Blue is the new GreenGoing green blue - how quickly will the world change?Prof Ray Wills
Managing DirectorFuture Smart Strategies
Blue Cities LeaderBlue Australasia
Adjunct ProfessorThe University of Western Australia
Deputy Chair, and Chief AdviserSustainable Energy Association of Australia
@ProfRayWills
Adoption rate of technology Markets tell us how quickly disruptive technologies can
impact Natural rate of turnover and retirement in technology But, adoption of new technology rarely just ‘natural’ Transitions to new technology will be more rapid where
changes are favoured by: consumer sentiment; policy measures and regulation; pricing advantage.
Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future. (Niels Bohr)
Roger’s diffusion curve
Wake up and smell the roses
Buggy whips -> combustion engine -> EVs? (Electric) typewriter -> word processor -> PC PC -> desktop -> laptop -> tablet Landline -> mobile -> smartphone (BlackBerry) Record shops Vinyl -> CD -> (Apple Store) VHS/Beta -> DVD -> BlueRay Book Shops Boutique -> mega -> (Amazon) Retail shop-> Boutique-> chain/mega -> Internet Energy -> chopping wood -> coal -> wind -> solar
Technology adoption rates – US Will solar panels be dishwashers or VCRs? (Will there ever be any more dishwashers??)
NY Times
Technology adoption rates - vehicles
Zoepf 2011
Technology adoption - manufacturers
Zoepf 2011
Technology adoption rates - vehicles
Zoepf 2011
The Big Bang Theory – the shark fin
NY Times
Technology adoption rates
Technology energy use
www.epri.com
Televisions
LaptopTabletComputer
Electricity consumption- USA
Electricity generation - Australia
www.pittsh.com.au/cedex/
Renewable energy growth
Data IEA
Potential EV growth
Global renewables 2014 +>
Declining price on solar
Declining price on solar
Global renewables
Forecasts not based on experience
Ric Brazzale, May 2013, based on BREE data
US Electricity demand growth
Global energy – fossil and renewables
Global energy – impact on emissions
US energy sources changing
Solar on Australian homes 1.2 million solar installs in Australia, total 3.3 GW of capacity; output
estimated 4500 GWh of electricity in the 12 months to March 2014. WA – 155,000 rooftops with solar, a total of 364MW of solar capacity Mandurah (postcode 6210) – over 7500 homes, 15 MW of capacity
Solving energy poverty
Solar and storage fight energy poverty Developing nations can meet modest domestic power
needs with solar. Means storage is already economically affordable.
@ProfRayWills
Efficiency in transport Energy storage key New tech may be disruptive
Rapid change - mobility
Electric mass transit Siemens Bordeaux
light rail Hybrid battery-electric Bombardier wireless
battery-electric Bombardier Slim Ride Series 700 Shinkansen
Commercialvehicles
Smith Newton electric truck Diesel Electric hybrids Honda prime mover Volvo Hybrid - Veolia London Bus
- diesel hybrid, and electric CAT Haul Pak + Earthmover Oshkosh Military Vehicle
Flying and floating fuels 25 Feb 08 - Virgin Atlantic 1st biofuel flight (But 1st USAF - 30 Oct 07) (QANTAS much later 14 Feb 11 ) 13 Sep 11 – US Navy announces
Green Strike Group, powered by renewable diesel-electric engines, nuclear power and aviation biofuels operating independent of fossil fuel supply line threat or disruption
And other diesel electric drives - MAN diesel
Blue cities:doing more with less,consuming less energy.
Global Tianjin Eco-City China Ulsan Ecocity Korea Masdar City UAE
Australia City of Sydney City of Melbourne City of Townsville City of Fremantle
Local government critical Nimble government Community demand
Smart grids devices and buildings – and microgrids…
Integrated energy planning smart devices (not grids) to coordinate the actions of devices such as loads & generators
Distributed generation changes utility paradigm
Increasing pace of technology adoption Big decrease in developmental lag Innovation/development
of new products Supply side capabilities Market competition Growing consumer expectations Higher level of communication
between consumers - blogspace CSR, reputation and CFOs Regulation Energy just a commodity
So why Blue?
Overcomes green fatigue (but not its purpose) Is about doing more with less (CFOs happy) But it is a fundamental shift
– green has been largely seen as doing ‘less bad’ and resisted as perception of doing less,
Linear approach to an end point with diminishing returns of ‘less bad’.
Blue is cradle to cradlewhole-of-life ecology and circular economy
www.blueaus.com
