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8/13/2019 Bb 1403 Communication Through Technology 1 Future Trends
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Communication through
technology 1:
future trends
IMG SRC: Flickr
####Some recentpredictions...
IMG SRC: Flickr
####
"I think there is a world
market for maybe five
computers."Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943
8/13/2019 Bb 1403 Communication Through Technology 1 Future Trends
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"Computers in the future
may weigh no more than
1.5 tons.“
Popular Mechanics, forecasting the relentless march of
science, 1949
####
“There is no reason
anyone would want a
computer in their home.”
Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of Digital
Equipment Corp., 1977
####
"640K ought to be
enough for anybody."
Bill Gates, 1981 apocryphal
8/13/2019 Bb 1403 Communication Through Technology 1 Future Trends
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technology pervades societytechnology pervades societytechnology pervades societytechnology pervades society
• Friends who are facebook addicts
• My 70 year old parents got online
when they retired• People check email (and football
results) when they get up at night to
go to the bathroom
• When a plane lands in Brunei, what
is the first thing everyone does?
####
technology pervades our worldtechnology pervades our worldtechnology pervades our worldtechnology pervades our world
jeremy’s
cruiser
####
technology pervades our worldtechnology pervades our worldtechnology pervades our worldtechnology pervades our world
• GPS navigation
• Snooper - speed camera locater
• ICE – CD/DVD/iPod• Hands-free phone kit
• Tracking sensor - anti-theft
• Microprocessor - in keys – anti-theft
• Microprocessor - Engine management system
• ABS
• Rearview camera
• Parking sensors
8/13/2019 Bb 1403 Communication Through Technology 1 Future Trends
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technologytechnologytechnologytechnology – –– – the basic ideathe basic ideathe basic ideathe basic idea
• Technological advances allow the
production of more output from existing
resources• more efficient ways of producing existing
output
• production of new (or substantially improved)items
• We gain both from more output/cheaper
prices and from improved items and
innovations
####
““““killer killer killer killer”””” technology applicationstechnology applicationstechnology applicationstechnology applications
• Online shopping and retailing
• Information access
• Mobile phones
• Many more, e.g. medical and
industrial applications
####
less thanless thanless thanless than ““““killer killer killer killer”””” technologytechnologytechnologytechnology
applicationsapplicationsapplicationsapplications
• Non disruptive applications of technology
• Small incremental improvements to our
lives
• DVD players, ball point pens, antilock
brakes, central heat, air conditioning, etc.
Their net sum is extremely significant
8/13/2019 Bb 1403 Communication Through Technology 1 Future Trends
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this leads to problem #1this leads to problem #1this leads to problem #1this leads to problem #1
“Technology for Technology’s Sake”
- unnecessary complexity
Examples:• Complexity in MS Word
• The need to reboot anything
• Microprocessors in car keys
####
unnecessary unreliabilityunnecessary unreliabilityunnecessary unreliabilityunnecessary unreliability
• Unnecessary complexity leads tounnecessary unreliability
• Complexity increases attack surface
• Simply more that can go wrong!
• Often no backup plans
####
my backup plan for this classmy backup plan for this classmy backup plan for this classmy backup plan for this class
Do most people/organizations have workable backupDo most people/organizations have workable backupDo most people/organizations have workable backupDo most people/organizations have workable backup
plans for when technology fails?plans for when technology fails?plans for when technology fails?plans for when technology fails?
8/13/2019 Bb 1403 Communication Through Technology 1 Future Trends
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my not particularly smart homemy not particularly smart homemy not particularly smart homemy not particularly smart home
Sometimes has a mind of itSometimes has a mind of itSometimes has a mind of itSometimes has a mind of it’’’’s owns owns owns own…………
Calls the policeCalls the policeCalls the policeCalls the police
Calls the fire brigadeCalls the fire brigadeCalls the fire brigadeCalls the fire brigade
What could aWhat could aWhat could aWhat could a ““““Smart HouseSmart HouseSmart HouseSmart House”””” potentially do?potentially do?potentially do?potentially do?
####
simple is good!simple is good!simple is good!simple is good!
“Make everything as simpleas possible”
----Albert EinsteinAlbert EinsteinAlbert EinsteinAlbert Einstein
####
the full quotethe full quotethe full quotethe full quote
“Make everything as simple aspossible, but not simpler”
----Albert EinsteinAlbert EinsteinAlbert EinsteinAlbert Einstein
8/13/2019 Bb 1403 Communication Through Technology 1 Future Trends
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reliability?reliability?reliability?reliability?
• Technology has been evolving sorapidly, the emphasis has been onononon
functionality, not reliabilityfunctionality, not reliabilityfunctionality, not reliabilityfunctionality, not reliability
• This will (need) to change!
• If Microsoft had focused more onreliability, would Windows own thedesktop?
####
problem #2 too much informationproblem #2 too much informationproblem #2 too much informationproblem #2 too much information
• The “Information Overload” Age
• Endless interruptions: emails, texts,IMs, buzz’s, tweets
• Are you now more productive or lessproductive than you were 5 years
ago?
####
privacyprivacyprivacyprivacy
• Distant past – villages – little privacy.Reasonable in context
• Recent past – cities/industrial age.Reasonable privacy
• Today – who has your data? Is ityours? Is it correct?
• Should we fear Big Brother – e.g.Google, Microsoft, Verizon, MarketingAgencies, everyone who storespersonal data
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where we are going?where we are going?where we are going?where we are going?
• Integration of technology into our
world
• Reliability – will be assumed – in thefuture
• Ease of use – enormous work on the
Human-Computer interface
• Technology only where it makessense
####webwebwebweb trendstrendstrendstrends
####
internet connectivityinternet connectivityinternet connectivityinternet connectivity
Inexpensive, lightening fast &
“always on” internet using Gigabit
wireless connection
Computers light, dumb terminals:
need net connection to work (Google
netbook and Chrome OS)
Most applications web-based for best
efficiency, even television – cloud
computing
IMG SRC: Flickr
8/13/2019 Bb 1403 Communication Through Technology 1 Future Trends
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all digital devices will be networkedall digital devices will be networkedall digital devices will be networkedall digital devices will be networked
From your car, radio, phone, fridge...
“always on”
An unconnected digital device will be
a strange thing
I want... Gigabit wireless glasses
with voice prompted HUD.
What future tech’ would you
like?
####
rise of the mobile internetrise of the mobile internetrise of the mobile internetrise of the mobile internet
Rapid improvements in connectivity & user
interface (screen) design
Mobile to be dominant platform for connecting to
net worldwide
Japan: happened already - most surf web through
phone
Voice, SMS, IM use internet wireless connection
(Wi-Fi) will it replace 3G networks?
Phones include electronic wallets & banks = main
method of payment –will you use?
How do you access the internet?
####
rise of individual & entrepreneur rise of individual & entrepreneur rise of individual & entrepreneur rise of individual & entrepreneur
Open source = unprecedented access to
code & applications
Cheap to create business online & makeown media
Teenager in basement same opportunity
as worker in big company
EXAMPLE: Android mobile OS
Think of potential online business
opportunities!
8/13/2019 Bb 1403 Communication Through Technology 1 Future Trends
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strides against digital dividestrides against digital dividestrides against digital dividestrides against digital divide
Developing world joins digital ecosystem
via mobile phones
Also become part of economy viacellphone wallet
Mobile phones cheap & broadband
ubiquitous (almost!!)
Illiteracy issues overcome by video &
audio streams
Creates new areas of collaboration and
education
####
almost no privacy on the webalmost no privacy on the webalmost no privacy on the webalmost no privacy on the web
Your data will be out there
It will be ok because everyone will be
in the same boat
Seeing already with social
networking services like FaceBook
####
the rise of the virtual universethe rise of the virtual universethe rise of the virtual universethe rise of the virtual universe
Virtual worlds like Second Life (SL) go
mainstream
Come to fore as graphics & broadband
improve
Potentially a visual alternative to the www
Standards: different worlds connect to
each other seamlessly
Virtual coup d’etat by SL citizens?
Linden Labs cedes SL to democratically
elected virtual govt
8/13/2019 Bb 1403 Communication Through Technology 1 Future Trends
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information pollution & overloadinformation pollution & overloadinformation pollution & overloadinformation pollution & overload
Next big challenge is how to manage masses ofinformation
People will complain about "digital fatigue“ & digital
noise Focus on developing filters & aggregators ie
Nimbuzz
“Switch-off" holidays regularly prescribed by yourdoctor
Rise of anti-digital movements urging “get back tobasics” Re-born Luddites!
In response to clutter, a second world wide webannounced
####
more googles & facebooksmore googles & facebooksmore googles & facebooksmore googles & facebooks
Google & Facebook finally get good
competition
Microsoft releases OS code and goes open
source
MS makes revenue by selling advertising &
giving support
Advertising is main business model,
connecting sellers & buyers – Google model
Facebook becomes a virtual OS/desktop,
with MS influence
####...and media?
8/13/2019 Bb 1403 Communication Through Technology 1 Future Trends
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media distribution & productionmedia distribution & productionmedia distribution & productionmedia distribution & production
All media eventually delivered via
internet
Minimal specialist print, tv, radiomedia companies left
Fully converged, broadcasting &
publishing via the net
Media on many digital platforms
MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA
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fragmented media environmentfragmented media environmentfragmented media environmentfragmented media environment
Media world filled with new competitors
Mobile phone operators, handset makers
become media companies
Mobile network operators stop
aggregating, start producing own content
Operators already big media companies
Battle between media & cellphone
companies looming
MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA
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role of media changesrole of media changesrole of media changesrole of media changes
Content aggregators, facilitators
Business model: capture audience via all
means
Media companies look to own channels:
deals for own phones?
Content portals utilise web applications &
services (google docs)
Social networks as well as content hubs
MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA
8/13/2019 Bb 1403 Communication Through Technology 1 Future Trends
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is this the end of print?is this the end of print?is this the end of print?is this the end of print?
Books, newspapers magazines...
Read on flexible digital boards, always
connected
Websites & digital newspapers become “same
thing”
Newspapers smaller & niched, but not extinct
Newspapers become expensive, luxury items
A lifestyle item: buying an “experience”, part of
“off-time”
MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA
####
IMG SRC: WANN
####...other developments
8/13/2019 Bb 1403 Communication Through Technology 1 Future Trends
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other future trendsother future trendsother future trendsother future trends
Semantic web entrenched
predicted evolution of current HTML-based WWW
Information stored in machine-readable formats for easyretrieval by software applications, computer agents, and
virtual assistants. Artificial intelligence
Attention economy in full swing
marketplace where consumers agree to receive services inexchange for their attention
personalized news, searches, alerts and recommendations tobuy.
Not about buying and selling - though ultimately those mayoccur.
Sophisticated personalisation of content
Location-based/mapping services common & mobile
Web 14.0???...
SRC: Read Write/Web, Jaxon Rice, My blog
####What is nextWhat is nextWhat is nextWhat is next ………… Web 2.0Web 2.0Web 2.0Web 2.0
####“... far from having “crashed”, the web is more
important than ever, with exciting newapplications and sites popping up with
surprising regularity … Could it be that the
dot.com collapse marked some kind of turning
point for the web, such that a call to
action such as “Web 2.0” might make sense?”
Tim O’Reilly on the birth of Web 2.0
IMG SRC: Flickr