Background and Prospects of Russian Oil and Gas Industry Development
Lev Feodosyev
2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1945
1948
1951
1954
1957
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Million bbl per day
World production of crude
actual forecast
Production
Price of Arab light crude
World Oil Prices$/bbl
Overview of Energy Industry Development
3
Changes in crude demand and productionby region
Crude GDP growth, %Crude reserves,
billion tonsCrude production,
Million tons pa
Domestic consumption,Million tons pa
Exported crude,Million tons pa
Saudi Arabia 5.00 35.70 463.00 75.00 407.00
RUSSIA 6.4 34.41 470.00 207.00 252.00Iran 6.30 17.84 205.00 70.00 133.00
UAE 5.70 13.33 130.00 15.00 135.00
Kuwait 6.80 13.17 126.00 15.00 108.50
Venezuela 16.80 10.64 140.00 25.00 115.00
Norway 3.30 1.35 173.00 10.00 183.00
985 11061231 1315
689729
776 794
426449 453149171 199
247375
503636
989
1260
1651
2044
398128
3676
4309
5074
5766
2002 2010 2020 2030
OtherChinaRussiaAPREuropeNorth AmericaTotal
World supply of crude by country Forecast of worldwide consumption of crude*
0 100 200 300 400 500
Saudi Arabia
Russia
Norway
UAE
Iran
Venezuela
Kuwait
Nigeria
Mexico
Iraq
Liberia
Kazakhstan
Million tons
Million tons
*Source: Ministry of Industry and Energy of the RF
4
Changes in nat gas demand and production by region
Nat Gas GDP growth, %Reserves of natgas, trillion cu m
Nat gas production, billion cu m
Domestic consumption, billion cu m
Nat gas exports, billion
cu m
RUSSIA 6,4 48 639 454 185
Iran 6,30 26,70 85 79 6
Indonesia 4,90 2,60 87 58 40
Algeria 6,10 4,80 90 27 63
Norway 3,30 1,72 64 5 59
World supply of gas by country
720 810 930 990
480 570690 790130
180220
250
380440
510580
4070
130190
610
870
1290
1720
2580
3180
4060
4860
2002 2010 2020 2030
Other
China
Russia
APR
Europe
North America
Total
Forecast of worldwide consumption of gas*
0 50 100 150 200
Russia
Algeria
Norway
Indonesia
Mexico
Kazakhstan
Brasil
Nigeria
UAE
Billion cu m
Billion cu m
*Source: Ministry of Industry and Energy of the RF
5
Russia is an economically and politically reliable strategic partner capable of supplying a wide range of fuel and energy products to satisfy other countries’ needs in terms of achieving economic growth targets
on the long-term basis.
Development Targets
35
2560
25
6
652004
2010
2020
2030
197
215
260
280
240
254
254
2352004
2010
2020
2030
Nat gas
Crude
0
20
90
110
10
35
60
60
2004
2010
2020
2030
Forecast of crude and natural gas supplies to North America
Forecast of crude and natural gas supplies to EUROPE
Forecast of crude and natural gas supplies to APR
6
Development potential
Reserves of С1+С2 gas, billion cu mEaster Siberia
Crude production in Easter Siberia*
млн. т
1240,9
54,1169,70
13,4107,5
16,7
20
0,5
1,4
35,4
6,6
10,4
5,7
2,4
4,7
16,2
15,2
10,6
6,3
7,8
4
2,66,14464,8165,4129,9
Chayandinskoye Talakanskoye SrednebotuobinskoyeTas-Yurkyakhskoye Tympouchikanskoye VerkhnevilyuchanskoyeIktekhskoye Vilyuisko-Dzherbinskoye IrelyakhskoyeAlinskoye Machobinskoye BessyuryakhskoyeNelbinskoye Mirninskoye SeveronelbinskoyeStakhanskoye Bysakhtakhskoyer Khotosho-MurbayskoyeOtradninskoye Mastakhskoye SrednevilyuskoyeSrednetyungskoye Sobolokh-Nedzhelinskoye TolonskoyeBadarinskoye Nizhnevilyuiskoye NizhnetyukyanskoyeAndylakhskoyer
resources - D1
С3
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
80,0
90,0
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
Satellite field
Kuyumbinskoye field
Yuruvbcheno-Tokhomskoye field
Verkhnechonskoye field
Talakanskoye field
7
Breakdown of costs related to supplying crude to the APR markets from Eastern Siberia
Optimistic evaluation, which does not take into account capital costs
URALS 30 $/bbl
$/ton
~ 50$/ton
URALS 50 $/bbl
Prod
uctio
n co
sts
Extr
actio
n ta
x
Oth
er ta
xes
Tran
spor
t cos
ts
Tran
sshi
pmen
t
Expo
rt d
uty
Ave
rage
pro
fits
in th
e in
dust
ry
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
1
Extr
actio
n ta
x
Oth
er ta
xes
Expo
rt d
uty
Prod
uctio
n co
sts
Ove
rall
tran
spor
t cos
ts
Tran
sshi
pmen
t
Ave
rage
pro
fits
in th
e in
dust
ry
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
1
365$/ton 369$/ton
$/ton
219$/ton240$/ton
80,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
н о м и н а л ь н ы е д и с к о н т и р о в а н н ы е
-1600-1400-1200-1000
-800-600-400-200
0200
2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
$/barrel
Efficiency of investments in development of new fields in Eastern Siberia
-10,0
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
н о м и н а л ь н ы е д и с к о н т и р о в а н н ы е
Net Capex CT and property tax Opex
MET Transport costs Export Duty Brent-Urals spread
$/barrel
-2000
-1500
-1000
-500
0
2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033
9
Administrative and fiscal incentives
1.1. Tax holiday for new field developersTax holiday for new field developers2.2. MET rate differentiation based on the MET rate differentiation based on the
degree of a fielddegree of a field’’s depletions depletion3.3. New principles of imputing excise duty New principles of imputing excise duty
on petroleum products to stimulate on petroleum products to stimulate production of higher quality fuelsproduction of higher quality fuels
4.4. Zero import duties on refining Zero import duties on refining equipmentequipment
5.5. Adoption of technical regulations for Adoption of technical regulations for motor motor gasoilgasoil, diesel and other petroleum , diesel and other petroleum products and lubes, to be designed by products and lubes, to be designed by the Ministry of Industry and Energy of the Ministry of Industry and Energy of the RFthe RF
6.6. Institution of an exchange for crude and Institution of an exchange for crude and petroleum products tradingpetroleum products trading
7.7. PublicPublic--private partnershipprivate partnership
10
Oil field Gas condensate field
Gas refineryOil refinery
PETROCHEMICALINDUSTRY
REGIONAL EFFECTREGIONAL EFFECT
CLUSER EFFECTCLUSER EFFECT
FEDERAL EFFECTFEDERAL EFFECT
1
2
3
Filling stations
Transport
Industrial users
Municipal servicesAgriculture
Household needs
MendeleyevskMendeleyevskKazanKazan’’
AlmetyevskAlmetyevskNIZHNEKAMSKNIZHNEKAMSK
Complementaryindustries
A plan for constructing a petrochemical facility in Tatarstan)