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The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets: What’s Ahead for 2014
Breakfast Forum December 5, 2013
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Land Development, Homebuildng & Multi-Family Markets Will Holder Trendmaker Homes
If Change is good, then this must be great!
The pendulum always moves fastest in the middle.
We are in a period when the pendulum is moving very quickly!
“I think I may have liked the recession better?”
Evolving MPC Sales Leaders
Changing School District Perceptions
Super Low Existing Home Supply
Lot Bidding by Land Developers
More Builder Owned Land
Longer Outlook on Deals
Lots of New Builders/Brands and Acquisitions and Mergers
• Toll Brothers • Shea Homes • MI Homes • Sitterle Homes • Megatel Homes
Challenged System-wide Capacity
Human Talent Shortages Including executives, employees, trades and craftsmen
Repurposing Land
1706 Calumet
Market Study-The Villages of Timbergrove Target Market Area and Competition
The Development-The Villages Of Timbergrove
Recreation Center Dog Park Welcome Center Splash Pad Fitness Park Detention Pond
Entry Fence and Gates Landscape of Recreation Center Landscape Around Pond Street Trees At Entry. Intersections, and Around Pond
Two Demographic Bubbles
Federal Regulation Challenges
Evidence of Surface Connectivity for Texas Gulf Coast Depressional Wetlands Bradford P. Wilcox & Dex D. Dean & John S. Jacob &Andrew Sipocz Department of Ecosystem Science and Management, Texas A&M University This study provides the kind of documentation called for by Justice Kennedy in the Rapanos decision. It demonstrates a “substantial” nexus between headwater depressional wetlands on the Pleistocene Texas Coastal Plain and navigable waters of the U.S.—a nexus that is not speculative but is the result of scientific observation. While further study is warranted and needed, this study… suggest that unless demonstrated otherwise, depressional headwater wetlands—at least on the Upper Texas Gulf Coastal Plain as a class—should be considered as hydrologically connected to navigable waters of the U.S. and thus may play a critical role in the maintenance of the aquatic and biological integrity of U.S. waters in this region.
“Galveston BayKeeper is evaluating legal options to protect prairie-pothole wetlands on the Upper Gulf Coast of Texas.”
At issue is the nature of the connection between these wetlands and “traditional navigable waters,” such as Armand Bayou. The fear is that the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers will acquiesce to developer contentions that headwater prairie-pothole wetlands, such as these, are essentially closed depressions with no significant nexus to traditionally navigable waters.
Galveston BayKeeper contends, as academic research has shown, that these wetlands are hydrologically connected to traditionally navigable waters, and that the aquatic integrity of these navigable waters is dependent on the nature of the headwater wetlands.
What’s staying the same?
Houston is still a spec home market.
School perception still drives home demand!
Houston is still a supply rich market.
Jobs Are Driving Home Demand
Not Low Interest Rates
Houston’s new home value, quality, complexity and finish is still the best in America!
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Retail Market Jay K. Sears NewQuest Properties
Annual Job Growth
U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index
Source: www.sca.ir.umich.edu “Surveys of consumers Thomson Reuters University of Michigan”
Retail Trade Sales
Source: U.S. Census
Holiday Sales
NRF expects sales in the months
of November and December to marginally increase 3.9% to $602.1 billion.
The forecast is higher than the 10-year average holiday sales growth of 3.3%.
Shop.org released its 2013 online holiday sales forecast, expecting sales in November and December to grow between 13-15% over last holiday season to as much as $82 billion.
The U.S. Department of Commerce announced that final Q4 2013 e-commerce sales increased 15.5%.
Forecast
Source: www.nrf.com “NRF Forecasts Marginal Sales Gain This Holiday Season”
Online and mobile continue to be a leading area of growth for retailers.
In this economy savvy, cost-conscious consumers go to the web to do their research and get the best bang for their bucks.
In addition to researching with their peers are saying online about products and gifts this holiday season, consumers will use the buy online pick-up in store option, retailers’ aps and mobile website.
Online / Mobile Shopping
Retailers are expected to hire
between 720,000 to 780,000 seasonal workers.
13% year-over-year increase from 2011.
Retailers operate more than 3.6
million U.S. establishments that support one in four U.S. jobs – 42 million working Americans.
Seasonal Employment
Best Buy Annual Sales
Source: www.investors.BestBuy.com
Best Buy Quarterly Comparable Store Sales - Continuing Operations
Fiscal Years 2011-2014
January Fiscal Year-End
Enterprise Comparable Store Sales
Fiscal Year 1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr Year
Fiscal 2014 (1.3%) (0.6%) 0.3%
Fiscal 2013 (5.2%) (3.3%) (5.1%) (1.4%) (3.5%)
Fiscal 2012* (3.1%) (3.8%) (0.3%) (1.0%) (1.9%)
Fiscal 2011* 5.1% 0.7% (2.8%) (5.0%) (1.2%)
Domestic Comparable Store Sales
Fiscal Year 1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr Year
Fiscal 2014 (1.1%) (0.4%) 1.7%
Fiscal 2013 (3.7%) (1.6%) (4.0%) 0.9% (1.7%)
Fiscal 2012* (3.8%) (4.1%) 0.1% (1.1%) (2.1%)
Fiscal 2011* 4.7% 0.0% (3.9%) (5.2%) (1.7%)
International Comparable Store Sales
Fiscal Year 1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr Year
Fiscal 2014 (2.8%) (1.8%) (6.4%)
Fiscal 2013 (13.4%) (11.3%) (10.3%) (12.6%) (12.0%)
Fiscal 2012* 0.7% (2.2%) (2.0%) (0.5%) (1.0%)
Fiscal 2011* 7.7% 5.2% 3.3% (3.6%) 2.0%
Kroger 2nd Quarter Highlights
Kroger's adjusted earnings per diluted share was a record $0.60 for the quarter.
Identical supermarket sales growth, without fuel, was 3.2% in the third quarter.
Achieved 39(th) consecutive quarter of positive identical supermarket sales
Reports Record Second Quarter Earnings Per Share
Source: www.ir.kroger.com “Quarterly Results”
Population Growth
5,946,800
6,127,645
6,280,138
6,435,268
6,593,498
6,754,896
5,400,000
5,600,000
5,800,000
6,000,000
6,200,000
6,400,000
6,600,000
6,800,000
7,000,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Houston MSA Population Growth
Source: State of Texas – Texas Department of State Health Services Years
Popu
latio
n
Houston’s Retail Market
at Fry & Grand Parkway
at Northpark & U.S. 59
at Kuykendhal & FM 2920
at Loop 306 & Hwy 105
in Sugar Land
in Sugar Land
New Shopping Centers in 2013
Grocery Anchored Developments Openings 2013
25.0% market share
24.8% market share
22.2 % market share
Houston – area Market Leaders
Source: www.bizjournals.com/houston – “The Business Journal Interview with Bill Breetz of Kroger”
2013 Store Openings
Planned Grocery Anchored Developments 2014 & Future
25.0% market share
24.8% market share
22.2 % market share
Houston – area Market Leaders
Source: www.bizjournals.com/houston – “The Business Journal Interview with Bill Breetz of Kroger”
2014 & Beyond Store Openings
New Shopping Centers Project s Planned
Project / Anchor Developer Location Projected Opening
Tanglewood Court Fountainview & San Felipe
2014
Spring Marketplace Rayford & Kuykendahl
1st Qtr 2014
Blvd. Place
Post Oak & San Felipe
Spring 2014
Towne Lake Barker Cypress & Tuckerton
2nd Qtr 2014
Vintage Marketplace Louetta & Cutten Rd
Summer 2014
Spring Town Center Kuykendahl & FM 2920
June 2014
FM 518 & Pearland Pkwy
Spring 2014
South Shore Blvd. & Hwy 96
2014
New Shopping Centers Projects Planned
Project / Anchor Developer Location Projected Opening
FM 1960 & Townsend
2014
Grand 10 Center
I-10 & Grand Parkway
2014
Creekside Park Village Center Kuykendahl & Creekside
September 2014
Hughes Landing Lake Front and Lake Woodlands
2015
Clear Lake Marketplace Clear Lake City Blvd & El Dorado
2015
River Oaks District
Near 610 & Westheimer
2015
Green Street formerly Houston Pavilions
1201 Fannin Street
Renovations are in
progress
New to Houston’s Market
• New concept • Opened first store in
Sugar land at 13833 Southwest Freeway at Sugar Creek Blvd on July 17
• North Carolina based
gourmet grocery store • 4 new stores former Rice
Epicurean locations • Now Open
• Phoenix based healthy foods/ organic grocery store • 4 stores now open
• Limited assortment grocery with over 1,000 stores nationwide • 13 new stores in Houston out of 30 planned
• California base specialty Grocery
• 3 stores now open • 4th store to open in Katy
at LaCenterra with 12,500 sq. ft.
• Under construction
Grand Katy location opening February 2014
• Now Open Sugarland location at Hwy 59 & University
• New Concept • About 7,500 sq. ft. –
10,000 sq. ft. • Sells products that cost
no more than $5 • Grocery anchored
• 5,000 sq. ft. Petco store • Grocery anchored & • Urban markets • No live animals • Organic foods
• New pet store concept • Looking for 7,000 – • 9,000 sq. ft.
• New pet store concept • Chicago based • All-natural food and
treats
• 4 new stores opening • Village Plaza at Bunker
Hill – Spring 2014 • The Woodlands Mall –
September 2014 • Willbrook Mall – Fall
2014 • Baybrook Square –
Spring 2015
• New wireless concept
subsidiary of AT&T • Prepaid service • Looking for 1,000 –
1,800 sq. ft. • 20 planned stores
• Dallas based liquor store • 28,000 sq. ft. • Opened 2 stores in
Houston (Humble and Westoaks)
• Plans to open 1 more in 2013 and another in 2014.
• New Palladium Theatres • 22 stadium-style theaters • Located on The Grand
Pkwy near Long Meadow Farms
• Now Open
• 8 screen • 560 seat luxury theater • Located at Westheimer
and Westcreek Ln • Open 2014
Houston Sales Comps 2013
FOR LEASING: CALL 281-477-4300
Spring Town Center Chambers Town Center Shops At Katy Reserve NEC & SEC of FM 2920 & Kuykendahl
Houston, Texas
Project Size: Anchors: 425,157 SF Retail: 153,845 SF Pad Sites: 32 Total; 5 Available
Tenants:
NOW OPEN: COMING SOON: 12 Screens 28,350 S.F.
SEC of I-10 & Hwy 146 Baytown, Texas
Project Size:
300,000 SF Walmart-anchored power center with pad sites 17,500 SF of multi-tenant retail and junior anchor space available
Tenants:
SWC & SEC of FM 1463 & Spring Green Katy, Texas
Project Size:
286,074 SF Grocery Anchored shopping center located in the explosive growth area of west Katy. This project is surrounded by the high end home developments of The Reserve at Katy (Toll Brothers with homes from the 400’s to 800’s) Woodcreek Reserve (Homes from 260’s to over $1 million). Over 1,000 new homes are projected to close in the next 12 months within a 1 mile radius of this center.
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Office Market / Multi-Use Development Jonathan Brinsden Midway
BoyarMiller Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets What’s Ahead for 2014
Big Picture
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Houston’s Economy Continues To Outperform
The Energy Business Has Changed
Houston Is A Great Place To Work & LIVE
The Office Worker Is Different
Third Coast/“Core” Investment Market
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Current Market
New Developments
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New Developments – Owner/User
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New Developments – Under Construction
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New Developments – Build to Suit
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New Development
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Total Non Build to Suit 5,400,000
Total Build to Suit 6,100,000
Total Under Construction 11,500,000
Total Pre-Leased 8,500,000
74%
Houston Supply, Demand and Vacancy
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Houston Supply, Demand and Vacancy
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Mixed-Use
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Industrial Market Welcome W. Wilson, Jr. GSL Welcome Group
HOUSTON WEATHER
We ARE the Machine
HOUSTON: THE PARAGON CITY
HOUSTON INDUSTRIAL MARKET TOTALS
506 million SF 1.977 million SF
under construction
521 million SF 5.366 million SF
under construction
2012 2013
VACANCY RATES
Vacancy by Product Type
Warehouse/Distribution 4.9% Flex Projects 9.4%
Houston Overall Vacancy Rate 5.3%
www.colliers.com/houston
LARGEST PROJECT RECENTLY COMPLETED
Igloo Distribution Warehouse 420,000 SF
BTS
Warehouse and Distribution Center
250 Additional Employees
GOYA FOODS, INC.
400,000 SF Operations and Manufacturing Center
KATY GRAND PARKWAY
SALES ACTIVITY Q3 2013
Total Sales: $146M
No. of Properties: 24
Average $/SF: $46.36
Average Cap Rate: 7.67%
TEXAS’ BIGGEST CITY AND THE LARGEST
IN THE SOUTH!!
EXXON/QATAR UPDATE
Deal signed in May 2013 between Exxon Mobil Corp. and Qatar Petroleum International
CORPORATE CAMPUSES
AMERICA’S GROWTH CORRIDORS
THE PANAMA CANAL & THE HOUSTON SHIP CHANNEL
E.T. ISN’T PHONING HOME, HE’S FUELING UP…
THE “SHALE” REVOLUTION
Driving
Energy
&
Producing
Jobs
HOUSTON…
The Gateway City!!!