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BECCS Scenarios and their Implications Mark Workman and Guy Lomax
BECCS Scenarios and their Implications
Mark Workman and Guy Lomax
Structure and Introduction
• History
• Possible Futures: GGR Scenarios and their implications?
• Where are we now?
• The need for a more GGR inclusive near-term policy focus
BECCS History 1 1998: BECCS Concept Born R H Williams UN University Press - Eco-Restructuring. 2001: BECS Used: Negative Emissions from BioEnergy use, carbon capture and sequestration (IIASA). 2002: Economics of BECCS modelled - more cost effective than many mitigation technologies (Rhodes and Keith). 2003: Use in very low stabilisation targets; Not an excuse to do nothing (Azar et al). 2005: BECCS important for `Low emissions scenarios’ (van Vuuren et al). 2007: IPCC 4thAR - prevalent in low carbon trajectories.
Source: Leo Hickman, April 2016
BECCS History 2 2009: Royal Society Report on Geoengineering - BECS low cost, moderate and predictable environmental impacts. 2010: `Key assumption in most modelling’ - if GGR at significant scale not possible then options for meeting targets substantially constrained’ (UNEP Gap Report). 2011 and 13: Comprehending scale workshop `opportunities and challenges’ associated with GGR technologies. (Tavoni and Socolow). 2014: IPCC 5th AR: Large scale use of BECCS and net negative global carbon emissions in 2nd half of century. 2015: Paris COP21 the 1.5⁰C target explicitly stated. 2018: 1.5⁰C compatible targets report within which BECCS will feature heavily.
Source: Leo Hickman, April 2016
Biology Biology plus technology
Technology & chemistry
Forests Bioenergy with CCS (BECCS)
Direct Air Capture (DAC)
Agricultural Soils Biochar Ocean Liming
Possible Futures: BECCS is one of many systems which can capture CO2 from the air
Source: Lomax et al., 2015
00.511.522.533.544.555.56
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101520253035404550
2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Annu
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(ppm
/yea
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Annu
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(GtC
O 2/ye
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Ocean LimingDirect Air CaptureBECCSBiocharAgricultural Soil CarbonAfforestation
00.511.522.533.544.555.56
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101520253035404550
2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
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tion
(ppm
/yea
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Annu
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(GtC
O 2/ye
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Ocean LimingDirect Air CaptureBECCSBiocharAgricultural Soil CarbonAfforestation
Low Scenario
High Scenario
Possible Futures: Low and High Scenarios
Source: Lomax et al., 2015
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20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2020-2050
Tota
l Seq
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(GtC
O2)
Ocean Liming
Direct Air Capture
BECCS
Biochar
Agricultural SoilCarbon
Afforestation
Possible Futures: Cumulative Sequestration Potential of Different NETs by 2050
Source: Lomax et al., 2015
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200
400
600
800
1000
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2020-2050 2020-2100 (Low) 2020-2100 (High)
Tota
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(GtC
O2)
Ocean LimingDirect Air CaptureBECCSBiocharAgricultural Soil CarbonAfforestation
Possible Futures: Cumulative Sequestration Potential of Different NETs by 2050 and 2100
Source: Lomax et al., 2015
Possible Futures: Global-scale industries
Biochar produced at ~20x today’s charcoal industry
Scale by 2100
Ocean Liming at the scale of today’s cement industry
Direct Air Capture and CO2 storage at the scale of today’s oil industry
BECCS: ~400 Mha of energy crops and CO2 storage at scale >today’s oil industry
Source: Lomax et al., 2015
Possible Futures: Conclusions from Scenarios
1. No Regrets GGR technologies with co-benefits e.g. afforestation, soil carbon improvements and biochar.
- No CCS dependency, low costs and low downside risk. - Should be focus for short term research and policy. - These might provide an opportunity to `Learn by Doing’.
2. To get scale up of more technologically dependent GGR systems (BECCS, DAC and Ocean Liming) will require CCS to be developed at a global scale.
Basic Research 1-2
Applied Research 3-4
Early Demonstration
5-6
Full Demonstration
7
Early Deployment
8
Commercial with Support
9
Fully Commercial
Aquatic Crops (Micro/macro algae)
Carbon Monitoring (Forestry)
Land-based Energy Crops
Afforestation & Reforestation
Lignocellulosic Ethanol Production
Pyrolysis - Biochar
Biochar Soil Impacts
Oxyfuel Capture
Direct Air Capture: Hydroxide Solutions
IGCC Pre-Combustion Capture
Geological Sequestration & Monitoring
CO2 Utilisation
Direct Air Capture: Supported Amines
Biomass Production and
Conversion
CO2 Capture Technologies
CO2 Sequestration and Utilisation
GGR
TEC
HNO
LOGY
CO
MPO
NEN
TS
CO2 transport
Post-Combustion Capture
TECHNOLOGY READINESS LEVEL (TRL)
Biomass combustion
Where are we now: Technological Development
Source: Lomax et al., 2015
Where are we now: CO2 Pricing
Source: Whitmore, 2015
Where are we now: Climate Legislation
Source: Whitmore, 2015
Where are we now - Practitioners Perspective: Drax The largest decarbonisation project in Europe
14 Source: Drax, 2016
Biomass conversion of Drax Power Station
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• Two of six generating units converted to date – £700m CAPEX investment funded through debt/equity – Negligible impact on efficiency and no loss of output – Flexible output from 200MW to 645MW per unit
• Third unit under consideration - presently co-firing.
• Recent UK Government announcements make future conversions more challenging and CCS investment no longer – Withdrawal of equity from White Rose CCS Project in September 2015
Source: Drax, 2016
High Tech Transformation at Drax Power Station
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Storage domes
Rail unloading
Screening building
Transfer tower
Rail unloading
Screening building
Storage domes
Transfer tower
Boiler and generator
Screening building
Source: Drax, 2016
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Biomass Transformation Update - Fuel and Logistics
Drax Group plc
Biomass fuel contracted position increasing • Unit requirement >2Mt pa Good progress with logistics • Expansion of UK port capability • 200 bespoke biomass rail wagons now in service
Biomass Rail Wagon Port of Tyne Biomass Discharge Hoppers
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Biomass Transformation Update - US
Drax Group plc
Construction of US pellet operations • 2 pellet plants - combined capacity c.1Mt pa • Port facility - export capacity up to 3Mt pa • Options to expand US supply chain
Baton Rouge Port Facility Hammer Mills – Morehouse Pellet Plant
Port Major Components
Shiploader Loading First Ship at Baton Rouge Transit
Domes
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Investing in Northern ports
Disruptive Energy Resources (DER)
Source: Disruptive challenges: Financial implications and strategic response to a changing retail electric business, Edison Electric Institute, Jan 2013
Where are we now: Energy System Evolution - need for capital intensive electricity generation capacity?
Where are we now: Energy System Evolution : Trans-active tariffs
Option 1 & 2: Wait and/or Conduct Research • Last Things Last `……..Therefore, embarking on the avenue toward
low carbon prosperity is the top priority. By way of contrast, recapturing CO2 can wait until adequate research and development investments have considerably improved nascent schemes: last things last.’
Hans Joachim Schellnhuber PNAS, 2012 • Need for a complete picture via research a top priority.
`…..Policymakers will need a much more complete picture of negative emissions than what is currently at hand. Issues of governance and behavioural transformations need to be better understood. The reliance of current scenarios on negative emissions, despite very limited knowledge, calls for a major new trans-disciplinary research agenda.’
Fuss et al., 2014, NCC
• Fund research, development and demonstration of GGR systems • focusing on constraining uncertainties; • developing practical accounting methods; and • bridging any other gaps between technology maturity and policy
needs. Value of GGR in tackling the most difficult emissions sources, diverting some funding from speculative clean energy research may pay off.
• Build up support for low-cost, early opportunities through existing or new
bottom-up policy mechanisms. Examples might include • subsidies for electricity generated from early BECCS opportunities such
as biomass co-firing in coal CCS plants; • inclusion of soil carbon enhancement or biochar in agricultural
policies. This will help to capture early opportunities as well as stimulating development and innovation.
Option 3: Integrate into current policy frameworks and Learn by Doing 1
• Commit to full integration of GGR into emissions accounting, accreditation and overall policy strategy
• Carbon pricing mechanisms - complex, but the commitment will stimulate investment, research and long-term planning for GGR.
• Develop steps to lay the broader groundwork for future GGR and to
keep the GGR option open, avoiding lock-out of valuable opportunities. An example of this
• ‘capture-ready’ requirements for bioenergy plants to ensure that they can be retrofitted with CCS when this option becomes viable.
Option 3: Integrate into current policy frameworks and Learn by Doing 2
Thank you for your attention
Questions and comments?
