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Session 7: ICAO Forecasting activities Tehran, 20‐23 February 2017 Aviation Data and Analysis Seminar
Session 7:ICAO Forecasting activities
Tehran, 20‐23 February 2017
Aviation Data and Analysis Seminar
FORECASTING
ICAO : an independent and reliable source of information on civil aviation matters
Economic Development of air transport
EnvironmentalProtection
Security andFacilitation
Air Navigation Capacity & Efficiency
Safety
Sustainable Air transportDevelopment
MARKET ANALYSIS
STATISTICS
POLICIES
Monitoring Air ICAO SOs: Aviation Data a Vital Tool
Forecasting activities
Appendix E : Forecasting, planning and economic analyses
The Assembly: • Requests the Council to develop and update forecasts of future trends and
developments in civil aviation, and to make these available to Member States;• Requests the Council to develop and update one single set of long-term traffic
forecast, from which customized or more detailed forecasts can be produced for various purposes, such as air navigation systems planning and environmental analysis; and
• Requests the Council to keep forecasting methodologies and procedures reviewed and improved.
BackgroundAssembly Resolution A39‐14
Positive results in aviation are driven by sound decisions; Forecasts are essential for planning purposes
Decisions must be supported by good analysis and information
Good Analysis and Information must be based on good analytical models and data
Why Do We Need Forecasts?
Regions for forecasting purpose
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013
RPK* FTK* GDP**
Inde
x
RPK (index 100 in 1995)FTK (index 100 in 1995)GDP (index 100 in 1995)
7
*: World total scheduled services**: World Real GDP at Purchasing Power Parity
FTK
RPK
GDP
A relationship that expresses traffic in terms of GDP closely
replicates the historical traffic.
Traffic Forecasts
World Economy vs.Air Passenger and Cargo Traffic
8
Total International Passenger History and forecasts
* Compound Average Growth Rate
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Revenu
e Pa
ssen
ger K
ilomtres
(RPK
)(trillions)
International Domestic
History
Forecast
1995‐20125.2%
2012‐20324.6%
2012‐20424.5%
38%
62%
59%
41%
42%
58%
Scheduled Services
9
* Compound Average Growth Rate
Top 10 Passenger Route Groups in 2042
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000
Central South West Asia Domestic
North America Domestic
Central South West Asia ‐ Pacific SouthEast Asia
Central South West Asia ‐ Middle East
Intra Europe
Europe ‐ North America
Pacific South East Asia Domestic
Central South West Asia ‐ Europe
Intra Pacific South East Asia
Central South West Asia ‐ North America
Revenue Passenger‐Kilometres (RPK) (billion)
2042 2032 2012
7.6%
2.9%
7.4%
8.2%
2.5%
2.7%
5.1%
4.7%
5.1%
5.5%
8.8%
3.0%
7.9%
8.6%
2.5%
2.8%
5.3%
5.2%
5.3%
6.3%
12.5%
2.5%
6.8%
9.9%
8.9%
3.1%
8.1%
8.3%
4.7%
6.5%
CAGR*
2012‐2042 2012‐2032 1995‐2012
10
* Compound Average Growth Rate
Top Passenger Route Groups in 2042 for the Middle East Region
0 300 600 900 1,200
Central South West Asia ‐ Middle East
Europe ‐ Middle East
Middle East ‐ North Asia & PacificSouth East Asia
Africa ‐ Middle East
Middle East ‐ North America
Intra Middle East
Middle East Domestic
Africa & Middle East ‐ South America
Africa & Middle East ‐ CentralAmerica/Caribbean
Revenue Passenger‐Kilometres (RPK) (billion)
2042 2032 2012
8.2%
2.9%
3.5%
4.7%
3.4%
4.4%
4.4%
4.2%
4.3%
8.6%
3.1%
3.7%
4.9%
3.6%
4.7%
4.7%
3.8%
4.4%
9.9%
8.8%
11.3%
11.9%
12.0%
10.2%
5.8%
12.2%
19.2%
CAGR*
2012‐2042 2012‐2032 1995‐2012
Source: ICAOInternational
RPK distribution in 2030
Domestic
Long‐Term Air Traffic Forecasts
Some examples:• The European volcanic ash cloud• Snow storms in Europe• Japanese earthquake and tsunami• Europe’s sovereign debt crisis• Political unrest in the Middle East• Continuous higher oil prices• Increasing tax burdens placed on aviation, etc…
” killing the goose that lays the golden eggs “
Unpredictable Circumstances
2010 fleets
Annual training requirements
Traffic forecasts2030 staff
Staff ratiosFleet growth rates
2030 fleets
A/C movementsforecasts
Shortage or surplusAttrition rates
Annual training capacities
The Personnel Requirement Forecasting Process
Pilots needs and training capacity in 2030
1)Estimate of average annual needs for 2010 to 2030 period based on various world fleet categories: Regional and business jets, Turboprops, Single aisle, Twin aisles and Freighters
2)Training capacity is based on current figures without any incremental effect due to planned additional capacities
Future Licensed Personnel: Surplus or Shortage
ICAO vision forNext Generation Aviation Professionals
• The need for reliable statistics
• The « Best and the Brightest »
• Facilitating the use of competency-based approaches
• Removing regulatory obstacles
• A coordinating mechanism is required
Available at:http://store1.icao.int
Licensed Personnel Forecasts
© ICAO All rights reserved.
This document and all informationcontained herein is the sole property ofICAO. No intellectual property rights aregranted by the delivery of this document orthe disclosure of its content. Thisdocument shall not be reproduced ordisclosed to a third party without priorpermission of ICAO. This document and itscontent shall not be used for any purposeother than that for which it is supplied.
The statements made herein are based onthe mentioned assumptions and areexpressed in good faith. Where thesupporting grounds for these statementsare not shown, ICAO will be pleased toexplain the basis thereof.
