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BES III: Theories & Integration Understanding Social-Ecological Heterogeneity in the Changing City-Suburban-Exurban Complex

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What is theory? Conceptual construct; Goals: Understand topic Explain observations Frame approach Synthesize cases Unify difference Generate expectations Hypotheses Predictions Forecasts. 2

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What is theory? Conceptual construct. Goals: Understand topic Explain observations Frame approach Synthesize cases Unify difference Generate expectations Hypotheses Predictions Forecasts 3

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What is theory? Conceptual construct. Goals: Understand topic Explain observations Frame approach Synthesize cases Unify difference Generate expectations Hypotheses Predictions Forecasts 4

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What is theory? 5

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11 If Then

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What does urban social-ecology seek to explain? 12

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Social-Ecological Heterogeneity 13

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What are the drivers and outcomes of social-ecological heterogeneity? 14 Social- Ecological Heterogeneity

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Social- Ecological Heterogeneity Social Differentiation Material Flows Biotic Potential 15

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Social- Ecological Heterogeneity Social Differentiation Material Flows Biotic Potential 16

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What key concepts & models operationalize the drivers/outcomes? 17 Not an exclusive roster; Operate in Baltimore region; Relevant to sustainability; Applicable to other cities.

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Social- Ecological Heteroge neity Material Flows Biotic Potential Locational Choice Stream Dis/Continuum Metacommunity Dynamics 18 Social Difference

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Social- Ecological Heteroge neity Material Flows Biotic Potential Locational Choice Stream Dis/Continuum Metacommunity Dynamics 19 Social Difference = Mechanisms & Hypotheses

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Other models and sub-theories might also apply. 20

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Social- Ecological Heteroge neity Material Flows Biotic Potential Locational Choice Stream Dis/Continuum Metacommunity Dynamics Other Theories 21 Social Difference

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22 Social- Ecol. Heteroge neity Material Flows Biotic Poten. Locational Choice Stream Dis/Continuum Metacommunity Dynamics Other Theories Social Difference Power Law Political Ecology Ancient Origin Urban Foot- print Etc.

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How do existing BES long-term data apply to the three conceptual areas? 23 Relate to LTER Core Areas: Primary production Flow of inorganic matter Flow of organic matter Population studies Disturbance Satisfy Additional Core Areas for Urban Human land-cover change and ecosystem effects thereof; Monitor effects of human-environmental interactions, and develop appropriate social-ecological data and analysis; Integrate research with local K-12 educational systems.

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Social- Ecological Heteroge neity Material Flows Biotic Potential Locational Choice Stream Dis/Continuum Metacommunity Dynamics Long-Term Data 24 Social Difference

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What do we learn about S-E Het that is unique, based on our Long-Term perspective? What do we learn about S-E Het that is unique, based on our Long-Term perspective? Social- Ecological Heteroge neity Material Flows Biotic Potential Locational Choice Stream Dis/Continuum Metacommunity Dynamics Long-Term Data 25 Social Difference

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How does each of the drivers relate to the other two? 26 How does locational choice affect: Biotic metacommunity structure and change? The stream dis/continuum structure and processes? How does the stream dis/continuum affect: Biotic metacommunity structure and change? Locational choices of households and firms? How does the biotic metacommuinty affect: The stream dis/continuum structure and processes? Locational choices of households and firms? N.B. Direct effects on each other; indirect through spatial heterogeneity.

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Social- Ecological Heteroge neity Material Flows Biotic Potential Locational Choice Stream Dis/Continuum Metacommunity Dynamics 27 Social Difference

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How do the interactions & feedbacks work? 28 Mechanisms; Hypotheses.

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Social- Ecological Heteroge neity Social Differen tiation Material Flows Biotic Potential Locational Choice Stream Dis/Continuum Metacommunity Dynamics Mechanisms Hypotheses 29

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BES III: Theories & Integration Understanding Social-Ecological Heterogeneity in the Changing City-Suburban-Exurban Complex