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Benchmark climate models for IndoPacific variability
Benchmark climate models for Indo-‐Pacific variability
Impact of extreme El Niño events
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January 1998, Peru
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1994, Gash River flooding in Kassala, Eastern Sudan, 300,000 displaced
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Characteris?cs of extreme El Ninos
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Green 5 mm per day
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Extreme events
Warm pool (purple) extends to east Pacific
ITCZ moves to eastern equatorial Pacific
Zonal SPCZ
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Box 1 SST – Box 2 SST < 0
ITCZ moves to the equator
Rainfall skewness 2.7
CMIP3 good models
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(1) Skewness + (2) 5 mm per day
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CMIP5 good models
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CMIP3+5 good model ensemble
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There is a doubling of extreme El Nino events
Mechanism
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1997 1995
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Observed IODE skewness is -1
(1) Skewness + (2) Nonlinearity
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