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www.boyarmiller.com The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets: What’s Ahead for 2015 Breakfast Forum December 11, 2014
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Page 1: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

www.boyarmiller.com

The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets: What’s Ahead for 2015

Breakfast Forum

December 11, 2014

Page 2: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

www.boyarmiller.com

Land Development,

Homebuilding &

Multi-Family MarketsWill Holder

Trendmaker Homes

Page 3: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015
Page 4: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015
Page 5: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

# 1 Demand Driver Steams Ahead# 1 Demand Driver Steams Ahead

Page 6: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

National Economic Overview Top Job Growth Markets Ranked by Change in Emp. – Sept 2014

Source: BLS October 2014

6

Rank Metropolitan area Sept. 2014 N et change % Change

1 New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA 8,840,600 130,500 1.5%

2 Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX 2,921,700 119,400 4.3%

3 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA 5,679,100 102,000 1.8%

4 Dallas-Fort W orth-Arlington, TX 3,219,100 100,200 3.2%

5 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL 2,415,500 69,200 2.9%

6 San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA 2,175,500 60,900 2.9%

7 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA 2,468,600 51,900 2.1%

8 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA 1,851,900 50,200 2.8%

9 Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH NECTA 2,613,400 45,300 1.8%

10 Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL-IN-WI 4,518,600 45,000 1.0%

11 Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ 1,859,900 41,200 2.3%

12 Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL 1,108,600 39,900 3.7%

13 Denver-Aurora-Broomfield, CO 1,347,600 38,800 3.0%

14 San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA 1,004,900 34,300 3.5%

15 San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA 1,345,500 33,300 2.5%

16 Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX 901,300 31,400 3.6%

17 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI 1,843,200 31,000 1.7%

18 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA 1,258,300 29,900 2.4%

19 Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA 1,071,000 27,200 2.6%

20 Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN 843,100 25,500 3.1%

Page 7: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

National Economic Overview Top MSAs – Ranked by SF YTD Permits September 2014

7

Source: State of the Cities Data System, HUD, November 2014

CBSA CBSAName 2014 2013 Annual Growth % Increase

1 Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown TX 37,061 33,645 3,416 10.2%

2 Dallas-Fort W orth-Arlington, TX 21,707 20,600 1,107 5.4%

3 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA 16,176 13,914 2,262 16.3%

4 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV 12,515 13,044 (529) -4.1%

5 Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ 12,003 12,567 (564) -4.5%

6 Austin-Round Rock, T X 11,038 8,898 2,140 24.1%

7 New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA 10,985 8,783 2,202 25.1%

8 Orlando-Kissimmee, FL 9,817 9,440 377 4.0%

9 Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, NC-SC 8,887 8,558 329 3.8%

10 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA 8,633 8,863 (230) -2.6%

11 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA 8,096 7,069 1,027 14.5%

12 Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro, TN 8,040 6,796 1,244 18.3%

13 Denver-Aurora, CO 7,921 6,789 1,132 16.7%

14 Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL-IN-WI 7,699 6,940 759 10.9%

15 Raleigh-Cary, NC 7,640 8,024 (384) -4.8%

16 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL 6,914 7,578 (664) -8.8%

17 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA 6,871 6,087 784 12.9%

18 Las Vegas-Paradise, NV 6,784 7,093 (309) -4.4%

19 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI 6,775 7,003 (228) -3.3%

20 Jacksonville, FL 6,261 6,158 103 1.7%

21 San Antonio, TX 6,174 5,650 524 9.3%

Page 8: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

Existing Homes Can’t Keep Up

Page 9: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

HoustonSingle Family Home Sales - MLS

Source: Texas Real Estate Center

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

Listings for Sale

Annual Closings

Page 10: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015
Page 11: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015
Page 12: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

New Lot Deliveries Lag Demand

Page 13: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000Annual Starts

Annual Deliveries

HoustonSingle Family Detached – Annual Starts and Lot Deliveries

1

3

Source: Metrostudy

Page 14: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

HoustonVacant Developed Lots

Source: Metrostudy

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

1Q01 1Q02 1Q03 1Q04 1Q05 1Q06 1Q07 1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12 1Q13 1Q14

Mo

nth

s o

f Su

pp

ly

Lo

ts/S

tart

sVacant Developed Lots

Annual Starts

VDL Months of Supply

Page 15: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

HoustonFuture Lot Detail

79,833

56,759

1,6254,212 5,693

1,573

9,971

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

Future Lots Vacant Land Stakes Equipment Excavations Paved Streets

Source: Metrostudy

Page 16: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015
Page 17: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015
Page 18: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

Today’s Residential Business Environment?

Overheated Costs

Page 19: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

High Lot Prices and High Construction CostsResulting in?

• Market Resistance• Price Elasticity Testing• Listing Hesitation• Remodeling • Renting• Market Hesitation

Page 20: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

In closing:

• Demand fundamentals in place in the foreseeable future

• New home prices still within the medians

• Despite challenges, supply rich environment self corrects

• Houston housing is resilient and flexible

• Lots of competition keeps market creative and fresh

• New rooftops keep everyone’s market alive!

Page 21: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

www.boyarmiller.com

Retail MarketAllen H. Crosswell

NewQuest Crosswell

Page 22: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015
Page 23: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

Annual Job Growth

Page 24: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

Source: www.sca.ir.umich.edu “Surveys of consumers Thomson Reuters University of Michigan”

U.S Consumer Sentiment Index

Page 25: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

Source: U.S. Census

Retail Trade Sales

Page 26: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

NRF expects sales in the months

of November and December to

increase a healthy 4.1% to

$616.9 billion.

The forecast is higher than the

10-year average holiday sales

growth of 4.0%.

Shop.org released its 2014

online holiday sales forecast,

expecting sales in November

and December to grow between

8-11% over last holiday season

to as much as $105 billion.

The U.S. Department of

Commerce announced that final

Q3 2014 e-commerce sales

increased 16.2%.

Forecast

Source: www.nrf.com “NRF Forecasts Marginal Sales Gain This Holiday Season”

Online and mobile continue to be

a leading area of growth for

retailers.

In this economy savvy, cost-

conscious consumers go to the

web to do their research and get

the best bang for their bucks.

In addition to researching with

their peers are saying online

about products and gifts this

holiday season, consumers will

use the buy online pick-up in

store option, retailers’ aps and

mobile website.

Online / Mobile Shopping

Retailers are expected to hire

between 725,000 to 800,000

seasonal workers.

14% year-over-year increase

from 2013.

Retailers operate more than 3.7

million U.S. establishments that

support one in four U.S. jobs –

42 million working Americans.

Seasonal Employment

Holiday Sales

Page 27: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

Source: www.investors.BestBuy.com

Best Buy Quarterly Comparable Store Sales - Continuing Operations

Fiscal Years 2011-2014

January Fiscal Year-End

Enterprise Comparable Store Sales

Fiscal Year 1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr Year

Fiscal 2014 (1.3%) (0.6%) 0.3%

Fiscal 2013 (5.2%) (3.3%) (5.1%) (1.4%) (3.5%)

Fiscal 2012* (3.1%) (3.8%) (0.3%) (1.0%) (1.9%)

Fiscal 2011* 5.1% 0.7% (2.8%) (5.0%) (1.2%)

Domestic Comparable Store Sales

Fiscal Year 1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr Year

Fiscal 2014 (1.1%) (0.4%) 1.7%

Fiscal 2013 (3.7%) (1.6%) (4.0%) 0.9% (1.7%)

Fiscal 2012* (3.8%) (4.1%) 0.1% (1.1%) (2.1%)

Fiscal 2011* 4.7% 0.0% (3.9%) (5.2%) (1.7%)

International Comparable Store Sales

Fiscal Year 1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr Year

Fiscal 2014 (2.8%) (1.8%) (6.4%)

Fiscal 2013 (13.4%) (11.3%) (10.3%) (12.6%) (12.0%)

Fiscal 2012* 0.7% (2.2%) (2.0%) (0.5%) (1.0%)

Fiscal 2011* 7.7% 5.2% 3.3% (3.6%) 2.0%

Best Buy Annual Sales

Page 28: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

Kroger's adjusted earnings per diluted share was $0.69 for the

quarter.

Identical supermarket sales growth, without fuel, was 5.6% in

the third quarter.

Achieved 44(th) consecutive quarter of positive identical

supermarket sales

Reports Record Second Quarter Earnings Per Share

Source: www.ir.kroger.com “Quarterly Results”

Kroger 3rd Quarter Highlights

Page 29: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

Source: State of Texas – Texas Department of State Health Services

Years

Po

pu

lati

on

6,127,645

6,280,138

6,435,268

6,593,498

6,754,8966,788,559

5,600,000

5,800,000

6,000,000

6,200,000

6,400,000

6,600,000

6,800,000

7,000,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Population

Population Growth

Page 30: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

Houston’s Retail Market

Page 31: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

25.0% market share

24.8% market share

22.2 % market share

Houston – area

Market Leaders

Source: www.bizjournals.com/houston – “The

Business Journal Interview with Bill Breetz of Kroger”

2014 & Beyond

Store Openings

Grocery Anchored Developments

Page 32: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

Project / Anchor Developer Location Projected Opening

Tanglewood Court

Fountainview & San Felipe 2014

Hughes Landing

Lake Front and Lake Woodlands Summer 2015

River Oaks District Near 610 & Westheimer Fall 2015

FM 1463 & Spring Green Fall 2015

League City & Hobbs Rd. Spring 2016

Clear Lake Marketplace

Clear Lake City Blvd & El Dorado Summer 2016

Green Street

formerly Houston Pavilions 1201 Fannin Street Renovations are in

progress

New Shopping Centers – Planned

Page 33: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

Project / Anchor Developer Location Projected Opening

Mason Rd.& SH 290 Summer 2016

Valley Ranch

Grand Parkway & North Hwy 59 TBD - Summer 2016

Beltway & Westlake Houston Late 2016

Grand Parkway & Boudreaux 4th Quarter 2015

Late 2016

Baytown

Garth Rd. & Hunter Rd. Fall 2016

Grand Parkway & Holzworth Early 2017

Conroe

Loop 336 & I-45 Early 2017

Grand Parkway & Morton Rd. 2017

New Shopping Centers – Planned

Page 34: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

• New concept

• Opened first store in

Sugar land at 13833

Southwest Freeway at

Sugar Creek Blvd on July

17

• North Carolina based

gourmet grocery store

• 4 new stores former Rice

Epicurean locations

• Now Open

• Phoenix based healthy

foods/ organic grocery

store

• 4 stores now open

• Limited assortment

grocery with over 1,000

stores nationwide

• 18 new stores in Houston

out of 30 planned

• California base specialty

Grocery

• 3 stores now open

• 4th store to open in Katy

at LaCenterra with

12,500 sq. ft.

• Now Open Grand Katy

Location

• Now Open Sugarland

location at Hwy 59 &

University

• New Concept

• About 7,500 sq. ft. –

10,000 sq. ft.

• Sells products that cost

no more than $5

• Grocery anchored

• 8 Stores – June 2014

• 8 more stores coming

• 5,000 sq. ft. Petco store

• Grocery anchored &

• Urban markets

• No live animals

• Organic foods

• 7 Stores

• New pet store concept

• Looking for 7,000 –

• 9,000 sq. ft.

• No stores built yet in

Houston Market

• New pet store concept

• Chicago based

• All-natural food and

treats

• 3 Stores

• 4 new stores opening

• Village Plaza at Bunker

Hill – Spring 2014

• The Woodlands Mall –

September 2014

• Willbrook Mall – Fall

2014

• Baybrook Square –

Spring 2015

• New wireless concept

subsidiary of AT&T

• Prepaid service

• Looking for 1,000 –

1,800 sq. ft.

• 20 planned stores

• Dallas based liquor store

• 28,000 sq. ft.

• Opened 2 stores in

Houston (Humble and

West Oaks)

• Plans to open 2 more in

2014 and another in

2015.

• New Palladium Theatres

• 22 stadium-style theaters

• Located on The Grand

Pkwy near Long Meadow

Farms

• Now Open

• 8 screen

• 560 seat luxury theater

• Located at Westheimer

and Westcreek Ln

• Open 2014

New to Houston’s Market

Page 35: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

Houston Sales Comps 2014

Name SF Anchor(s) Seller Buyer % Leased Purchase Price $/SF CAP RATE

Grocery

Market Street Center 133,599 Sellers Brothers, Family Dollar Jacinto City LTD Rivoli Property Investors LP 100%$

3,600,000 $

73.58 9.24%

Atascocita Shopping Plaza 728,759 Aldi, Dollar Tree, Goodwill, Spec's Red Tail Acquisitions Jimmy Yee 95%$

22,250,000 $

140.28 7.54%

Woodlake Square 903,434 Randalls, Walgreens AEW Capital AmREIT 92%$

41,600,000 $

258.39 6.25%

Spring Plaza Shopping Center 55,146

Seller Brothers, Family Dollar, H&R Block AEW Capital Management David Vu 100%

$ 6,500,000

$ 117.86 7.25%

Kirkwood Shopping Center 81,607 Sprouts, Half Price Books, Spec's Revesco PropertiesPhillips Edison ARC Shopping Center

REIT 92%$

17,100,000 $

209.54 N/A

La Michoacana Shopping Center 61,777 La Michoacana, Salvation Army State Street Enterprises N/A 96%

$ 8,861,000

$ 136.69 8.00%

Kingwood Glen 103,397Kroger Signature, Radio Shack, Pap

John BVT Equity Holdings JV Preferred Apt Communities 100%$

18,000,000 $

175.00 6.00%

Spring Cypress Village 101,371 Sprouts, Specs, El Corral Sun Life Assurance PE ARC Grocery Center REIT II 79%$

21,400,000 $

211.00 <6.00%

H-E-B Grocery 75,049 H-E-BRobert Abercrombie Family

Trust Montrose Real Estate Partners Ltd 100% N/A N/A N/A

Greenbriar North 133,604Food World, Family Dollar, Citi

Trends, Cricket The Marcel Group US Investments N/A$

7,500,000 $

56.14 8.50%

Normandy Square 25,080 La Michoacana, Cash America Pawn LE Commercial Real Estate Joseph T. Kung 100%$

3,300,000 $

130.00 6.70%

Kings Crossing 127,525 Randalls, Wells Fargo Hines REIT Weingarten Realty N/A N/A N/A N/A

Randalls Center Bay Area 81,290 Aldi, Specs Gateway Sherman Inc WFP Baymont LP 65%$

10,900,000 $

134.09 N/A

Randalls Fairmont Parkway 105,488 N/A Gateway Sherman Inc WFP Baymont LP N/A N/A N/A N/A

Page 36: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

Name SF Anchor(s) Seller Buyer % Leased Purchase Price $/SF CAP RATE

Power Center/Other

The Market at Hunting Bayou 133,165 Cinemark, (shadow) 24 Hour Fitness Gordon Realty Co JBL Asset Management 74% $ 15,600,000 $ 117.00 N/A

League City Towne Plaza 100,671 Palais Royal, Family Dollar, Goodwill Brixmor Prime Real Estate Us Properties Inc 84% N/A N/A N/A

Mason Village 97,405Jasons Deli, Harbor Freight, Synergy Dance

Studio, 99 Cents Store Madison Marquette Crow Holdings JV DNA Partners 94% $ 14,400,000 $ 148.00 N/A

Sharpstown Court 84,189Office Depot, Metropolitan Furniture,

Quiznos Hsiuh Lin Trust Steve Wu 97% N/A N/A N/A

Office Depot 21,000 Office Depot Cole Real Estate Investments Avery Commercial Medium B LLC 100% $ 2,600,000 $ 124.00 9.70%

Office Depot 20,931 Office Depot Cole Real Estate Investments Orangestone Bevis LLC 100% $ 3,700,000 $ 178.00 9.40%

Pearland Town Center 718,000Barnes & Noble, Coldwater Creek, Dillards,

Macy's, Sports Authority APC CBL N/A $ 149,200,000 $ 208.00 N/A

Almeda Crossing Power Center 223,223 Ross, Staples, PetsMart, Party City, Conns Realm Realty ARCP 99% $ 33,700,000 $ 151.00 7.60%

Southway Shopping Center 182,000 Ross, Marshalls, Best Buy RPM Investments ARC Retail Centers 100% $ 28,900,000 $ 159.00 N/A

Tomball Crossing 164,000 Kohl's, (shadow) Ross, Old Navy, Petco MetroNational Kimco 94% $ 35,300,000 $ 215.00 6.30%

Plaza at Bellaire II 74,365 99 cent Only, Advance Auto Parts American Realty Group Enterprise Logic, Inc. 96% $ 16,995,000 $ 288.53

Marq*e Entertainment Center 349,336Edwards Cinemas, Dave & Busters, LA

Fitness, Improv Comedy Club Fidelis Realty Partners Levcor, Inc 95% 79,600,000 $ 227.86 8.04

Willowbrook Court 137,650 N/A Strip/Anchored property Pacific Star Esmeraldas Keila Gonzalez JV Joao R Romaldini N/A N/A N/A

Greenway Commons 253,223 Costco, IberiaBank, Bank of America ARCP Blackstone JV DDR 98% $ 33,800,000 $ 133.00 N/A

Cypress Station Square 140,924David's Bridal, Texas Workforce Solutions,

DaVita Dialysis Weingarten Realty Moiz Bhamani, Harwinder Keng 84% $ 14,500,000 $ 102.00 6.90%

OfficeMax 23,500 OfficeMax Trenton LP Bk This Way Ltd 100% N/A N/A N/A

The Village Arcade 183,000Gap Kids, The Children's Place, Yankee

Candle, STA Travel Weingarten RealtyRice Management Co JV Trademark

Property CO 85% N/A N/A N/A

Lowes 125,357 Lowes SDI Lake Jackson Holdings LLC SJS Beacon Partners II LP 100% N/A N/A N/A

Village Real Shopping Center 94,300 Half Price Books, Always 99 Cents Ersa Grae Corporation Dunhill Partners 85% $ 10,700,000 $ 148.00 N/A

Former Walmart 125,884 Former Walmart 9669 FM 1960 LP District & Urban Texas Inc N/A N/A N/A N/A

Woodpark Plaza 143,850 JoAnn Fabric, Ashley Furniture, GolfSmith Eagle Equity JV NDC Capital Partners Retail Connection JV Long Wharf RE Ptnrs 100% N/A N/A N/A

Lowes 131,644 Lowes DDR Consolidated Tomoka 100% $ 14,700,000 $ 112.00 N/A

Gander Mountain River Park 64,329 Gander Mountain Retail Properties of America RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust 100% $ 9,300,000 $ 144.00 8.00%

Woodridge Plaza 211,673 Pier 1, Mattress Firm, Chair King, Dailyspa Heitman Crow Holdings 87% $ 41,133,885 $ 194.33 6.98%

Mission Bell 99,108 Dollar General Bimillennium Property Investment N/A N/A $ 6,500,000 $ 65.59 9.18%

Eastwood Shopping Center 104,251 Hibbett Sports, Palais Royal Tobin Properties Inc. N/A N/A $ 4,550,000 $ 43.64 8.50%

Houston Sales Comps 2014

Page 37: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

Houston Metro Retail Market

Page 38: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

Houston Metro Retail Market

Page 39: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

Houston Metro Retail Market

Page 40: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

Chambers Town Center

Page 41: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

SEC I-10 & Highway 146 | Baytown

Anchored by Wal-Mart Super Center

300,000 SF project

$23 million projected cost

Chambers Town Center

Page 42: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

Fairfield Marketplace

Page 43: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

Fairfield Marketplace

NEC Highway 290 & Mason | Cypress

Anchored by Kroger Marketplace

200,000 SF project

$30 million projected cost

Page 44: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

Grand Morton Town Center

Page 45: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

Grand Morton Town Center

Page 46: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

NEC & SEC Grand Parkway & Morton Ranch | Katy

Anchored by Wal-Mart with Future Grocer opportunity

89 Acre project

$50 million projected cost

Grand Morton Town Center

Page 47: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

Grand Parkway Town Center

Page 48: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

SWC Highway 249 & Grand Parkway | Tomball

Anchored by Grocer & Club Store

500,000 SF project

$150 million projected cost

Grand Parkway Town Center

Page 49: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

Shops at Katy Reserve

Page 50: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

1681-1737 FM 1463 | Katy

Anchored by Kroger Marketplace

282,000+ SF project

$30 million projected cost

Shops at Katy Reserve

Page 51: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

Marketplace at Ninety-Six

Page 52: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

Marketplace at Ninety-Six

Page 53: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

NEC & SEC Highway 96 & Hobbs | League City

Anchored by Kroger Marketplace

270,000 SF project

$30 million projected cost

Marketplace at Ninety-Six

Page 54: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

www.boyarmiller.com

Office Market / Multi-Use

DevelopmentJonathan Brinsden

Midway

Page 55: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

BoyarMiller

Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets

What’s Ahead for 2015

Page 56: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

Big Picture

midwaycompanies.com | 56

Price of Oil

Houston Is A Great Place To Work & LIVE Densification and Connectivity

The Office Worker Is Different

Third Coast/“Core” Investment Market

Page 57: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

Woodlands, Katy Freeway

Northwest

West Belt North

Greenway Plaza

midwaycompanies.com | 57

Landlo

rd L

evera

ge

Tenant L

evera

ge

FM 1960

Greenspoint

Peaking

market

Falling

market

Stabilizing

market

Rising

market

Westchase

Overall Houston, CBD

Midtown

Southwest

Galleria/West Loop

North Loop

Current Market

Page 58: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

New Developments

midwaycompanies.com | 58

24.8%

24.4% 10.2%

8.2%

5.9%

5.6%

4.9%

4.3%

Energy Corridor West

24.8%

The Woodlands

24.4%

Westchase

10.2%

CBD

8.2%

Energy Corridor East

5.9%

Northeast

5.6%

West Loop

4.9%

West Belt

4.3%

SUBMARKET # OF PROJECTS

CBD 2

Inner Loop 1

West Loop 3

Upper Kirby / Greenway 2

Sugar Land 0

North Loop / Northwest 0

Energy Corridor West 12

Energy Corridor East 4

Westchase 3

West Belt 4

Highway 249 2

Greenspoint 1

The Woodlands 6

TOTAL 40

2

121

23

4

3

4

2

1

6

Page 59: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

5,000,000

Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016

Pre Leased Under Construction

New Development

midwaycompanies.com | 59

Total Under Construction for Lease 10,437,713 SF

Total Under Construction Owner-Occupied 7,326,600 SF

Total Under Construction 17,764,313 SF

Total Committed 12,065,459 SF

67.9%

Page 60: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

Houston Supply, Demand and Vacancy

midwaycompanies.com | 60

Page 61: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

Mixed-Use

midwaycompanies.com | 61

Three or more significant

revenue-producing uses

Significant physical &

functional integration of

project components

Development in

conformance with a

coherent plan & scale

of uses

Page 62: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

midwaycompanies.com | 62

Page 63: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

midwaycompanies.com | 63

Page 64: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

www.boyarmiller.com

Industrial MarketWelcome W. Wilson, Jr.

Welcome Group

Page 65: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015
Page 66: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015
Page 67: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

Houston…not only the City of

Opportunity…

• “Best City in America”

• “Coolest City in the Nation”

• “Best city for Job Growth”

• “One of the Top 10 Cities for Relocation”

…the City With No Limits.

Page 68: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

I don’t always try to think about the

future. .

But when I do, It’s no joking matter.

Page 69: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

• Energy Sector

• Accounts for over 50% of employment

• Has 5,000 energy related companies

• #1 in total energy, crude oil, natural gas and electricity production

Key Economic Drivers…

Page 70: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

• 78.5% increase of jobs recovered

• 107,400 jobs created

• Houston: the Master Mind of a better

future

Page 71: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

532 million SF

6.349 million SF under

construction

521 million SF

5.366 million SF under

construction

506 million SF

1.977 million SF under

construction

Page 72: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

Warehouse/Distribution 4.8%

Flex Projects 7.1%

Page 73: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

3,000,000

2,500,000

2,000,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0

500,000

Q3-2013 Q4-2013 Q1-2014 Q3-2014Q2-2014

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

Absorption

New Supply

Vacancy Rate

• Overall net absorption – 2.9 million SF

• Supply and demand balance

• Demand should accelerate once more

Page 74: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

LARGEST PROJECT

IN PROGRESS

What it will look like

Page 75: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

Katy Grand

Parkway. . .

Helping save

time by just

one drive.

Page 76: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

Q3 2014

Page 77: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

CEDAR CROSSING INDUSTRIAL PARK

• Biggest land sale ever in

Houston

• Purchased by TGS

• World’s 5th largest industrial

park (15,000 Acres)

• Largest Industrial park in

the Gulf

• Home to several well

known companies

• Plan to expand 2015

Page 78: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

MESA REAL ESTATE PARTNERS, L.P.

• Consists of 75

industrial buildings

• 80% are in Texas

• 2.5M sq. ft. of industrial

buildings

• Sold for $295M

Page 79: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

$$

$

$

$$

$

$

$

Page 80: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

In 1928, this illuminated sign, located at the intersection

of Main Street and Bellaire Blvd, was the first thing folks

would see as they approached the city at night.

And since then, Houston

has illuminated more

welcoming paths.

Page 81: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

1.1M

3.4M

2009 2014

• Out produced most

OPEC nations

• Ending the year with

3.4M barrels per day

• Saudi Arabia tries to

knock us down

• Will not weaken us

U.S. Oil output 2009

compared to 2014

Page 82: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015
Page 83: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

/

• Final investment

decision to be made

2015

• Create about 45,000

jobs

• Waiting on

Department of Energy

approvals

Page 84: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

News paper.com

• Number one port

• Have been

prosperous since the

1914s.

• Canal to be

completed by 2016

News paper.com

Page 85: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

• Distribution and

Logistics Hub

• Different means

of transportation

• No hassle

Page 86: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

Driving

Energy

&

Producing

Jobs

Page 87: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

HOUSTON…

…The City of Success!

Happy holidays

Page 88: Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2015

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