Group
JULY 2019
BWR DRISHTIKONE
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July 2019 1
Budget Proposals: A Booster Shot for the Economy July 2019
Liquidity, CAD and Macroeconomic Stability
India managed to maintain macroeconomic stability by containing inflation within 4% and current
account deficit (CAD) to GDP ratio at 2.1% during 2018-19. However, due to slowdown in the
domestic economy on account of lower farm output witnessed in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2018-
19, the full year GDP growth rate was revised downwards to 6.8% compared to 7.2% reported
in the previous year. Along with agriculture, manufacturing sector also witnessed deceleration in
growth as evident from weak IIP numbers. Manufacturing sector was affected by the slowdown
in the auto sector as well, where the production growth for all categories apart from commercial
vehicles declined. The constant slowdown in auto sales is expected to continue in 2019-20 as
well, given the credit constraints faced by auto industries on account of ongoing liquidity crisis of
NBFCs in addition to rise in the cost of vehicle ownership due to change in insurance norms.
Government’s push towards electric vehicles may alter the household preferences towards
conventional fuel vehicles.
The Economic Survey and the Union Budget both exude confidence in the economy by propelling
growth estimates to 8% per year to achieve the aspirational goal of a USD 5 trillion economy.
Economic survey considers the challenge of creating of a virtuous cycle of savings, investments,
job creation and exports while meeting Budget’s commitment to fiscal consolidation to restrict
the fiscal deficit at 3.3% for 2019-20.
Debt market indicators suggest improved sentiments reflecting positive economic and market
scenario. Global cues like crude oil prices, US treasury yields direct the market. Bond markets
have witnessed a sharp rally of late assisted by a steady rupee followed by fall in crude prices
and RBI led MPC’s recent rate cut with accommodative stance. This comes on the back of the
favourable election outcome and a sharp drop in US treasury yields which have further buoyed
gilts. The 10-year benchmark yield traded between 6.98-7.22% during the month of June as
against 7.20-7.60% during the May 2019. Looking ahead, bond markets will continue to mirror
the rupee and oil trajectory, the fiscal target & borrowing plan and the US Federal Reserve’s
policy regime.
Union Budget which adhered to fiscal consolidation roadmap buoyed the bond market
sentiments. The bond yields fell around 18 basis points in a single day following the FM
Sitharaman’s Budget speech. Also, the market cheered the government’s decision to raise part
of its gross borrowing from the overseas market, which could reduce supply-side pressures in
the domestic market. The yield on the benchmark 10-year bond fell to as low as 6.56% during
the day before ending at 6.69%.
IN THIS ISSUE…
Macro Indicators
Domestic GDP Growth and Current Account Deficit
Inflation and Bank Credit Trade and INR USD
Exchange Rate Forex Reserves and Import
Cover Exchange Rate and Crude Oil
Prices
Sectoral Indicators
Automobiles Telecom Power Steel Cement Coal Airlines
Debt Market Indicators
G-sec Yields with Corporate Bond Yields, Bank MCLR
G-sec Yields with Crude Oil Prices
Contacts Rajat Bahl Chief Analytical Officer +91 22 67456634 [email protected] Anita Shetty Research Editor +91 22 67456633 [email protected]
Ria Matwani Research Editor +91 22 67456675 [email protected]
Praveen Pardeshi Research Analyst +91 22 67456681 [email protected]
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July 2019 2
MACRO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Domestic GDP Growth and Current Account Deficit
The slowdown in the domestic economy on account of lower farm output witnessed in the fourth
quarter (Q4) of 2018-19, the full year GDP growth rate revised downwards to 6.8% compared to
7.2% reported in the previous year. On the other hand, the current account deficit (CAD) as a
percentage to GDP narrowed down to 0.7% in Q4, while for the full fiscal 2018-19, CAD increased
2.1% from 1.8% reported in the previous year.
Source: MOSPI, IMF, RBI, BWR Research
Inflation, IIP and Bank Credit
CPI inflation moderated in May and remained within the targeted level of RBI at 4% (+/-2%). The
reduction in repo rate thrice in 2019 did not revive the credit growth much due to poor transition
of rate cut. In the meantime, IIP picked up in April and recorded 3.4% growth in output, suggesting
revival in production largely due to improving investment scenario.
Source: MOSPI, RBI, BWR Research
View
Significant moderation in CPI
inflation during 2018-19 which
remained within the targeted
level of RBI at 4%, helped the
MPC to change its stance. The
decline in crude oil prices
expected to keep the inflation
benign in 2019-20 as well. The
credit growth is expected to pick-
up on the back of monetary
easing by MPC.
View
After a deceleration in the growth
momentum in 2018-19 India’s
(GDP) growth is expected to
improve in 2019-20 reflecting a
recovery in investment and
consumption. Huge political
mandate for the government and
accommodative stance of
monetary policy both augur well
for the initiation of structural
reforms.
-3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.05.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19
Quarterly Growth in GDP and CAD as a ratio of GDP (%)
GDP CAD
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
Ap
r-18
Ma
y-1
8
Jun
-18
Jul-1
8
Au
g-1
8
Se
p-1
8
Oct-
18
Nov-1
8
Dec-1
8
Jan
-19
Fe
b-1
9
Ma
r-19
Ap
r-19
Ma
y-1
9
CPI Inflation, IIP and Bank Credit (y-o-y changes in %)
CPI Inflation Bank Credit IIP
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July 2019 3
Trade and INR USD Exchange Rate
After showing significant volatility, rupee appreciated marginally since March 2019. Exports
showed improvement in March 2019, but dropped in the previous month. Imports grew by 3.3%
in May whereas, exports increased by 3.7%, thus helping the trade balance to narrow.
Source: Ministry of Commerce, RBI, BWR Research
Forex Reserves and Import Cover
India's foreign exchange reserve cover for imports has fallen to 9.3 months in May from 10.1
months in April. Rising imports are the major reason, however accumulation of enough forex
reserves helped to arrest this reduction.
Source: Ministry of Commerce, MOSPI, BWR Research
View
With a stable rupee, RBI has
reduced its interventions in the
forex market. This would support
foreign currency assets to
remain at higher levels.
View
After crossing Rs 71 per USD,
responding to both global and
domestic factors the rupee
remained stable since March
2019. A lower trade deficit at
US$ 35.2 billion as compared
with US$ 41.6 billion a year ago
helped the CAD to narrow down.
67.8
68.769.5
72.2
73.6
71.9
70.7 70.771.2
69.5 69.4 69.8 69.4
63.0
65.0
67.0
69.0
71.0
73.0
75.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
Jun
-18
Jul-1
8
Au
g-1
8
Se
p-1
8
Oct-
18
Nov-1
8
Dec-1
8
Jan
-19
Fe
b-1
9
Ma
r-19
Ap
r-19
Ma
y-1
9
Jun
-19
Growth in Exports, Imports and Rupee-Dollar Exchange rate
Rs/$ (RHS) Exports (y-o-y in %) Imports (y-o-y in %)
10.5
9.49.1 9.1
8.8
9.4
8.89.0
9.39.7
11.0
9.5
10.1
9.3
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
375,000
380,000
385,000
390,000
395,000
400,000
405,000
410,000
415,000
420,000
425,000
Forex Reserves and Import Cover in Months
Foreign exchange reserves (USD mn) Import Cover in months
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July 2019 4
Fluctuation in Crude oil Prices and its Impact on INR/USD
Rupee remained stable supported by falling crude oil prices. Slowing signs of US demand kept
the oil prices under check with signs of a recovery in oil exports from Venezuela in June and
growth in Argentinian output in May.
Source: RBI, U.S Energy Information Administration, BWR Research
View
Easing crude oil prices helped the rupee to appreciate against US dollar. If the trend continues this would help the economy to manage fiscal situation well.
60.0
62.0
64.0
66.0
68.0
70.0
72.0
74.0
76.0
50.0
55.0
60.0
65.0
70.0
75.0
80.0
85.0
Rupee-D
olla
r E
xchange R
ate
Cru
de O
il P
rices in
$ B
arr
el
Crude oil Prices and Rs/$
Crude Oil Rs/$
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July 2019 5
SECTORAL INDICATORS
Automobiles
Overall automobile sales fell by 8.6% in May 2019 driven by weak sales in passenger vehicles
segment. High cost of ownership due to increased insurance cost has hampered the passenger
vehicles and two-wheeler sales. Revised axle norms and financing issues due to NBFC crisis
have hit the commercial vehicle sales.
Source: CMIE, BWR Research
IIP and Automobiles
Slowdown in auto production is in line with overall decline in IIP growth. Slowdown in
manufacturing activity is a proxy for falling consumer demand which is evident in the flat growth
in IIP.
Source: MOSPI, CMIE, BWR Research
1.5
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.5
2.7
2.9
3.1
3.3
3.5
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
Apr ,2018
May ,2018
Jun ,2018
Jul ,2018
Aug ,2018
Sep ,2018
Oct ,2018
Nov ,2018
Dec ,2018
Jan ,2019
Feb ,2019
Mar ,2019
Apr ,2019
May ,2019
Auto Production vs IIP
IIP (LHS) Auto production (million units)
BWR Views
Vehicle sales are expected to remain under pressure till H1 FY20, post which commercial vehicles might see an uptick in purchases by fleet owners before the BS-VI norms kick in from FY21.
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Ap
r 201
8
Ma
y 2
018
Jun
2018
Jul 2018
Au
g 2
018
Se
p 2
018
Oct 201
8
Nov 2
018
Dec 2
018
Jan
2019
Fe
b 2
019
Ma
r 20
19
Ap
r 201
9
Ma
y 2
019
Domestic Auto Sales (Growth y-o-y)
Passenger Vehicles Commercial Vehicles Two & Three Wheelers
BWR Views
Slowdown in vehicle sales has resulted in huge inventory build-up. Therefore, production cut down is expected in the coming months to clear the inventory as and when the demand picks up.
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July 2019 6
Telecom
Consolidation of the market continues with Jio increasing its market share and driving the overall
subscriber additions in the sector. As on April 2019, the market share of Vodafone-Idea was
33.8% followed by Bharti Airtel at 27.7% and Reliance Jio at 27.1%.
However, Reliance Jio has been substantially adding new subscribers, while subscriber additions
for Airtel has been very slow and in contrast Vodafone-Idea has been losing subscribers. Players
other than the top 4 are now completely out of the market.
Source: TRAI, BWR Research
Power
Power generation in hydro show a healthy growth this year compared to thermal in terms of
conventional energy sources. Thermal power producers has been facing challenges in terms of
coal availability. On the other hand, renewable sources continue to show strong growth.
Source: Central Electricity Authority, BWR Research
BWR Views
Competitive intensity is expected to ease as pricing by players are now on the same lines. Reliance Jio is expected to increase its market share going forward.
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Apr ,2018
May ,2018
Jun ,2018
Jul ,2018
Aug ,2018
Sep ,2018
Oct ,2018
Nov ,2018
Dec ,2018
Jan ,2019
Feb ,2019
Mar ,2019
Apr ,2019
Wireless Telecom subscribers (Growth y-o-y)
Bharti Airtel Vodafone Idea Reliance Jio BSNL Others
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
May ,2018
Jun ,2018
Jul ,2018
Aug ,2018
Sep ,2018
Oct ,2018
Nov ,2018
Dec ,2018
Jan ,2019
Feb ,2019
Mar ,2019
Apr ,2019
May ,2019
Electricity Generation (Growth y-o-y)
Thermal Nuclear Hydro Renewables
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July 2019 7
India's power supply position improved in May 2019, but country is still not a power-surplus
nation. The deficit is primarily due to discoms not being able to buy power on account of its
mounting losses and huge debt burden.
Source: CEA, BWR Research
Steel
Steel prices witnessed a decline after October 2018, owing to subdued industrial activity in the
country visible in declining infrastructure & construction activity and lower automobile sales.
However, from March 2019, domestic steel prices started to rise owing to increased raw material
prices, particularly iron ore.
Source: CMIE, BWR Research
BWR Views
Steel prices are expected to remain firm in the next 1-2 months as demand revival will be slow owing to overall economic slowdown and lack of liquidity in the market.
BWR Views
Power sector may continue to witness stress due to stalled projects.
-1.5%
0.0%
-0.2%
-1.1%
-4.6%
-0.7%-1.1%
0.0%
-0.1%
0.0%
-6.6%
-0.4%
-7.0%
-6.0%
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
Northern Western Southern Eastern North Eastern All India
Power Supply Position (Surplus/Deficit)
May 2018 May 2019
51,000
52,000
53,000
54,000
55,000
56,000
57,000
58,000
59,000
60,000
61,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Steel Production & Prices
Finished steel production (000 tonnes) Finished steel consumption (000 tonnes)
Finished steel prices (Rs per tonne) (RHS)
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July 2019 8
Cement
Cement prices have remained range bound in 2018-19. Despite demand remaining low and
input cost remaining stable, players increased the prices in March 2019.
Source: CMIE, BWR Research
Coal
Coal prices have been declining since July 2018, due to weak global growth and lower demand.
Also, record increase in coal production in China and its plans to open new mines put further
pressure on the price.
Source: CMIE, BWR Research
BWR Views
Cement prices are expected to firm up in expectations of government projects picking pace. The growth will be driven by Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana and multiple infrastructure projects such as metros, highways and irrigation projects.
BWR Views
International coal prices may continue to soften on the back of expected lower demand from markets like China and India.
280
290
300
310
320
330
340
350
360
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
Cement Production & Prices
Production (000 tonnes) Consumption (000 tonnes)
Average retail price (Rs per 50 kg) (RHS)
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Apr2018
May2018
Jun2018
Jul2018
Aug2018
Sep2018
Oct2018
Nov2018
Dec2018
Jan2019
Feb2019
Mar2019
Apr2019
May2019
International Coal Prices (USD per tonne)
Indonesia Australia South Africa
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July 2019 9
Airlines
Domestic air passengers grew by 3% y-o-y in May 2019. This is a revival in growth after a decline
in April 2019 and a slowdown since the start of the year. The growth in May 2019 was aided by
capacity additions and also due to other airlines redeploying grounded aircraft of Jet Airways.
Source: DGCA, BWR Research
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
Domestic Passengers Carried by Airlines
Domestic passengers (in lakhs) Growth (y-o-y)
BWR Views
Domestic passenger growth is expected to grow at a faster rate going forward aided by induction of new aircrafts and discounts offered by airlines in the off-peak period.
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July 2019 10
DEBT MARKET INDICATORS
Movements in Bond Yields
Bond yields (annualised) of Public Sector Units (PSUs), Corporates and Non-Banking Finance
Companies (NBFCs) maturing in 1-year, 3-year and 5-year with corresponding Government
Securities and Bank MCLR are provided below.
The yields of AAA rated corporate bonds maturing in 1-year have eased by 56-83 basis points
in the month of June compared to May due to better liquidity in the bond market amid infusions
by Reserve Bank of India on daily basis.
Source: FIMMDA, Brickwork Research Source: FIMMDA, Brickwork Research Source: FIMMDA, BWR Research
Similarly, the yields of AAA rated corporate bonds maturing in 3-year have eased by 56-75 basis
points in the month of June compared to previous month.
Source: FIMMDA, Brickwork Research Source: FIMMDA, BWR Research
View
Yields of shorter tenor corporate bond has eased due to moderation in crude oil prices amid further expectation of RBI’s easing monetary stimulus.
6.206.406.606.807.007.207.407.607.808.008.208.408.608.809.00
2-M
ay
6-M
ay
10-M
ay
14-M
ay
18-M
ay
22-M
ay
26-M
ay
30-M
ay
3-J
un
7-J
un
11-J
un
15-J
un
19-J
un
23-J
un
27-J
un
1-year AAA Corporate Bond yields vs Gsec yield, MCLR
PSU Corp NBFC
GSEC SBI MCLR HDFC MCLR
6.206.406.606.807.007.207.407.607.808.008.208.408.608.809.00
2-M
ay
6-M
ay
10-M
ay
14-M
ay
18-M
ay
22-M
ay
26-M
ay
30-M
ay
3-J
un
7-J
un
11-J
un
15-J
un
19-J
un
23-J
un
27-J
un
3-year AAA Corporate Bond yields vs Gsec yield, MCLR
PSU Corp NBFC
GSEC SBI MCLR HDFC MCLR
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July 2019 11
Monthly yield curve of AAA PSUs, NBFCs, Corporates and Gsec The bonds across sectors also shows improving investor sentiments owing to anticipation of
RBI’s further easing key policy rates amid sharp fall in crude oil prices.
Source: FIMMDA, Brickwork Research
Rolling maturity of Government Security maturing in 1 year along with similar trend reflected by
Corporate bonds of PSUs, NBFCs and Corporates has witnessed easing trend due to softening
of interest rates (RBI-MPC repo rate cuts) amid infusion of huge liquidity by Central Bank through
Open Market Operations (OMOs) and daily injections.
Source: FIMMDA, BWR Research
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
2-M
ay
6-M
ay
10-M
ay
14-M
ay
18-M
ay
22-M
ay
26-M
ay
30-M
ay
3-J
un
7-J
un
11-J
un
15-J
un
19-J
un
23-J
un
27-J
un
5-year AAA Corporate Bond yields vs Gsec yield
PSU Corp NBFC
GSEC SBI MCLR HDFC MCLR
6.20
6.60
7.00
7.40
7.80
8.20
8.60
9.00
9.40
1 year rolling monthly yield curve for AAA PSU, NBFC, Corporate and GSEC
PSU NBFC Corp GSEC
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July 2019 12
Lower Brent Crude Oil directs the Indian Government Securities The recent fall in Brent Crude oil prices has reflected in the easing of yields, thereby, boosting
positivity in the bond market.
The average crude oil prices saw a sharp fall in the month of June to USD 64.33/ barrel as against
previous month’s average of USD 71.32/barrel.
Source: U.S Energy Information Administration, BWR Research
View
Recent sharp fall in the crude oil prices amid drop in US treasury yields helped easing domestic yields. Global cues may continue to influence the Indian bond market.
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
6.60
6.80
7.00
7.20
7.40
7.60
7.80M
ay 0
2, 2019
Ma
y 0
6, 2019
Ma
y 0
8, 2019
Ma
y 1
3, 2019
Ma
y 1
5, 2019
Ma
y 1
7, 2019
Ma
y 2
1, 2019
Ma
y 2
3, 2019
Ma
y 2
8, 2019
Ma
y 3
0, 2019
Jun
03, 201
9
Jun
06, 201
9
Jun
10, 201
9
Jun
12, 201
9
Jun
14, 201
9
Jun
18, 201
9
Jun
20, 201
9
Jun
24, 201
9
Jun
26, 201
9
Jun
28, 201
9
Benchmark GSec and Crude Oil Prices
Crude Oil Prices GSEC
Group
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July 2019 13
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