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Bomet, Muranga, Nandi and Siaya 9th March 2017
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Table of Contents
TIFA’s Track Record in Opinion Polling
Bomet
Muranga
Nandi
Siaya
Observations
TIFA’s Track Record in Opinion Polling
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Professional Memberships
TIFA Research got it right in the Malindi by-election
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Opinion Poll Findings
• The objectives of the county public opinion poll surveys were as follows;
• To assess the political party affiliation in each county.
• To identify the most popular candidates in each county for the following seats;
• Governor;
• Senator and;
• Women Representative.
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Survey Objectives
Bomet County
Bomet: Methodology
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Dates 15th to 19th February 2017
Location Bomet County
Target Both males and females aged 18+ years
Data
collection
Face to face interviews, respondents sampled from households
Sample Size 660
Margin of Error +/- 4%
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Bomet: Political Party Preference
Q. Which political party do you feel closest to?
71%
15%
6% 1% 1% 4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jubilee Party Chama ChaMashinani
NASA Maendeleo ChapChap
KANU Undecided
Base = 660
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Bomet: Governor Candidate Preference
44%
32%
19%
6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Issac Rutto Joyce Laboso Dr Julius Kones Undecided
Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Governor?
Base = 660 CCM Jubilee Party Jubilee Party
45%
24% 20%
3% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Undecided Nick Salat Prof WilfredLesan
StacyChepkemoi
WakiliKoskei
RobinsonKigen
PaulChirchir
KigenRobinson
KemeiEnock
EnockKemei
PaulChirchir
ChristopherLangat
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Bomet: Senator Candidate Preference
Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Senator?
KANU Jubilee
Base = 660
Prof Wilfred Lesan is the incumbent
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Bomet: Women Rep Candidate Preference
Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Women Representative?
48%
14% 13% 12%
3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Undecided CeciliaChelangat
Ngetich
Joyce Korir BeatriceChebomui
CeciliaMutai
HellenTaplilei
Alice Milgo DorothyChep
StecyChepkemoi
PatriciaLasoi
MadamCeciliaRotuk
FlorenceKorir
Incumbent vying for MP of Sotik
Base = 660
Muranga County
Muranga: Methodology
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Dates 15th to 19th February 2017
Location Muranga County
Target Both males and females aged 18+ years
Data
collection
Face to face interviews, respondents sampled from households
Sample Size 500
Margin of Error +/- 4% at 95% confidence
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Muranga: Demographics
50%
50%
22%
29%
17%
11%
7%
14%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Male
Female
18-24 years
25 – 30 years
31 – 35 years
36 – 40 years
40 – 45 years
46+ years
Base = 500
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Muranga: Political Party Preference
Q. Which political party do you feel closest to?
88%
4% 4% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jubilee Party NASA MaendeleoChap Chap
PNU NARC KENYA Undecided Others
Base = 500
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Muranga: Governor Candidate Preference
Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Governor?
48%
34%
6% 10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Mwangi wa Iria Jamleck Kamau Dr Moses Mwangi Undecided
Base = 500
Jubilee Jubilee Jubilee
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Muranga: Senator Candidate Preference
43%
31%
18%
4% 2% 1% 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Kembi Gitura Irungu Kangata Undecided Elias Mbau Others Calaghan Mwangi
Base = 500
Jubilee Jubilee
Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Senator?
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Muranga: Women Representative Candidate Preference
70%
15% 13%
2% 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Sabina Wanjiru Chege Undecided Waithira Muithirania Mama Sacco
Base = 500
Jubilee Jubilee
Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Women Representative?
Nandi County
Nandi: Methodology
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Dates February 2017
Location Nandi County
Target Both males and females aged 18+ years
Data
collection Face to face interviews, respondents sampled from households
Sample Size 700 respondents aged 18+ years
Margin of Error +/- 4% at 95% confidence
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Nandi: Political Party Preference
Q. Which political party do you feel closest to?
Base =700
88%
7% 2% 2% 1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jubilee Party NASA None Undecided Maendeleo Chap Chap
1. Cleophas Lagat – Incumbent , and previously Principal, Eldoret polytechnic
2. Henry Kosgey - Former Minister in Moi and Kibaki’s Government
3. Felix Koskei - Former Cabinet Secretary in Jubilee Government
4. Stephen Sang – Incumbent Senator
5. Silas Kipruto – Baringo County Ex-Director for Finance
6. Abraham Mutai - Former Athlete & Athletics Kenya Regional Official
7. Alphonse Kirwa - OIe Lessos College Principal
8. Barnabas Sang - Uasin Gishu ICT Executive
9. Serem Kibet Anderson - Engineer
10. Peter Kipkemboi Maiyo - a former manager at Eastern Produce Company.
11. Stephen Tarus – Diplomat and ex-MP
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11 Aspirants for Jubilee Party Ticket
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Nandi: Governor Candidate Preference
Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Governor?
36%
21% 18% 18%
3% 2% 2% 1% 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
HenryKosgey
Felix Koskei CleophasLagat
Undecided BarnabasSang
StephenTarus
Others AbrahamMutai
Incumbent Governor is Cleophas Lagat
Jubilee Jubilee Jubilee Base =700
Jubilee Jubilee Jubilee
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Nandi: Senator Candidate Preference
50%
14%
4% 8%
24%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Stephen Sang Kiprotich Cherargei Elvis Langas Others Undecided
Base =700
Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Senator?
24% 22% 20% 17%
9% 4% 2% 1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Zipporah KurgatKering
Undecided Tecla Tum TheresaChepkwony
Selina Rotich Bernadette Tiony Esther Letting Mary Lucy Kurgat
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Nandi: Women Representative Candidate Preference
Base =700
Zipporah Kurgat is the incumbent
Jubilee Jubilee Jubilee Jubilee Jubilee
Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Women Representative?
Siaya County
Siaya: Methodology
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Dates 15th to 19th February 2017
Location Siaya County
Target Both males and females aged 18+ years
Data
collection
Face to face interviews, respondents sampled from households
Sample Size 350
Margin of Error +/- 5% at 95% confidence
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Siaya: Political Party Preference
Q. Which political party do you feel closest to?
97%
2% 1% 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
NASA Jubilee Party Undecided
Base = 350
40%
29%
20%
4% 4% 3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Cornel RasangaAmoth
William Oduol Gumbo Nicolas O. Carey Orege Undecided James Orengo
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Siaya: Governor Candidate Preference
Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Governor?
Base = 350 ODM ODM ODM ODM ODM
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Siaya: Senator Candidate Preference
87%
5% 8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
James Orengo Agnes Awour Undecided
ODM
Base = 350
Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Senator?
Independent
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Siaya: Women Representative Candidate Preference
67%
26%
7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Dr Christine Oduor Ombaka Undecided Florence Akinyi Aluodo
Base = 350
Dr Christine Oduor Ombaka is the incumbent
ODM ODM
Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Women Representative?
Observations
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Observations
• The political party nominations scheduled for March/April 2017 and this
is likely to affect the final list of candidates for each political seat. There
has been calls for strong candidates to be given automatic nominations
tickets.
• The party nominations expected to be competitive and they could also lead to fall outs. This is because there are a number of strong candidates vying for one seat under the same party.
• Party hopping law - The high court temporarily suspended the implementation of a law that stops politicians from party hopping.
• The expected rise and rise parties not in the major coalitions such as PNU, Mandeleo Chap Chap KANU, Chama Cha Mashinani that are giving strong candidates an alternative.
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Observations
• Strong candidate abandoning their seats - popular Senators and MP will need to work harder to convince voters that they can be Governors or Senators.
• Undecided voters – the proportion is high and this because the final list of candidate is not clear. Voters will eventually make up their minds as we move closer to the elections.
Maggie Ireri
Managing Director [email protected]
TIFA Research Ltd
Lenana Towers 843 Lenana Road, Kilimani
P O Box 59629, 00200 Nairobi, Kenya.
+254 205 20 22 91 +254 728 40 60 85
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