California Energy Commission

California Secure Transportation Energy Partnership (CalSTEP)

Overview

Advanced Transportation Technologies

James D. Boyd

California Energy Commission February 1, 2006

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California Energy Commission

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The Heart of the Problem

15

20

25

30

Bil

lio

n G

allo

ns

Projected Supply for CaliforniaWith No Change in Imports

Demand WithoutGHG Regulations

Demand WithGHG Regulations

3.0 billiongallons

5.8 billiongallons

ProjectedIncrease inImports

California Energy Commission

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2003 Energy Report• Reduce gasoline and diesel demand to 15%

below 2003 levels by 2020

• Double combined fuel economy requirements of new cars and light trucks to 40 mpg

• Increase use of non-petroleum fuels to 20% by 2020 and 30% by 2030

• Increase fuel cell vehicles to 10 percent of new sales by 2020 and 20 percent by 2030

California Energy Commission

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2005 Energy Report• Provide adequate supplies of transportation

fuels to meet the needs of California’s growing economy.

• Expand or augment the supply fuels

- use gasoline and diesel fuels efficiently

- expand the use of alternative and non-conventional fuels

- provide fuel choices to California motorists

- increase transportation system efficiency through more intelligent land-use planning and expanded use of innovative mass transit

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What is CalSTEP?

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CalSTEP Overview

The California Secure Transportation Energy Partnership is a diverse and

significant coalition of key stakeholders from the private, public, and non-governmental sectors who will work together to develop and implement a viable game plan to

secure California’s transportation energy future

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The CalSTEP Declaration

In the absence of any significant federal leadership, California can secure its own transportation energy future by

2020. This future will create more wealth and economic opportunity and

be better for the environment.

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If California Leads Others Will Follow: A De Facto National Energy Policy

• CA is the only state with the legal authority to establish its own air quality standards and rules

• 7 states have chosen to adopt the California Low Emission Vehicle (LEV) program

• Approximately 10 states have elected to adopt the CA GHG emission control laws

• A de facto national standard created by the states

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CalSTEP Committee Members

• James D. Boyd, Commissioner, California Energy Commission

• George Schultz, Distinguish Fellow, Hoover Institute

• Dr. Jim Sweeney, Professor of Management Science and Engineering, Stanford University

• Lars Erik Lunden, Vice President, Volvo Car Corporation

• Tim Carmichael, President and Chief Executive Officer, Coalition for Clean Air

• Bill Jones, Chairman, Pacific Ethanol

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• Dr. S.M. Shahed, Vice President, Advanced Technology, Honeywell Turbo

• Maurice Gunderson, Managing Director, Nth Power• Lee Stein, Chairman, Stein & Stein (Investment Co.)• Fred Keeley, Treasurer-Tax Collector, County of Santa

Cruz (former Speaker Pro Tempore, State Assembly)• Doug Linney, President, The Next Generation• John Boesel, President and CEO, CALSTART

CalSTEP Committee Members

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National Commission on Energy Policy & CalSTEP

Similarities:• Prominent and diverse group of

stakeholders• Realistic business oriented plans• Both effective mechanisms for

change

Distinctions:• CalSTEP focuses on only

transportation side of equation• State vs. national focus

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Multiple Solutions

• There is no silver bullet

• CalSTEP recognizes the need to transition from a mono to a poly-fuel future, the need for greater vehicle efficiency, and better transit/smart growth policies and practices

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Defining The Target: CalSTEP Goals = AB 2076 Goals

• In 2003 California used 18.1 billion gasoline gallon equivalents (GGE) of on-road gasoline and diesel

• Target is a 15% reduction from 2003 demand to 15.4 billion GGE per year by 2020

• Projected business-as-usual demand in 2025 is 23.8 billion GGE

• Required reduction from business-as-usual case to meet target would be 8.4 billion GGE

Target: 15.4

Required Reduction: 8.4

AB 2076 Report Goals: 15% less oil consumed

and 20% alternative fuels in 2020

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Some Possible Options

Benefit from Sample Options In (Billions GGE/year)

• Full Hybrids: 3.03• GHG standard: 2.82• Mild Hybrids: 2.29• Truck Standards: 2.30• NG Trucks: 1.72• Synthetic Fuels: 1.64• Light-duty Diesels: 1.30• E-85: 1.00• B-20: 0.99• Improved Maintenance: 0.63• E-10: 0.48• Truck-Stop Electrification: 0.34

Options from CEC

Required reduction is 8.40 BGGE

•Sum of slices needed = 8.40

•Partial options can help

•Sample options from CEC

•Other options should be considered

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Desired Outcomes

• Develop a viable, pro-business plan that will demonstrate a state can achieve its own energy security

• Educate state’s leaders on need for strong action to address transportation energy crisis

• Sell and implement plan in California

• Work with other states to develop individual plans

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