Brewers Association 2020Hop & Brewing Industry
Update
“Yesterday’s home runs don’t
win today’s games”
– Babe Ruth
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Objectives
• Brewing & Hop Industry Updates
• Annual BA Hop Survey Results
• USDA-NASS Hop Stocks Report Analysis
• Federal & International Ag Affairs Update
• BA Grants & Research Support
• Public Hop Research Sensory Update
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2019 Brewing Industry Update
• Total U.S. beer sales down ~1.5% (through Nov)
• Total number of U.S. breweries tops 8,000 for first time ever (~7,000 one year ago)
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US Craft Beer Volume % Change YOY
4%est
4%5%
6%
13%
18%18%
15%13%12%
7%6%
12%13%
8%
5%
1%2%
1%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
2019201720152013201120092007200520032001
Beer Production Year
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US Craft Beer Production Volume (MM US BBL)
26.7 25.6 24.9 24.1
23.1 22.2
18.8
13.2 11.5
10.1 9.1 8.5 8.0 7.1 6.3 5.8 5.5 5.5 5.4
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
2019201720152013201120092007200520032001
Beer Production Year
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2019 Hop Industry Update
• Ttl U.S. acres increased from 57,468 to 58,930 (+2.5%), an all-time high
PACNW acres increased by 1,500 (2.7%)
Non-PACNW acres decreased by 47 from 2433 to 2386 (-1.9%)
• Aroma Acreage proportion remained increased slightly in 2019
• Ttl U.S. production +4.3% to 113.0 MM pounds
• Non-PACNW production -33% (-45% vs CY17) to ~1 MM pounds
• PACNW yield increased from 1943 to 1981 pounds per acre (2%)
• Citra acreage (8,690) increased 36%
Data courtesy USDA-NASS ©2019 and USAHops ©2020
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2019 Brewers Association Hop Survey• Annual Survey in July & August
• 12 Years of Data collected 2008 - 2019
• Look back to beer production years 2007 – 2018
•2019 Survey = 2018 Beer Production ~= 2017 Crop Yr
• Based on craft volume as defined
• A SURVEY, so the results shown are NOT totals: “Actual Mileage May Vary”
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Hop Survey Sponsorship
Cascade: Underplanted?
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2019 Hop Survey Results Summary
• Hop Usage Rate: +2.5% to 1.72 PPB
• Variety Usage increased to an all-time high of 163 varieties
• U.S. craft brewers remain loyal to U.S. varieties at 87% of total pounds
• Shortfalls measured In 2018 in different varieties from 2017
• Galaxy repeats as highest Impact imported variety
• Hop Cost Per Barrel Continues to Increase Sharply
• Proportion of US 2017 crop consumed by craft decreased
• Contracting rates increased sharply after three years of declines
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Average Hopping Rate (Pounds per Barrel)
0.93 0.92
1.05
1.18
1.28 1.30
1.361.39
1.501.54
1.58
1.72
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
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Total Number of Varieties Used
90 8892
97
105
114
132135
125
146
154
163
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Survey Year
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Percentage U.S Grown Hops Used
80.4%79.4%
82.6%
84.5%
88.8%
87.6% 87.8%
84.70% 84.8%
83.4%
85.7%
87.0%
74%
76%
78%
80%
82%
84%
86%
88%
90%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Survey Year
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Variety Shortfall
15.8%
11.6%
8.2%7.5%
2.1% 2.1% 2.1%1.4% 1.4% 1.4%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
Citra Galaxy Mosaic NelsonSauvin
Cashmere Strata Vic Secret El Dorado Motueka Sabro
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Variety Impact & Thiol Flavor Domination
4 46
810
1113
17 17
22
26
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Cascade Citra Centennial Mosaic Amarillo Simcoe Chinook El Dorado CTZ Azacca Galaxy
Impact = Rank of Frequency + Rank of Pounds
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$9.56
$4.59
$9.67
$11.26
$12.54
$16.05
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
$16
$18
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Survey Year
Aggregate Hop Cost per Aggregate Barrels Across All Respondents
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Craft Brewer Contracting
78.6%
84.1% 83%
89.0%92.8% 92%
96.6% 95.8% 96.0%
89.0%
63.3%
72.8%
69.2%73.3%
71%
82.4%86.1%
91.2% 93.0% 91.4%89.0%
71%
45.6%
53.9%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
All Brewers
Brewers under 2500 bbl
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2019 Hop Stocks Analysis
Source: USDA-NASS 2018 Hop Stocks Report
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2019 Hop Stocks Analysis
Data Source: USDA-NASS 2019 Hop Stocks Report
74.5%
79.9%
97.3%
118.3%
111.8%108.7%
92.6%
81.5%
78.0%
80.6%87.7%
132.8%
148.2%
157.9%
130.0%
116.9%
107.8%
112.5%
106.0%
106.1%
50%
70%
90%
110%
130%
150%
170%
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018
September Total Stocks (Carryout) as Proportion of Prior Year Crop Pounds
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2019 Hop Stocks Analysis
Data Source: USDA-NASS 2019 Hop Stocks Report
-41.9%
-32.6%
-7.5%
-1.7%1.8%
-10.9%
-39.7%
-26.0%
-18.3%
-18.6%
-7.4%-4.6%
-12.3%
-3.4%
5.8% 12.7%
16.5%
34.4%
27.9%
37.8%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
September Dealer & Grower Stocks Less Brewer Stocks As A Proportion of Prior Year Crop
Dealer Held Net Inventory Era (Since
2013)
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Federal Affairs Outreach 2019
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show
International Ag Policy
https://www.deutscher-hopfen.de/de/Presse/Global-Hop-Summit
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show
Principles of Integrated Crop Protection
Location
Fertilization
Clean PlantsVariety Choice
Cover Cropping Erosion Control
IrrigationPromote Beneficials
Hygiene MeasuresPreventive Action
Pest Control, Decision Support
Inspection
Warning Service
Forecasting System
Economic Thresholds
Mechanical & Fire Pruning
Biological & Biotechnical Control
No Chemical Control
Chemical ControlChemical
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Grants and Research Funding Update
Years 2015 - 2019
Competitive Research Grants $879,589
HGA Sponsorships and Projects $26,500
HRC Dues & Growout Funds $229,594
USDA Breeding Program $687,357
Total Hop Industry Support $1,823,040
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show
Best Practices Directory
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Public Hop Program ResearchRenee Eriksen:
Genetics of
• Drought Tolerance
• Heat StressDan Groenendale
Angela Randazzo
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Public Breeding Sensory Update
CHEERS!