DELIVERING THE NEXT ECONOMYIN METRO ATLANTA

Atlanta Regional Commission - Atlanta, Georgia / October 12, 2012Metropolitan Policy Programat BROOKINGS

@bruce_katz

Logistics Hub Fortune 500 Firms

World Class Universities

Arts & Culture

Talented & Diverse WorkforceLivable Centers

A vision for the next American economy

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@bruce_katz

2009

Global GDP

19.9%US

21.0%BIC Countries

Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2010

2015

Global GDP

26.5%BIC Countries

17.9%US

Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2010

Global Metro Population

2009

50%

Global Metro Population

2030

60%

Source: UN Department of Economic-Social Affairs, World Urbanization Prospects, 2009

Economic Performance2010-2011

Highest Performing MetrosLowest Performing Metros

Source: Brookings, Global MetroMonitor, January 2012

Exports Share of GDP2010

13%

United States

29% 22%

15%

30%

Japan

China Canada India

European Union

15%

Source: Brookings analysis of WTO and EIU data, 2011

Transport Networks are Clogged and Congested

Can we get back into the export game?

billionUS manufactured exports 2010

$944

Japan

$680$944

United States GermanyFrance

$409

China

$1477

$1091

Top Manufacturing Exporting Countries2010, Billions

Source: World Trade Organization, 2011

$358

ServiceImports

ServiceExports

$518

US Service TradeBillions, 2010

$160 billiontrade surplus

Source: World Trade Organization, 2011 (Data reflect Commercial Services)

Can the U.S. play in thelow carbon revolution?

Sources: Brookings-Battelle Clean Economy Database (2011)

2.7 millionclean economy jobs

1.4 millionbiosciences jobs

4.8 millionIT jobs

2.4 millionfossil fuel jobs

2.7 millionclean economy jobs

Sources: Brookings-Battelle Clean Economy Database (2011), Brookings Analysis of Battelle, BLS, Moody’s Analytics data

Source: EOP “A Framework for Revitalizing American Manufacturing” (2009)Brookings “Accelerating Advanced Manufacturing with New Research Centers” (2011)

90%manufacturing share of patents

68%manufacturing share of R&D

35%manufacturingshare of engineers

Can the U.S. be anInnovation Nation?

What do soaring Chinese wages mean

for global manufacturing?

May 10, 2012

China is the world’s largest manufacturing

power. Its output of televisions,

smartphones, steel pipes and other things

you can drop on your foot surpassed

America’s in 2010. China now accounts for a

fifth of global manufacturing. Its factories

have made so much, so cheaply that they

have curbed inflation in many of its trading

partners. But the era of cheap China may be

drawing to a close.

The End of Cheap

ChinaUS Names China On Intellectual-Property Watchlist

April 30, 2012

China's insufficient protection of intellectual property rights remains a top priority for U.S. trade policy, given the "troubling" direction of recent government measures aimed at supporting domestic innovation, the U.S. Trade Representative's office said Monday.

The coming US boom and howshale gas will fuel itApril 23, 2012

Ten years from today, the CEA and Federal Reserve chairman will again celebrate a decade of unexpected strong growth. This time the credit will go to countrywide gains from the very low energy prices found only in the US. Low-cost energy will have spawned an export surge in all sorts of goods, from chemicals to tyres.

Quake Disrupts Key Supply ChainsApril 30, 2012

The earthquake that struck northeast Japan Friday forced shutdowns across a broad spectrum of the country's industries, but the bigger impact for companies could come in the weeks ahead as the disruptions make their way through the global supply chain.The 8.9-magnitude earth quake, one of the largest on record, has crippled activity for now in a country that is a

38%manufacturing share of economic growth2009 Q3 - 2011 Q4

Source: Brookings analysis of Moody’s Economy.com data

11%wage premiumin exporting firms

Source: Istrate, Rothwell & Katz, Export Nation (2010)

Greater likelihood of health and retirement benefits in export-intense industries

Source: US Census Bureau, 2010 American Community Survey

Hispanics

19%

African Americans

Non-Hispanic Whites

Asians

25%39%

56%

Educational AttainmentAssociate’s Degree or Higher

United States

36%

Source: US Census Bureau, 2010 American Community Survey

Hispanics

19%

African Americans

25%

Educational AttainmentAssociate’s Degree or Higher

The next economy will be largely metropolitan

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@bruce_katz

GeorgiaAtlanta, Augusta, Chattanooga

Population GDP

61% 66%

GeorgiaAtlanta, Augusta, Chattanooga

Population GDP

Albany, Athens, Brunswick, Columbus, Dalton, Gainesville, Hinesville, Macon, Rome, Savannah, Valdosta, Warner Robins

82% 87%

Service Exports

75%63%

Manufacturing Exports

Population

66%

Top 100 Metro ExportsShare of U.S. Totals

Source: Brookings, ExportNation 2012

Top 100 Metro Exports

Chemical Products

68% 76%

Business/Professional

Services

Computer/Electronic Products

78%

Population

66%

Share of U.S. Totals

Source: Brookings, ExportNation 2012

Top 100 Metro Trade Logistics

U.S. Air Cargo Weight

82% 88%

Foreign Waterborne

Cargo Weight

Airline Boardings

92%

Population

66%

Share of U.S. Totals

Source: Brookings analysis of US Census Bureau, FAA, and PIERS data (2009)

Solar PV Energy

78% 80%

Wind Energy

Renewable Energy

Services

83%

Population

66%

Top 100 Metro Clean Economy Employment

Green Architecture & Construction

Services

90%

Source: Brookings, “Sizing the Clean Economy” (2011)

Share of U.S. Totals

College Degrees

Graduate Degrees

PatentsPopulation NIH/NSF Funding

Venture Capital Funding

74% 75% 78%66%

Top 100 Metro Innovative Assets

82%

Share of U.S. Totals

94%

Source: Brookings analysis of US Census Bureau, BLS, BEA, NIH and NSF data

Aerial imagery: © DigitalGlobe, GeoEye, Sanborn, USGS, USDA FSA

$20.0 B

Top 100Metros

AtlantaMetro

Export Intensity

9.8%8.0%

Export VolumeGoods & Services Exports

47.2%goods share of exports

Atlanta, GA Metro Export Dashboard

151,700Export Jobs

52.8%services share

of exports

Top Services SectorsTop Services Sectors

Travel & Tourism 18.9%

Business Services 12.1%

Royalties 6.8%

Top Manufacturing SectorsTop Manufacturing Sectors

Chemicals 7.9%

Transportation Equipment 6.3%

Food 6.2%

Source: Brookings, ExportNation 2012

Atlanta, GA Metro Clean Economy Dashboard

Source: Brookings, Sizing the Clean Economy 2011

2.0% 1.9%2.1%

1.9%

Clean Employment Intensity

Top Sectors By Industry Specialization LQ

Smart Grid 9.3

Water Efficient Products 4.2

Appliances 4.0 U.S. Top 100Metros Atlanta MetroGeorgia

43,060Clean Jobs

142,416

US AtlantaMetro

ManufacturingIntensity

8.5%6.2%

Manufacturing JobsTop Manufacturing Sectors

Atlanta, GA Metro Manufacturing Dashboard

Food 16.5%Plastics & Rubber 8.1%Computers & Electronics 7.5%Fabricated Metal Products 6.8%Printing & Support Activities 6.4%

US AtlantaMetro

Manufacturing Growth

2010 Q1 - 2011 Q4

2.7%

4.3%

Source: Brookings, Locating American Manufacturing 2012

Educational AttainmentAssociate’s Degree or Higher

Atlanta, GA Metro Opportunity Dashboard

Source: Brookings, State of Metropolitan America (2011) and The Geography of Immigrant Skills (2011)

TextAtlantaMetroTotal

Non-HispanicWhite

AfricanAmerican

Asian Hispanic

41.1%

56.7%

46.3%

34.6%

20.5%

Immigrant CompositionBy Skill Level (Age 25+)

High Skilled

LowSkilled

Middle Skilled

26.6%

41.6%

31.8%

Atlanta, GA Metro Opportunity Dashboard

Source: Brookings, Missed Opportunity: Transit and Jobs in Metropolitan America (2011)

38%

Share of Working-Age Residents with Transit Coverage

Transit Accessibility

AtlantaMetro

69%Top 100 Metro

Average

22%

Share of all Jobs Reachable via public transit in 90 minutes

AtlantaMetro

30%Top 100 Metro

Average

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3 Metropolitan areas are driving innovation

METROINNOVATION

@bruce_katz

Innovate Locally

Market AssessmentTarget Sectors

8% 9%12%

Economic Profile15%

12%

13%

9%

Establish Goals & Strategies

Boost SME exportsIncrease global fluency

Double exports Support key sectors

Governments

Philanthropy

Firms

Universities

Collaborate to CompeteLos Angeles

Seattle

Minneapols-Saint Paul

Portland

Northeast Ohio

Syracuse

Metropolitan Business Planning

Northeast Ohio

Metropolitan Business Planning Key manufacturing growth sectors: fuel cells, electric vehicles, organic electronics

Retool manufacturing and retrain industrial workers

Case WesternReserve

The Universityof Akron

John GlennResearch Center

Atlanta

Metropolitan Business Planning

Atlanta MetropolitanBusiness Plan

Building on Logistics Base

InnovationDistrictIn no va tion• ••

Dis trict•

A 21st Century economy shaping/place-making strategy that connects and clusters innovation-generating anchor institutions and companies with entrepreneurial firms, infrastructure, housing, retail, and amenities.

19th Century Industrial Districts 20th Century Science Parks

Innovation Districts

EmoryUniversity

GeorgiaTech

ClarkAtlanta

University

PhillipsArena

CNN CenterGeorgia

Dome

Turner Field

Centennial Olympic

Park

MorehouseCollege

City Hall

GeorgiaCapitol

GeorgiaState

Coca-Cola

Company

AtlantaFederalReserve

FoxTheatre

WoodruffArts

Center

Museumof Design

Atlanta

HighMuseum

of ArtAtlanta

SymphonyOrchestra

SavannahCollege of

Art & Design

Innovate Locally Network Globally

New York

Sao Paulo

Toronto

Lagos

Sydney

Tokyo

Shanghai

London

ParisFrankfurt

Detroit

Monterrey

Bogota

Johannesburg

Cologne

ChennaiHanoi

Chongqing

Los Angeles

Buenos Aires Durbin

Dubai

Singapore

Seoul

Tianjin

HamburgRotterdam

Atlanta’s Top Export Destinations2010 Volume

Atlanta’s Top Air Travel Destinations2011 Total Passengers

Canada

Mexico

Japan

United Kingdom

China

$3.07 B

$1.68 B

$1.43 B

$1.36 B

$1.03 B

Seoul

London

Toronto

Cancun

Montego Bay

Source: Brookings, Export Nation II (2012) Brookings analysis of all international passenger traffic between Atlanta and other global metros (2012)

188,207

185,587

177,215

165,260

97,117

Target industries: aerospace, computer and electronic products, pharmaceuticals, professional services, film and television

University ofSouthern California

University of California Los Angeles

City ofLos Angeles

Grow Los Angeles metropolitan exports

Los Angeles Regional Export Council

Los Angeles

Metropolitan Business Planning

Innovate Locally Network Globally Advocate Nationally

Council of Economic Advisors Council on Environmental Quality National Security Council

Office of Administration Office of Management & Budget Office of Nat’l Drug Control Policy

Office of Policy Development Office of Science & Technology Policy Office of the US Trade Representative

Department of Agriculture Department of Commerce Department of Defense Department of Education Department of Energy

Department of Health & Human Services Department of Homeland Security Department of Housing & Urban

Development Department of the Interior Department of Justice

Department of Labor Department of State Department of Transportation Department of Treasury Department of Veterans Affairs

African Development Foundation

Central Intelligence Agency

Commodity Futures Trading Commission

Consumer Product Safety Commission

Corporation for National and

Community ServiceDefense Nuclear

Facilities Safety BoardEnvironmental

Protection AgencyEqual Employment

Opportunity Commission

Export-Import Bank of the United States

Farm Credit Administration

Federal Communications

CommissionFederal Deposit

Insurance CorporationFederal Election

CommissionFederal Housing Finance Board

Federal Labor Relations Authority

Federal Maritime Commission

Federal Mediation and Conciliation Service

Federal Mine Safety & Health Review Commission

Federal Reserve System

Federal Retirement Thrift Investment

BoardFederal Trade Commission

General Services Administration

Inter-American Foundation

Merit Systems Protection Board

National Aeronautics and Space

Administration

National Archives and Records

AdministrationNational Capital

Planning Commission

National Credit Union Administration

National Foundation on the Arts and

HumanitiesNational Labor

Relations BoardNational Mediation

BoardNational Railroad

Passenger Corporation (AMTRAK)

National Science Foundation

National Transportation Safety

BoardNuclear Regulatory

CommissionOccupational Safety &

Health Review Commission

Office of Government Ethics

Office of Personnel Management

Office of Special Council

Overseas Private Investment Corporation

Peace Corps Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation

Postal Rate Commission

Railroad Retirement Board

Securities and Exchange Commission

Selective Service System

Small Business Administration

Social Security Administration

Tennessee Valley Authority

Trade & Development Agency

US Agency for International Development

US Commission on Civil Rights

US International Trade Commission US Postal Service

EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT

CABINET AGENCIES

INDEPENDENT ESTABLISHMENTS AND GOVERNMENT CORPORATIONS

Council of Economic Advisors Council on Environmental Quality National Security Council

Office of Administration Office of Management & Budget Office of Nat’l Drug Control Policy

Office of Policy Development Office of Science & Technology Policy Office of the US Trade Representative

Department of Agriculture Department of Commerce Department of Defense Department of Education Department of Energy

Department of Health & Human Services Department of Homeland Security Department of Housing & Urban

Development Department of the Interior Department of Justice

Department of Labor Department of State Department of Transportation Department of Treasury Department of Veterans Affairs

African Development Foundation

Central Intelligence Agency

Commodity Futures Trading Commission

Consumer Product Safety Commission

Corporation for National and

Community ServiceDefense Nuclear

Facilities Safety BoardEnvironmental

Protection AgencyEqual Employment

Opportunity Commission

Export-Import Bank of the United States

Farm Credit Administration

Federal Communications

CommissionFederal Deposit

Insurance CorporationFederal Election

CommissionFederal Housing Finance Board

Federal Labor Relations Authority

Federal Maritime Commission

Federal Mediation and Conciliation Service

Federal Mine Safety & Health Review Commission

Federal Reserve System

Federal Retirement Thrift Investment

BoardFederal Trade Commission

General Services Administration

Inter-American Foundation

Merit Systems Protection Board

National Aeronautics and Space

Administration

National Archives and Records

AdministrationNational Capital

Planning Commission

National Credit Union Administration

National Foundation on the Arts and

HumanitiesNational Labor

Relations BoardNational Mediation

BoardNational Railroad

Passenger Corporation (AMTRAK)

National Science Foundation

National Transportation Safety

BoardNuclear Regulatory

CommissionOccupational Safety &

Health Review Commission

Office of Government Ethics

Office of Personnel Management

Office of Special Council

Overseas Private Investment Corporation

Peace Corps Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation

Postal Rate Commission

Railroad Retirement Board

Securities and Exchange Commission

Selective Service System

Small Business Administration

Social Security Administration

Tennessee Valley Authority

Trade & Development Agency

US Agency for International Development

US Commission on Civil Rights

US International Trade Commission US Postal Service

EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT

CABINET AGENCIES

INDEPENDENT ESTABLISHMENTS AND GOVERNMENT CORPORATIONS

Office of the US Trade Representative

Export-Import Bank of the United States

Overseas Private Investment Corporation

Department of Commerce

Small Business Administration

Export-Import Bank of the United States

Department of CommerceOverseas Private

InvestmentCorporation

Office of the US Trade Representative

Small Business Administration

International Trade AdministrationUS Census

National Technical Information ServiceSelect USA

Bureau of Industry & SecurityNational Institute of Standards & Technology

Minority Business Development Agency

INTEGRATED METROPOLITAN EXPORT PROMOTION

Local GovernmentsPhilanthropy

FirmsUniversities

State GovernmentFederal Government

Simpson-Bowles Plan2010

$4 trillionin proposed deficit reduction

through 2020

Reduce national debt to

40%of U.S. GDP by 2035

DELIVERING THE NEXT ECONOMYIN METRO ATLANTA

Atlanta Regional Commission - Atlanta, Georgia / October 12, 2012Metropolitan Policy Programat BROOKINGS

@bruce_katz