Beyond incrementalism and planning

The Dutch model of transition management

René Kemp

 

Presentation at ITAS, Karlsruhe, 13 nov 2006

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Planning for sustainable development

De Oosterscheldekering in Zeeland (NL): an open dam with gates that can be closedThe dam is constructed out of 65 concrete pillars with 62 steel doors of 42 metres wide. Each pillar is between 35 and 38,75 metres high and weighs 18000 tonnes

Planning has a bad name

“Too many atrocities of stupidity and immorality have been based on anticipatory rationality, and too many efforts to improve human action through importing technologies of decision engineering have been disappointing” (March and Olsen, 1995: 198-199)

Typical projects for sustainability

• Buses running on biodiesel or natural gas

• Energy efficient homes

• Solar panels

• Recycling schemes

These projects fit with certain visions of sustainable development, such as

• Renewables based energy system

• Closing of material streams

• Selfsufficiency

BUT

• the visions are not democratically chosen

• nor are they used in a programmatic way

The Dutch “transition approach”

• Led by the Ministry of Economic Affairs (responsible for business, energy and innovation)

• Goal: to achieve a transition to a low-carbon economy

• In a bottom-up, top-down manner, moving from programmes & experiments to alternative systems of energy, agriculture and mobility

Top-down elements

• 26 transition paths

• 5 platforms for energy transition

• Government support for experiments (35 million euro)

• Policy renewal

Areas of interest

Policy Renewal

Biomass

Sustainable electricity

New Gas

Eff. Energy Chains

Selected transition paths

Bottom-up elements

• Business alliances

• Experiments

• Identification of barriers / opportunities informing private action and policy

How serious is all this?

• Platform for “green resources” (one of official 5 platforms) 4 transition paths

• 60 million euro for biofuels

• In 2007 2% blending requirement for gasoline and diesel

• Certification system

Why is NL interested in biomass?

Because NL is a gas country (biomass can be turned into a gas)

Because agriculture business and the logistic sector (Rotterdam harbour) are interested in it

Because the chemical industry thinks it may obtain an competitive edge from knowledge-intensive, green materials

Because ECN is a world leader in biomass gassification

2050 Biomass 20-40% of primary energy supply ‘Vision’

2020‘Strategic goals’10-15% in power prod. 15-20% in traffic

2003 2 à 3 %

‘Transition Paths’

C. Biofuels

B. Pyrolysis

A. Gasification

ExpvE

OS

Exp

Exp EOS: experiments : R&D

The biomass vision

The philosophy behind TM: Perspektivischer Inkrementalismus or directed incrementalism

• The use of multiple visions (because visions create better world together rather than apart)

• The use of experimental learning• Adaptive portfolios: each option has to prove its

worth• Policy as a facilitator of change (with

government as partner of business)

Transition Management bifocal instead of myopic

Political margins for

change

State of development of solutions

Societal goals

Sustainability visions

Transition management: oriented towards long-term sustainability goals and visions, iterative and reflexive (bifocal)

Existing policy process: short-term goals (myopic)

Circular elements

            

  

 

 Evaluating, monitoring and learning

 

Developing

sustainability

visions and

transition-agendas

Organising multi-actor networks

Mobilizing actors and executing projects and

experiments

 

Source: Loorbach (2004)

Portfolio of official transition paths

Transition experiments

Instrument choices

Policy coordination

The use of science and knowledge

• Science, technology and innovation more oriented towards transition goals

• Visioning

• Sustainability assessment

• Discussions about transition management

What is transition management really?

• 21st century corporatism

• A reflexive form of steering (reflexive goverance)

Organisational background of Taskforce Energy transition and Platform members

Government

Industry

ScienceIntermediary

NGO

Compiled by Roel van Raak

Members of platform “green resources”

• Paul Hamm (formerly at DSM, chair)• Dhr. G.G. Bemer (Koninklijke Nedalco)  • Dhr. A. van den Biggelaar (Stichting Natuur en Milieu) • Mevr.dr.ir. M.J.P. Botman (Ministerie van Economische Zaken) • Prof.dr. A. Bruggink (NWO-ACTS / Universiteit Nijmegen / DSM) • Ir. K.W. Kwant (SenterNovem) • Dhr. P. Lednor (Shell Global Solutions) • Dr. Peter M. Bruinenberg (AVEBE) • Prof.dr. E.M. Meijer (Unilever) • Prof.dr. J.P.M. Sanders (Agrotechnology & Food Innovations) • Prof.dr. W.P.M. van Swaaij (Universiteit Twente) • Prof.dr. H. Veringa (ECN) • Dr. J. Vanhemelrijck (EuropaBio) • Prof.dr.ir. L.A.M. van der Wielen (Technische Universiteit Delft)  

  Incrementalism Transition management as a model of reflexive governance

Planning

Key actors Private and public actors

Private and public actors

Bureaucrats and experts

Steering philosophy

Partisan mutual adaptation

Modulation of developments to collectively chosen goals, government is facilitator & mediator

Hierarchy

Mechanism for coordination

Markets and emergent institutionalisation

Markets, network management, institutionalisation (both designed and emergent) 

Hierarchy (top-down)

Role for anticipation

Limited (no long-term goals)

Dynamic anticipation of desired futures as basis for interaction

Future is anticipated and implemented

Type of learning

First-order: learning about quick fixes for remedying immediate ills

Second-order and first-order (rethink following problem structuring)

First-order (instrumental)

Incrementalism Transition management as a model of reflexive governance

Planning

Degree of adaptivity

Adaptive Highly adaptive thanks to especially created adaptive capacity

Hardly adaptive

Role for strategy and plans

Limited role Important role for goals and strategic experiments for exploring social trajectories, as apart of adaptive programmes for system innovation.

Plans with steps

Interest mediation/ conflict resolution

Individual gains for everyone

Rewards for innovators, phase out of non-sustainable practices through markets and politics

Little mediation (implementation and enforcement)

Type of change that is sought

Incremental, non-disruptive change

System innovation and system improvement

Predetermined outcome

What ever it is-- it is receiving attention

Transition activities

• 70 researchers are working on transition issues in the research network KSI[1]

• There is a competence center for transitions (CCT) and two newly created knowledge centers (Drift[2] and KCT).

• Various ministries, the Interdepartmental IPE, Senternovem (intermediary organization), provinces, regions and municipalities are involved in implementing transition management.

• Many companies are involved and some NGOs (in particular SNM).• Examples of organizations active in developing and implementing their own

approach towards transition management are provincial environmental organizations of Flevoland, Zuid-Holland, Zeeland and Gelderland, and the Foundation for Nature and the Environment [1] www.ksinetwork.org

• [2] www.drift.eur.nl

Source: Loorbach 2006

1) Because of the barriers to system innovation -- which have to with uncertainty, the need for change at various levels and vested interests

2) Because public policy is highly fragmented and oriented towards short term goals

3) Because of the need for societal support for transition policies and for legitimising policies towards structural change

4) Because a gradual approach of small steps is economically not disruptive and politically and socially do-able

Why we need transition management

Dilemmas for Governance for sustainable development

• Different visions and interests

• Political myopia (politics needs short-term successes)

• Determination of short-term steps for long-term change

• What role for markets? What technologies to support for how long?

• How to adapt support policies (angry orphans problem)?

Transition management relies on blueprintsNot true: it is based on a set of goals and quality images (visions). The goals and policies are constantly re-evaluated and periodically adjusted. This creates some flexibility but maintains a sense of direction.

Transition management is the enemy of control policiesNot true: control policies are needed. Transition management adds something to such policies: a framework and a commitment to change..

Transition management is something consensualNot true: There are stakes and ultimately winners and losers.

It will succeed where other policies will failNot true: it helps to achieve greater coherence in policy and increases diversity

Misunderstandings

Reflexive strategies injecting feedback in actor-rule system dynamics

Intended and unintended effectsin material, social, and cultural worlds

Intended and unintended effectsin material, social, and cultural worlds

Actor structuring: Group formation, socialization

System structuringand restructuring

Governance System: CulturalFrames, social institutions, physical structures and tools

Actors

Strategy building

Actions

Processstructuring

BroaderLandscape: Material conditions, externalagents, larger socio-culturalcontexts

Transdisciplinary knowledge production

Participatory goal formulation

Strategic experiments

Interactive strategy development

Anticipation of long-term systemic effects

Transdisciplinary knowledge production

Participatory goal formulation

Strategic experiments

Interactive strategy development

Anticipation of long-term systemic effects

Source: Voss and Kemp (2005) based on Burns and Flam (1987)