Berkman Center Broadband Study
Thomas W. HazlettProfessor of Law & [email protected]://mason.gmu.edu/~thazlett/
Federal Communications CommissionDecember 10, 2009
Three Areas to Discuss
• Econometric and data issues• Global broadband rankings • Natural experiments in U.S. broadband
Global Broadband Race
Three Broadband Regimes
Period Cable Modems Telecoms/DSL
Three Broadband Regimes
Period Cable Modems Telecoms/DSL
unregulated
unregulated
unregulated
Three Broadband Regimes
Period Cable Modems Telecoms/DSL
until 1Q2003 unregulatedregulated with “line sharing”
obligation
unregulated
unregulated
Three Broadband Regimes
Period Cable Modems Telecoms/DSL
until 1Q2003 unregulatedregulated with “line sharing”
obligation1Q2003 to
3Q2005 unregulatedregulated but
no “line sharing”
unregulated
Three Broadband Regimes
Period Cable Modems Telecoms/DSL
until 1Q2003 unregulatedregulated with “line sharing”
obligation1Q2003 to
3Q2005 unregulatedregulated but
no “line sharing”
3Q2005 topresent unregulated deregulated
1st Period: Cable Dominates
0
2
4
6
8
10
12D
ec-9
9
Jun-
00
Dec
-00
Jun-
01
Dec
-01
Jun-
02
Dec
-02
ADSL (inmillions)Cable Modem(in millions)
Subs
crib
ers (
in m
illio
ns)
Causality asserted by the FCC• “[W]e don't have a duopoly in broadband.
We don't even have a monopoly in broadband. We have a ‘no-opoly.’
• “So how do we get Americans broadband pipes? .. [B]y letting a competitive marketplace thrive.”
– FCC Chairman William E. Kennard (No. Calif. FCBA, San Francisco, CA, July 20, 1999)
• and rejecting “open access” rules
2nd Period: DSL Surges
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
351Q
99
3Q99
1Q00
3Q00
1Q01
3Q01
1Q02
3Q02
1Q03
3Q03
1Q04
3Q04
1Q05
3Q05
1Q06
3Q06
DSL
Cable
DSL 'Line Sharing' Dereg
65% above trend
Num
ber
of S
ubsc
ribe
rs (i
n m
illio
ns) 11%
above trend
3rd Period: DSL Surges Again
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1Q99
3Q99
1Q00
3Q00
1Q01
3Q01
1Q02
3Q02
1Q03
3Q03
1Q04
3Q04
1Q05
3Q05
1Q06
3Q06
DSL
Cable
DSL Dereg II
TrendII
DSL 'Line Sharing' Dereg 12%
above trend
Num
ber
of S
ubsc
ribe
rs (i
n m
illio
ns)
1% above trend
'Line Sharing'
Trend
FTTH Deployment in USA
0
2 ,0 0 0
4 ,0 0 0
6 ,0 0 0
8 ,0 0 0
1 0 ,0 0 0
1 2 ,0 0 0
1 4 ,0 0 0
1 6 ,0 0 0
H om es P as s ed (in thous ands )
H om es C onnec ted (in thous ands )
Pre- and Post-Deregulation
0
2 ,0 0 0
4 ,0 0 0
6 ,0 0 0
8 ,0 0 0
1 0 ,0 0 0
1 2 ,0 0 0
1 4 ,0 0 0
1 6 ,0 0 0
H om es P as s ed (in thous ands )
H om es C onnec ted (in thous ands )
FCC pre-empts fiber unbundling requirements
Causality ascribed
Thank you.