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BACK-TO-SCHOOL TRENDS & INSIGHTS: OFFICE & SCHOOL SUPPLIES
The NPD Group, Inc. | Proprietary and confidentialDocument classification: Client/Third Party Confidential
Agenda
2
Tax Free Holidays & School Starts
Ecommerce Season & Growth
Private Label Penetration
Extension of Season
Convenience
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3
Back-to-School Accounts for 48% of Yearly Traditional Supplies Unit Store SalesUnit Share by Quarter – Traditional Supplies
Source: The NPD Group/ Weekly Tracking Service/52 WE January 02 2016/Excluding Janitorial and Breakroom.
Organization/Tax
2nd Semester BTS
Graduation
Final Exams
Back-to-School
Season
Halloween
Holidays
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Stores
Online
23% 20% 30% 27%Unit Share
by Quarter
18% 15% 48% 19%Unit Share
by Quarter
Online
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Birth Of A Season OnlineBack-to-school ecommerce spend is taking shape; a more prominent seasonal arc is forming from the first week of August and lasting through mid-September.
Source: The NPD Group/ Weekly Tracking Service/Excluding Janitorial and Breakroom.
Third Quarter Ecommerce Weekly Dollar Spend
201420152016
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
Jul 09 Jul 16 Jul 23 Jul 30 Aug 06 Aug 13 Aug 20 Aug 27 Sep 03 Sep 10 Sep 17 Sep 24 Oct 01
Mil
lio
ns
2013
2017
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Back-To-School Season to Date Channel Dollar Spend
For six weeks end August 5, $1.7B has been generated in Office Supplies, down -1.3% vs PY. As season progresses clear distinction between Brick & Mortar and Ecommerce trends continue.
$0$1$2
Retail Brick & Mortar
Ecommerce
Drug
Food
-60 -20 20
Source: The NPD Group/ Weekly Tracking Service/Excluding Janitorial and Breakroom/ 4WE July 22 2017
2017 Season to Date Growth ($MM)2017 BTS Season to Date
Dollar Sales ($B)
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Back-To-School Season Retail Dollar Sales2014 2015 2016
Source: The NPD Group/ Weekly Tracking Service/13WE Sep 2016/Excluding Janitorial and Breakroom.
Dollars Units
Actual Units ASP
Units down in Jul and Aug; Shifting to SepConsumers spending more later
Impact of Technology & Digital Alternatives ASP up in Jul and Aug; down in Sep
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Those who live in the South are significantly more likely than their counterparts to shop on tax free shopping weeks when shopping for BTS, driven by fact that majority of states in this region offer tax-free shopping.
The South Most Impacted by Tax-Free Incentives
Q. Which one of the following statements best describes you as it relates to back-to-school shopping? Source: The NPD Group/ LAB Series: Back to School May 2017
38% 40%
11%
48%
3% 4%
9%
3%
38%39%
52%
33%
21% 17%28%
16%
Northeast (n=964) Midwest (n=1,024) South (n=1,1786) West (n=944)
% Who Purchase During Tax Free Shopping Weeks
Wait for these specific
dates to make BTS
purchases
Purchase whenever it is
most convenient
Purchase prior to the tax
free holiday
None of the above
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Back-To-School Tax Free Dates Shifting & Decreasing
0
5
10
15
7/22 7/29 8/5 8/12 8/19 8/26
2014 2015 2016 2017
2017 date shifts for Alabama (earlier) and Texas (later). Ecommerce sites can comply with tax-free offerings.
-$18.1M
Impact
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Early and Late School Start DMA DifferencesEarly and late school starts influence when consumers are purchasing supplies and can drive total industry sales trends.
Source: The NPD Group/ Weekly Tracking Service/Excluding Janitorial and Breakroom
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
Atlanta Phoenix New York Washington D.C.
Mil
lio
ns
Encased Pencil Store Sales by an Early & Late Start DMA
Early Start Late Start
2014 2015 7WE Aug 20 2016 2016
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Back-To-School Season Category Dollar SpendWriting, coloring/art, and office essentials did not grow at the same level in 2016 as 2015. 2017 Season to Date office essentials driving growth, colored pencils in decline.
$0$200$400
Writing Instruments
Office Paper
Presentation & Reference
Filing & File Storage
Office Essentials
Coloring & Art
Mailing & Shipping
Dated Products
Self-Stick Notes
Envelopes
Shredders
Specialty Tape
-$40 -$20 $0 $20 $40
Millions
Source: The NPD Group/ Weekly Tracking Service/Excluding Janitorial and Breakroom/ 6 WE Aug 5 2017
2017 Season to Date Growth ($MM)2017 BTS Season to Date
Dollar Sales ($MM)
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Less Private Label in Higher Growth Categories
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
Private Label Dollar Share Category Dollar Volume Chg vs PY
Private Label
% of Category
Category $
Volume
% Chg vs PY
Categories with the strongest growth tend to have less penetration of Private Label products.
Source: The NPD Group/ Weekly Tracking Service/Excluding Janitorial and Breakroom/ 6 WE Aug 5 2017
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Consumers Are Seeking Convenience…
Source: The NPD Group/ LAB Pre-Season Report 2017
Back to
School Kits
Online List
Fulfillment
…but what
about
impulse?
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Thank youThank you
13
Tia Frapolli
President US Office Supplies
Email: [email protected]
Phone: 847-696-7271