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Below 2°C or 1.5°C degrees depends on rapid action from both Annex I and Non-Annex I countries Side-event: Bonn, 7 June 2014
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Below 2°C or 1.5°C degrees
depends on rapid action from both
Annex I and Non-Annex I countries Side-event: Bonn, 7 June 2014
Outline
▶ 1.5°C and 2°C emissions pathways
Michiel Schaeffer, Climate Analytics
▶ Decarbonisation
Marie Lindberg, Climate Analytics
▶ Effort-sharing
Hanna Fekete, Ecofys
▶ Country Updates
Hanna Fekete, Ecofys and Louise Jeffery, PIK
What does it take to keep warming below 2°C and 1.5°C?
• New analysis of scenarios assessed by IPCC WGIII AR5, including
those in the WGIII scenario database
• Analyse emissions reductions required to meet climate goals
• Scenario analysis method:
• Ensure emissions fall within historical limits up to 2010
• This excludes a few studies whose emissions diverge
significantly below or above historic emissions
• Limit below 2°C with high probability
• 85% or greater likelihood
• IPCC based on 430-480 ppm CO2eq range
• Most (90% of total) likely (>66%) probability of below 2°C
• This scenario is the same that reduces warming to at, or below,
1.5°C in 2100 with about 50% probability
What does it take to keep warming below 2°C and 1.5°C?
• Total GHG emissions would need to be zero between 2060 and
2080, and likely negative thereafter
• About one in ten chance of exceeding 2°C
• Contrast with IPCC WGIII 430-480 ppm CO2eq scenario range
where GHG emissions eventually have to decline towards zero by
2100
• One in three or greater chance of exceeding 2°C
What does it take to keep warming below 2° C and 1.5°
C?
• The IPCC AR5 warns that “Delays in mitigation through 2030 or
beyond could substantially increase mitigation costs in the decades
that follow and the second-half of the century”
• Delay of reductions to 2020 in ‘likely’ 2°C pathway increases costs
by roughly 40% over 2030-2100 (AR5)
• High-probability 2°C and 1.5°C pathways require low energy
demand and immediate action – lack of data on possibility and
implications of delay
Timeline for global GHG emissions to peak and decline
towards zero for 2°C and 1.5°C
Timeline for global CO2 emissions to peak and decline
towards zero for 2°C and 1.5°C
• ‘Likely below’ (>66% probability) 2°C pathway
requires full decarbonisation of energy sector by
around 2060
• High probability 2°C pathway, has zero CO2
emissions from fossil fuel combustion and industry
early as 2045 and no later than 2065
• Negative thereafter
Global CO2 emissions decline towards zero by mid-
century for high probability 2°C pathway and 1.5°C
Reversal of current recarbonisation is critical
From 2000-2010, the energy sector saw a reversal of the decarbonisation trend
that took place over the preceding 30 years from 1970 - 2000.
Source: Climate Action Tracker calculation based on numbers from IEA 2012
Carbon intensity for likely 2°C pathway
Carbon intensity rates will have to decrease rapidly in the coming decades:
Decreasing by -3% annually in the 2030s and close to this level through the
2040s, before gradually alleviating and decreasing by -1.6% annually in the 2050s.
-
10.000
20.000
30.000
40.000
50.000
60.000
70.000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
MTC
O2\EJ
CarbonIntensity
Historical-2000-2011
MedianValues
5thPercen le
95thPercen le
Linear(Historical-2000-2011)
Source: Climate Action Tracker calculation based on numbers from IPCC AR5
Renewable energy: good news for decarbonisation
• Remarkable trend seen in renewable energy the last two
years
• In 2012, renewables made up just over half of total net
additions to electric generating capacity from all sources in
2012.
• The effect on global GHG emissions from increased
renewables is still leveled out by increased use of coal and
rising energy consumption.
• Still, this could be the start of a new positive trend paving
the way to a full decarbonisation of the energy sector
Example: Carbon intensity for the USA
• Over the past ten years, there has been a substantial
decline in CO2 emissions in the US energy sector.
• The decline corresponds to a 15% decrease in carbon
intensity from 2002 to 2012 (about 1.4% per annum
improvement),
• primarily as a result of a fuel switch from coal to gas.
• The new policy implies an economy-wide decarbonisation
rate of about 0.9% per annum, significantly lower than that
achieved in the last decade.
• This is not as fast as is needed for a 2°C decarbonisation
pathway, and could therefore mean an actual
deterioration of the current decarbonisation rate
Example: Carbon intensity for the USA historically
and under different scenario projections
Source: Climate Action Tracker calculation based Cat update 2013
Global GHG emissions towards zero for 2°C and 1.5°C
~ -30%
Sharing the reductions in 2030
www.climateactiontracker.org
~ -30%
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Annex I Non - Annex I
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Sharing the reductions in 2030
www.climateactiontracker.org
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Sharing the reductions - Summary
www.climateactiontracker.org
• Annex I countries will need to reduce emissions beyond global average, for some
approaches significantly
• Trading of emission allowances necessary as expected developed country emission
reductions of developed countries go beyond mitigation potentials
China: substantial emission increase even with potential
absolute cap
• Personal statement by high level official on absolute caps starting in 2016, 20-25%
non-fossil energy and peaking emissions at 11 Gt in 2030.
• Potential emission targets follow current ambition trends
• Non-fossil energy target may go beyond this
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
19
90
19
93
19
96
19
99
20
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20
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20
08
20
11
20
14
20
17
20
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20
23
20
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20
29To
tal G
HG
em
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on
s [M
tCO
2e/
a]
Current policy projections(CAT assessment)high/low
Peaking in 2030
25% non-fossil in 2030
Pledge pathway (45%,CAT assessment)
Historic emissions, incl.LULUCF
US: New regulation important but insufficient step
• New regulation aims to reduce GHG emissions from the electricity sector by 30% below
2005 by 2030
• First comprehensive federal regulation of power sector and positive development beyond
current emissions projections
• Not sufficient to reach 2020 pledge, nor compatible with US’ long-term target or 2°C
Mexico: New RE target as step to 2024 objectives
• Target for 2024 (35% of electricity generation) in General Law on Climate Change
• Interim target for 2018 to increase RE to 33% of total capacity
• Implies relevant reduction below baseline and stabilizes current emission levels of
electricity sector, more needed to achieve pledge
0
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400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
19
90
19
93
19
96
19
99
20
02
20
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20
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20
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20
17
20
20
20
23
20
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20
29
Tota
l GH
G e
mis
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ns
[MtC
O2
e/a]
Reference level for pledge accordingto National Strategy
Pledge pathway (CAT assessment)
2013 current policy projections (CATassessment, low)
Updated current policy projectionsincluding RE targets (CAT assessment)
Historic emissions, incl. LULUCF
Japan: Future energy-mix still uncertain
• New ‘Strategic Energy Plan’ released in April 2014
• Nuclear energy supply will be restarted when given approval by nuclear regulation
authority, subject to local vote
• All energy supply options still under consideration; coal is “now being re-evaluated as
an important base-load power supply”
Australia: Recommended to increase ambition by CCA
www.climateactiontracker.org
• Current government continuing with repeal of existing climate legislation
• Funds reserved for Direct Action Plan are insufficient to achieve 5%
reduction target (Source: Reputex)
• Australian Climate Change Authority recommends:
• Raising ambition of the 2020 target to a 15% reduction below 2000
by 2020.
• Setting a 40-60% reduction target by 2030
• Using surplus from CP1 to increase 2020 target by another 4%
• Renewable Energy Target
• Current target: ~20% electricity from renewables by 2020
• Currently under review (due mid-2014)
• Likely to be reduced or cut
Australia: CCA recommendations
BACKGROUND SLIDES
www.climateactiontracker.org
Global emissions pathway to 2°C and 1.5°C
for 2020, 2025, 2030, 2050 and 2100
