36
December, 2017 Economic Research Department BRAZIL MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK
December, 2017 Economic Research Department
BRAZIL MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK
PRIMARY SURPLUS % of GDP
Source: BCB, Bradesco
2,4%2,0% 2,1%
2,8%
1,2%
2,8%
2,1%
1,6% 1,4%
-0,3%
-1,9%
-2,5% -2,4%-2,2%
-0,8%
-3,5%
-2,5%
-1,5%
-0,5%
0,5%
1,5%
2,5%
3,5%
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
CONFIDENCE INDEX Industrial sector
Source: CNI, Bradesco
58,0
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
ÍNDICE DE CONFIANÇA DO EMPRESÁRIO INDUSTRIAL (ICEI) - DADOS DESSAZONALIZADOS
INVENTORIES LEVEL Industrial sector, the higher the indicator, the higher the inventories
Source: FGV, Bradesco
107,2
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Título do Gráfico
Historical
average
estoques invertidos
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX Sep/2005 = 100
Source: FGV, Bradesco
86,8
74,5
96
55
65
75
85
95
105
115
125
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
ÍNDICE DE CONFIANÇA DO CONSUMIDOR (ICC) E SEUS COMPONENTES (DADOS DESSAZONALIZADOS)
ConfidenceCurrent SituationExpectations
Fonte: FGVElaboração: Bradesco Setembro/2005=10
GDP Annual rate of change, %
Source: IBGE, Bradesco
4,4%
1,4%
3,1%
1,1%
5,8%
3,2%4,0%
6,1%5,1%
-0,1%
7,5%
4,0%
1,9%3,0%
0,5%
-3,6%-3,5%
1,1%
2,8%
-6,0%
-4,0%
-2,0%
0,0%
2,0%
4,0%
6,0%
8,0%
10,0%
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
PIB anual
GDP - CONSUMPTION Annual rate of change, %
Source: IBGE, Bradesco
4,0%
0,8%1,3%
-0,5%
3,9%4,4%
5,3%6,4%6,5%
4,5%
6,2%
4,8%
3,5%3,5%
2,2%
-3,2%-4,3%
1,2%2,0%
-6,0%
-4,0%
-2,0%
0,0%
2,0%
4,0%
6,0%
8,0%
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Renda real
RETAIL SALES Annual rate of change, %
Source: IBGE, Bradesco
3,1%
6,4%
13,6%
9,9%
6,8%
12,2%
6,6%8,0%
3,6%
-1,7%
-8,6% -8,7%
4,5% 5,0%
-15,0%
-10,0%
-5,0%
0,0%
5,0%
10,0%
15,0%
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
PMC ampliada anual
REAL INCOMES Annual rate of change, %
Source: IBGE, Bradesco
-1,7%
1,1%
4,1%
3,4% 3,3% 3,4% 3,3%2,9%
4,5%
3,4%
1,1%
0,1%
-2,3%
2,3%
1,5%
-3,0%
-2,0%
-1,0%
0,0%
1,0%
2,0%
3,0%
4,0%
5,0%
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Renda real
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE Annual Average, %
Source: IBGE, Bradesco
9.6%8.7%
9.2%9.9% 10.1% 9.8%
9.3%9.8%
8.9%8.0%
8.5% 8.2%7.6% 7.3% 7.2%
6.8%
8.3%
11.3%
12.8% 12.5%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Título do Gráfico
PAYROLL Number of formal Jobs, in thousands
Source: MTE, Bradesco
645,4
1.523,3 1.617,4
995,4
2.136,9
1.566,0
730,7
152,7
-1.625,6-1.371,4
-150,0
500,0
-2.000
-1.500
-1.000
-500
0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Salário Mínimo
GDP - INVESTIMENTS Annual rate of change, %
Source: IBGE, Bradesco
4,8%
1,3%
-1,4%-4,0%
8,5%
2,0%
6,7%
12,0%
-2,1%
17,9%
6,8%
0,8%
5,8%
-4,2%
-13,9%
-10,3%
-2,0%
6,0%
-20,0%
-15,0%
-10,0%
-5,0%
0,0%
5,0%
10,0%
15,0%
20,0%
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Renda real
GDP - AGRICULTURAL Annual rate of change, %
Source: IBGE, Bradesco
2,0%1,1%
4,6%3,2%
5,8%
-3,7%
6,7%5,6%
-3,1%
8,4%
2,8% 3,3%
-4,3%
12,5%
4,0%
-6,0%
-4,0%
-2,0%
0,0%
2,0%
4,0%
6,0%
8,0%
10,0%
12,0%
14,0%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Source: IBGE, Bradesco
GDP - Industrial Annual rate of change, %
8.2%
2.0% 2.0%
6.2%
4.1%
-4.7%
10.2%
4.1%
-0.7%
2.2%
-1.5%
-6.3%
-3.8%
0.0%
3.2%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Renda real
Source: IBGE, Bradesco
GDP - SERVICES Annual rate of change, %
5,0%
3,7%4,3%
5,8%
4,8%
2,1%
5,8%
3,5%2,9% 2,8%
1,0%
-2,7% -2,6%
0,3%
2,2%
-4,0%
-3,0%
-2,0%
-1,0%
0,0%
1,0%
2,0%
3,0%
4,0%
5,0%
6,0%
7,0%
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Serviços
Source: IBGE, Bradesco
GDP - CONSTRUCTION Annual rate of change, %
-2,1%
0,3%
9,2%
4,9%7,0%
13,1%
8,2%
3,2%4,5%
-2,1%
-9,0%
-5,6% -5,5%
4,0%
-15,0%
-10,0%
-5,0%
0,0%
5,0%
10,0%
15,0%
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Título do Gráfico
DESPITE THE EXPECTED RECOVERY, IT WILL TAKE SOME YEARS TO COME BACK TO BRAZILIAN GDP PEAK LEVEL
Source: IBGE, Bradesco
161.3
125
135
145
155
165
175
185
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
Contractionsince 2014: 11%
Focus Bradesco2017: 0.7% 0.9%2018: 2.4% 2.8%
2019: 2.5% 3.0%2020+: 2.5% 3.0%
CONSUMER PRICES INDEX – IPCA Annual rate of change, %
Source: IBGE, Bradesco
7,7%
12,5%
9,3%
7,6%
5,7%
3,1%
4,5%
5,9%
4,3%
5,9%6,5% 5,8% 5,9% 6,4%
10,7%
6,3%
2,8%
3,9%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
MARKET EXPECTATION FOR IPCA 2017 Average, Annual rate of change, %
Source: BCB, Bradesco
2,8
4,0
2
2,5
3
3,5
4
4,5
5
5,5
6
6,5
dez-15 abr-16 ago-16 dez-16 abr-17 ago-17 dez-17
Título do Gráfico
2017 2018
REGULATED PRICES – IPCA Annual rate of change, %
Source: IBGE, Bradesco
10,8%
15,3%
13,2%
10,2%9,0%
4,3%
1,7%3,3%
4,7%3,1%
6,2%
3,7%
1,5%
5,3%
18,1%
5,5%
8,3%
5,5%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
ADMINISTRADOS ANUAL
DURABLE GOODS PRICES – IPCA Annual rate of change, %
Source: IBGE, Bradesco
4,5%
7,9%
3,9%
8,9%
3,1%
-1,8%
0,0%0,0%
-1,9%
0,9%
-1,6%
-3,5%
3,6%3,0%
3,3%
1,3%
-1,1%-0,5%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Título do Gráfico
SERVICES PRICES – IPCA Annual rate of change, %
Source: IBGE, Bradesco
4,9%5,5%
7,3%6,7%
5,7% 5,8%
8,1%
6,7%
8,0%
9,8%
8,7%8,3%
8,1%
6,6%
4,5%4,0%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
SERVIÇOS ANUAL
FOOD PRICES – IPCA Annual rate of change, %
Source: IBGE, Bradesco
9,6%
21,6%
6,7%
2,6%0,6%
-0,1%
12,4%10,7%
0,9%
10,7%
5,4%
10,0%
7,1%
12,9%
9,4%
-5,1%
4,5%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Alimentação Domicilio
NOMINAL INTEREST RATE Selic, Annual rate
Source: IBGE, Bradesco
19.00%
25.00%
18.00%
13.25% 13.75%
11.00%
7.25%
14.25% 13.75%
7.00%6.75%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Título do Gráfico
BRAZILIAN NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATE R$/US$
Source: Bloomberg, Bradesco
3,32
2,5
2,7
2,9
3,1
3,3
3,5
3,7
3,9
4,1
4,3
mar-15 ago-15 fev-16 jul-16 jan-17 jun-17 dez-17
BRAZILIAN NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATE R$/US$, end of period
Source: Bloomberg, Bradesco
1,962,32
3,53
2,892,65
2,342,14
1,77
2,34
1,74 1,671,88
2,042,34
2,66
3,90
3,26 3,25 3,20
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
4
4,5
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Taxa de câmbio - R$ / US$ - Final
SELECTED CURRENCIES Accumulated variation in the last 12 months
Source: Bloomberg, Bradesco
10,0%
1,3%0,5%
-0,1%-1,5%
-3,8%-4,7%
-5,6% -6,2%
-8,0%-9,1%
0,0%
-15,0%
-10,0%
-5,0%
0,0%
5,0%
10,0%
15,0%
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Pak
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Ind
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Ph
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New
Zea
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Co
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Bra
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Can
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Pe
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Aus
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Swit
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Jap
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Ru
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Ch
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Índ
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Sou
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Taiw
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Ko
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Ma
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DX
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Thai
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Hu
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Cze
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Po
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EXCHANGE RATE R$/US$, DXY index
Source: Bloomberg, Bradesco
93,82
3,32
2,1
2,7
3,3
3,9
80
85
90
95
100
105
mar-15 nov-15 jul-16 abr-17 dez-17
Dólar em relação à cesta DXY. Fonte: Bloomberg.
DXY Real
5 YEARS CDS AND BRL R$/US$
Source: Bloomberg, Bradesco
181,72
3,28
1,00
1,50
2,00
2,50
3,00
3,50
4,00
4,50
-50,00
50,00
150,00
250,00
350,00
450,00
550,00
Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17
CDS_5 BRL
OIL PRICES US$/barrel
Source: Bloomberg, Bradesco
56,5
61,9
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
Mar-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Aug-17 Dec-17
WTI BRENT
IRON ORE PRICES US$/ton
Source: Bloomberg, Bradesco
12.45 12.99 12.68 13.82 16.3928.11
33.45 36.63
61.57
79.99
146.72
167.79
128.53135.36
96.84
55.6 58.9
73.065.0
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
140.00
160.00
180.00
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
NÍVEL MÉDIO ANUAL DO MINÉRIO DE FERRO (PREÇO SPOT NO PORTO DE TIANJIN/CHINA, MINÉRIO COM 62% DE TEOR DE FERRO) - US$/TONELADA
FONTE: FMIELABORAÇÃO E (P) PROJEÇÃO: BRADESCO
SOYBEAN PRICES US$/bushel
Source: Bloomberg, Bradesco
5.0 4.65.1
6.3
7.5
6.1 5.9
8.6
12.3
10.3 10.5
13.2
14.614.1
12.5
9.5 9.9 9.810.3
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Título do Gráfico
BRAZILIAN CURRENT ACCOUNT US$ million, deficit as % of GDP
Source: BCB, Bradesco
-120.000
-100.000
-80.000
-60.000
-40.000
-20.000
0
20.000
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
-3.3% GDP
-1.3%GDP
-0.3%GDP
-4.2% GDP
-1.2%GDP
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT US$ billion
Source: BCB, Bradesco
28,928,433,0
23,216,6
10,118,215,519,4
44,650,7
31,5
88,5
101,2
86,6
69,2
96,9
75,178,977,0 80,0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Título do Gráfico
BRAZIL THAT BRAZILIANS AND FOREIGNERS NEED TO KNOW
o 1st PRODUCER AND 1st EXPORTER SUGAR o 1st PRODUCER AND 1st EXPORTER COFFEE o 1st PRODUCER AND 1st EXPORTER ORANGE JUICE o 1st PRODUCER REGIONAL JETS o 2nd PRODUCER AND 1st EXPORTER SOYBENS o 2nd PRODUCER AND 1st EXPORTER CATTLE MEAT o 2nd PRODUCER AND 1st EXPORTER TOBACCO o 2nd PRODUCER AND 1st EXPORTER ALCOHOL o 2nd EXPORTER FOOD PRODUCTS o 2nd PRODUCER AND 2nd EXPORTER IRON ORE o 3rd PRODUCER AND 1st EXPORTER POULTRY MEAT o 3rd PRODUCER AND 2nd EXPORTER CORN o 3rd ELETRIC POWER o 3rd CONSUMER PERSONAL COMPUTER o 3rd PRODUCER FRUITS o 3rd PRODUCER COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT o 3rd INTERNET USERS o 3rd PRODUCER BUSES o 3rd PRODUCER FOOTWEAR o 3rd CONSUMER PERFUMES AND COSMETICS o 3rd PRODUCER BAUXITE o 4th PRODUCER AND 4th EXPORTER PORK MEAT o 4th PRODUCER BEVERAGES o 4th PRODUCER MILK o 4th PRODUCER CERAMICS COVERINGS
o 4th PRODUCER SHIPPING INDUSTRY o 4th PRODUCER PULP o 4th PRODUCER TRUCKS o 4th CONSUMER MOBILE PHONES o 4th ROAD NETWORK EXTENSION o 4th PRODUCER CLOTHING o 5th PRODUCER AND 4th EXPORTER COTTON o 5th PRODUCER AND 7th EXPORTER ORNAMENT STONES o 5th PRODUCER TEXTILE o 5th PRODUCER COCOA o 5th PRODUCER CEMENT o 5th PRODUCER PAPER o 6th PRODUCER PHARMACEUTICAL o 6th PRODUCER CHEMICAL o 7th CONSUMER MARKET o 7th PRODUCER RICE o 7th PRODUCER AND 4th EXPORTER SALES CARS o 8th PRODUCER ALUMINIUM o 9th PRODUCER STEEL o 11th PRODUCER HONEY o 13th PRODUCER OIL o 15th WIND ENERGY o 15th PRODUCER WHEAT
DEPEC-BRADESCO www.economiaemdia.com.br DEPEC - BRADESCO does not accept responsibility for any actions/decisions that may be taken based on the information provided in its publications and projections. All the data and opinions contained in these information bulletins is carefully checked and drawn up by fully qualified professionals, but it should not be used, under any hypothesis, as the basis, support, guidance or norm for any document, valuations, judgments or decision taking, whether of a formal or informal nature. Therefore, we emphasize that all the consequences and responsibility for using any data or analysis contained in this publication is assumed exclusively by the user, exempting BRADESCO from all responsibility for any actions resulting from the usage of this material. We all point out that access to this information implies acceptance in full of this term of responsibility and usage. The reproduction of the content in this report partially or in full is strictly forbidden except if authorized by BRADESCO or if the Sources the name of the authors, publication and BRADESCO are strictly mentioned.
Updated: November 3rd , 2017
