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{Core Analysis} BREAK THE SURFACE
THE FUTURE OF MOBILE VIDEO
Patrick Lopez
{Core Analysis}
Mobile Video Alliance
1 {Core Analysis} All rights reserved © 2013 – Public
{Core Analysis} COMPANY BACKGROUND
Company History
Founder and CEO of {Core Analysis}, I provide advisory services to technology vendors, board of directors, carriers and venture capital firms on OTT video. As an analyst, I present at influential industry forums and conferences and publish an acclaimed blog, industry articles and reports. In 2013, {Core Analysis} was exclusive advisor to Opera Software in its acquisition of Skyfire for $150m. Prior to {Core Analysis}, I have 15 years of international progressive experience in marketing, strategy and product management in the United States, Canada, Switzerland, Ireland and France. I hold a MBA in Corporate Management and a Bachelor Degree in Marketing Strategy.
Specialities Expertise: • Technical and strategic due diligence • Market Analysis • Companies evaluation and selection • Value proposition creation • Market category creation • Business case and forecast • New product introduction • Competitive analysis and market share protection / increase strategies • Product positioning and pricing • Board, investors, press and industry analysts relations t Publications and Interviews Over 100 interviews with The Wall Street Journal, Wireless Week, CNNmoney, Washington Times, In-Stat Group, Telephony, Fast Track Wireless, Wireless Week, Wireless News, NetsEdge Research, Telecom Trends, RCR Wireless News , CNN, Wireless developer network, Total Telecoms, La tribune, Global Wireless, Telecommunications International Edition, Global Mobile, CNBC Europe, Broadcast News Analyst Reports: Various analyst reports I have collaborated to or written include Deutsche Bank, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley Credit Suisse First Boston, IDC, Frost & Sullivan, Mobilestream, Stylus Communications, Yankee group, Ovum, Visiongain, Informa, Forrester Research...
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{Core Analysis} MISSION AND EXPERIENCE
{Core Analysis} provides consultancy services
on OTT video.
EXPERTISE
Technical and strategic due diligence
RFx support
Market Analysis
Vendor evaluation and selection
Technology evaluation
Business cases and forecasts
Product strategy
Pricing strategy
Competitive attack plan
EXPERIENCE
Due Diligence
Acquisitions
Turn around
Financing
Product, technology design & launches
World's first dedicated video optimization engine
World's first commercial MMSC
Sent world's first MMS on CDMA
World's first content, service and subscriber management for mobile TV
World's first messaging tiered architecture
Philips first WAP phone
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{Core Analysis} MORE BANDWIDTH, MORE VIDEO
3G vs. 4G data consumption patterns
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Users exposed to more bandwidth consume more.
Video and multimedia drive the growth.
{Core Analysis} VIDEO QOE IS THE RESULT OF MISALIGNMENT
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{Core Analysis} VIDEO IS BIG IN MOBILE
But mobile is small in video (although growing fast)
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55%
45%
Mobile networks
Video Other
90%
6% 4%
Video delivery
Fixed WiFi Cellular
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{Core Analysis} CHALLENGES
User experience
Wireless networks spectrum is a finite resource
Mobile video delivery QoE is mediocre even in LTE networks
Video is new for most network operators
Resolution from SD, to HD and now 4K stretch the limits of the networks
Adaptive bit rate can create race conditions between clients that further deteriorate experience
Network load and user experience becomes unpredictable
Network Network operators want to prioritize and optimize traffic
Deep packet inspection Parental control Policy control Transparent caching Video lossless optimization (pacing, manifest manipulation…) Video Lossy optimization (transrating, transcoding, frame dropping…)
Content
Premium content providers want to control user experience
Encrypt video (SPDY…)
Adaptive bit rate
New codecs (HEVC H265, vp9, Daala…)
Edge packaging and ad insertion
Edge caching
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{Core Analysis} THE MOBILE VIDEO SCENARIOS
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{Core Analysis} OPPORTUNITIES
Operators
Is it video (vs. browsing a video site)?
What are the available resolutions?
Is it device-appropriate (format)?
Is it premium?
Subscription or transactional?
Is it an Ad?
Content
Is it WiFi or Cellular?
Is it Edge, UMTS, HSPA, LTE, LTE A…
Is the subscription prepaid / postpaid?
Is speed or volume capped?
What is the user’s class of service (bronze, silver, gold…)
Is the cell congested?
Is the connection bad because:
The device can’t render the video
The network is congested (payload or signalling)
The subscriber is far from the antenna
The data rate is capped …
What is the delivery QoE?
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{Core Analysis} ADVERTISING IS UNDER-EXPLOITED IN MOBILE
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{Core Analysis} ADVERTISING IS UNDER-EXPLOITED IN MOBILE
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{Core Analysis} FROM PRICING TO SERVICE DIFFERENTIATION Opportunities in video management
More efficient codecs, adaptive streaming for premium content, and new bandwidth hungry formats (4K, super HD…) increase opportunities to offer differentiated video services.
Actively managing subscribers’ video experience is key:
Setting expectations baseline in term of speed, price, quality
Create quality/speed/encoding based class of service
Actively upsell classes based on location, time of day, congestion
Manage and enforce SLAs with premium content providers
Manage quality / speed / cost with free content providers
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4K LTE
Fablets
Super HD 8K
Adaptive streaming
h.265 HEVC
3D
Formats, codecs
Content providers
Devices
DASH
Smartphones
Best effort
Guaranteed fair quality
Guaranteed highest quality
Guaranteed SD high quality
Apple
TVs
Tablets
{Core Analysis} FROM PRICING TO SERVICE DIFFERENTIATION
Video necessitates management of speed, volume and quality
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Unlimited
Fair usage
Volume throttling
Hard cap Soft cap
Soft cap + throttling
Speed cap
Metered Content /
App
Congestion Location
Service class
Time
QoE class Volume class
DPI (conditional access, volume, service type…)
+ PCRF (delivery speed, rating, application)
+ optimization (encoding)
+ smart optimization
(QoE)
Video class of service management with: Gold, silver, bronze
Enterprise Congestion… scenarios
Differentiated by QoE tiers
Tariffs
Technology
{Core Analysis} POSSIBLE AREAS OF COLLABORATION
Encoding best practice
Encryption (type, level, transport, key sharing,…)
Bit rate
Resolution
Buffer size
Adaptive bit rate implementation
Business Api
Do not transcode flag
Advertising flag
Priority
Minimum quality (encoding rate) accepted
Sender pays, recipient pays, …
Postpaid / prepaid
Volume / sped cap
Roaming
Advice of quality
Advice of charge
Acceleration button…
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{Core Analysis} NEW BUSINESS MODELS START TO APPEAR
C Spire (USA) video duration charging Vodafone 2 sided model
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{Core Analysis} CONTACTS
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{Core Analysis} Patrick Lopez CEO +1 514 823 0314 [email protected]
Blog: coreanalysis1.blogspot.com Web: coreanalysis.ca News: scoop.it/t/mobile-video-ott-and-paytv Twitter: @coreanalysis
{Core Analysis} BREAK THE SURFACE
VIDEO OPTIMIZATION MARKET OVERVIEW
Patrick Lopez
{Core Analysis}
Q4 2013
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