CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION California’s Efforts In Addressing New Electricity Markets Asia...

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION

California’s Efforts In Addressing New Electricity Markets

Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC)Expert Group on New and Renewable

Energy Technologies

Terry Surles, Director

Technology Systems Division

California Energy Commission


GDP (2000)

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000

U.S.

Japan

Germany

U.K.

CALIFORNIA

France

China

Italy

Canada

Brazil

Mexico

GDP (2000) [trillions of U.S. dollars]

9,900

GDP (2000)


California Energy Perspective

Previous system wasn’t broken Market power became concentrated

profits up by selling more for less

No price signal for end users Loss of momentum on demand side management

10 GWh saved by early 1990’s Restructuring derails utility DSM

1.4 GW of renewable cancelled “No need” Price was above cost to utilities

Results Demand up 0.7%, price up 130% Blackouts with 28 GW laid, with ~50 GW capacity


Production of Electricity by Source - 1999

California U.S.

Imports

Imports

NG-15.5

Hydro- 32.6

Coal- 51.9

Wind/solar- 1.6

Geothermal - 4.8

Biomass/waste- 2.0

Oil- 0.2

Natural Gas

Hydro

18

31

15

Nuclear

Coal

15

13

276 TWh 3,678 TWh

Coal51

Nuclear 20

Hydro8.5Nat Gas15

Wind/solar-0.1

Geothermal- 0.4

Imports- 1.2

Oil- 3.2


CA Energy Use by Sector (1999)

Commercial11%

Residential13%

Industrial27% Transportation

Industrial

Residential

Commercial

Transportation

49%


Peak Demand is Increasing Faster than Newly Installed Capacity

Me g

a wa t

t s

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Peak Load Growth

Capacity Additions


0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

43,509 MW

Contribution to ISO Peak DemandAugust 16, 2001 (MW)

Commercial AC

Commercial Lighting

Residential AC

Other


0

50

100

150

200

1998 1999 2000 2001

Stage 3

Stage 2

Stage 1

California Stage 1-3 AlertNumber of Statewide Electricity Alerts by Year

Rising Peak Demand Threatens Reliability and Power Quality


40000

45000

50000

55000

60000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Recession

Weather

Demand Reduction and Weather

Peak Demand

Influenced by Economics and Weather


-16.0% -14.0% -12.0% -10.0% -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0%

JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

Percent Change 2000 to 2001

AcAd

Summer 2001 Peak Demand Reductions

Adjusted for weather and Economic Growth

Actual


Factors Contributing to Demand Reduction

- Electricity price increases

- Public awareness of crisis and voluntary conservation

- Demand reduction programs, 20/20 Program

- State and regional economic recession

- Increased supply


Next Steps Diffuse excess market power Address potential for supply overshoot Change buyer’s mentality

Education - it’s more than flicking a switch Take control - it’s not a tax

Develop alternatives Demand side Supply side Enabling technologies


Public Interest Energy Research (PIER)


California has Established a $62M/yr Public Interest Energy Research Program (PIER)

California’s Energy Future

Economy:Affordable Solutions

Quality:Reliable and

AvailableEnvironment:

Protect and Enhance


Vision Statement

The future electrical system of California will provide a clean, abundant and affordable supply

tailored to the needs of “smart”, efficient customers and will be the best in the nation.

Tailored, clean, abundant, affordable supply

Smart, efficient customers


Our R&D Program Must Address Future Market Scenarios

Regulated

De-regulated

De-centralizedCentralized

Status Quo • New energy systems

• Same players

Supermarket of Choices

• Same energy systems

• New players


Proo

f of C

once

ptTe

chn.

Dev

elop

.D

emon

stra

tions

Self

Sust

aini

ng

Mar

ket

Val

ley

of D

eath

PIER Program (RD&D)RenewableEnergyProgram

Inte

rnat

. M

arke

t

ExportProgram

Technology Development ContinuumFrom Innovation to Market

Cer

tific

atio

n

New

Ene

rgy

Idea


Funded Program Areas to December 2001 (in millions)

Supply $82Renewables, EPAG

Demand $50Buildings, Ind/Ag/Water

$48Strategic, Environmental


PIER Objectives: Meeting Ratepayers Needs

Tangible products reach market legislative justification

Prepare for the next crisis end use energy efficiency

Distributed energy sources supply alternatives demand side management enabling systems

externalities (environment, resource, security), climate change


Berkeley Lamp

Technical Success: Validated energy savingsAverage Daily Energy Use Before and After Berkeley Lamp Installation

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

12:0

0 A

M

2:05

AM

4:10

AM

6:15

AM

8:20

AM

10:2

5 A

M

12:3

0 P

M

2:35

PM

4:40

PM

6:45

PM

8:50

PM

10:5

5 P

M

Po

we

r (

W)

Before RetrofitAfter Retrofit


PIER Buildings Program HighlightsNight Breeze

Provides ventilation and cooling at night, reducing or eliminating the need for air conditioning during the day


High Performance Fume Hood

• reduces airflow and energy requirements by 30-50%

• flow reduction from each hood cuts energy costs by $1000/yr

• maintains or enhances worker safety

• ASHRAE standard test achieved containment with 70% flow reduction

• with 30,000 hoods in state, the new Hood could save about 360 million kWh/yr, totaling nearly $30 million


PowerLight Corporation Building-Integrated PV Roof System


The Wind Turbine Company

Design, develop and demonstrate a utility-scale wind turbine

Horizontal axis, two-blade, downwind design

Prototype developed for PIER and tested at NREL rated at 250 kW

Commercial prototype demonstration sited at the Fairmont Reservoir in LADWP territory for a 500 kW - scaled up to 750 kW - wind turbine demonstration to begin in October 2001

Goal is to produce electricity $0.035 cents per kWh per 100 unit wind farms with wind resources 15 mph.


Technical Support for DG Interconnection Standards

Reduces average cost of interconnection fees to consumers by 37%

Supports Rule 21 by resolving technical safety issues

Establishes technology & size neutral review process

Identified testing and certification requirements

Enables insertion of new generation (e.g. renewables) into the grid


Real Time Transmission Line Monitoring/Rating

• tension monitoring increases transmission capabilities by 15-30%

• highly accurate - measures line sagging to within 1-3 inches

• increased safety - provides the actual real time rating and provides alarms of impending clearance violations

• system 1-3 were built for utilities in Virginia, Colorado and Finland

• 200th system was sold on 8/4/00. The systems are in use on five continents by 70 utilities.


Alzeta Gas Turbine Semi-Radiant Burner (GTSB)

• PIER is helping develop low- or no- emission electric production methods, including gas turbines for use in DG

•Alzeta’s GTSB combustors successfully demonstrated simultaneous readings 2 ppm emissions of NOx, CO and unburned hydrocarbon on gaseous fuels during prototype testing.

• Goal is to lower cost of emission reduction by $100/kW for smaller facilities

•Alzeta has paid $24,464 to date in royalty repayment to the PIER Program based on direct sales and licensing of the product


California’s

RENEWABLE ENERGY PROGRAM


Renewable Generation Issues

• Developers of new renewable energy projects currently face a high degree of uncertainty

• The biggest impediment to further development of renewable projects is the lack of a stable market with buyers willing to provide adequate price certainty


Renewable Energy Program OBJECTIVES

To facilitate the development of a self-sustaining, consumer-driven renewable energy market in California.

To encourage market-based development of new and emerging renewable resources.

To maintain the benefits and diversity of the renewable energy industry and move towards market competitiveness with the broader electricity industry.


$540 million in program funding (1998 - 2002) Market-based support for supply and demand

sides of renewable energy market by providing: Production incentives for existing and new

renewable electricity generation Capital cost buydowns to install on-site distributed

generation systems Rebates to customers who purchase renewable

electricity Consumer education

$540 million in program funding (1998 - 2002) Market-based support for supply and demand

sides of renewable energy market by providing: Production incentives for existing and new

renewable electricity generation Capital cost buydowns to install on-site distributed

generation systems Rebates to customers who purchase renewable

electricity Consumer education

California’s

Renewable Energy ProgramAt a Glance

California’s

Renewable Energy ProgramAt a Glance


Renewable Generation By Type

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

YEAR

GW

H

SOLARWIND

BIOMASS

GEOTHERMAL


Investment Plan

Renewable Energy Consumption Targets

Investment Plan

Renewable Energy Consumption Targets

2002 2004 2006

Emerging - - <1%

Existing 12% 12% 12%

New 1% 3% 5%

Total 13% 15% 17%


Investment Plan

Renewables Generation GoalsInvestment Plan

Renewables Generation Goals

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

YEAR

GW

H

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

YEAR

GW

H


California Energy CommissionEnergy Technology Export Program

Role: Promote California Energy Technology Exports

Results: Stimulated Over $400 Million in Export Sales


Energy Technology Export Program Focus

Assist Small and Mid - Size Companies Develop International Energy Projects

(<$100Million in Capital Costs/Project) Feature Clean Combustion Power Plants,

Energy Efficiency, Industrial Cogeneration, Renewable Energy

Asia and Latin America Concentration


Recent Projects

Wind Power Projects (16.5 MW) - Greece Clean Coal (CFB) Power Plants - China Industrial Cogeneration (12 MW) - Thailand Hotel Energy Efficiency Retrofits - Mexico

and Panama Geothermal Power Plant (5 MW) - Vanuatu Electric Bicycle Kits (2,000 Units) - China


Program Functions Identify/Evaluate

Export Opportunities Target Markets Scouting Missions

Identify & Qualify Projects Energy Audits of C/I

Sector Projects Matchmaking

Conferences & Trade Missions

Project Feasibility Funding International Energy

Fund Facilitate Project

Development Company Directory Technical Advice Financing Advice

Advice to Foreign Governments


Market Niches

Utility-Scale, Grid-Connected Power Generation

Commercial Building Energy Efficiency Retrofits

Industrial Cogeneration/Onsite Power Off-Grid or Mini-Grid Power Systems


Pre-Investment: CEC Intl Energy Fund Pre-Development: E&Co./Rockefeller

Foundation/Venture Capital Project Financing/Project Development:

EXIM Bank: >$10 Million IFC/REEEF: 25% Debt/Equity Equity Investors/Equity Funds Multi-Lateral Banks: World Bank, ADB Dresdner Bank

International Project Financing


CO2 per capita

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

Brazil

China

Mexico

France

Italy

Japan

U.K.

Germany

CALIFORNIA

Canada

U.S.

CO2 emissions (1999) per capita [metric ton C]

CO2 per Capita (1999)


CO2 / GDP (1999)

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

Japan

France

CALIFORNIA

Italy

U.K.

Germany

Brazil

U.S.

Mexico

Canada

China

CO2 emissions (1999) / GDP (1999) [g C / US $]

CO2 / GDP (1999)


Factors Contributing to Demand Reduction

Electricity price increases Public awareness of crisis and voluntary

conservation Demand reduction program, 20/20 program State and regional economic recession Increased supply


Next Steps:

Diffuse excess market power Address potential for supply overshoot Change buyer’s mentality

Education - it’s more than flicking a switch Take control - it’s not a tax

Develop alternatives end-use energy efficiency distributed energy resources enabling technologies for DSM and real-time pricing

Date post:	03-Jan-2016
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CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION California’s Efforts In Addressing New Electricity Markets Asia...

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