Motor Corp. 266,131 256,480 247,980 236,533 238,628 243,825 (3.9%) 1.5% 30,332 35,160 38,164 36,457 26,058 28,371 6.3% (11.8%)
Volkswagen AG Pref 247,486 261,550 268,549 236,524 225,237 230,498 (1.5%) (1.3%) 29,739 30,822 33,686 24,722 30,857 32,524 (6.0%) 14.7%
Total $1,089,420 $1,119,448 $1,138,291 $1,084,281 $1,065,952 $1,082,852 (0.7%) (2.3%) $127,443 $136,819 $143,587 $142,779 $126,158 $129,119 4.7% (4.9%)
PUBLICCOMPARABLES
10
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET SECTOR UPDATE │ NOVEMBER 2016
Revenue Revenue Growth EBITDA EBITDA Growth
($ in millions) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016P 2017P '12-15 '15-17P 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016P 2017P '12-15 '15-17P
Automotive Aftermarket
PAGE |
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
SOURCES
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
1. FactSet.
2. MergerMarket.
3. Pitchbook.
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DISCLOSURES
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AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET SECTOR UPDATE │ NOVEMBER 2016