Cabot Institute
Forests in the global carbon budget and their role in meeting mitigation
targetsJo House
University of Bristol
IPCC Lead Author: Special Report on Cliamte Change and Land, 2019 methods report on updating GHG inventory guidelines
31%11.6GtCO2/yr
EmissionsandremovalsofanthropogenicCO2 emissions(2006-2015)
Source:CDIAC;NOAA-ESRL;Houghtonetal2012;Giglio etal2013;Le Quéré et al 2016; GlobalCarbonBudget2016
26%9.7GtCO2/yr
34.1GtCO2/yr
91%
9%3.5GtCO2/yr
16.4GtCO2/yr
44%
Sources=Sinks
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
LULU
CF e
mis
sion
s (+
) and
rem
ovas
l (-),
Gt C
O 2e/
yIPCC AR5 (Houghton)
FAOSTAT 2016, land use total
This analysis
UNFCCC datasets
Grassi, House et al. (2017)Nature Climate Change, plus “reconciliation” analysis in prep
There are large differences in LULUCF emissions estimates in different IPCC streams (UNFCCC reporting and AR5)
Jo House- 4Cabot Institute
Conceptual differences between UNFCCC reports and IPCC 5th Ass. Rep (Houghton)
Grassi, House (in prep)
Indirect-human induced effects
Natural effects
Direct-human induced effects
Unmanaged land
Managed land
LULUCF(country GHGIs)
Direct-human induced effects• Land use change• Harvest and other management
Indirect-human induced effects• Climate change induced change in To,
precipitation, length of growing season • Human-induced CO2 and N fertilisation• Impact of air pollution • Changes in natural disturbances regime
Natural effects• Natural interannual variability• Natural disturbances
Indirect-human induced effects
Natural effects
Direct-human induced effects
Unmanaged land
Managed land
Net Land Use
(IPCC AR5)
Residual
Sink(IPCC AR5)
a) Effects of various factors on the forest sink
b) Where these effects occur
c) How these effects are captured in IPCC AR5 and country GHGIs
Jo House- 5Cabot Institute
Consistency between GHG INVENTORY IPCC categories and REDD-plus activities (GFOI, 2016)
IPCC Categories REDD-Plus ActivityForest land converted to other land uses
• Reducing emissions from deforestation
Forest land remaining forest land
**note“managedland”proxyUseofreferencelevelsNeedfordisagregation
• Reducing emissions from forest degradation
• Sustainable management of forests• Conservation of forest carbon stocks• Enhancement of forest carbon stocks
(within an existing forest)
Other land uses converted to forest land
• Enhancement of forest carbon stocks (through afforestation/reforestation)
Jo House- 6Cabot Institute
Contribution of land (LULUCF) sector to country’s mitigation pledges (I)NDCs
Grassi, House et al Nature Climate Change, 2017
Land sector contributes 25% to total INDC emissions reduction
The PERSPECTIVE and hence approach to calculating the LULUCF contribution can result in VERY different estimated mitigation in 2030:
• 1.2 to 1.9 GtCO2e/y GtCO2e/y compared to 2005 emissions• 0.7 to 1.4 GtCO2e/y compared to “current activity” reference scenario• 2.3 to 3.0 GtCO2e/y compared to “BAU” reference scenario• 3.0 to 3.8 GtCO2e/y based on the countries’ approach to calculating LULUCF contribution
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
LULU
CF e
mis
sion
s (+
) and
rem
oval
s (-)
, Gt C
O 2 e
/ y
LULUCF projections min - maxCountry 'BAU'Pre-INDC (current policies)Unconditional INDCConditional INDC
Year
Four scenarios
Jo House- 7Cabot Institute
Contribution of the land sector to filling the emissions gap
Roe et al (subm) NCC; Roe, et al.(2017). How Improved Land Use Can Contribute to the 1.5°CGoal of the Paris Agreement . Working Paper, ClimateFocus and the IIASA
total mitigation of ~17 GtCO2e/yr in 2050
Jo House- 8Cabot Institute
Linking REDD+ and IPPC guidelines
• According to Paris decision text, reporting under PA has to follow IPCC good practice guidance
• Using GHG inventory guidelines ensures consistency in methods, and definitions, used for estimating activities and GHG inventory emissions and removals
• Activity data from REDD+ could be useful to inventory as data input or verification
• IPCC Reporting subject to international verification process
• Transparency key• Guidelines being expanded to include use of remote
sensing products
Jo House- 9Cabot Institute
Issues for REDD+ and Reporting/accounting
• Boundaries (Space, time sector) , leakage, additionality, permanence
• Setting reference levels (transparency, credibility)
• MRV (transparency, credibility)• Avoiding double counting
Jo House- 10Cabot Institute
• Thankyou• [email protected]
- 8th Nov, 10.00-12.00, talk in the session "The role of forests in the Paris Agreement: from global to local, EU Pavillon. Bonn Zone,TallinRoom .http://ec.europa.eu/clima/events/0118/calendar_en.htm#schedule
Jo House- 11Cabot Institute
Land sector mitigation potential by country/region.
The top 25 countries with the highest mitigation potential are presented. Numbers are compiled from country mitigation potentials from Griscom et al., 2017 (Rice cultivation, Forest management, Peatland restoration, A/R, Reduced deforestation, Reduced peatland conversion, and Reduced coastal conversion), as well as calculated percentages of FAOSTAT emissions data (Enteric fermentation, Manure Management, Synthetic Fertilizer and Agriculture soil carbon enhangement(Table S4 in Supplementary Information)
