Managing risk in a Managing risk in a highly variable highly variable climate- Upper North climate- Upper North SA experiencesSA experiences

Barry MudgeBarry Mudge

FarmerFarmer

ConsultantConsultant

Port Germein Port Germein

Port Germein

Clay Loam

Sandy Loam

Limestone Rise

Annual Rainfall-Port Germein

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

Year

Rain

fall

(m

m)

Growing Season Rainfall

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Year

Gro

win

g S

easo

n R

ain

fall

(m

m)

Historic Crop Yields

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11

Year

To

nn

es

/ha

Sandalwood

The Oaks

Operating Profit and Growing Season Rainfall

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10

Year

Ope

ratin

g P

rofit

($'0

00)

Operating Profit

Strategic Responses- Improving resilience

■ Diversification or specialisation

■ Appropriate Scale

■ Maintain high equities

■ Attention to detail- adopting progressive technologies

■ Lease rather than buy if possible- invest surplus funds elsewhere

■ Have lease costs reflect profit rather than land value

Recent Strategic Response Changes

■ Direct Drilling

■ Zero tolerance Summer Weed Control

Early Seeding- Why is this so important?

Average timing of first 30 degree spring day

2000’s

1990’s

1980’s

1970’s

1960’s

Decade

Oct 5

Oct 12

Oct 9

Oct 26

Oct 19

Orroroo

Sept 14

Sept 20

Sept 21

Oct 5

Sept 29

Port Germein

Tactical Responses- Adaptive or responsive farming

■ Largely around agronomy- weeds, pests, diseases, nutrition

■ Develop simple predictive tools to give seasonal outlook indications at seeding

■ Being prepared to act on strong indications

■ 2007 demonstrated the potential benefits of tactical response

Yield Probabilities-2006/2007

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

Yield (t/ha)

Pro

ba

bility (

%)

2006 Potential

2007 Potential

Low Modelled Plant Available Water at seeding (PAW <38 mm)-Port Germein

Early Seeding Opportunity

Middle Seeding Opportunity

Late Seeding Opportunity

High Modelled Plant Available Water at seeding (PAW >78 mm)-Port Germein

Early Seeding Opportunity

Middle Seeding Opportunity

Late Seeding Opportunity

Modelled effects of PAW at seeding against simulated yields at Quorn- 1900 to 2009

Current areas of research

■ Fallow management- strategic and tactical

■ Impact of climate change on varietal selection, TOS

■ Value of changing input levels- seasonal and spatial, crops to land classes

■ Optimising crop/ livestock balance

■ Managing late breaks- opportunistic sowing?

■ Flexible grain/ grazing

■ Income from carbon?

Summing Up

■ Last decade has been very testing for farming systems in the Upper North

■ Climate change or climate variability?

■ Confident about temperature increases- less confidence in rainfall predictions

■ Need to continue to refine strategies which provide resilience

■ Focus on developing the trigger points for more responsive and flexible programs