BALTIMORE & ITS REGIONAL: THE ROAD AHEADLenneal J. Henderson

June 11, 2009

RECASTING OUR URBAN THEMESRECASTING OUR URBAN THEMES

RECASTING OUR URBAN THEMESRECASTING OUR URBAN THEMES

GREEN VALUES HEALTHY SAFE EQUITABLE EFFICIENT NEIGHBORHLY

THE BALTIMORE REGION IS NO NEW THE BALTIMORE REGION IS NO NEW CONCEPTCONCEPT

1. The 1990 Stanton Report2. The 1991 Peirce Report3. The work of the Greater Baltimore

Committee4. The Committee on the Region of the

Citizen’s Housing & Planning Association

5. The Hopkins/UMBC Forum

Dimensions of the RegionDimensions of the Region

Demography Socioeconomic Dynamics Institutional Dynamics Policy Orientations Cultural Shifts Global Dynamics Value Shifts

PERSPECTIVES IN THIS PRESENTATIONPERSPECTIVES IN THIS PRESENTATION

• THE BALTIMORE REGION MUST BE UNDERSTOOD IN THE CONTEXT OF THE ENTIRE STATE OF MARYLAND

• CURRENT TRENDS ARE COUNTERINTUITIVE, E.G.• THE REPOPULATION OF BALTIMORE CITY• SOME PROGRESS IN BALTIMORE CITY’S

COLLABORATION WITH THE SUBURBS• ITS NOT EASY BEING GREEN• STANDARDS FOR EACH OUR THEMES CONTINUE TO

CHANGE• THE RECENT ECONOMIC CRISIS CALLS FOR A NEW

ECONOMIC MODEL AND PARADIGM

2000 Population by Jurisdiction

0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000700,000800,000900,000

1,000,000

Maryland 2000 Census FactsMaryland 2000 Census Facts

These five largest jurisdictions account for 2/3’s of Maryland’s citizens

Montgomery and Prince George’s Counties together account for nearly 1/3 of our state’s 2000 population

Allegany County and Baltimore City were the only two jurisdictions in our state that lost population during the 1990’s.

Maryland 2000 Census FactsMaryland 2000 Census Facts

Southern Maryland experienced the most rapid growth during the 1990’s (23.1%) but its growth just exceeded 50,000

In contrast, the Baltimore Region grew by only 7% but that was 164,000 person increase. Suburban Washington grew by over 233,000 people or 14.3%

1990-2000 Population Growth in Maryland by Region

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

BaltimoreRegion

SuburbanWashington

SouthernMaryland

WesternMaryland

Upper EastenShore

LowerEastern Shore

Region

Popu

latio

n

Maryland 2000 Census Age Maryland 2000 Census Age Structure FactsStructure Facts

Largest absolute and percentage increase in population was the 44-54 age group (233,231) or 44.7%

The 35-44 age group was next largest with a 139,150 person increase

School age population (5-19 years old) grew by 199,000 or 21%, but there are fewer kids under 5 now than in 1990

Significant decrease in the 20-34 year olds of 200,000 or –16.3 percent during the 1990’s

1990 - 2000 Population Change in the Maryland by Age Group

-200,000

-150,000

-100,000

-50,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

0-5 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-59 60-64 65-74 75-84 85+

Age Cohort

Maryland 2000 Census FactsMaryland 2000 Census Facts

Median age of Marylanders was 36.0 years old and higher than the the US median age of 35.3 years old

All Maryland “baby boomers” are older than the Maryland and US median age

Maryland 2000 Census FactsMaryland 2000 Census Facts

All of the population growth for Maryland during the last decade was accounted for by “people of color”

Fifty-six percent of the state’s growth was an increase in the Black population (287,512 or 24.2% increase)

Latino population growth was 102,814 for an 82.2% increase

Maryland 2000 Census FactsMaryland 2000 Census Facts

Asian population increase was 72,781 statewide for a 52.7% jump

The White population declined by nearly 2,700 statewide, but the Non-Hispanic White population declined by 40,000. This White population loss occurred in the Baltimore and Suburban Washington Regions

Maryland 2000 Census FactsMaryland 2000 Census Facts

Blacks comprise 28% of the state’s population while Asians constitute 4.0% and the Latino population makes up 4.3% of our state’s total

The largest Asian group is Asian Indian and the largest Latino groups are “Other Latino” [primarily Central American] followed by Mexican

Maryland 2000 Census Family Maryland 2000 Census Family and Household Tidbitsand Household Tidbits

“Nuclear Family” – Married with kids makes up only 23.3% of all households

Increase in single-parent households Male-headed households grew faster but

Female-Headed households outnumber Male-Headed households by nearly 7 to 1

Thirty percent of all households with own kids under 18 are single-parent households, up from 12.8% in 1970

Maryland 2000 Census Family Maryland 2000 Census Family and Household Tidbitsand Household Tidbits

Non-family households make up 31% of Maryland’s households

Almost 80% of non-family households are one-person households

The elderly constitute nearly a third of all one-person households

Maryland’s homeownership rate reached 67.7% and is higher than the US

Education, Income, and Poverty Education, Income, and Poverty in Maryland, 2000in Maryland, 2000

High educational attainment state: 31.5% of Marylanders (25 years old or over) possess a Bachelor’s Degree or higher (US is 20.2%)

Maryland median household income is $52,436 (#4 in the US) vis-à-vis US median household income of $41,343

Education, Income, and Poverty Education, Income, and Poverty in Maryland, 2000in Maryland, 2000

The poverty rate in Maryland and the US declined during the 1990’s

9.3% of Marylanders lived in poverty in 2000 (12.5 percent in the US)

Fifty-nine percent of families living below the poverty line in Maryland are Female-headed households with and without kids under 18

Education, Income, and Poverty Education, Income, and Poverty in Maryland, 2000in Maryland, 2000

12.8% of poor people in Maryland were children under 18 years old

15.6% of poor people in Maryland were children under the age of 5

National Data since 2000National Data since 2000 Real median income remained unchanged

between 2003 & 2003 for all family types in the U.S. ($43,318) following 2 years of decline

Lowest income quintile declined to 3.4% and lowest 20% declined from $18,326 to $17,984 between 2002 and 2003

Poverty in U.S. was 12% in 2003, up from 12.1% in 2002

National Data since 2000National Data since 2000 In 2003, 35.9 million people in poverty, up

1.3 million from 2002 Poverty rate for families was 10% in 2003

and 7.6 million families, up from 9.6% and 7.2 million families in 2002

In 2003, 45 million Americans were uninsured (health) or 15.6% of the population

11.4% of all children are uninsured and 19.2% of children in poverty are uninsured

Maryland changes since 2000Maryland changes since 2000 Median household income is $57,218 versus

U.S. $43,564 in 2003 (Maryland now #2) Maryland percentage in poverty 2002-2003

average is 8%, up from 2001-2002 average of 7.3%

Maryland percentage of people without health insurance 200-2003 average is 13.6%, up from 2001-2002 average of 12.8%

From Census ACS, the poverty rate and the number of individuals and families in poverty declined between 2000 and 2003

Population Change in Maryland by Jurisdiction, 2000-2004

-20,000 -10,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000

Allegany County

Anne Arundel County

Baltimore City

Baltimore County

Calvert County

Caroline County

Carroll County

Cecil County

Charles County

Dorchester County

Frederick County

Garrett County

Harford County

Howard County

Kent County

Montgomery County

Prince George's County

Queen Anne's County

Somerset County

St. Mary's County

Talbot County

Washington County

Wicomico County

Worcester County

Persons

Percent Change in Population Growth in Maryland by Jurisdiction, 2000-2004

-5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0%

Allegany County

Anne Arundel County

Baltimore City

Baltimore County

Calvert County

Caroline County

Carroll County

Cecil County

Charles County

Dorchester County

Frederick County

Garrett County

Harford County

Howard County

Kent County

Montgomery County

Prince George's County

Queen Anne's County

Somerset County

St. Mary's County

Talbot County

Washington County

Wicomico County

Worcester County

Growth Rate

Renter and Owner Costs as a Percent of Household Income, 2000

35.0%

37.0%

23.0%

31.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

Maryland Renters African-American Renters Maryland Owners African-American Owners

Share of Maryland Corrections and Juvenile Institution Inmates by Race, 2000

27,149, 72%

10,813, 28%

African-American Other Races

2004 Maryland High School 2004 Maryland High School Assessment Results by RaceAssessment Results by Race

(Percent Passing)(Percent Passing)

Subject

African-American Asian White

English 34.9 70.8 64.8

Biology 38.4 79.7 75.0

Government 49.0 82.7 76.3

Algebra 35.2 80.7 73.4

Source: mdk12.org/data/hsa website, April 2005.

Share of Maryland African-American Population by Jurisdiction, 2003

Prince Georges, 543,732, 36%

Baltimore City, 408,077, 26%

Baltimore County, 171,398, 11%

Montgomery County, 137,164, 9%

Anne Arundel County, 67,529, 4%

Rest of Maryland, 219,481, 14%

... African-American spending power is expected to reach $964.6 billion by 2009, up from the current $723.1 billion in 2004 …

- University of Georgia Selig Center for Economic Growth, Advertising Age, March 7, 2005.

African-American Median Household African-American Median Household Income in Maryland, 2000Income in Maryland, 2000

Jurisdiction Household Income

Anne Arundel County $47,250

Baltimore City $26,202

Baltimore County $44,805

Charles County $52,895

Howard County $57,476

Montgomery County $51,166

Prince George’s County $53,938

Maryland $41,652

Median Household Income Comparisons, 2000Median Household Income Comparisons, 2000

Jurisdiction Household Income

MD African-American $41,652

U.S. African-American $29,423

U.S. All races $41,994

Fulton County, GA – AA $29,057

DeKalb County, GA - AA $43,485

Cobb County, GA - AA $45,075

Prince George’s County -AA $53,938

District of Columbia – AA $30,478

African-American Aggregate African-American Aggregate Income in Maryland, 2000Income in Maryland, 2000

Jurisdiction Aggregate Income

Anne Arundel County $1,268,034,800

Baltimore City $5,479,160,700

Baltimore County $2,995,665,300

Charles County $637,189,500

Howard County $918,848,000

Montgomery County $3,124,414,400

Prince George’s County $11,379,296,500

Maryland $28,020,776,900

African-American Aggregate African-American Aggregate Housing Value in Maryland, 2000Housing Value in Maryland, 2000

Jurisdiction Owner Housing Value

Anne Arundel County $1,722,082,500

Baltimore City $4,155,887,500

Baltimore County $3,144,645,000

Charles County $1,063,272,500

Howard County $1,333,925,000

Montgomery County $3,651,400,000

Prince George’s County $15,235,350,000

Maryland $32,631,600,000

African-American Aggregate Real African-American Aggregate Real Estate Tax in Maryland, 2000Estate Tax in Maryland, 2000

Jurisdiction Real Estate Tax

Anne Arundel County $17,515,700

Baltimore City $72,937,800

Baltimore County $40,833,000

Charles County $10,542,400

Howard County $16,240,900

Montgomery County $43,126,900

Prince George’s County $229,024,400

Maryland $450,804,900

174,550

414,879

312,182

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

Under 20 20-64 65+

Age Group

Projected Minority Population Growth in Maryland 2000 - 2030

Source: MDP Forecasts, 2004.

Trends and ThreatsTrends and Threats

Maryland is two Marylands – One white and asian, the other black and hispanic

Maryland is three Marylands – one rural (western or eastern), one urban and another suburban

Trends and ThreatsTrends and Threats

Black Maryland is becoming three Marylands – one urban (Baltimore City and the inner suburbs of Baltimore County and Prince George’s County, one suburban, and then there is the matter of the Eastern Shore

Trends and ThreatsTrends and Threats

Black Maryland is increasingly economically bifurcated containing simultaneously large concentrations of black poor and a substantially large community of the solidly middle-income black people that rivals any other area of the U.S.

What Caused these trends?What Caused these trends?

Income inequality and economic/racial residential segregation

Changing household structure (rise in 1-person HH and disparate female-headed HH

Changing HH structure reduced number of workers

What Caused these trends?What Caused these trends?

Continuing economic legacy of “Jim Crow” and de jure and de facto segregation (in employment and housing)

Lack of investment income among substantial numbers of blacks

Decline in manufacturing employment, stagnation in government employment and increase in service and retail jobs

Our TasksOur Tasks

Economically empower the “least of us” – address education, housing, health, and family support

Maintain one of the largest concentrations of the black middle class in America – address education, health, and investment/wealth building

Our TasksOur Tasks

Legacy – bequeath the current middle class lifestyle to our progeny – education and investment

Develop multiple strategies/policies to address urban, suburban and rural poverty and affluence issues.

“One size fits all” programs will no longer be effective to address all of community