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BEACONOMICS AN ECONOMIC FORECAST FOR THE U.S. AND CALIFORNIA
BEACONOMICSAN ECONOMIC FORECAST FOR THE U.S. AND CALIFORNIA
BeaconomicsBeaconomics is produced quarterly by Beacon Economics LLC, one of California’s leading economic
research and consulting firms specializing in economic and revenue forecasting; sustainable growth and
development; housing, land use, and real estate markets; economic, fiscal, and social impact analysis; public
policy analysis; regional economics; and EB-5 Visa analysis.
VVolume 13 Number 3 Fall 2019
This Publication was prepared by:
Christopher Thornberg, Founding Partner 5777 Century Boulevard, Suite 895Los Angeles, California [email protected]
Robert Kleinhenz, Director of Economic Research 5777 Century Boulevard, Suite 895Los Angeles, California [email protected]
For further information about this publication, or about Beacon Economics, please contact:
Victoria Pike Bond, Director of Communications [email protected]
Rick Smith, Director of Business [email protected]
Or visit our website at www.BeaconEcon.com
Reproduction of this document or any portion therein is prohibited without the expressed written permission of Beacon Economics,LLC. Copyright ©2019 by Beacon Economics, LLC.
BEACONOMICS, FALL 2019
3
Since the start of this year, the news has been flooded with almost continuous calls that a recession is on
the way. The rhetoric has shifted from suggesting that the United States ‘might’ have a recession in the near
future to a tone of almost complete certainty about an oncoming downturn and what it will mean for the
election, for millennials, for whatever. The reasons for these predictions vary—from the length of the current
expansion, to the trade war with China, to the ironic suggestion that the sheer bulk of conversation about a
coming recession will, by itself, create the next recession.
Beacon Economics continues to ignore these constant cries of wolf (or perhaps ‘bear’ would be more
appropriate). Our views have not changed since the last edition of this outlook and, if anything, we are more
bullish on the economy today than we were at the start of the year. To us, the numbers don’t suggest that
the United States has successfully weathered a series of economic storms, but rather beg the question as to
whether there has been a storm to navigate. The economy continues to expand at a safe and steady pace,
with few of the stressors or imbalances that could cause a major disruption. The longest expansion in U.S.
economic history will continue for the foreseeable future.
When the second quarter U.S. GDP release came out, there was a modest revision of the last two years of
output data. The new history is almost boring in its consistency. GDP growth in 2019 has averaged 2.55%,
compared to 2.5% average growth in 2018 and 2.8% in 2017. It is difficult to see turbulence here despite all
the rhetoric to the contrary.
United States OutlookBy Christopher Thornberg, PhD
The Recession That Wasn’t
BEACONOMICS, FALL 2019
4
Consumer spending has been steady, adding slightly less that 2% to growth for the last 5 years. While business
investment slowed somewhat in 2019, on the upside, there has been more than enough of a surge in public
spending to offset slower spending from business. Residential investment is still a drag on the economy,
although less of one than next year. And while exports have fallen a bit, the effect on the economy has been
very small and has been offset by modestly declining imports. In other words—yawn. Not much to talk about
here.
Moreover, it isn’t just the output data that looks positive. While U.S. job growth has slowed modestly this year
to about 160,000 jobs per month, with the nation’s low unemployment rate and slow growth in the labor
force, this is not surprising. The job openings rate in the United States is still significantly higher than the
unemployment rate. Additionally, tight labor markets over the last two years have caused wages to rise at a
faster pace.
All this seems to stand in stark contrast to the most talked-about stress point in the economy today—the
trade war with China. The rhetoric surrounding the economic impact of the current tariffs has reached an
almost hysterical level. The stock market leaps or collapses on the basis of a tweet from the President on the
subject. Yet we are hard pressed to find a shred of data that suggests these shifting trade flows have had any
broad, overall impact on the U.S. economy—and even struggle to find evidence for a narrow, limited impact.
GDPFinal DemandConsumption Goods ServicesInvestment Structures Equipment IPP ResidentialNet Exports Exports ImportsGovernment Federal State and local
2.803.022.001.060.940.860.050.490.170.16-0.160.66-0.820.150.110.04
2.502.651.790.621.170.610.080.300.40-0.18-0.430.05-0.490.270.170.09
2.552.741.941.050.890.18-0.090.020.33-0.080.01-0.110.110.640.330.31
2017 2018 2019 H1
CONTRIBUTIONS TO U.S. GDP GROWTHQuarterly Averages
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Analysis by Beacon Economics
Table 1
BEACONOMICS, FALL 2019
5
There is little doubt that the tariffs being slapped onto products coming from China have affected trade flows
with that nation. In nominal terms, imports from China through the first half of 2019 were down 13% from
the same period in 2018. Exports responded even more dramatically—down 19% from the previous year.
But trade is fungible. Overall, the nominal value of imports and exports is largely the same as last year at this
time. Real trade flows, including services, are also largely unchanged from 2018. One might understandably
wonder ‘what trade war’?
Additionally, inflation has not heated up as a result of tariffs on imports—it has actually slowed to a modest
1.5%. Even for products that are imported directly, we see little difference in price growth as a result of
the tariffs. Inflation rates over the last year were 1% for apparel, 2.4% for furniture, 2.2% for tires, and AV
equipment was actually down by a whopping 9.8%. Dishes and flatware did rise by 8%, but it seems unlikely
that the higher cost of new tableware will push the U.S. consumer to the breaking point. Much of this is being
driven by the fact that the Chinese have allowed their currency to depreciate sharply, to over 7 yuan per
dollar, meaning they have picked up most of the cost of the tariffs. In short, the only true macroeconomic
effect of the trade war has been in the news/media business.
TotalCanadaMexicoChinaJapanUKGermanyKoreaNetherlandBrazilFrance
$823.6$148.1$129.3$52.0$36.8$34.1$30.4$28.3$26.1$20.8$19.4
$1,235.8$219.0$179.6$158.1$72.9$62.3$39.2$31.0$30.4$29.9$29.7
-1.0%-3.1%-1.7%
-18.9%2.6%0.2%3.2%4.4%
10.2%9.3%5.5%
0.3%-12.4%6.3%-1.1%3.9%-0.1%10.7%5.7%
33.4%6.2%
15.5%
TotalChina
MexicoCanadaJapan
GermanyKorea
UKVietnamIrelandFrance
Exports June 2019 YTD YOY % Growth Imports June 2019 YTD YOY % Growth
U.S. TRADE - EXPORT AND IMPORT GROWTH (IN $BILLIONS)
Source: WISERTrade, Analysis by Beacon Economics
Table 2
BEACONOMICS, FALL 2019
6
While it’s true that manufacturing output has flattened, it isn’t much of a stressor on the economy. In 2016,
industrial production went negative in the midst of the global commodity bust. Yet this was barely seen in
overall growth at the national level. A huge share of the U.S. economy today is in services, making it far more
immune to manufacturing cycles.
As for why manufacturing is flat, a portion is indeed being driven by flattening exports, but another, perhaps
even more significant portion, stems from weak business investment. The slowdown in business investment
is not too surprising given the strong numbers over the last two years, much of which was driven by the
accelerated depreciation giveaway in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017.
Furniture and beddingAppliancesDishes and flatwareTools, hardwareApparelTiresVideo and audio productsSporting goods
2.400.108.002.301.002.20-9.800.00
CPI INFLATION RATEAugust 2018 to August 2019
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Analysis by Beacon Economics
Table 3
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Analysis by Beacon Economics, LLC
0%
5%
15%
10%
-10%
-5%
-20%
-15%
Jan-
08
Mar
-12
Feb-
10
Apr-
14
Aug-
17
Jun-
08
Aug-
12
Jul-1
0
Sep-
14
Jan-
18
Nov
-08
Jan-
13
May
-16
Dec
-10
Feb-
15
Jun-
18
Apr-
09
Jun-
13
Oct
-16
May
-11
Jul-1
5
Nov
-18
Sep-
09
Nov
-13
Mar
-17
Oct
-11
Dec
-15
Apr-
19
Graph 1
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: MANUFACTURING(Year-Over-Year)
Category Inflation Rate
BEACONOMICS, FALL 2019
7
And countering this modest negative is plenty of good news. On the upside, falling interest rates are already
starting to create new momentum in residential real estate. Home sales are picking up and new home
sales are back to a 12-year high (albeit still much lower than in 2006). Home price growth is also stabilizing.
Additionally, expect a wave of refinancing on homes (interest rates are back to 3.5%!) as consumers move to
save even more on their interest payments. Beacon Economics expects real estate to become a positive force
for growth in the second half of the year and even more so in 2020.
U.S. HOME PRICE GROWTH (YEAR-OVER-YEAR)
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index, Analysis by Beacon Economics, LLC
Source: National Association of Realtors, Analysis by Beacon Economics, LLC
5%
4,000
10%
5,000
20%
7,000
15%
6,000
-5%
2,000
0%
3,000
-20%
-25%
0
-10%
1,000
-15%
Jan-
04Ja
n-04
Nov
-09
Nov
-09
Dec
-06
Dec
-06
Oct
-12
OCt
-12
Nov
-16
Nov
-16
Aug-
04Au
g-04
Jun-
10Ju
n-10
Jul-0
7Ju
l-07
May
-13
May
-13
Jun-
17Ju
n-17
Mar
-05
Mar
-05
Jan-
11Ja
n-11
Feb-
15Fe
b-15
Feb-
08Fe
b-08
Dec
-13
Dec
-13
Jan-
18Ja
n-18
Oct
-05
Oct
-05
Aug-
11Au
g-11
Sep-
15Se
p-15
Sep-
08Se
p-08
Dec
-13
Dec
-13
Aug-
18Au
g-18
May
-06
May
-06
Mar
-12
Mar
-12
Apr-
16Ap
r-16
Apr-
09Ap
r-09
Jul-1
4Ju
l-14
Mar
-19
Mar
-19
Graph 2
Graph 3
U.S. SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES SOLD (IN THOUSANDS)SAAR
BEACONOMICS, FALL 2019
8
Speaking of consumers, there were a number of pleasant surprises in the revised GDP data, including
another upward revision in consumer savings rates. The rate is currently at 8%, the highest since the early
1990s (outside of an odd surge prior to taxes going up in 2012). Americans are actually tucking money away.
Combined with low interest rates and a slow pace of household debt growth, the financial obligations ratio
continues along at a record low level. The U.S. consumer sector hasn’t been this healthy in two decades, and
a healthy consumer sector can push the nation through any major issues in the global economy.
One of the big questions is how we square our benign view of the economy with the inverted yield curve,
which historically is one of the best predictors of an oncoming recession. The answer is to understand that
correlation is not causation—short run interest rates being higher than long run interest rates has never,
by itself, created a recession. Rather, the strong correlation in this data is driven traditionally by the Federal
Reserve raising short run interest rates to try and cool an overheating economy. In other words, the inverted
yield curve is like the skid marks at the top of a cliff. It is a sign of trying to avoid an accident.
The good news is that the United States is not currently facing a cliff. The U.S. economy is stable and the
expansion will continue. Beacon Economics’ expects GDP growth to continue at a steady 2.5% pace for the
foreseeable future. Unemployment will remain low and wages will continue to rise. Also, expect housing
prices to accelerate. As for when exactly the next recession might arrive—we simply don’t know.
PERSONAL SAVINGS AS A PERCENTAGE OF DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Analysis by Beacon Economics, LLC
6%
8%
12%
10%
4%
0%
2%
Jan-
04
Nov
-09
Dec
-06
OCt
-12
Nov
-16
Aug-
04
Jun-
10
Jul-0
7
May
-13
Jun-
17
Mar
-05
Jan-
11
Feb-
15
Feb-
08
Dec
-13
Jan-
18
Oct
-05
Aug-
11
Sep-
15
Sep-
08
Dec
-13
Aug-
18
May
-06
Mar
-12
Apr-
16
Apr-
09
Jul-1
4
Mar
-19
Graph 4
BEACONOMICS, FALL 2019
9
While still savoring the fact that the U.S. economy is the midst of a record-breaking expansion, attention has
suddenly shifted to questions about when the next recession will begin. Admittedly, there are a number of
mounting concerns: U.S. trade conflicts, weaker global economic conditions, Brexit, and the inverted yield
curve. Still, despite the uncertainty that has fueled these concerns, and despite chronic homegrown problems
with respect to the labor force and housing, California’s economy has performed solidly through the first half
of the year, and will stay on track into 2020.
Looking beyond the rhetoric and headline-catching hyperbole, data clearly show a California economy that is
humming along. The state’s unemployment rate, having hit a record low of 4.1% in July 2018, has been skating
along at that rate, or slightly above, in the months since. Jobs grew statewide at a year-over-year rate of 1.8%
in July 2019, comfortably above the long run growth rate (since 1991) of 1.2% and a just a hair behind last
year’s 1.9% rate of expansion. And with a tight labor market and steady job growth, wages continue to climb.
California added 311,800 jobs year-over-year as of July, and has accounted for 16% of job gains nationally
through the first seven months of 2019, essentially unchanged from the previous five years. Health Care,
Professional Scientific and Technical Services, Leisure and Hospitality, and Construction led the way in
absolute terms, accounting for roughly two-thirds of the state’s total job gains.
California OutlookBy Robert Kleinhenz, PhD
Just the Facts, Ma’am
BEACONOMICS, FALL 2019
10
JOB GAINS ACROSS NEARLY ALL INDUSTRIES
Each of these industries is driven by its own dynamic. Health Care has been on a sustained growth path for
several years, while the advances in Professional Scientific and Technical Services show the strength of the
state’s tech sector. Meanwhile, gains in Leisure and Hospitality employment are a reflection of spending from
household and business discretionary income.
Construction, Professional Scientific and Technical Services, and Health Care were also leaders in percentage
terms, followed by Information. On the other hand, five of the state’s 17 major industries contracted, losing a
total of 13,600 jobs from July 2018 to July 2019 (less than 0.1% of the state’s total payroll employment).
Evidence of growth can also be seen early in the year, in real gross state product, which was up 2.7% year-
to-year in the first quarter, and in nominal personal income, which advanced by 3.1% over the same period,
slightly off the national pace in both cases. When viewed alongside the 8.1% increase in statewide taxable
sales over this same period, it appears that both household and business spending have the wherewithal to
fuel continued spending.
Total Nonfarm Health Care & Social Assistance Professional, Scientific & Technical Services Leisure & Hospitality Construction Government Administrative & Support & Waste Services Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities Information Manufacturing Educational Services Real Estate & Rental & Leasing Other Services Management of Companies & Enterprises Mining Finance & Insurance Wholesale Trade Retail Trade
17,488,6002,433,6001,327,4002,025,700900,7002,612,4001,159,600681,800555,3001,337,900382,700296,700576,500255,70022,700542,600698,3001,679,000
311,80074,40046,50040,90037,10035,10030,40016,20015,10012,8008,4003,7002,0001,700-200-600-700-11,000
1.8%3.2%3.6%2.1%4.3%1.4%2.7%2.4%2.8%1.0%2.2%1.3%0.3%0.7%-0.9%-0.1%-0.1%-0.7%
July-19Industry YTY YTY %
Source: California Employment Development Department, Analysis by Beacon Economics
Table 1
BEACONOMICS, FALL 2019
11
CALIFORNIA REGIONAL GROWTH CONTINUES
Source: California Employment Development Department, Analysis by Beacon Economics
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale Metro Div
San Francisco-Redwood City-South San Francisco Metro Div
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario MSA
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara MSA
San Diego-Carlsbad MSA
Anaheim-Santa Ana-Irvine Metro Div
Oakland-Hayward-Berkeley Metro Div
Sacramento--Roseville--Arden-Arcade MSA
Fresno MSA
Bakersfield MSA
Santa Maria-Santa Barbara MSA
Salinas MSA
San Rafael MD
Visalia-Porterville MSA
Santa Rosa MSA
Modesto MSA
San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles-Arroyo Grande MSA
Santa Cruz-Watsonville MSA
Merced MSA
Napa MSA
Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura MSA
Chico MSA
Hanford-Corcoran MSA
Yuba City MSA
Redding MSA
Madera MSA
El Centro MSA
Vallejo-Fairfield MSA
Stockton-Lodi MSA
4,568,600
1,186,500
1,545,400
1,161,100
1,514,000
1,677,600
1,200,700
1,020,900
363,700
273,200
189,700
148,100
119,900
128,400
212,000
180,000
120,100
104,600
70,100
75,700
310,800
84,500
41,300
45,400
68,000
38,700
52,000
141,900
240,800
59,400
41,100
35,700
33,500
27,600
25,800
20,700
19,700
12,100
6,800
6,100
5,300
3,400
3,200
3,100
2,700
2,500
2,200
1,600
1,400
1,100
1,100
1,000
1,000
1,000
500
300
-200
-200
1.3%
3.6%
2.4%
3.0%
1.9%
1.6%
1.8%
2.0%
3.4%
2.6%
3.3%
3.7%
2.9%
2.6%
1.5%
1.5%
2.1%
2.1%
2.3%
1.9%
0.4%
1.3%
2.5%
2.3%
1.5%
1.3%
0.6%
-0.1%
-0.1%
July-19MSA YTY Change YTY % Change
Table 2
BEACONOMICS, FALL 2019
12
Regionally, Los Angeles County led the state in job growth in July 2019 with an increase of 59,400 positions,
followed by San Francisco MD (41,100), the Inland Empire (35,700), and San Jose (33,500). All but two metro
areas in the state added jobs in yearly terms in July. While every region in California is on track to experience job
growth for the year as a whole, performance varies across the state depending on underlying fundamentals
and the leading industries in each region: steady tech growth in the Bay Area; the energy sector in Bakersfield;
tourism, retail, and professional services in Orange County; and logistics in the Inland Empire.
To be sure, California is not without problems. Retail Trade lost 11,000 jobs year-over-year in July, wage and
job gains are stronger in some parts of the state than in others, and the housing market is struggling in many
regions. Median home prices are a mixed bag, up across most of the state but flat or decreasing in others.
Home sales declined steadily last year in response to rising mortgage rates. However, with rates turning down
since late 2018, sales improved modestly in the first half of 2019, and sales in the second half of the year
should improve over the first. Meanwhile, rents have continued to rise over the year against a backdrop of
stable or declining vacancy rates, and statewide residential construction has declined compared to last year’s
levels, making an already chronic housing shortfall even worse.
SLOWER PRICE GAINS, SALES TURNING AROUND
Source: Corelogic/DQ News, Analysis by Beacon Economics, LLC
$350,000
$400,000
$500,000 600,000
400,000
500,000
300,000
200,000
550,000
350,000
450,000
250,000
150,000
50,000
100,000
0
$450,000
$250,000
$300,000
$150,000
$50,000
$200,000
$100,000
$0
Q1-10 Q1-11 Q1-12 Q1-13 Q1-14 Q1-15 Q1-16 Q1-18Q1-17 Q1-19
Quarterly Sales Annualized (Right Axis) Quarterly Home Price (Left Axis)
Graph 1
BEACONOMICS, FALL 2019
13
Beginning with the U.S. withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership upon entering the White House, the
Trump Administration has aggressively challenged U.S. trading partners and has sought to reshape U.S. trade
policy. As home to the largest port complex in the Western Hemisphere and significant cross-border and
trans-Pacific trade activity, California’s trade-related and trade-dependent industries have a lot at stake.
California Continues Growing Despite Trade Wars
TOTAL EXPORTS, CALIFORNIA (IN $BILLIONS)
TOTAL IMPORTS CALIFORNIA (IN $BILLIONS)
Source: WISERTrade, Analysis by Beacon Economics
Source: WISERTrade, Analysis by Beacon Economics
$100
$300
$150
$400
$250
$600
$200
$500
$50
$200
$100
$0
$0
2003
2003
2011
2011
2007
2007
2015
2015
2005
2005
2013
2013
2009
2009
2017
2017
2004
2004
2012
2012
2008
2008
2016
2016
2006
2006
2014
2014
2010
2010
2018
2018
2018
YTD
2019
YTD
Graph 2
Graph 3
2018
YTD
2019
YTD
BEACONOMICS, FALL 2019
14
Partly because of sustained strength in the economies of the United States and its trading partners, but also
because of efforts to stay ahead of forthcoming tariffs and trade restrictions, California exports and imports
advanced to new record high levels in 2017 and 2018 despite the Trump Administration’s machinations. Of
course, some industries and commodities experienced declines over this period in contrast to the overall
gains.
Shifting to the first half of this year, both California exports and imports are down in year-to-date terms.
However, in light of the fact that the state labor market remains tight, that job gains continue on a sustained
basis, and that many of the state’s key industries continue to advance, it is clear that the California economy
has been bruised, but not broken, by ongoing trade conflicts.
Beacon Economics5777 West Century Blvd. Suite 895Los Angeles, CA 90045
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310-571-3399424-646-4660beaconecon.com
BeaconomicsBeaconomics delivers a current analysis of where the U.S. and California economies are headed directly from the renowned forecasters at Beacon Economics. Published quarterly, the outlook includes the latest on unemployment, home prices, personal income, taxable sales, GDP growth, and other major indicators of the economy. BeaconEcon.com
