Brazilian Agriculture Outlook
Blairo Maggi Minister of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Supply
Brazil in the Global
Agricultural Trade
Brazil's share in the Top 20 World Agricultural Markets - 2015
Source: Trademap/CCI, 2015. Made by: SRI/MAPA. Excludes EU internal trade. Data extracted in June/2016.
Brazil – World Ranking, 2015
Source: USDA, 2015/16; Trademap/CCI, 2015. Made by: SRI/MAPA. Data extracted in June/2016.
Product Production Exports Market Share
Sugar 1º 1º 47%
Coffee 1º 1º 28%
Orange Juice 1º 1º 46%
Soybeans 2º 1º 38%
Beef 2º 3º 14%
Broiler meat 3º 1º 42%
Corn 3º 2º 20%
Soybean Meal 4º 2º 23%
Soybean Oil 4º 2º 13%
Pork 4º 4º 9%
Cotton 5º 3º 11%
Agriculture in
Brazilian Economy
Share of Agribusiness in Brazilian Economy
Source: CEPEA/USP, 2015.
World Demand and Supply
Prospects for Food
Asia: Future of agriculture exports
51% world’s population 19% GDP 18% available land 23% renewable water
Consumption (% world)
28% chicken 20% beef 31% dairy products 37% sugar
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST : Bangladesh, Bhutan, Brunei, Cambodia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Laos, Macau, Malaysia,
Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Thailand, East Timor, Vietnam
Source: ICONE
0.664 0.703 0.68
0.338 0.333 0.322 0.255
1.74
3.228
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2009 2020 2030
Europe North America Pacific Asia Central and South America Middle East and North Africa sub-Saharan Africa
Global Middle Class evolution (in billion of people)
1,845
3,249
4,884
Source: OECD Elaboration: SRI / MAPA
Land and Water Available in the World
Note: Land – available, not protected (including pastures). Water – total renewable water sources
Source: Fischer e Shah (2010) in World Bank, 2010 (Rising Global Interest in Farmland: Can it Yield Sustainable and Equitable Benefits?). Elaboration: ICONE, FAO
Land Distribution in Brazil
Source: Embrapa, IBGE, CNA, MMA, FUNAI, DNIT, ANA, MPOG. Preparation: Embrapa Monitoring
Brazil: Green Savings - Grains
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
197
6/7
7
197
7/7
8
197
8/7
9
197
9/8
0
198
0/8
1
198
1/8
2
198
2/8
3
198
3/8
4
198
4/8
5
198
5/8
6
198
6/8
7
198
7/8
8
198
8/8
9
198
9/9
0
199
0/9
1
199
1/9
2
199
2/9
3
199
3/9
4
199
4/9
5
199
5/9
6
199
6/9
7
199
7/9
8
199
8/9
9
199
9/0
0
200
0/0
1
200
1/0
2
200
2/0
3
200
3/0
4
200
4/0
5
200
5/0
6
200
6/0
7
200
7/0
8
200
8/0
9
200
9/1
0
201
0/1
1
201
1/1
2
201
2/1
3
201
3/1
4
201
4/1
5
Produção (milhão de ton) Área (milhão hectares)
Área da segunda safra (milhão hectares) Produtividade na área de verão (ton/ha)
Mil
lio
n o
f h
ec
tare
s o
r to
ns
Yield 4.5 t/ha
Yield 1.4 t/ha
Source: CONAB
LAND SAVINGS: keeping the same average yield of 1976, 156.6 million hectares (3.3 times the current area) would be necessary in order to produce 202.2 million tons
+220%
38
years
Production (million tons) Area of second harvest (million hectares)
Area (million hectares) Yield in the summer area (tons/ha)
Brazilian products feature:
Sustainability
Fair work
Social responsability
Traceability
Functional foods
Geographical indication
Value adding
AGROECOLOGY AND ORGANIC PRODUCTION
22.5% OF BRAZILIAN MUNICIPALITIES
ALREADY HAVE ORGANIC PRODUCTION
Distribution of Organic Production Units per Micro-Regions, March 2016
Over 100
Source
Control Procedures for Guaranteeing Organic Quality
ORGANIC PRODUCTS SEAL
AGROECOLOGY AND ORGANIC PRODUCTION
Phytosanitary Products Approved for Organic Agriculture
1
20
29 33
37 37 41
3
14
20 27
49
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1984 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Nu
mb
er o
f re
gist
ered
pro
du
cts
Anos
BIOLOGICAL PRODUCTS REGISTRATION - JAN 2016 EMERGENCY REGISTRATION NOT INCLUDED
Via Organico
Via Convencional
41 biological products have been registered along 31 years (1984-2015) for traditional agriculture whilst 49 products were registered for organics in a 5 year period (2010-2015)
IN 2016 5 BIOLOGICAL PRODUCTS
HAVE ALREADY BEEN
REGISTERED FOR ORGANICS AND THERE ARE
33 REGISTRATION APPLICATIONS UNDER REVIEW
AGROECOLOGY AND ORGANIC PRODUCTION
Organics
Traditional
Investment Opportunities
Logistics in the “North Arco”: Waterways, Highways and Railroads
Cities
States
Other Latin America countries
Waterways
Railroads planned or under construction
Railroads for concession
Railroads
Highways planned or under construction
Highways for concession
Highways
Infrastructure: Ports
• By July 2016, 180 port facilities have already been authorized by the Federal Government Agencies (ANTAQ):
Source: ANTAQ
Investments in ports have
reached US$ 4.9 billion in 2016
20
New Concessions for Railroads
AM
AC
RR
RO
PA
AP
TO
MA
PI
CE
RN
PB
PE
AL
SE BA
MT
DF
MS
GO
MG
ES
RJ
SP
PR
SC
RS
Barcarena
Açailândia
Santarém
Miritituba
Sinop Lucas do
Rio Verde
Sapezal
Porto Velho
Figueirópolis Barreiras
Eliseu
Martins
Salvador
Guanambi Campinorte
Anápolis
Corinto Estrela
D’Oeste
Dourados
Estreito
Aguiarnópolis
Xambioá
Cuiabá
Panorama
Porto Alegre
Corumbá
Uruguaiana
Rondonópolis
Alto Araguaia
Chapecó
Passo Fundo Santa
Maria
Palmas
Belo
Horizonte
Sinop/MT - Miritituba/PA (990 km)
Sapezal/MT - Porto Velho/RO (950 km)
FICO - Lucas do Rio Verde/MT - Campinorte/GO
(883 km)
Estrela D’Oeste/SP - Dourados/MS (659 km)
Anápolis/GO - Corinto/MG
(775 km)
Ferrovia Norte-Sul
Açailândia/MA - Barcarena/PA (457 km)
Vitória/ES - Rio de Janeiro/RJ
572 km
Pecém
Ilhéus
Vitória
Rio de
Janeiro
Paranaguá
Santos
Rio Grande
Suape
Itaqui
Vila do Conde
Ferrovia Norte-Sul
Palmas - Estrela D’Oeste (1.536 km)
Malha Principal
Em construção
Estudos prontos
PMI
Belo Horizonte/MG – Guanambi/BA
(845 km)
Finished studies for new railroads: 2,991 km Studies under review: 4,676 km
Main rail
Under construction
Finished studies
Studies under review
Storage Opportunities
Source: CONAB
0,87 PR
0,71 MT
0,69 GO
0,65 MS
0,64 BA
0,61 MA
0,50 TO
0,42 PI
Production/
Current capacity
States
• The current static storage capacity is of 145
million tons
Over 45 million tons need investment
Capacity Distribution
Difference (thousand tons)
Brazil and the Future of Agriculture World:
• Growth in global food demand (mainly Asia) BRAZIL:
• High availability of land and water
• Sustainability
• Technology leader in tropical agriculture
• High level of environmental protection
• Great strides in adding value to Brazilian products (including organic farming)
• Many opportunities for investment in agriculture, particularly in the area of
infrastructure and logistics (transport and storage)
Thank you!