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Prospects for Russian Democracy
Dmitry Medvedev was born in Moscow in 1965
High school graduate
With high school sweetheart Svetlana Linnik
A kitchen of his own
2000s: Key aide to President Putin
May 7, 2008: Dmitry Medvedev is inaugurated as Russia’s 3d President
In the 2000s, Russian state capacity has been partially repaired
Putinism has consolidated Russian capitalism, protected it from internal challenges, and returned Russia to the rank of major international actors
But huge problems remain unsolved, while new problems have been created
The structure of Russia’s exports: 93% raw materials
The challenges Modernization of the economy – from hydrocarbons to
hi-tech Rebuilding infrastructure Social investments: health, education, other social
programs to improve quality of life Is Russia up to these challenges? The answer lies in the state of Russian politics
Russia is in a conservative phase In a triple sense:
The new ruling class is determined to maintain its wealth and power
Society is deeply split by social inequality The public is depoliticized and values stability
And yet, Russia must modernize without delay Can Russia’s modernization be carried out while society is
in this condition?
ROLE OF THE STATE Economic growth is a result of not just higher oil prices Also – result of a restoration of the Russian state The state needed to be rebuilt That rebuilding was done by very crude methods
It involved increasing abandonment of liberal-democratic norms
And it resulted in consolidation of bureaucratic capitalism
Bureaucracy is bigger, more powerful, more corrupt, and less accountable
Among the bureaucrats, the Enforcers (KGB, Inc.) have gotten too strong, other elites resent this
Rule of law, always an endangered species in Russia, suffered further setbacks
Business climate in Russia (poll of 1200 executives, WCIOM, Nov.07) 54% - report successful development of their businesses On 11 indicators of “business climate” – “bad’ or “so-so”
Especially hard to start a new business Government policy is criticized Bureaucracy, corruption
OVERWHELMING: need for clear and strictly observed rules (63%)
WCIOM poll, Oct.08 What kind of state do you want Russia to be? 42% - a democratic system with a market economy (down
6% in 10 years) 16% - a socialist state with a communist ideology (down
4%) 21% - a state with its own type of system and its own path
(up 3%) 3% - monarchy and empire (down 3%)
WCIOM poll, Jan.08 55% - country going in the right direction
20% - not (down 10% from 2004) 56% - Russia needs stability, evolutionary reforms
29% - radical reforms (down 10% from 2004) 51% - revise results of privatization, unfair and illegal
29% - No (down from 36%) 51% - all peoples of Russia must have same rights and
opportunities 37% - interests of ethnic Russians must be uppermost
56% - treat post-Soviet states as all others 25% - Russia must try to dominate
Deep depoliticization of the society Russians are becoming increasingly private people
I’ll take care of myself Voting doesn’t change anything Let the government do its work Trust the President
Opposition movements are marginalized Still, upsurges of activism occur with increasing frequency And the conservative phase may be coming to an end
The Medvedev challenge: Impossible to deal with the problems without reforming the
state No effectiveness without accountability No accountability without rule of law No rule of law without electoral democracy
Medvedev: looking for a “third path” between democracy and authoritarianism
The issues: courts, media, political rights On these issues, there can be liberalization
But: Elites fears of instability, loss of control The Enforcers’ influence The military-industrial complex
Will Medvedev turn to the people for support? Will he try to wake them up? One way or another, political struggles are likely to become
more open and intense It is an open question who will win
Liberals are unpopular Enforcers may appeal to the people, too
Their backup option: Fortress Russia
Putin’s politics of order was popular both with the elites and with the public
As an emergency program to pull Russia out of its transition crisis
In the meantime, Russian leaders continued to proclaim their commitment to democracy, while making more and more “temporary exceptions” from it
The Kremlin’s perspective on democracy in Russia: First, economic recovery with political stability Then, the rise of the middle class Then, a full-fledged liberal democracy
Self-interests of the ruling class are obvious in this approach: the elites are determined to keep their power and wealth, and reject any notions of democracy which would challenge them
The Dual Power regime has checks and balances on any liberal reforms
Medvedev and Putin are working in tandem But frictions and conflicts between them are inevitable Different interests, different priorities, different groups
Trends to watch Next round of elections Ethnic tensions The economic situation
Anti-Putin demo, December 2010: http://www.youtube.com/watch?
v=iLinYsJeVms
Moscow riot, December 2010: http://www.youtube.com/watch?
v=eF2OFrgxxJE&feature=related http://www.youtube.com/watch?
v=dk8iZGjlgKY
President Dmitry Medvedev addresses the Russians on the eve of New Year 2011:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TpmcAbIiblw