Savills Research Victoria Briefing Melbourne Industrial July 2015 Highlights Melbourne’s infrastructure continues to give it a competitive advantage A total of 648,324 square metres was reported leased in the year to June 2015 Pre-commitment activity accounted for 185,309 square metres of reported leasing Industrial rents generally range from $67 to $90 a square metre for prime industrial space A total of $1.47 billion of industrial property was sold in the year to June 2015 Land values range from $95 to $250 a square metre for land between 1 and 5 hectares Investment yields for prime industrial property in a range of 6.50% to 7.75% Signs of a recovery in tenant demand are now underway with solid increases in recent levels of leasing activity Strong competition from local Institutions & Privates as a record number of sales transact Savills Research
Transcript
Savills Research Victoria
Briefing Melbourne Industrial July 2015
Highlights Melbourne’s infrastructure continues
to give it a competitive advantage
A total of 648,324 square metres was reported leased in the year to June 2015
Pre-commitment activity accounted for 185,309 square metres of reported leasing
Industrial rents generally range from $67 to $90 a square metre for prime industrial space
A total of $1.47 billion of industrial property was sold in the year to June 2015
Land values range from $95 to $250 a square metre for land between 1 and 5 hectares
Investment yields for prime industrial property in a range of 6.50% to 7.75%
Signs of a recovery in tenant demand are now underway with solid increases in recent levels of leasing activity
Strong competition from local Institutions & Privates as a record number of sales transact Savills Research
Savills Research | Melbourne Industrial July 2015
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Savills Victoria Team Research Valuation & Consultancy Director
Savills Victoria Level 25, 140 William St Melbourne VIC 3000 Australia +61 (0) 3 8686 8000 savills.com.au
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Introduction Melbourne is Australia’s largest industrial property market in terms of the amount of land stock with in excess of 25,700 hectares. Industrial users range from domestic service industries such as mechanics and smash repairers to local and national distribution facilities and major manufacturing plants. Some of these industrial requirements are replicated in all capital cities of Australia. Aside from being the largest industrial property market in the country there are a number of other discriminating factors about Melbourne and industry. First, approximately 40% of Australia’s container shipping travels through the Port of Melbourne. This cements the position of Melbourne as a substantial distribution centre. Second, Melbourne remains the manufacturing centre of Australia. Throughout this document the Melbourne industrial market will be referred to in three main precincts being the South East, North West and City Fringe. The main suburbs within these precincts are tabulated below.
Precinct Suburbs
South East Dandenong, Braeside, Mulgrave, Clayton, Moorabbin, Rowville, Knoxfield, Scoresby, Bayswater, Croydon, Keysborough, Mt Waverley, Notting Hill, Carrum Downs
North West Somerton, Campbellfield, Epping, Thomastown, Broadmeadows, Tullamarine, Footscray, Sunshine, Altona, Deer Park, Laverton North, Derrimut, Brooklyn, Truganina
City Fringe Port Melbourne, West Melbourne, North Melbourne, Richmond, Collingwood, Abbottsford, Brunswick, South Melbourne
Source: Savills Research
Infrastructure Melbourne has, without doubt, the best industrial infrastructure in the country. The road system built in the last decade has created a major heavy vehicle route through the centre of the city with a ring road giving easy access to all of metropolitan Melbourne. The road system allows almost uninterrupted access to interstate routes from anywhere within the metropolitan area. In 2008 the Australian Government established the Building Australia Fund to fund critical infrastructure projects, including transport. In the 2009/10 Budget, the Australian Government committed $8.5 billion to projects for road, rail and port infrastructure, of which, $7.8 billion is to be funded through the Building Australia Fund. For Victoria this included preconstruction work for the Melbourne Metro 1 (formerly known as East-West Rail tunnel), aimed at informing the best way to deliver the construction of a new 8 kilometre, two track rail tunnel running under the Melbourne City Business District to relieve congested rail lines and improve travel times. With construction
commenced in 2009, the Regional Rail Link is also funded as part of the Building Australia Fund. This link will provide up to 50 kilometres of dual track rail link from West Werribee to Southern Cross Station in central Melbourne via Sunshine and is approaching completion. First identified in Sir Rod Eddington’s independent study into transport connections across Melbourne in 2008, the planning and consultation study for the western section (WestLink) of the East West Link commenced in 2009. Planning was underway for the first stage of the East West Link following the release of the former State Government’s impact statement in late 2013. The contract for construction and maintenance was awarded to East West Connect and Stage 1 was expected to begin before the end of 2014. The new majority State Government arising from the November 2014 election however, ran on the platform that the East West Link contracts would not be honoured because the project was based on a legally unsound business case. As a result, the new Victorian Government has
instructed the East West Connect Partnership to immediately suspend works on the East West Link. Work is instead expected to be prioritised towards the election commitment of removing what it has identified as fifty of the State’s most dangerous and congested level crossings. Under the former Victorian State Government, the Port of Hastings was to be the preferred site for future container development, with container throughput at the Port of Melbourne expected to quadruple over the next 25 years. The solution was to supplement rather than replace Melbourne, with both ports expected to continue to operate in parallel. The new State Government shares the previous Government’s aspiration for a proposed second container port; although alternative locations are likely to be considered, as per pre-election undertakings. In June, the State Government introduced legislation into Parliament to create Infrastructure Victoria (InVic), an independent body to provide infrastructure strategy around needs and priorities.
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Leasing Activity Savills monitors reported industrial leasing activity of premises with greater than 1,000 square metres of GLA. A total of 648,324 square metres of industrial space was reported leased from 92 deals in the year to June 2015. The previous
twelve months by comparison recorded a total of 497,238 square metres of stock leased from 82 deals. This result suggests an improvement in conditions from an environment that has been a difficult
one for landlords and developers in recent years. This is further emphasised when compared favourably to the decade average prior to this year of 598,982 square metres per annum.
The table below details select major leases reported. Select Melbourne Industrial Existing Leases to June 2015
Date Property GLA (sq m) Rent
($/sq m) Tenant
Feb-15 400 City Rd, Southbank 9,000 111 Planetshakers
May-15 18-34 Aylesbury Dr, Altona North 9,077 75 Cosmic S & S
Jun-15 7 Dalmore Dr, Scoresby 24,414 na CSR Building Products
Jun-15 23 Fillo Dr, Somerton 4,252 na Tes-Amm
Jun-15 305 Dandenong Rd, Dandenong South 3,327 na Elite Surface Technologies
Source: Savills Research na = not currently available
Of the space reported leased during the past year, the focus has been in the North West (47 percent) with the South East not too far behind (42 percent). City Fringe accounted for 3 percent of leases reported.
Select Melbourne Industrial Pre-Commitment Leases to June 2015
Source: Savills Research na = not currently available
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Savills recorded 185,309 square metres of precommitment activity in the year to June 2015. This is a solid improvement on the activity recorded in the preceding twelve months (93,938 square metres), and down slightly on the historical ten year average of 199,254 square metres. This is indicative of generally improving business confidence with a perceived recovery in financial markets and a reduction of a comparatively high Australian dollar which prior to mid 2013 was at parity or higher against the US dollar. Development finance generally continues to be difficult to acquire, expensive and is dependent on precommitting covenant. There have been some significant precommitment deals successfully completed. These include Austrans (14,570 square metres, Truganina), Adairs (6,698 square metres, Keysborough), Miele Australia (15,000 square metres, Keysborough), Bluestar Group (6,789 square metres, Keysborough), Godfreys (12,370 square metres, Altona North), Woodhouse Timber Company (Dandenong South) and substantial precommitments to TNT and Toll Holdings in Tullamarine. Competition remains strong among developers to secure pre-lease tenants, limiting upward pressure on rents. Whilst some speculatively build developments in the last 18 months have been met with some success, tenant demand generally does not support such. This may change as available prime grade space becomes more limited or developers attempt to take advantage of the strength in the investment market by providing rent guarantees.
Over the six years from 2001 to 2007 low interest rates encouraged many industrial occupiers to become owner-occupiers. Approximately 20 percent of reported sales over those six years were to owner-occupiers. This led to a more subdued rental market than would have otherwise been the case. The prevailing low interest rate environment has again been providing opportunities in the owner occupier market which until very recently represented circa 17% of reported sales value and is currently 12% over the year to June 2015 as Private Investors and Fund purchasers in particular increase their presence as a proportion of total sales. For the South East however, owner occupier sales represented a strong 19 percent of sales value in the twelve months to June 2015, accounting for the comparatively subdued leasing activity for the region over the same period. Over the decade, the growth in rents has been due mostly to the ongoing erosion of development profit margins.
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
Melbourne IndustrialMetropolitan Leases by Lease Type (sq m)
Jun-05 to Jun-15
Direct PrecommitSource: Savills Research
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
Melbourne IndustrialMetropolitan Leases by Lease Size (sq m)
Construction costs have generally retreated in recent years whilst pre-commitment rents have remained steady, albeit with the introduction of incentives. We believe the industrial rental market is entering a stage where improving fundamentals may build a case for upward pressure on rents, though at levels at or below CPI.
Sales Activity
Savills monitors reported industrial property sales activity with a price greater than $2 million. Over the year to June 2015 a total of 151 sales were reported with a total value of $1,473 million. This followed a strong previous twelve month period when a total of $1,305 million of sales were reported. The number of transactions also increased, up significantly on the 104 recorded in the previous period.
Melbourne’s South East recorded the most number of transactions in the year to June 2015 with 87 (58% of all sales), however it was the North West region that accounted for the greatest dollar volume with 47 percent of the total transaction value for the year.
In the South East, the Private Investor buyer group slightly edged out the combined Fund and Trust category, with 30 percent and 27 percent of the value of stock reportedly sold respectively. Owner Occupiers have a comparatively high proportion also, accounting for 19 percent of total sales value.
Fund and Trust investor demand is traditionally strong in the North West, however Private Investors represented the largest buyer category by value of all stock, at 46 percent. Funds and Trusts made up 23 percent of total sales volume.
Sales in the price range of $2 million to $10 million made up a robust 33 percent of total sales activity by value. A total of $484 million dollars was exchanged in this price bracket which is up considerably on the 10 year average of $318 million. Significantly, $676 million was transacted in the price bracket greater than $20 million which is considerably higher than the prior 10 year average of $438 million.
Melbourne Industrial Land Values – June 2015
Precinct 3,000 – 5,000 sq m ($/sqm)
10,000 – 50,000 sqm ($/sqm)
10ha + ($/sq m)
Englobo ($/sq m)
North & West 145 – 225 up to 300 95 – 155 up to 200 70 – 100 20 - 60
City Fringe* 600 – 1,100 500 – 800 na na
South Eastern 185 – 240 up to 300 170 – 250 110 – 140 30 – 80
Source: Savills Research na = not currently available *City Fringe indicative land value estimates ignore Capital City Zone evidence
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
Melbourne IndustrialAverage Prime Net Face Rents by Precinct ($/sq m)
Jun-05 to Jun-15
City Fringe North & West South EasternSource: Savills Research
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
$2,000
Melbourne IndustrialMetropolitan Industrial Sales ($m and number)
(>$2m) Jun-05 to Jun-15
Sales >$2m (LHS) Sales No (RHS)Source: Savills Research
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The following tables highlight a selection of industrial sales for the year to June 2015. Select Melbourne Industrial Investment Sales to June 2015
The dynamics of industrial buyers has changed significantly since the global credit crisis and has impacted most profoundly on trusts and funds.
In 2008 and 2009 Savills witnessed a considerable return to the industrial property investment market of private investors. These investors were largely sidelined in the years leading up to the peak of the market in late 2007 as the weight of money invested by trusts and funds placed upward pressure on capital values, out-pricing other investors.
In the last two years, Funds and Trusts have returned to the market. Given the amount of capital raising, debt restructuring and slow easing of restrictions to debt finance, Funds and Trusts are generally better positioned to actively participate in the market. They have been more discerning with respect to the type of asset and its tenure however, preferring a “super” Prime category of industrial asset.
Private investors were until the year 2013, the dominant buyer in the industrial market prior to the trusts and funds returning. The current environment of record low interest rates and comparatively attractive returns has seen a return of the Privates to represent a strong 40 percent of sales value. Sub $20 million sales currently represent over half of total sales value.
Owner occupiers accounted for the purchase of 12 percent of stock greater than $2 million reported as sold in the Melbourne industrial market. This is expected to continue as the low interest rate environment is likely to remain, with some expectation around a further decrease in official cash rates in 2H2015.
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
7.5%
8.0%
8.5%
9.0%
9.5%
10.0%
Melbourne IndustrialAverage Prime Market Yields by Precinct (%)
Jun-05 to Jun-15
City Fringe North & West South Eastern
Source: Savills Research
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
Melbourne IndustrialAverage Prime Capital Values by Precinct ($/sq m)
Jun-05 to Jun-15
City Fringe North & West South Eastern
Source: Savills Research
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Market yields for prime industrial buildings as at June 2015 are estimated to range between 6.50% and 7.75% for each of Melbourne’s sub regions; the North West, South East and City Fringe. Recent downward pressure on industrial prime yields has occurred as Funds and Trusts have increasingly returned to the sector and compete with an ever increasing Foreign Investor presence in the sector. Foreign Investors accounted for 9 percent of total sales value for the year to June 2015. After remaining steadfast for several years, prime yields at both ends of their range have indicatively come in 50 to 100 basis points over the last twelve months. Whilst Funds and Trusts as well as Foreign Investors compete with the Private Investors in the North West, Funds and Trusts as well as Owner Occupiers vie for assets with Privates. Despite little or no change to prime industrial face rents in Melbourne’s sub regions, the compression of yields has helped return some value to industrial assets over the last twelve months. Indicative prime capital values for assets in the North West and South East have increased around 10.5 percent for the year to June 2015. Key Market Indicators – June 2015
South Eastern Prime Secondary
Low High Low High
Rental – Net Effective ($/sq m) 70 90 55 65
Yield (% Net Face Rental) 6.50 7.75 8.25 9.00
IRR (%) 8.25 9.00 9.00 9.50
Outgoings – total ($/sq m) 11 15 9 13
Capital Values ($/sq m) 1,100 1,500 700 900
North & West Prime Secondary
Low High Low High
Rental – Net Effective ($/sq m) 67 80 50 60
Yield (% Net Face Rental) 6.50 7.75 8.25 9.00
IRR (%) 8.25 9.00 9.00 9.50
Outgoings – total ($/sq m) 10 15 8 15
Capital Values ($/sq m) 860 1,250 550 750
City Fringe Prime Secondary
Low High Low High
Rental – Net Effective ($/sq m) 90 150 65 90
Yield (% Net Face Rental) 6.50 7.75 8.25 9.00
IRR (%) 8.25 9.00 9.00 9.50
Outgoings – total ($/sq m) 25 38 25 38
Capital Values ($/sq m) 1,250 2,500 900 1,200
Source: Savills Research
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Outlook Melbourne is home to a large and competitive industrial property market. The market contains a wide range of participants from end-to-end property solutions companies, investors and developers to owner occupiers and tenants. The outlook for business investment remains strong and the outlook for manufacturing and exports has recently improved given the depreciating value of the Australian dollar against other major currencies. Anecdotally, it is the locally produced goods likely to fill sheds in order to satisfy the improving domestic demand for domestic product given comparatively cheaper prices to imported goods. Strong demand for food manufacturing in particular has been reflected in growth in the hospitality retail categories of seasonally adjusted retail trade figures. The industrial sector has also benefited from structural issues in the retail sector, provided by the new business model strategy of “Clicks and Bricks” (online retailing). Anecdotally, growth in online shopping is being driven locally, both by purely internet based sellers and to a smaller extent, existing traditional retailers. Warehouse space is currently being occupied by goods for sale at bricks and mortar locations. But at the periphery there is a very large business growing in taking goods from warehouses direct to people's houses. Over the next 10 years it is probable to go in leaps and bounds. It is expected that the traditional retailers will compete by setting up their version of Clicks and Bricks, reducing the number of retail outlets and going into warehouses. Traditional domestic retailers would be expected to increase their industrial exposure as the domestic market becomes more competitive given the recent reduction in the value of the Australian dollar to the US dollar in particular. The global credit crisis did impact the Melbourne industrial property market. Developers experienced difficulty accessing appropriate funding for new developments and, to a lesser extent, refurbishments effectively choking supply. A gap emerged between vendor and buyer expectations resulting in a “standoff” in the sales market. Savills believes these factors have abated and the market has returned to its fundamentally strong position. Activity was solid throughout 2011 but soft market conditions remained over 2012 and 2013 as the global financial markets remained volatile with the domestic economy soft and the currency generally strong. A lack of consumer and business confidence has frustrated any real economic recovery although current levels of leasing and investment would suggest that recovery is underway. We expected 2014 to provide an improvement in activity as higher population growth starts to impact favourably on domestic economic conditions. Whilst the occupational side of the industrial market is coming from a subdued base, we believe there to be a start in the recovery, reflected by the improving leasing transaction scenario. We also expect financial markets to become more stable adding to an improvement in industrial conditions. Private Investors have clearly been attracted to the comparatively high investment yields, the simple investment parameters of industrial – single tenant, simple building, long lease, low capital expenditure requirements. The weight of money from institutional investors, and now foreign investors for prime industrial assets and the resultant tightening of yields is likely to weaken demand from a private investor. This however, may yet give rise to demand opportunistic demand in the secondary grade industrial market. Higher levels of market activity at the sub $20 million level suggest that this is where privates are focussed to reveal opportunities and yield. The low interest rate environment should also ensure a proportion of owner occupier demand at the lower end of the market. 2015 has brought with it continued expectation of a low interest rate environment and the proportion of owner occupiers in the market should increase. The South East continues to record significant owner occupier activity at 19 percent. The Melbourne industrial property market is well placed to compete for occupiers of industrial property both regionally and locally as it has not only an abundance of developable land at extremely affordable and competitive terms, it also has a large workforce and world class infrastructure. Substantial investment in infrastructure is ongoing. Whilst the outlook for demand is positive, the large supply of industrial land remains a pricing constraint with more unzoned land also in reserve. This is expected to contain growth in pre-commitment rents as a function of growing tenant demand. Nevertheless, there are locations in Melbourne where land availability is tight, especially central and inner Melbourne. This has facilitated higher land rates in the last twelve months in some locations. Planning’s expanded Capital City by Ministerial Amendment has further complicating land pricing, rezoning land previously zoned for industrial use within Fishermans Bend in Port Melbourne, an established industrial location. Savills expects key industrial market parameters to improve through the second half of 2015. With a perception that business confidence is likely to return to the general economy, so too should there be further increases in transaction activity, the start of which we have already witnessed. With some weakness continuing in the occupancy side of secondary asset market however, investment activity is expected to remain primarily for the high quality or prime assets. Investment transaction activity will be limited somewhat as the precommitted strong covenants being brought to the market are in reduced numbers in the current environment. That being said, the trend of assets being brought to the market as portfolios is likely to continue as vendors look to take advantage of the robust investment activity.
Savills Research | Melbourne Industrial July 2015
This information is general information only and is subject to change without notice. No representations or warranties of any nature whatsoever are given, intended or implied. Savills will not be liable for any omissions or errors. Savills will not be liable, including for negligence, for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential losses or damages arising out of our in any way connected with use of any of this information. This information does not form part of or constitute an offer or contract. You should rely on your own enquiries about the accuracy of any information or materials. All images are only for illustrative purposes. This information must not be copied, reproduced or distributed without the prior written consent of Savills.
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