WhenjeopardyisariskworthtakingHowtheOscarscanredefineourunderstandingofrisk
byStuartBarr,MBACandidate2016/17,JudgeBusinessSchool
2017 Cambridge - McKinsey Risk Prize
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Student Name: Stuart Barr
Email contact: [email protected]
Title of Submission:
When Jeopardy is a Risk Worth Taking:
How the Oscars can redefine our understanding of risk
I am a candidate for the degree:
______MBA___________________________________
After a 19-year career as a conductor and music producer, Stuart Barr is studying for an MBA Degree at the Judge Business School. Undertaking the unique Culture, Arts & Media Concentration, he is planning to transition into the management side of the music industry, with the ambition of running a major international arts or entertainments organisation. As a musical director at the intersection of classical and popular music, he has been guest conductor to many distinguished orchestras. He was Dame Shirley Bassey’s musical director from 2009-2015, including all her performances worldwide from the Oscars to the Queen’s Diamond Jubilee Concert. He also produced her farewell album, Hello Like Before with the Royal Philharmonic Orchestra at Abbey Road Studios for Sony. He is the present Chairman of the London Youth Choir, and a previous President of the British Voice Association.
2017 Cambridge - McKinsey Risk Prize
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Student Name: ______Stuart Barr
Email contact: [email protected]
Title of Submission: ____When Jeopardy is a Risk Worth Taking:
How the Oscars can redefine our understanding of risk
_________________________________________________________
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I am a candidate for the degree: ____MBA_____________________
Academic Institution/Department: _____Judge Business School
Declaration I confirm that this piece of work is my own and does not violate the University of Cambridge Judge Business School’s guidelines on Plagiarism. I agree that my submission will be available as an internal document for members of both Cambridge Judge Business School and McKinsey & Co’s Global Risk Practice. If my submission either wins or receives an honourable mention for the Risk Prize, then I agree that (a) I will be present at the award presentation ceremony 23 June 2017, (b) my submission can be made public on a Cambridge Judge Business School and/or McKinsey & Co websites. This submission on risk management does not exceed 10 pages.
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2
WhenjeopardyisariskworthtakingHowtheOscarscanredefineourunderstandingofrisk
byStuartBarr,MBACandidate2016/17,JudgeBusinessSchool
“Everyonepre-recordsandthenlip-synchswhenperformingattheOscars.Everyone.Tooriskyotherwise…”saidMichaelSeligman,producerofthe85thAcademyAwards.Iretorted“Wealwaysperformlive.DameShirleyBasseyneverlip-synchsperformances:shelivesandbreatheslivemusic.
Shewon’tdoitunlessweperformlive”.1
DameShirleyBasseyisoneofthemostindeliblevoicesinBritishpopularmusic
(BroadwayMusicWorld,2014),withher37studioalbumsmakingover135msales(BBC,
2017),makingherthebest-sellingBritishfemaleartisteofalltime.Asanindicationofjust
howcentralsheisto20thCenturyBritishpopularculture,shehastheuniquedistinctionof
havingoriginatedmoreJamesBondfilmtitlesongsthananyotherartiste(Goldfinger,DiamondsAreForeverandMoonraker).
Itwasthusappropriatethatthe2013AcademyAwards(the“Oscars”)shouldinvite
Basseytoperform“Goldfinger”attheclimaxoftheJamesBond50thAnniversarysequence.
Broadcastlivetoanaudienceofover40mviewers(Patten,2013),aperformanceatthe
Oscarscomeswithbigreward,butalsoimmenserisk:abadperformancecoulddenta
career,andtarnishtheimageoftheOscarsthemselves.Itisthusunderstandablethatthe
producerwouldwishtominimiseriskbytellingartistesandtheorchestratopre-recordand
lip-synch.However,Basseyisanold-schoolperformerwhorequiresthejeopardyoflive
performancetocreatehersearingintensity.WhowastheproduceroftheOscarstotell
someonewho’dperformedlivethousandsoftimesthathisriskasaproduceroutweighed
herneedforjeopardy?
Academicliteraturetreatsriskalmostexclusivelyasanegativeconcept,tobemitigated.
Thisessayassertsthatthisone-sidedorthodoxyleadstoanincompletepictureofrisk,and
seekstochartnewterritorybyinvestigatingitsupside,throughtheeyesofperformers
requiring“jeopardy”toperformattheirbest;andthebalanceneedingtobemadewith
traditionalrisk-mitigation.
IttakesasitscentralnarrativetheclashbetweenjeopardyandriskattheOscars.A
battleofbusinessriskagainstartisticneed.ThetoughHollywoodmogulagainsttheDiva
fromTigerBay,bothintheirseventhdecadeofshowbusiness.Whowouldwin?
1TheauthorwasMusicalDirectortoDameShirleyBasseyfrom2009-2015,andconducted
her2013Oscarsperformance.Thisessayisanethnographicstudyoftheriskcultureatthe
Oscars,asseenthroughtheeyesoftheconductor.
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TheOscarsculture–andmimingTheannualawardsexisttohonourthehighestcinematicachievementin24categories,
rangingfromBestPicturethroughBestActor/Actressthroughtotechnicalcategoriessuch
asBestMakeupandHairstyling.PerfectionisthustheessenceoftheOscars.Assuch,it
wouldbeofnosurprisethat“perfection”duringtheceremonyitselfwouldbeexpected.
Theverynatureofcinemaistocreatetheillusionofaheightenedrealityoutofaseriesof
cut-togetherpiecesofacting,frequentlyre-voicedbytheactorslater:themagicofcinema.
WiththenotableexceptionofLesMisérables,wheretheactorssingingwasrecordedonset,Hollywoodmusicalsarealwaysoverdubbed.InthegoldenageofHollywood,blockbusters
evenemployed“ghostsingers”suchasMarniNixontobethescreenvoiceofAudrey
Hepburn,SophiaLoren,NatalieWoodandevensomeofMarilynMonroe(Nixon&Cole,
2006).TheoriginalcastrecordingsofTheKingandI,MyFairLadyandWestSideStoryevengavestarcredittotheactor,despitetheirvoiceneverappearingonthealbum.Thus,
embeddedinthecultureofHollywood,technicalperfectionwasmoreimportantthan
authenticityofprocess.Audienceswereusedtothis,sowhywoulda“live”performanceat
theOscarsbeanydifferent?
Figure1DolbyTheatre,Hollywood,OscarsCeremony
TheceremonyTheceremonytakesplaceintheHollywood’s3,400seaterDolbyTheatrewithanaudience
madeupofawardnominees,andmembersoftheAcademyofMotionPictureArtsand
Sciences.The2013awardswerehostedbytheactorSethMacFarlane,whonotonlydidthe
continuity,butalsosangandperformedincomicsketches.Eachawardsequenceconsistsof
amontageofclipsfromeachnominatedfilm,theannouncementofthewinnerandtheir
acceptancespeech.Timeistightlycontrolled,andthehostscutoffspeechesthatgoover-
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time.Therearealsoseveralsequenceswhichpaytributetotheartofcinemaingeneral.In
2013,aswellasBasseyandtheBond50thanniversarysequence,therewerelive[sic]
performancesfromtheLesMisérablescast,Adele(Skyfall),BarbraStreisand(TheWayWeWere),JenniferHudson(Dreamgirls)andCatherineZetaJones(Chicago).ApartfromBassey,
allperformanceshadsomepre-recordedelementsinthem,orwerefullylip-synched.
Theorchestra WhilstanorchestraisanimportantpartoftheOscarsshowforbothceremonial
musicandaccompanyingperformances,itisnolongerintheDolbytheatrebutinCapitol
Studios:1mileaway,andconnectedbyaudioandvideolinks.Althoughtheprimarycause
ofthiswasdowntothespacelimitationsoftheDolbytheatre,italsoofferstheadvantage
thatperformerscaneasierpre-recordperformances.Iftheorchestrawereinthe“pit”,it
wouldbetoonoticeableforthemtomimealongtoarecording.Alternatively,themiming
singercouldpre-recordtheirvocalstobebroadcastoverthetopofliveaccompaniment,but
inthiscasetheorchestraneedtowearheadphoneswithaclick-trackintheirears(apre-
recordedclickintimewiththesinger’sperformance).
Theriskinvolvedinhavingtheorchestrainaseparatelocationisbothtechnicaland
artistic.Itreliesupondatalinksbetweenthelocationswhichhaveextremelylowlatency
(timelag).Inthecaseofadatalinkgoingdown,therewouldbenomusic.Artistryisalso
affectedbecausethemusiciansandperformerslosethedirectsenseofeachother.The
relationshipbetweenconductorandsingerissymbiotic:asupremeteamofthesinger
followingtheconductor’sbeats,buttheconductorreadingthesinger’sbodylanguageto
anticipatewheretheperformanceisgoing.Thus,havingtheorchestrainaseparatelocation
bringsrisktothisrelationship.
ThelivebroadcastTheshowisbroadcastlivetoanestimated40millionviewers,withdelayedbroadcast
internationallytomanymore.Thetechnicalconsiderationsofalivebroadcastarecomplex,
becauseitinvolvesdeliveringalivefeedtomanydifferentbroadcasterssimultaneously,
eachofwhomruntheirownadverts.Thus,thereneedstobecontinuitymaterialprovided
inthetheatreateveryadvertthatlastsexactlytherightamountoftimetomakethe
junctionwiththeendoftheadverts.Rehearsalisthusessentialtosmoothoperations.
Whywouldaperformerwanttoperformlive?
“Whathappensifshegoeswrong?”saidSeligman.Ireplied“Maybeit’sthejeopardyofpossiblygoingwrongthatmakestheperformancesoexhilarating…It’slikewalkingatightrope.Whichismoreexciting:20
centimetresor20metreshigh?”
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FromBassey’spointofview,lookingafoolonstagewouldbeamajorreputationaldisaster.
Thismightbebyforgettingwords,orsingingoutoftuneortime.Giventhecareerriskthat
involves,whywouldaperformerrunthatrisk?
Toanswerthis,it’snecessarytodefinefeaturesoflivemusicalperformancethatare
atstake.Iarguethatthefinestmusicalperformancesrequiretheperformertobeinastate
of“flow”.ThistermistakenfromthepsychologyworkofNakamuraandCsikszentmihályi
(2001).Csikszentmihályi’sdefinitionofsixprerequisitesforthestateofflow(1990)translate
excellentlytomusicalperformance:
1. Intenseandfocusedconcentrationonthepresentmoment
2. Mergingofactionandawareness
3. Alossofreflectiveself-consciousness
4. Asenseofpersonalcontroloragencyoverthesituationoractivity
5. Adistortionoftemporalexperience,one'ssubjectiveexperienceoftimeisaltered
6. Experienceoftheactivityasintrinsicallyrewarding
However,themissinglinkintheaboveisadrenaline.Buckley’sworkontheexperienceof
extremesports(e.g.2012)proposesastateof“rush”.Iarguethatthisamalgamationofflow
andadrenalinisaveryappropriatedescriptionofhowliveperformanceisexperiencedby
themusician.Itisanelevatedstate.Buckley’sdescriptionofitasbeingthe“peak”
experienceintermsofMaslow’shierarchyisveryapt.Crucially,hearguesthatextreme
sportsparticipantstakepartfortherushratherthantherisk.Idefinethisasloving
jeopardy:theveryqualitythatBasseylikes.
Iftheperformerlikestherush,whatabouttheaudience’sexperience?
Thefirstupsideofliveperformanceisthatitaddsanauthenticexhilarationtothe
performance(Cleveland,2016).Authenticityisimportanttoaudiences.Theygotosee
humanbeingsperform,notautomata.Therearetwoclearbenefits:spontaneity,and
adrenalin-fuelledemotionalenhancement.
“Evenifshesingslive,wewantyoutopre-recordtheorchestra.Weneedyoutodoitatthesamespeedsothatweknowhowlongtilltheadverts”saidproducerMichaelSeligman.“Wecan’t,”Isaid.“Shecontrolsthetempoandherpauses.Icreatethetempobyreadingherperformance.
Sometimesshe’llpause,sometimeswe’llaccelerate.Everytimeisdifferent.That’swhyshe’ssocompelling.”
SpontaneitySpontaneityinperformancecantakemanyforms.Improvisationinpopularmusic
rangesfromentirelyextemporisedmelodiesinjazz,throughmelismaticembellishmentsin
gospel,totheminutiaeofphrasingtimingcommontosingersacrossmanygenres.Bassey’s
sourceofspontaneityisthelatter,withvaryingdramaticpausesbuiltintosongs,andlong
notesheldfordifferingamountsoftime.AttheOscars,sheputanunexpecteddramatic
pauseon“it’sthekissofdeath…forMrGoldfinger”,momentarilysuspendingthephrase
longerthantheauthorhadeverexperienced,requiringtheorchestratopause.Bose(2005)
notedthatadrenalinecausesmusicianstotakeunexpectedrisks,whichaccordswithwhat
6
happenedattheendoftheperformance.Asthesongbuilttoitsclimax,weboth
spontaneouslyacceleratedtoincreasethemusicaltensionfurther,withouteverhaving
rehearseditlikethatbefore.
Sometimesspontaneitycanbederivedfromtheaudience.Ihaveexperienced
several“showstopping”momentswithBassey:whereshebegananintroduction,butthe
audienceapplaudedsowildlythattheperformancecouldnotcontinueuntiltheovation
subsided.Itisastrangemomentofpowertransfer,wherecontroloftheperformance
momentarilytransfersfromperformertoaudience.Theconductorrespondsbygettingthe
musicianstoeitherrepeataphraseorpauseuntiltheaudienceisreadyforhertocontinue.
InthecaseoftheOscars,theovationatBassey’sentrancerequiredtheintroductoryfanfare
toberepeateduntilshecouldstartsinging.
Noneofthisspontaneitywouldhavebeenpossiblewithlip-syncingororchestral
pre-recording.
Adrenaline-fuelledemotionalenhancementWehaveevolvedtosecreteadrenalinintimesofdanger,whichenablespeakperformance
usingthe“fightorflightsyndrome”(Cannon,1932).Performinginfrontofaudiences
stimulatesthebody’sproductioninthesameway(Albulescu,2009).Aswithriskstudies,
researchintoadrenalineandperformanceinvariablyinvestigatesthenegativesideofit,
hencethemoreexperientialanalysisbelow.
Fromasinger’spointofview,themostsignificantphysiologicaleffectsofadrenaline
aretheraisingofheartandbreathingrates,andmechanismsthatallowthebodytouse
musclesmoreeffectively.However,Iarguethatitisadrenaline’semotionaleffectsthat
havethemostimpactupontheaudience.Albulescu(ibid)rightlysuggeststhatitisoneof
thekeyingredientsthatgivesmusicianstheupperedge.Cleveland(2016)refersto
performanceintermsofariskthataddsan“authenticexhilaration”.Authentically
expressingfeelingsisanimportantpartofpopmusic(Dolfsma,1999),particularlyina
singerrenownedfortheemotionalintensityofherperformances.Heightenedemotions
matterbecausehersongsareinvariablyaboutthedramaoflove,life,death,betrayaland
possession.
McAllister(2012,p.6)framesthisauthenticitythroughthelensofvulnerability:an
understandablequalityforsomeoneperforminginfrontofthousandsofpeople.Combining
honestvulnerabilityandadrenalinecreatesgreatenergy,“addingintensityandelectricityto
themusic”.Sherightlynotesthatitisthepossibilityofunplannedevents,mistakes,oreven
memoryslipsthatestablishesaconnectionbetweentheaudienceandvulnerable
performer.Theapparentlyparadoxicalqualitiesofvulnerabilityandstrengthareanoted
featureinBassey’sperformances(Burgess,1998,p.1).Giventhatitisadrenalinethatfuels
thesequalities,itisofnosurprisethatperforminglivewouldshowheratherbest.
Goldstein(2006)describesadrenalineasintensifyingemotionalexperiencesandincreasing
anti-fatigueandenergisingeffects.Beingabletoharnessadrenalinecouldbeonereason
whyBasseyisstillperforminginher80’s.
Isthereisriskinhavingtoomuchadrenaline?Tounderstandthis,McAllister(2012)
referstoadrenalininmusicascreatingastateofanticipationoractivation(p.42).This
equatestothescientificterm“arousal”:atermnecessarytoexaminetheYerkes-Dodson
hypothesis(1908).Workingwithmice,theyinvestigatedthelinkbetweenarousaland(task)
performance,suchthatperformancesincreasesinlinewitharousal,butonlyuptoapoint.
Afterthis,performancedecreases,creatinganinvertedU-shape,suggestingthat
7
performancenearthetopofthearousalcurvewillbetheapogee:a“moderate”levelof
arousal(p.54).Thisareaofoptimumadrenalinehasbeenresearchedinsportsscience,but
barelytouchedinmusic.McAllister(2012)suggeststhatthreevariablesimpactuponthe
curve:thepersonalityoftheperformer,thecomplexityoftheskillbeingperformed,andthe
degreeofcognitivevsmotorcomponentsinthetask.Iftheirargumenttranslatestomusic,
performersthereforewantadrenalinetoperformattheirbest,butnottoomuchofit.
Theupsideofliveperformancetotheperformeristhusimmense.Thegladiatorialchallenge
ofthesituationbringsoutthebestintheperformer,andBasseydemonstrablyrisestothat
challenge.
Whywouldaproducerliketominimiserisk?AfullriskanalysisoftheAcademyAwardsisoutsidetheboundariesofthisessay.However,
belowisananalysisoftheriskelementsmostrelevanttoperformancerisk.Unlikeaprofit-
makingcompany,themostpertinentriskissueislossofreputation.Withtheaudience
beinginvitedAcademymembersonly,therearenoticketsalesatstake.Theoperating
incomeislargelyderivedthroughsellingthetelevisionrights.Inturn,thisisfundedby
advertising.Anyreputationallosswouldthusnotimpactimmediately,butwoulddevalue
futuretelevisionrights.Ifitdrawsfeweraudience,thelessadvertiserswillpayforadvert
slots,andthelesstheOscarscanchargefortherights.
Withreputationbeingthekeyriskchallenge,anythingthatdetractsfromthemost
spectacularHollywoodshowinexistencewouldbeariskfactor.Factorsmightincludethe:
• calibreofliveperformances
• calibreofthehost’sperformances
• entertainingnatureofthescript
• overallslicknessoftheshow
• visualdesign
Weareconcernedhereonlywiththeriskfromthesinger’sperformance.Thus,wecan
identifythefollowingrisks(indescendingorderofmagnitude):
1.RiskofcatastrophiclossofcontentWiththeorchestrabeinginonemileawayinCapitolStudios,akeyconcernisthedatalink
betweenthevenues:thus,thepathwayisduplicatedforbackuppurposes.Otherevents
couldalsobreakthetransmission.Whilstapoweroutagecouldbemitigatedbybackup
powersupply,thecomplexitiesofthesoundequipmentset-upinthestudiomeansthatitis
notpossibletoduplicatethemicrophonesandmixingdesk.Shouldthisdeskfail,thenthere
wouldbenoquickreplacementsolution.Afurtherriskisthatdatalinkbetweenstudioand
theatrecouldgodown.Tomitigatethisrisk,thedatapathwayisduplicatedtoprovide
redundancy.Hadeitherofthesecatastrophicfailureshappened,thenBasseywouldhave
potentiallybeenmaroonedonstageandtheshowstopped,whichwouldhavemadefront
pagenewsthenextdayforallthewrongreasons.
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2.RiskofperformererrorIfaperformerhadgonewrong/forgottentheirwords,thenthereputationofboth
performerandtheOscarswouldhavebeentarnished.Topreventthis,“autocue”is
providedonvariouslargetvscreensintheperformer’seyeline.However,thesuccessofthe
systemreliesuponhumanaccuracyoffollowingthesongtoscrollthetextattherightrate,
andtheperformerbeingabletoreadthewordsatadistance.
3.RiskofpoorperformanceAsingercanturninapoorperformancebecausetheysingoutoftune.Thisisnormally
causedbecausethesingercannothearthemselvesortheorchestrasufficiently.Thus,the
maindefenceagainstthisissufficienttechnicalrehearsaltimetogetthe“foldback”balance
right:eitherthrough“inear”radiomonitors,orspeakersonthestage.However,thisstill
reliesuponthesoundengineerhittingtherightpresetforthesong:anerrorthatafflicted
Bassey’sperformanceattheQueen’sDiamondJubileeConcertin2012.
Foralltheabovereasons,theproducer’sultimateriskminimisationstrategywouldbeto
pre-recordandlip-synchallperformances,withduplicatedplaybacksystemstoprevent
againstequipmentfailure.
CombiningriskandjeopardyBecausetheOscarsaimsforthebestpossibleshow,itmustallowartisteseverythingthey
needtocreatetheirbestpossibleperformances.Therefore,theproducermustunderstand
thattomaximisetheartisticcalibreoftheOscars,artistessuchasBasseyneedtotakerisks.
Assuch,thebestpossibleoutcomeforallpartieswouldbeabilateralframeworkthat
measuredtheupsideanddownsidesofrisk.Suchaframeworkcouldusethestandardrisk
metricsofimpactandlikelihood,butusenegativeandpositivefiguresforthetwosides.
ThedenouementInourcentralnarrative,whowonthebattle?Afterlengthydiscussionsthatweighedupthe
upsideanddownsiderisks,wepersuadedtheproducertoallowustoperformlive.
Thedayaftertheperformance,theheadlineintheLosAngelesTimesran“ShirleyBassey
savetheOscars”(Martens,2013).
Theauthorinvitesyoutojudgeforyourselfonthemeritsoftheliveperformance:
https://vimeo.com/60787311
ApplicationtootherfieldsHavingidentifiedanabsenceofstudyintotheupsidesofriskinliveperformance,more
researchclearlyneedstobecarriedoutinthisfield.Potentialapplicationsincludeother
adrenaline-fuelledareas:extremesportsandfinancialtrading.Otherareasinneedof
researchalsoincludeprofessionswherepeoplehavedeliberatelychosenprofessionsthat
involveadrenaline-fuelleddecisionmakingsuchasthemilitaryandemergencymedicine.
Hollywoodcouldthus,unintentionally,openupanewareaofstudyinrisk
management.
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