of 31
8/12/2019 BAMFORD WED 845AM TUS 3AND4.pdf
1/31
Holly A. Bamford, PhD
Assistant Administrator
NOAAs National Ocean Service
Cat Modeling 2014: Adapting for Today Preparing for Tomorrow
February 12, 2014
8/12/2019 BAMFORD WED 845AM TUS 3AND4.pdf
2/31
Outline
Major EnvironmentalRisk Factors
Managing Risk
Building ResilientCommunities &
Economies
Discussion
2
8/12/2019 BAMFORD WED 845AM TUS 3AND4.pdf
3/31
Coastal Vulnerability Around the World
3
8/12/2019 BAMFORD WED 845AM TUS 3AND4.pdf
4/31
America Was Born on the Coast
4
8/12/2019 BAMFORD WED 845AM TUS 3AND4.pdf
5/31
Americans Need Resilient Coasts
5
8/12/2019 BAMFORD WED 845AM TUS 3AND4.pdf
6/31
Coastal Communities:Steadily Growing
6
52%
of the people on
20%
of the land
39%
of the people on
10%
of the land
National Coastal Population Rpt, 2013
8/12/2019 BAMFORD WED 845AM TUS 3AND4.pdf
7/31
A Coastal Nation
7
8/12/2019 BAMFORD WED 845AM TUS 3AND4.pdf
8/31
Coastal Economies:Vital to U.S. and International Markets
98% of products in U.S reach usthrough ports.
45% of U.S. GDP is generated incoastal shoreline counties.
$6.6 trillion 51 million jobs & $2.8 trillion in wages
Coastal tourism and recreation issignificant portion of U.S. economy.
Beach recreation alone ~$30 billionannually.
8
8/12/2019 BAMFORD WED 845AM TUS 3AND4.pdf
9/31
What Does the Future Hold?
9
8/12/2019 BAMFORD WED 845AM TUS 3AND4.pdf
10/31
Billion Dollar Disasters: Fact of Life
10
Source: NOAA
8/12/2019 BAMFORD WED 845AM TUS 3AND4.pdf
11/31
Weather-related versus Geophysical Events
Source: Munich RE
11
8/12/2019 BAMFORD WED 845AM TUS 3AND4.pdf
12/31
Sea Level Trend: Atlantic City, NJ
Mean Sea Level Trend
12
8/12/2019 BAMFORD WED 845AM TUS 3AND4.pdf
13/31
Determining Risk
Probability (Frequency)
Consequ
ence
(L
ife,
Economic,
Politic
al,Habitat,Social)
Chart courtesy of Western Kentucky University
13
8/12/2019 BAMFORD WED 845AM TUS 3AND4.pdf
14/31
Public Risk Perception
14
8/12/2019 BAMFORD WED 845AM TUS 3AND4.pdf
15/31
Attitudes and Incentives
Source: Global Warmings Six Americas, 2009.
Energy Rebates
Increased Fuel Efficiency
15
8/12/2019 BAMFORD WED 845AM TUS 3AND4.pdf
16/31
Managing Risk: Who Pays?
16
8/12/2019 BAMFORD WED 845AM TUS 3AND4.pdf
17/31
Sandy: A Turning Point?
17
8/12/2019 BAMFORD WED 845AM TUS 3AND4.pdf
18/31
8/12/2019 BAMFORD WED 845AM TUS 3AND4.pdf
19/31
Coastal Intelligence
19
8/12/2019 BAMFORD WED 845AM TUS 3AND4.pdf
20/31
Decision Support Tools: Sea Level Viewer
20
8/12/2019 BAMFORD WED 845AM TUS 3AND4.pdf
21/31
Decision Support Tools: Sea Level Viewer
21
8/12/2019 BAMFORD WED 845AM TUS 3AND4.pdf
22/31
Decision Support Tools: Sea Level Viewer
22
8/12/2019 BAMFORD WED 845AM TUS 3AND4.pdf
23/31
Decision Support Tools: County Snapshots
www.csc.noaa.gov/snapshots
Coastal County Snapshot
Uses
Demographics information
Exposure and resilience toflooding (population in/out offloodplain)
Coastal dependent economy
Comparison across counties
Downloads can serve ashandout/ educational tool
23
8/12/2019 BAMFORD WED 845AM TUS 3AND4.pdf
24/31
Decision Support Tools: Coastal Change
http://www.csc.noaa.gov/ccapatlas/
24
Not Waiting for a Disaster
8/12/2019 BAMFORD WED 845AM TUS 3AND4.pdf
25/31
Not Waiting for a Disasterto Achieve Better Resilience Today
Digital Coast ResilienceData and Tools
Coastal County Snapshots
C-CAP Land Cover Atlas
Coastal Lidar
SLR and Coastal FloodingImpacts Viewer
ENOWhttp://csc.noaa.gov/digitalcoast/
25
8/12/2019 BAMFORD WED 845AM TUS 3AND4.pdf
26/31
We Live in a Built Environment
Multiple Lines of Defense
26
Green/Gray Rebuilding Concepts
8/12/2019 BAMFORD WED 845AM TUS 3AND4.pdf
27/31
Green/Gray Rebuilding ConceptsExample: Visualizing Living Shorelines (CanVis)
http://www.csc.noaa.gov/digitalcoast/tools/canvis
Green/Gray Infrastructure:
8/12/2019 BAMFORD WED 845AM TUS 3AND4.pdf
28/31
Green/Gray Infrastructure:Working with Nature
28
Shared Flood Risk Management:
8/12/2019 BAMFORD WED 845AM TUS 3AND4.pdf
29/31
Shared Flood Risk Management:Buying Down Risk
29
8/12/2019 BAMFORD WED 845AM TUS 3AND4.pdf
30/31
Adaptation Costs of Climate Change Risks
30
8/12/2019 BAMFORD WED 845AM TUS 3AND4.pdf
31/31
Change is Here: Time to Act is Now
31
